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Today’s attempt at an imperfect analogy
Thursday, Apr 16, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller * An oil company’s massive Gulf of Mexico drilling platform exploded last week. A small fire that ignited months ago could not be adequately contained, ultimately resulting in a days-long inferno followed by the explosion. Hundreds of workers have died and many more have been injured since the fire began. The fire is still dangerous, as shown by the continued daily rise in the platform’s medical casualty report. But that daily increase is easing somewhat because some workers have been temporarily evacuated. Despite the ongoing fire and the inability to consistently lessen or even halt the platform’s daily casualty increase, oil company officials are now debating whether to order some of its evacuated employees to rejoin the workers who are still on the job. When asked why they would consider doing this, some executives have pointed to the company’s stock value, which has tumbled 50 percent since the fire began. * Your turn.
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- Dog Lover - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 9:34 am:
OMG
- Jibba - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 9:38 am:
A monster hurricane hit the large Gulf coast city. Flying debris and flooding are killing or carrying off hundreds of people who continue to go out. The Governor issues a shelter in place order to preserve lives. The people immediately want to know when the storm will be over and the order lifted. He tells them he doesn’t know when it will be safe, but sometime after the winds end and the floodwaters recede. Some people say that is not good enough. In private, he sighs.
- efudd - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 9:40 am:
So, money over lives.
Can’t wait for some of the bloggers who advocate this to comment.
- Bruce (no not him) - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 9:41 am:
But, what about the stock price? Won’t someone do something for the stock?
- TheInvisibleMan - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 9:41 am:
After looking at Sue Rezin’s economic disclosures, this is a lot more accurate than you’d think.
It’s not a coincidence her name was on that letter yesterday about prioritizing reopening business.
- phenom_Anon - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 9:41 am:
Several other gulf oil platforms have also had fires, some very small that appear to have been completely contained for days now, while numerous other platforms have had no fires at all. But the gulf safety director has decided to shut them all down, because he doesn’t want a piecemeal approach.
- Ok Boomer - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 9:42 am:
That is a very solid analogy. It only misses one piece, something to represent how truly willing the public will be to return to business as usual with the virus still raging among us. I certainly have no plans to return to shopping malls, restaurants, events of any scale, or even send my children back to school without the sense and security that we are not putting ourselves at risk.
- Cubs in '16 - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 9:44 am:
This is why unions are important.
- Anon - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 9:45 am:
If only we knew this pandemic were like a fire with a fairly simple status of on fire or extinguished.
This “fire” likely won’t be “extinguished” until a vaccine is widely available.
There will be tough decisions to be made between then and now.
- Someone you should know - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 9:51 am:
When you climb Mount Everest, you still have to come down from the peak, and it isn’t any easier
- Annonin - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 9:52 am:
As soon as the new MAGA hats with chin straps and face masks appear and the emergency rooms are “sufficiently”
- PublicServant - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 9:53 am:
Profits over people….order back. Love that phrasing. And rig fires and oil spills are why we need to get off off oil asap.
- efudd - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 9:54 am:
Anon-
Re-read the story.
The fire started months ago, and is still dangerous.
The analogy is spot on. So is your unwillingness to see it.
- frisbee - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 9:58 am:
With this new surge of troops on the ground the Afghan people can expect freedom and democracy as soon as we turn this corner. #Endlesswar
- Jocko - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 9:59 am:
The party of pro-life…which changes to ‘pro-fit’ after birth
- efudd - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:01 am:
Missouri gov Parson is giving a press conference this afternoon addressing MO’s stay at home order which is in effect, for now, till next week.
Odds that he ends it early/extends it?
- Haver of a Non-Constitutionally Protected Retirement Plan - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:04 am:
So… will the public sector agree to a haircut on the pensions then?
No?
WHY PLACE PROFITS OVER PEOPLE?
- Grandson of Man - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:07 am:
You despise government and think it’s taking away your rights by forcing you to comply with a stay at home order. You think government is trying to take your guns, too. You bring your gun to a rally to protest stay at home with many other people and don’t practice social distancing. You clog up vital roads with needless traffic. What could possibly go wrong?
