Most state legislators don’t have to worry about next year’s general election. The combination of gerrymandering and the simple fact that many of the state’s regions are dominated by one party or the other pretty much guarantees that all but a handful of incumbents will sail through on the November ballot.
But first they have to survive the primary season. A Chicago Democrat has to worry about March 17, 2020, infinitely more than Nov. 3. The same goes for most Downstate Republicans.
And the most vulnerable of those are newbies who’ve taken controversial votes. Rep. Mark Kalish, D-Chicago, was appointed to his seat in January and then flip-flopped on the abortion issue and voted against the Reproductive Health Act, making him one of the most vulnerable House Democrats.
Other freshmen have other issues. Appointed Rep. Cam Buckner, D-Chicago, got pulled over in Springfield for allegedly driving while intoxicated and there’s video.
Smart incumbents are out walking precincts every day and attending events. The Democrats also have legislative accomplishments they can highlight to keep people from challenging them from their left. The Reproductive Health Act is just one of them; so is legalizing cannabis and cracking down on gun dealers. Republicans can use their “No” votes on those same bills to help prevent primary challenges.
But there are other ways to fend off intra-party opposition.
Rep. Terri Bryant, R-Murphysboro, for instance, voted to increase the motor fuel tax and related license fees in May to fund the capital bill. Despite the vast number of benefits that new roads and bridges will bring to her district, voting with the super-majority Democrats to jack up the gas tax isn’t gonna make her a lot of friends on the right.
So, when a controversy erupted in Bryant’s region over the governor’s cancellation of the scheduled performance of a band called Confederate Railroad at the Du Quoin State Fair, she defended southern “culture” and demanded that Snoop Dogg’s Illinois State Fair performance also be canceled because of an album cover photo portraying an American flag-draped body with a “Trump” toe tag and the caption “Make America Crip Again.”
President Donald Trump won Bryant’s district by 28 points in 2016. It’s not uncommon to see Confederate flag decals on cars and trucks in Bryant’s deep southern Illinois district. It’s distasteful to say, but this was a no-brainer for Bryant. She’d much rather her constituents be focused on this “issue” than tax hikes, particularly during the summer months when folks decide whether to run in the primary. That band’s cancellation was a campaign gift and she should send the governor a thank you card.
Rep. Chris Miller, R-Oakland, and most of what’s known as the far-right Eastern Bloc were elected for the first time last year. It’s almost impossible to attack them on their right flanks because they all hewed to a solidly far-right line — there’s just no room over there. But it’s easy to get lost in the shuffle, so organizing rallies around the “issue” of kicking Chicago out of Illinois helps Miller and the rest stand out.
When Rep. Miller (no relation) tried picking an online fight with Rep. Bryant and House Republican Leader Jim Durkin over the gas tax hike and subsequently lost his House public relations staffer, he elevated his profile even more and helped solidify his reputation as somebody who stands up for southern Illinois values, as he defines them. Frankly, I’m a little surprised that other Eastern Bloc members haven’t yet pulled the same stunt. It sure “worked” for Miller, who might want to send Leader Durkin a bowl of fruit in thanks.
The right wing is fond of calling stuff like this “virtue signaling.” And while they use the term mainly as a slam on the left wing, they also engage in it just about all the time.
Some feel the need to prove they are “pure,” so they do stuff like post stupid Facebook memes about the “Jihad Squad” (last Monday’s controversy), or, on the other wing, compare the Ku Klux Klan to Trump (last Tuesday’s controversy).
While it’s fine sport to watch them stumble all over themselves after being outed for their ridiculousness, it’s also important to remember that this often serves a purpose: Riling up and unifying the base ahead of primary season.
Candidates can start circulating nominating petitions in 42 days. Prepare yourself for more of this stuff. There’s just no getting around it.
Rep. Miller and other Eastern Bloc members just announced they’re hosting an Effingham concert by, you guessed it, Confederate Railroad.
- Blake - Monday, Jul 29, 19 @ 9:47 am:
This gets at why I think it’d be better if we copied Louisiana & instead of having partisan primaries, put all candidates on the November ballot when the maximum number vote with a runoff if no gets a majority. Show you appeal to your constituents at large, not just the local majority party’s primary voters.
- Former Quigley Supporter - Monday, Jul 29, 19 @ 9:53 am:
Guess when Rich filed his column for printing, the Eastern Bloc’s “Magnificent Seven” movie poster reproduction had not hit social media. They didn’t even use the 1960 classic movie, they used the 2016 remake. I wonder if the use of the Mag7 was wise, since in both versions of the movie, over half of the “seven” are killed.
