9 Comments - Chicago Cynic - Friday, Apr 3, 20 @ 2:44 pm: Sadly, we are moving towards the peak whether we like it or not. - DuPage Dave - Friday, Apr 3, 20 @ 3:07 pm: This web site is sobering. You need to select Illinois from the dropdown. Projecting over 3,300 deaths in Illinois through August. https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections - Levois - Friday, Apr 3, 20 @ 3:08 pm: I look at the daily numbers and they go up and down seemingly the result remains total cases and deaths go up. Either way I’ll rest easy once we finally hit our peak. I hate that in this context I’m talking this way. - Diver Down - Friday, Apr 3, 20 @ 3:09 pm: Updated graph: https://bit.ly/3bGGnpX A couple of interesting data points: Known IL Covid-19 Cases: March 21 - known cases double in approximately 3 days (March 24) March 24 - known cases double in approximately 3 days (March 27) March 27 - known cases double in approximately 4 days (March 30) March 30 - if same new number of cases (roughly 1200) is the same tomorrow it will have taken 5 days to double New IL Covid-19 Cases: New cases doubled in one day (March 25 to March 26) from 330 to 673 Since March 26 we have yet to see a doubling (although we have been close: March 29 there were 1105; April 3 there were 1208) - 588-2300 - Friday, Apr 3, 20 @ 3:13 pm: Growth in confirmed cases of COVID-19 took five days to double, which is an improvement. - Anyone Remember - Friday, Apr 3, 20 @ 3:23 pm: Coming up on 2/3rds of Illinois counties with cases. And we haven’t hit the peak yet. - Rich Miller - Friday, Apr 3, 20 @ 3:34 pm: ===took five days to double, which is an improvement=== Means nothing. It’s taking a week or more to get some test results back. - Chicago Cynic - Friday, Apr 3, 20 @ 3:36 pm: Because of the tremendous lag in testing, the data coming in now represents what happened 7-10 days ago. The worst is yet to come. - Candy Dogood - Friday, Apr 3, 20 @ 4:06 pm: Ugh. 18.5% of tests are positive. ===which is an improvement. === To elaborate off of what Rich has implied, we have a significant issue with data validity caused by a lack of available testing and capacity to review or analyze those tests which has created an artificial bottleneck. The virus through community spread is exponential, however our ability to expand testing capacity is not — and the CDC has made very strict guidelines for who can get tested. It has been reported about the number of people that have symptoms that are basically just told to sit at home and call back if it gets worse — even healthcare providers are in this pool. I keep posting about the percentage of total positive tests because it’s relevant as the criteria for testing remains stringent, the population that qualifies for testing continues to present a higher ratio of infection. For the last several days that percentage has been climbing. I know that’s a bad indicator. Just because the forest in front of you isn’t burning doesn’t meant the forest behind you isn’t on fire. We don’t have enough data to get the full picture, and that’s why Ohio made the prudent choice to shut their buckeyes down after only 5 confirmed cases. They had enough to confirm community spread and that was it, they weren’t going to buckeye around. Meanwhile we have states like Iowa where they’re pretending the data they are receiving is comprehensive and using it to justify not taking broader action. There are reasons to be optimistic, and the stay the heck home strategy does work, but we are literally standing in front of a wave of this pandemic that is about to wreak havoc on our communities. Just because things aren’t as bad in Chicago as they are in New York doesn’t mean Chicago is better off than New York and all of those folks in this state pretending that this is a Chicago problem are about to find out that prayer meeting they went to or that Corona party they attended was a terrible idea. Don’t be the dog sitting in the burning bar. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.