Now nothing’s happened yet with people getting sick because of the Michigan rally, but these people needlessly put many at risk, which is what we’re trying to mitigate.
- Donnie Elgin - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:07 am:
Did a foreign country start the fire?
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:10 am:
=== will the public sector agree to a haircut on the pensions then?===
I sincerely hope you feel better.
This analogy Rich has up… it isn’t a person yelling at clouds on their porch
It would be a better comment on a “everyone has their own priorities” post.
To the Post,
I think, while a sobering analogy, it’s the helplessness to the fight, and knowing what needs to be done, as others only see a financial situation, not a health crisis.
That’s a helpless feeling to watch that ignorance in a sobering and tragic framing.
- SSL - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:11 am:
There was a large country that experienced in excess of 80,000 deaths a year due to diseases related to a common consumer item. The companies that produced the product downplayed the risk and advertised their product heavily. Despite the connection between the product and thousands of deaths, the product remains very popular. It should be noted that the product does not kill the vast majority of users. Should the government intervene and stop the product from being distributed and save tens of thousands?
- Grandson of Man - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:12 am:
“Did a foreign country start the fire?“
A foreign country starts a fire that spreads to your country and is burning up a lot of places. You mock the spreading fire and call it a hoax. You say the fire will die out on its own very soon. Instead of trying to extinguish the fire, you focus blame on the fire’s origin.
- Kippax Blue - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:13 am:
Caligula rode his horse across the Bay of Baiae for a sixth time today as famine decimates the empire. Senators gleefully ran on foot along side Caligula, singing songs of adoration and vowing to surrender the keys of the the Senate to Caligula via recess appointment whilst they sunned in Puteoli. Caligula has also directed all to address him by his proper name, Jupiter.
- Moe Berg - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:13 am:
If we assume, for the purposes of this analogy, that the fire platform is a subsidiary operation to a larger corporation, I would add: there is equipment available to fight the fire. Hoses, fire boats, fire suppression systems, sprinklers and special foams.
However, for some reason, the CEO at HQ is not interested in marshaling those resources to extinguish the fire, but rather convenes daily meetings to blame other companies that did a better job fighting their own platform fires and to blame the fire safety organization that warned all companies that oil rig fires were going to be a problem soon and companies needed to be prepared.
- efudd - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:15 am:
“will the public sector”
As has been stated by posters who actually know what they are talking about, the public sector couldn’t agree on this. One retiree would have standing to sue.
But, you know that, don’t you.
I suspect one couldn’t have a conversation on any topic with you that you did not bring this up within sixty seconds.
- Moe Berg - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:19 am:
Adding further: in the years leading up to the fire, the CEO decided to “save money” and “streamline operations” by eliminating departments and employees that were specifically charged with anticipating, detecting and extinguishing platform fires.
- Morningstar - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:21 am:
“Did a foreign company start the fire?” is just about as relevant to the question of sending workers back as “what is the pH of the water in the Gulf?” Red herring.
- Morningstar - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:21 am:
“Did a foreign company start the fire?” is just about as relevant to the question of sending workers back as “what is the pH of the water in the Gulf?” Red herring.
- Keyrock - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:21 am:
Man, we’ve gotta open the gates.”
“We’ve been through this, Phil. The Mongols are still outside.”
“But I’ve gotta harvest my turnips”
“MONGOLS”
“Ugh. But we’ve been in here or WEEKS.”
“That’s how sieges work, Phil.”
ut the Mongols have barely killed anyone in days.”
“That’s because of the walls, Phil.”
“Are you sure? Maybe the Mongols aren’t that dangerous.”
“…”
“I’m just saying, how bad could it be. They can’t kill ALL of us”
“That is literally the thing they do.”
“But my turnips…”
https://twitter.com/bry_mac/status/1250155077668605954?s=21
- efudd - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:24 am:
Keyrock-
Yep.
Think this nation could sacrifice to fight another two-ocean war?
- Morningstar - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:24 am:
Sorry for the unintentional duplicate post. New keyboard. I swear I hit “say it” only once.
- Jibba - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:35 am:
Any Rand just rolled over because the government spent trillions on aid, or because her world of rugged individualism has just been proven to be a fantasy? Either way, it looks bad for her.
