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Who’s the favorite in the Lipinski vs. Newman rematch?

Wednesday, Apr 17, 2019

* Edward McClelland on the Democratic primary rematch between Congressman Dan Lipinski and Marie Newman

Newman didn’t exactly lose with grace in 2018. She refused to concede to Lipinski on election night, saying, “I would like Mr. Lipinski to have a very painful evening.”

She then said her family would never forgive Lipinski because, she claimed, his campaign had sent out texts accusing her of running an abortion clinic and trying to defund the Little Sisters of the Poor.

Despite that, Newman has a better chance this time than she did in 2018. Here in Illinois, the 2020 congressional primary will be held on the same day as the presidential primary, which means the supporters of Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg — candidates whose philosophies are inimical to Lipinski’s — are going to show up at the polls.

Yes, she was a sore loser, but she had her reasons.

* Newman seems to understand her 2018 campaign didn’t do nearly enough in the city

“What we’ve done over the last year is we have really built out our ward structure much more significantly,” Newman told me.

“And it’s very evident when I go there now. I think that’s one of the things that we needed to do at the end (of the 2018 race.) It was clear that I needed to do more, be in the wards more.” Indeed, Newman worked for aldermanic candidates in the 2019 elections in the 14th, 15th and 22nd Wards.

The 14th Ward has a new state Representative tied to Chuy Garcia who could help a lot there. There aren’t many votes in 15 and 22 within the 3rd CD, but every vote counts.

* However

What may complicate the road ahead for Newman is the entry this week of another Democrat in the contest — a political unknown, Abe Matthew, who will compete with her for the progressive vote.

If Matthew, 32, a personal-injury lawyer who lives in Bridgeport, gets any kind of a campaign going — which he does not have now — it could guarantee a win for Lipinski.

The general rule for primary opponents is the more the merrier.

* Interesting

[The Brookings Institution conducted an exit poll and] concluded nearly one in five Lipinski voters also cast ballots for Trump.

We’ll see if they take Democratic ballots in a presidential year.

* Will this make any difference at all? Maybe if Gillibrand’s campaign survives until next March

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York is endorsing a Democratic challenger to Rep. Daniel Lipinski (D-Ill.), making her the first presidential contender to wade into a down-ballot Democratic primary.

At a Democratic Party event in Chicago, Gillibrand endorsed Marie Newman, a liberal activist who narrowly lost to Lipinski in 2018.

Your own thoughts?

- Posted by Rich Miller        

50 Comments
  1. - Colin O'Scopy - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 11:27 am:

    Newman did well last time around, in spite of her self. She didn’t work very hard, in the wards or in the townships. She seemed to enjoy the celebrity more than the work (think Madigan’s mantra: knock on doors, knock on doors, and when you’re done, knock on some more doors).

    What this race needs is a moderate female to run. And I am looking at you, Rep. Kelly Burke. She’d mop the floor with Lipper.


  2. - Room for Us - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 11:32 am:

    Colin O’Scopy

    Lipinski not Lipper

    If by moderate you mean not Pro-life, you are wrong. There are still a lot of Pro-life Democrats


  3. - Colin O'Scopy - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 11:34 am:

    =If by moderate you mean not Pro-life, you are wrong=

    Who said anything about moderate meaning “pro-life”? I sure didn’t.

    And, yes, he’s Lipper to me.


  4. - Illinois Resident - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 11:34 am:

    No we don’t need a moderate running. We need a progressive. Newman only lost by 2.2% of the vote last time. This time she will win.


  5. - Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 11:38 am:

    The complicating factor is it is not just a one on one rematch. It’s at least a three way race, and the more the merrier from Lipinski’s perspective, as you have to imagine they all will be left of him.


  6. - Colin O'Scopy - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 11:44 am:

    =It’s at least a three way race=

    Sure it’s possible that this race will see multiple candidates. Little Lipper and his dad, the Big Lipper, will not make the same mistake twice by having Dan face a woman mano-e-mano. But we’re a far cry from candidate filings, with the requisite number of signatures to appear on the ballot, just sayin.


  7. - Unpopular - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 11:47 am:

    Every Republican organization in the state should send money to the Lipinski organization. He is a moderate voice, in an ocean of far left views.


  8. - Powdered Whig - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 11:48 am:

    === No we don’t need a moderate running. We need a progressive. ===

    Do you even live in the District?


  9. - Fav human - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 11:49 am:

    A lawyer who wants to advertise his business is running. Am I the only person who smells the fingerprints of madigan on this?

    Also I think the percentage of new people voting versus 2018 is in Lips favor, not hers.

    I don’t know that any Democrat would have reason to pull any ballot other than D in the 2020 primary. In that area might not be a lot of point in pulling an R.