Oh well, given how some of them aspire to higher office, particularly Allen Skillicorn, that Mag7 movie poster may be prophetic to his chances in the 14th, if he runs.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 29, 19 @ 10:07 am:
To the Post,
Great read. It’s a bright light on the continuing Raunerite thinking of voting against your district, but luckily now, the district reaps the rewards of those actually governing Illinois outside Raunerite ignorance.
I see “Show Business” now, and Rich is spot on in his writings, I see it as this want of morphing Raunerism into this regional monolithic religion, and there’s really no want or desire to govern, but folks willing to sow anger and discontent for their own feeling of being in power, and if the state party or any party that can compete everywhere evaporates, so be it.
These folks want only to embrace those who look, talk, “think” like each other, and anyone not like them… “they bad”
To tie it together? Easy. Racism.
The racist see this monolithic divide, this regional thinking, this parsing of “us versus them” and they hijack it by claiming they are only doing it to “support” the local guy.
In realty, they are fooling everyone as *they*, these racist, are driving the bus, but know driving the bus looks bad for them, so they give into this idea of regional and monolithic as acceptable, so racism can hide within the lines, just not hide in the rhetoric.
Raunerism fueled anger that already existed, but calling anyone not a Raunerite “corrupt” or a “puppet of Madigan and Chicago” left a huge hole for those willing to use the “Show Business” to ruin the party, and help a regional thinking party with a monolithic base… grow… as the party itself shrinks.
- A guy - Monday, Jul 29, 19 @ 10:22 am:
How true, and even more so, how unfortunate.
- Dutch, - Monday, Jul 29, 19 @ 10:44 am:
“It’s not uncommon to see Confederate flag decals on cars and trucks in Bryant’s deep southern Illinois district”.
Rich, I respectfully disagree with the above comment. I have lived in Carbondale for 40+ years and traveled all over the most rural parts of deep southern Illinois and and maybe seen Confederate flag decals on the back of truck windows a handful of times. Not common by any means. What IS common are Trump and NRA decals, which pretty much equates in my mind to the same thing. I DO think, however, you are going to see Confederate flags at the upcoming Confederate Railroad concert in Duquoin, but where the people flying those flags will be coming from is anybody’s guess. Just don’t typify them or the people behind the “boycott the Duquoin State Fair” web site (some of whom are from Alaska, for Christ’s sake, and most likely couldn’t find Illinois on the map if their life depended on it) as being representative of the region.
- Froganon - Monday, Jul 29, 19 @ 11:07 am:
What Blake said - all qualified candidates run in the Primary. The two candidates with the highest number of votes face off in the general election. If both candidates’ vote totals are below 34%, the third highest person is added to the general election ballot. Another strategy is weighted/ranked ballots. Voters have a 1st, 2cnd and 3rd choice. If their 1st choice is eliminated their vote goes to the second or third candidate.
- Blue Dog Dem - Monday, Jul 29, 19 @ 11:23 am:
Dutch. I live near Murphy. A tad too many conferate flags to my liking.
- Ash - Monday, Jul 29, 19 @ 12:00 pm:
I am continuously embarrassed to have Miller as our Rep. He never saw a tax he didn’t want to pay, yet never saw a tax he wouldn’t receive. While opposing social programs and taxes in the state, he has gladly taken in over $800,000 in federal (taxpayer supported) farm subsidies. Ugh.
- @misterjayem - Monday, Jul 29, 19 @ 1:14 pm:
Choosing either “Magnificent Seven” film rather than Kurosawa’s “The Seven Samurai” is a terrible failure of judgment.
– MrJM
- Wondering Wendy - Monday, Jul 29, 19 @ 2:00 pm:
Agree with Dutch. Been living in southern Illinois a long time. Rare to see a Confederate Flag. There appears to be a lot of Trump supporters, but also a lot of “quiet” people who just don’t talk about politics, but won’t be voting for Trump. They also didn’t for for Hilary, and chose to either write in someone or left it blank. Don’t generalize about an entire region because of a few. That’s like saying everyone who lives in Chicago is a snob, and is a liberal. Just not true.
- Techie - Monday, Jul 29, 19 @ 3:28 pm:
I wouldn’t be opposed to the idea of the non-partisan primary mentioned above by Blake. I just think that approval voting (instead of only voting for one candidate, you can vote for one OR more) is a better way to achieve a similar result. When you let voters vote for each candidate they support and not force them to pick just one, we the public see a more accurate level of support for the candidates.
It would also help us find consensus candidates. We might find that an independent or third-party candidate is more appealing to the voters in a given district than a Republican or Democrat, but that candidate might not win a “regular” election where they’re forced to vote for just one candidate since voters are afraid of vote splitting/spoiling.
- IllinoisBoi - Monday, Jul 29, 19 @ 3:37 pm:
I’ve seen as many Confederate flags in central Illinois as in Southern — maybe more. Don’t stereotype people.