- Anyone Remember - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:35 am:
As long as the Reagan era philosophy of “maximizing shareholder value and profit” continues (the reason stock buybacks were made legal), these utterances will continue. And everyone else will be reduced to the level of Oliver Twist (”Please, sir, I want some more.”).
- Ok - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:38 am:
Goldman Sachs: Dr. Burry? Deeb Winston, Goldman Sachs. Listen, I’ve been reviewing your position. I wanted to discuss your marks, make sure they’re fair?
Michael Burry: Yeah, I think you mean that you’ve secured a net short position yourselves so you’re free to mark my swaps accurately for once, because it’s now in your interest to do so.
Goldman Sachs: Umm… I’m not sure what you want me to say.
Michael Burry: I think that… I think you’ve already said it.
- JS Mill - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:39 am:
=But the gulf safety director has decided to shut them all down, =
Because the safety director, in this case, knows that opening other areas up could spread the fire to places where it isn’t burning. (duh)
= Did a foreign company start the fire?=
Yes.
Does that mean we just let it burn?
Ask Sweden about that. 200 deaths reported Tuesday. They have 1.5 million (approx) fewer citizens than Illinois. Illinois reported 74 the same day.
- Arock - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:40 am:
“This is why unions are important.”- Seriously, Cubs in ‘16
As I was driving back from Springfield last week I go by a project where a bridge deck is being poured with 50 some guys on the job, many close to each other, one group in a circle close to each other talking and not a single face mask. Union people not using PPE when needed. Why are these jobs not closed down during the pandemic? Only emergency filling of potholes or things that directly affect the safety of the motorist should being done during a shelter in place. Not a large group working closely together on a bridge where two lanes of traffic are already available. While it is essential for this bridge project to get done eventually but not during a shelter in place order when you are possibly spreading the virus to others. Just like Lowes, Menards, Home Depot and others should be phone or order on line and we will load it in your vehicle.
- Sterling - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:47 am:
The back half of the house is on fire. The parents and the kids are on the front lawn, waiting for the fire department. The kids want the parents to run into the kitchen for some snacks while they wait. The parents are seriously considering it.
- Skeptic - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:51 am:
I think you forgot the part about not knowing if the other platforms are actually on fire until two weeks from now, and then the only way to find out is when someone gets hurt or dies.
- Demoralized - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:52 am:
==Did a foreign country start the fire?==
What in the bleep does that have to do with anything?
- AnnieH - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:52 am:
Can’t improve on this. Good work, all.
- Demoralized - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:56 am:
I kinda provided one yesterday.
A house is a raging inferno. It has been decided that it is ok to let people back in so long as they can be treated for smoke inhilation and burns later.
- JB13 - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 10:59 am:
A brush fire is raging, and is now consuming a town. Town leaders say they must allow a large number of homes and businesses to burn to the ground to create a fire break to prevent the entire town from being consumed. The people are mostly OK with the order. The leaders don’t tell the people that the leaders’ homes and livelihoods will be specially protected by the town’s firefighters, because, they are more important than the rest of the people. Yet they preach and demand sacrifice and enlist the rest of the town, whose livelihoods are secure, to cluck their tongues in disdain at everyone concerned about losing their homes and businesses. “Such stupid and heartless people,” they say from the comfort of their secured homes. “Putting their own money ahead of our lives. Don’t they know people are dying?”
- City Zen - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 11:02 am:
==A small fire that ignited months ago could not be adequately contained==
You need to insert OSHA or EPA being notified and doing nothing about it.
- Echo Chamber Bystander - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 11:03 am:
This isn’t a house fire, or an oil platform fire.
It’s a pandemic.
Some places are doing better than others. Hence some areas can be opened up before others. This blog is fond of saying “don’t argue like a child.” Don’t create analogies like one either.
- Earnest - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 11:05 am:
Company develops a pain relief product. They discover it has addictive qualities that lead to lethal overdoses and negative societal impact. They determine that effective advertising, PR and lobbying expense will result in profits outweighing potential liability. The government under which they operate reinforces these values by prioritizing tax breaks to enhance corporate profits over spending on health and human service programs.