    Even if she does win,
    I’ll bet Madigan eliminates the seat in redistricting. It would make everything else a lot easier, including keeping the various minority districts he’ll need to protect. Not to mention excellent revenge for beating his guy…


  10. - Illinois Resident - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 11:52 am:

    Powdered Whig - She only lost by 2.2% of the vote in a non presidential year. By the way, what policies do moderates have that actually help average americans?


  11. - A Non E. Moose - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 11:53 am:

    Newman was late to the game with getting a field program set up in 2018 and lost by a field margin. She will hire more organizers at an earlier point this time around, and will be the favorite to win.


  12. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 11:53 am:

    –[The Brookings Institution conducted an exit poll and] concluded nearly one in five Lipinski voters also cast ballots for Trump.–

    I would have thought higher. Maybe those other Trump voters liked the GOP candidate.

    Bustos said the DCCC is going all out to protect incumbents in primaries. Will be interesting to see how that applies to the Lil’ Lipper.


  13. - Anon - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 11:55 am:

    Newman is the favorite. Lipinski is already getting out-raised. And as the most recent election just showed, the left in this city is fired up and ready for change, and now that this race is on more people’s radars, we’ll have more time to build momentum and enthusiasm. Plus, Newman only gets more popular as more people get familiar with her, while Lipinski’s anti-choice, anti-LGBT views are a relic that will only become more toxic as Newman puts him on blast.


  14. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 11:59 am:

    ===Not to mention excellent revenge for beating his guy===

    While MJM supported him last time, his “guy” is the father, not the son.


  15. - Chunga - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:06 pm:

    Age and treachery beats Youth and exuberance hands down every time. Advantage Lipinski.


  16. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:08 pm:

    ==Maybe those other Trump voters liked the GOP candidate.==
    Ouch.


  17. - Illinois Resident - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:09 pm:

    Chunga - Times are changing.


  18. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:13 pm:

    –Every Republican organization in the state should send money to the Lipinski organization.–

    Um, maybe even run someone against the Nazi in the GOP primary?


  19. - Grand Avenue - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:18 pm:

    There will probably be more candidates running, because they saw Lipinski’s narrow win and see that there is blood in the water. Ironically, those extra candidates might be what gets Lipinski re-elected.


  20. - Regular democrat - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:21 pm:

    Lipinski should get out now in the district and work the doors show he not assuming anything.


  21. - lake county democrat - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:22 pm:

    –Abe Matthew–

    Why do I suspect this guy is going to run against Newman more than Lipinski?


  22. - Because I said so.... - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:24 pm:

    Maybe Newman will run a better campaign this time around. She was going for the spotlight endorsements, Gloria Steinem etc. and those of female legislators outside her district. I don’t know if she even reached out to legislators in the district last time.


  23. - Grand Avenue - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:25 pm:

    Then again, because Lipinski ran a negative campaign against Newman last time, and only won 51-49, so some percentage of Lipinski’s voters might not be that enamored of Lipinski but preferred him to Newman. If there are more candidates, they might take from the Lipinski vote more than they take from the Newman vote.


  24. - Chunga - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:25 pm:

    Illinois resident. Times are always changing. But unless you have delt with the southwest side wards in an election,
    Don’t hold your breath.


  25. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:28 pm:

    ==I’ll bet Madigan eliminates the seat in redistricting.==

    The legislature has given the congressional delegation significant leeway in making these determinations, and it’s usually the most junior member who gets axed, so it would not be surprising or necessarily revenge if a first term Newman saw the 3rd District get largely re-drawn. That said, the population loss in the state is downstate, not south Cook, and even if you chop the 3rd to shore up neighboring minority districts, there’s still going to be a lean-D or better district left for Newman to represent.


  26. - Illinois Resident - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:28 pm:

    Chunga - I am not saying it will be easy. Just saying that she only lost by 2.2% last time. And you think it is impossible in a presidential year?


  27. - Powdered Whig - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:36 pm:

    === Powdered Whig - She only lost by 2.2% of the vote in a non presidential year. By the way, what policies do moderates have that actually help average americans? ===

    That doesn’t answer my question. Do you actually live in the district? Because if you don’t please do not speak to what the District “needs”. Thanks.


  28. - Illinois Resident - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:37 pm:

    Powdered Whig - I can speak to whatever I want. Thanks


  29. - Chunga - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:42 pm:

    What powdered wig said. If you haven’t worked elections in that area you don’t understand how conservative of an area it is. It’s very Reagan Democrat.


  30. - Illinois Resident - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:43 pm:

    So conservative that Newman almost won.


  31. - Shytown - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:44 pm:

    I have to disagree about her being a sore loser. His campaign and his external operatives played some pretty brutal, personal attacks on her and her family. It was a tough loss and she’s going to be a better candidate this time around because of it. This other guy will never get any traction.


  32. - Chunga - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:50 pm:

    Illinois resident. It’s an election not thermonuclear war. Close is as good as pounded. A loss is a loss


  33. - Illinois Resident - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 12:52 pm:

    Chunga - I get it. You are moderate. But progressives are coming.


