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The black exodus
Wednesday, Feb 13, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller * Too often, the media’s focus on the very real problem of people migrating out of Illinois centers around middle to upper class white folks who are angry at the government. That focus creates a narrative that Illinois has to avoid upsetting those people or the exodus will only get worse. Progressive income tax? People are going to leave. Higher minimum wage? People are going to leave. But that narrative ignores this issue…
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- Galactic cupcake - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 9:00 am:
Are these out of state migrations or are these folks migrating to other (more white) IL communities?
- MortonPunkinChuckin - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 9:05 am:
Everyone cares about local crime, home values, property taxes, local education opportunities for their kids.
- Downstate - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 9:06 am:
Too many on this board have been saying “good riddance” as I’ve noted the out-migration of job creators. I look forward to them weighing in on this as well.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 9:13 am:
–But that narrative ignores this issue…–
Willfully ignores the issue, and completely misrepresents who are leaving and the reasons why to serve some unsupported ideological zealotry.
The tronc edit types solicit anecdotes on social media to back their pre-cooked conclusions while failing to address that the net migration from Illinois is largely lower-income black people.
People aren’t leaving Austin and Englewood because of high taxes and regulation, but because of violence and lack of public and private investments in those neighborhoods.
But, then again, those neighborhoods ain’t exactly top of list when it comes to the troncs desired demographics.
https://budgetblog.ctbaonline.org/who-leaves-illinois-and-where-do-they-go-55779062e9ea
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 9:17 am:
It would be helpful to know how these stats were derived. It notes “exodus” numbers, but as presented, it appears there were only losses…is that correct? Did other ethnic group migrate in to the ‘loss’ areas?
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 9:18 am:
Black people are leaving due to taxes and a racist, segregated legacy. They are moving to low tax states with better opportunities.
- Tom - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 9:22 am:
It’s real. I would hate to be the person drawing new African American legislative districts. They are going to have to employ some real skills to keep them majority minority.
- A guy - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 9:48 am:
Wonder if any exodus has resulted in people moving to Naperville, given recent observations? /s
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 9:57 am:
Hard to blame people for leaving when the areas they are leaving face the problems of poverty and everything that goes with it like crime and a lack of opportunities. Interesting that some of the places they are headed to are in the South, where opportunities and a better climate are drawing people back to where many of their ancestors left in the first place.
- chains no more - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 10:03 am:
2017, and 2018 will be interesting. There is a new term for this phenomenon, blexit.
Blacks have realized that Chicago is extremely racist, and has been for a long time. Not only is there rampant entrenched racism in Chicago, but many in Chicago love to label downstate Illinoisans as racists. It’s called projection.
Blexit is real, and it’s a brilliant for those who are breaking the chains.
- Smalls - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 10:04 am:
This is a little of an apples and oranges comparison, comparing black people moving out of a specific neighborhood in Chicago against people moving out of the state of Illinois. It is possible that everyone of those black people that moved out of a Chicago neighborhood moved to a different Chicago neighborhood that isn’t one of the 20 listed, or to another city in Illinois. It is also possible many of them left the state. We don’t know from this data, although that data may be out there.
- Roman - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 10:06 am:
== The tronc edit types solicit anecdotes on social media to back their pre-cooked conclusions ==
And they ignore all the construction cranes visible outside their office windows that are building condos and apartments for the upper-middle class white folks that are supposedly fleeing.
- lakeside - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 10:09 am:
Side point, but glad to see Eve on the blog. If you want to make your life better in every way (except if you like the magazine Nintendo Power), follow Eve Ewing on twitter. She is joy and facts and poetry. Also her podcast, Bughouse Square, revisits Studs Terkel interviews adding contemporary discussions and context, and it’s great.
- muon - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 10:15 am:
Anonymous 9:17: Chicago lost about 200,000 from 2000 to 2010, and has gained about 10% of that back so far this decade. If you compare the columns for the black population in 2000 and 2010, you’ll see that most of the city’s loss that decade was due to the loss of black population. Losses in black population this decade have been offset by new residents, primarily in the neighborhoods ringing the Loop.
Tom, you are correct that there will be some redistricting challenges for the black community. The biggest challenge will probably be what to do about the three congressional districts. The loss of a seat means larger populations per district. The loss of black population in the city and state will probably mean that three black-majority congressional districts can’t be drawn after 2020.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 10:17 am:
–Too many on this board have been saying “good riddance” as I’ve noted the out-migration of job creators.–
You have? Please, post your data and sources, again.
- Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 10:27 am:
==Not only is there rampant entrenched racism in Chicago,==
Yes there are racists in Chicago.
== but many in Chicago love to label downstate Illinoisans as racists.==
Really? How many?
- dbk - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 10:46 am:
Note to all: I went looking for that tweet as I follow Eve; she took it down for the reasons noted above by one commenter (doesn’t account for moves to other neighborhoods in Chicago itself).
But people had already responded - a couple noted that they were just tired of it all.
Black outmigration is related to loss of middle-class industrial jobs, to scarcity of affordable housing, to schools, to social services (i.e. lack thereof, more or less in this order but the causes are necessarily interconnected.
Blacks have left Chicago for: near west/south suburbs that abandoned by working class whites; northwest Indiana (chiefly Gary); downstate (availability of section 8 housing), and for big cities in the South, primarily Atlanta and Houston. Two of these categories (Indiana, large Southern cities) of course contribute to overall outmigration from the state.