- A Jack - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 11:09 am:
My imperfect analogy:
Sending people back to work during a pandemic to fix unemployment is like not having a budget for three years to fix an unbalanced budget.
- Demoralized - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 11:12 am:
==Some places are doing better than others. Hence some areas can be opened up before others.==
The virus doesn’t know about those artificial borders you want to establish. Do you think, Mr. Wizard, that if you opened up, say, some of the counties in Southern Illinois that perhaps, just perhaps, someone from another place that isn’t well off might be driving through, might stop at a restaurant there, and might just spread the virus? And then you wouldn’t be doing so well. But you geniuses don’t think like that. You. Just. Don’t. Get. It.
- Flapdoodle - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 11:13 am:
As the Brits would say, it is a poser, isn’t it? There is one element I would add here, which “market think” always stumbles over — externalities. Add in the costs of environmental damage being done by the fires, costs which the oil company will not bear. The costs of whatever the company decides will be born by many, the benefits will accrue to the few.
- Skeptic - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 11:16 am:
“Some places are doing better than others.” Until they aren’t.
- City Zen - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 11:18 am:
Adding on to Earnest’s example:
State pension plan holds $100 million in company stock and leverages company’s profits into increased stock value which funds retiree pensions.
- Dog Lover - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 11:20 am:
We need an Oscar pic to offset the ugliness.
- Anon62704 - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 11:24 am:
Saw this on social media:
“The curve is flattening; we can start lifting restrictions now.” = “The parachute slowed our rate descent; we can take it off now.”
- Jocko - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 11:26 am:
==Some places are doing better than others.==
Like Demo was saying, those same places (Nebraska, Iowa, and SD) are now being crippled by Covid outbreaks…while their governors dither.
- TheInvisibleMan - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 11:31 am:
Nowhere is doing better than other places. Nowhere.
Some places are just less bad.
- zatoichi - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 11:40 am:
“Some places are doing better than others” for right now.
- Fly like an eagle - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 11:43 am:
- -Union people not using PPE when needed.- -
A good union can protect a person only so far. They can’t get inside people’s’ heads and think for them.
- City Zen - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 11:48 am:
Oil company sends everyone back to drilling platform to vote on new board of directors.
- Skeptic - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 11:55 am:
“, it turned out to be a fire in the galley,” Yeah, if I made a comment that inane, I’d choose to stay anonymous too.
- TinyDancer(FKASue) - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 12:13 pm:
Follow the leader:
“…he would “rather have them stay on.”
“I would rather because I like the numbers being where they are. I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn’t our fault…”
- bailbond - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 12:26 pm:
Sticking with that analogy, should we wait until the fire is completely 100% extinguished and cooled, and give each employee a fire extinguisher and fire suit before reentering the platform? The fire department says it will take 12-18 months before they can reliably do that. That’s the only way to *guarantee* no one will get hurt from the fire.
Or should we get the fire under control, understand what makes it flare up, have a team working on preventing flare ups for the long term, and then *gradually* allow select areas of the platform to rebuild in a controlled fashion, while knowing that future flare ups are inevitable and that some areas of the platform need more stringent protection?
- Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 12:37 pm:
There is a bear in the woods. For some people, the bear is easy to see. Others don’t see it at all. Some people say the bear is tame. Others say it’s vicious and dangerous. Since no one can really be sure who’s right, isn’t it smart to be as strong as the bear? If there is a bear.
Just wondering.
- Lynn S. - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 12:39 pm:
Regarding the question, “Did a foreign country start the fire?”
Scene: the large conference salon at Versailles, filled with the King, many Ministers, and even more advisors with university degrees in scientific subjects and methods.
A scientific advisor:
“My dear beloved Monarch, the greatest and most perfect Leader of our country,
Sir, we unfortunately face a situation where a drought that started in Germany has crossed our borders and is moving across our country, all the way to Spain.”
Louis XVI: “fake news (banned punctuation)”
Medical advisor:
“My dear beloved King, the wisest and richest and most brilliant Leader of our country,
The peasants are unable to tend to their crops, and the villagers and their children are getting sick and dying of preventable disease.”