  34. - Soo... - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 1:15 pm:

    Illinois Resident

    “I get it. You are moderate. But progressives are coming.”

    Soo… hate too break it to you but IL 3 isn’t the north or west side of the City.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the districts rating lean D. The GOP can only get Nazis and nobody’s to run because moderates and conservative leaning people in that district actually vote for the lipper.

    Progressives can come all they want, but IL 3 becomes competitive again for the GOP if a progressive wins that primary. And sorry to burst your bubble IL resident, but when 1 in 5 vote for Lipinski and Trump, that’s a lot of votes which these oncoming progressive lose out on.


  35. - Fav human - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 1:23 pm:

    I can just see the mailers now ” do you want New York choosing your Congressman?”


  36. - Seats - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 1:28 pm:

    Will be harder for her as the progressive vote gets split some this time in a race with little room for missed votes.


  37. - A guy - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 1:31 pm:

    ==So conservative that Newman almost won.==

    Almost…in a year when Conservatives were walloped. And she didn’t win.

    Big thing this time is: he sees her coming. Bustos will take seriously incumbents. And Pelosi may prefer the Lip to her current band of wind up toys.


  38. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 1:48 pm:

    –The GOP can only get Nazis and nobody’s to run because moderates and conservative leaning people in that district actually vote for the lipper.–

    You’re going to get dizzy, fall down and hit your head — again — spinning so hard.

    The only explanations for not challenging a Nazi in a GOP primary are a combination of laziness and incompetence.


  39. - Been There - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 1:49 pm:

    ===So conservative that Newman almost won===
    No, Lipinski almost lost. Mathematically they are the same but the reasoning is totally different. A lot of moderate dems don’t like Lipinski either. There are progressives in the district but there are way more moderates.


  40. - Been There - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 1:52 pm:

    ===but when 1 in 5 vote for Lipinski and Trump, that’s a lot of votes which these oncoming progressive lose out on.===
    I agree with Word and thought that figure was higher.


  41. - Been There - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 1:55 pm:

    The more I think about it though Bernie Sanders delegates won in the 3rd district. They even topped Jorge Ramirez of the CFL and Madigan’s wife.


  42. - Chunga - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 2:11 pm:

    Southwest side Wards are cop and fireman land. They pulle D ballots in the primary and vote R in the general.
    Just go look at the numbers.


  43. - Soo... - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 2:58 pm:

    Sorry Word, I generally agree with you but the lipper has got old white and city worker demo in his pocket with all the holiday breakfasts and greeting cards he sends out. They vote for the old guard dems, and if their arent any to vote for, they go GOP.


  44. - Illinois Resident - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 3:24 pm:

    Since Bernie Sanders won this district by 8 points over Clinton in the 2016 primary, is this really still a moderate Reagan democrat district still?


  45. - Alma Otter - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 5:17 pm:

    “Soo… hate too break it to you but IL 3 isn’t the north or west side of the City…Progressives can come all they want, but IL 3 becomes competitive again for the GOP if a progressive wins that primary.”

    In the ‘16 Presidential general, IL-3 voted for Clinton 55% over Trump 39%. That’s a +16D lean. In the primary that year, IL-3 went for Bernie (I can’t find the data offhand, but it was at least +5), even though the state went for Clinton. In 2012, Obama beat Romney by more than +13 in the district. It is not competitive, even when Republicans don’t run a literal Nazi.


  46. - Roman - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 5:34 pm:

    Believe it or not, there are more than a few Sanders primary/Trump general election voters in that district.

    I give Newman a slight edge because of the bigger and more left-leaning electorate that will be drawn out by the presidential primary. Lipinski took things for granted last time and was slow to get in the mail boxes and on T.V. He won’t do that again. Newman needs to learn that holding endorsement press conferences with North Side elected officials won’t do her any good. The election will be decided in Orland Park, not Lincoln Park.


  47. - Amalia - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 6:16 pm:

    If I’m Lipinski’s gang I start literally pointing out all the outsiders who worked on this race/endorsed etc. honestly, if one more person who lives no where near that district asked me to come work on it I was going to change my phone and email.


  48. - Not an Outsider - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 10:05 pm:

    ===If I’m Lipinski’s gang I start literally pointing out all the outsiders who worked on this race/endorsed etc. honestly, if one more person who lives no where near that district asked me to come work on it I was going to change my phone and email.====*
    Don’t forget who ran Newman’s campaign for awhile. Some eggshells to walk on here.


  49. - NorthsideNoMore - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 10:48 pm:

    Her biggest problem is her. She snuck up last time won’t happen this time, locals have had a chance to see who she is and after polling some of my neighbors I can say they are not impressed …just sayin.


  50. - Soothsayer - Wednesday, Apr 17, 19 @ 11:11 pm:

    Justin Hansen has been running ads on Facebook as a candidate in the 3rd. He has yet to reveal whether he is running as a conservative Dem or moderate Republican.


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