I’ve read two or three in-depth articles on this topic in the past couple years, will try to find them and post later in the discussion.
- A 400lb. Guy on a bed - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 10:55 am:
They can’t be leaving because of the great weather here.
- Roman - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 11:17 am:
There are lots of layers to black population loss in Chicago and a small measure of it is good news. Upwardly mobile African-Americans have moved to suburban subdivisions that they were previously shut out of, following the traditional city-to-suburbs migration trend that racist housing policies blocked them from for generations. This is not nearly enough of this and it is not the main driver of Chicago’s black population loss, but it is a contributing factor.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 11:21 am:
–There is a new term for this phenomenon, blexit.–
It’s not a new term, and has origins in something completely different.
https://www.blexitmn.org/clarification_for_current_and_new_members?splash=1
- Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 12:11 pm:
A few weeks ago on another post, I looked at 5 Cook Southland townships where out-migrating Chicagoans might be going. Alas, only Rich Township seemed to be gaining numbers, with the other 4 (Bloom, Thornton, Bremen and Worth) either holding steady or declining. Wikipedia Brown would do well to look at the western and southern Cook townships, and those just over the line, to see how much Chicago black out-migration is being caught by the suburbs or being bypassed completely. It’s a tougher study to follow what happens to people when they move as opposed to just counting the gains and losses, but it will tell a better story.
- anon2 - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 12:25 pm:
Black migrants are mainly going to the South, such as Atlanta, not to the Chicago suburbs. https://www.chicagoreader.com/chicago/chicagos-black-exodus/Content?oid=66920657
- low level - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 1:05 pm:
In the meantime, Downtown and north and south loop high to very high income earners of all races has gone up dramatically. Young people and empty nesters in particular who love being close to all the cultural attractions and lakefront.
- Politix - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 1:32 pm:
Crime data indicate those living in most of those neighborhoods experience higher rates of exposure to violence than those living in other parts of the city. Doubt that’s any coincidence.
- Prairie State - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 2:13 pm:
How much did the CTA’s Plan for Transformation drive the loss of black population in neighborhoods like the near north and near west sides? I had a hard time (quickly) finding numbers of CHA residents who left the city and/or the state. Wonder if some of the commenters here have a handle on that factor …
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 2:35 pm:
–In the meantime, Downtown and north and south loop high to very high income earners of all races has gone up dramatically.–
That’s been the game plan since the CHA towers started coming down.
There’s no mystery that the bedrock-establishment troncs can yammer on-and-on about population loss while willfully failing to acknowledge where it’s actually occurring.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 3:28 pm:
>== but many in Chicago love to label downstate Illinoisans as racists.==
>Really? How many?
Well, I think in my circles, people correlate racism and Trump votes; they consider that Chicago and even Cook Co. voted overwhelmingly against Trump, and judge downstate accordingly.
There are huge flaws in both sides of that line of logic. But it is the mindset of many people in Chicago political circles.
- statehoss - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 3:42 pm:
(last post was from me - forgot to fill in my moniker)
>Crime data indicate those living in most of those neighborhoods experience higher rates of exposure to violence than those living in other parts of the city. Doubt that’s any coincidence.
That’s true. But crime, at least violent crime, was way, way down from 2003 to 2013, yet that’s the time period when the bulk of the out-migration from the city happened. Some of it was to Atlanta, etc., but a lot was to places like Crete, Romeoville and Bolingbrook, as well as south suburban areas with a longer history of large African American populations.
The other thing is that these numbers put the recent spike in violent crime in sharper focus. Statistically the overwhelming number of murder victims in Chicago are African American. That’s been true for decades, and certainly through the period in this analysis.
Today, murder stats are at a midlevel between the failure of the late 90’s/early 2000s and the success and relative peace of the era ushered in by Police Superintendent Phil Cline.
However, most people have thought about the rate using Chicago’s overall population as the denominator. The more meaningful denominator, given that 85% of victims are black, is not the overall population, but the African American population.
If the city’s black population is down by 25%, then the murder rate expressed in incidents per 100,000 may be equal to or higher than what it was in those horrible days before the change in police tactics in 2003.
That’s a really grim thought.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 4:36 pm:
Very good point statehoss. Homicide rates for African Americans is extremely high in Chicago. Baltimore and Detroit high. Hispanics, whites and Asians have low to nelgiglble homicide rates.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 13, 19 @ 6:17 pm:
–Hispanics, whites and Asians have low to nelgiglble homicide rates.–
Always great to get the insight from the uninformed anonymous poster.
The homicide rate among white Americans has spiked since 2013, largely attributed to their disproportionate share of opioid addiction.
People kill each other outside of the big cities, too.
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/01/the-white-and-black-murder-rates-are-both-rising.html
- Da Big Bad Wolf - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 6:47 am:
==Well, I think in my circles…==
You can’t extrapolate “your circles” to 10 million metro area people, sorry.
It all comes down to “at the church potluck, I heard a lady say all downstate people were racists. The person she was talking to was nodding and smiling, because he wanted to take an extra brownie.”
- Anonymous - Thursday, Feb 14, 19 @ 8:13 am:
I was referring to Chicago homicide rates.