Louis XVI: “The peasants live in the areas that provide my greatest support. This is the fault of the Germans (banned punctuation)”
Louis XVI then turns to the Head Minister of the Treasury: “To protect me, we must send a few pence to each citizen, and a thousand livre note to the owners of each business with an income over $1,000,000/year. Be sure to stamp my image on both sides of the pence, and my picture and signature on each livre note.
Then order all the villagers to return to their jobs, and send their children to harvest the crops for the peasants.”
- Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 12:39 pm:
Source: https://youtu.be/KQNBNiXGMiA
- dbk - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 12:44 pm:
I read a good piece today which is relevant to this analogy.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/04/taleb-the-only-man-who-has-a-clue.html
Honest, it’s worth it to put in the time.
Having read it and absorbed the general idea (by the way, it contains a real-world analogy), here’s what I would have done: (1) first documented case (Washington): lock down the state, test, track, isolate; test, track, isolate; (2) cut off flights into/out of that state. Repeat if virus manifests in another state, say, California.
As soon as possible, shut down all commercial flights from point of origin/places where cases have been attested; quarantine anyone arriving from these regions in the meantime for 2 weeks.
If cases continue to manifest, work with the governors to lock down the country for 2 weeks. Schools/non-essential businesses/commercial flights, everything.
Sound extreme? Yep, it is. The problem is that the consequences of not taking so-called extreme action are going to be worse - naturally in terms of lives lost, but also worse for the economy long term.
Remember: epidemiologists predict a second and possibly a third wave. So it could well be open up, shut down, open up, shut down for a good long while - maybe until a widely-available, affordable vaccine is created.
The article cited argues - I think rightly - that it’s now too late to test - trace - isolate because we’ve reached the pandemic stage (note: those states which are supposedly doing well simply haven’t begun their exponential rate of increase yet).
The only solution now is lock-down + mandatory masks for everyone who must go out.
Discussing “opening up” for business at this stage - before we’ve managed to do what the epidemiologists refer to as “crushing” Covid-19 - is just inviting a second, possibly more virulent wave before the inevitable one in the fall.
- Jocko - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 12:54 pm:
==while knowing that future flare ups are inevitable==
In keeping with your analogy, I’d rather be singed than require painful skin grafts or die from the blaze. What do YOU plan on doing to protect me (and my family) from fire?
- TinyDancer(FKASue) - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 12:58 pm:
You can thank Milton Friedman:
“…there is one and only one social responsibility of business-to use its resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits.” Anything else, he argues, is “unadulterated socialism.”
No, Milt, actually it’s called stakeholder capitalism.
- Candy Dogood - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 1:05 pm:
“But my turnips” should become shorthand for the pro throw workers and the lower class on the sacrificial fire arguments.
Here’s mine:
“Your highness, the volcano is shaking and there’s gases coming out of it.”
“Throw some more of the working poor and lower class into it and the invisible hand will protect us.”
“Your highness, the experts and the priests say that won’t work, and we should move everyone away from the volcano to keep them safe.”
“It worked yesterday. There was no eruption yesterday when we sacrificed the old and those with the underlying conditions that displease the invisible hand.”
“Your highness, just because it didn’t erupt yesterday doesn’t mean we’re actually succeeding at trading lives for time. We need go protect people. We need go have them leave to go to safety.:
“Nonsense. The invisible hand will punish me if the factories stand idle and the market stays closed. The value of my holdings will decrease so we must sacrifice more. Sacrifice the working poor. And maybe some of the experts and the priests that are concerned about this fake news eruption.”
“The eruption is not fake, your highness, I have seen it myself.”
“My son in law informs me that you are wrong and that your eyes see poorly.”
“Your highness, we must act. The invisible hand will punish us if the workers lose their lives and thr factories and markets will be destroyed.”
“You are wrong. The invisible hand made me rich. I know the hand better than you. Sacrifice the working poor and lower class. Do it now or I will start executing government officials. I have absolute authority. Know one knows the invisible hand as well as I do.”
- Last Bull Moose - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 1:11 pm:
Imperfect analogies give misleading advice.
We are not trading lives just for higher stock prices.
96 people died building Hoover Dam. That was individual risk for the collective benefit. We see firefighters and soldiers take individual risks for the collective good.
With Covid 19 we have individual actions that place the entire population at risk. How do we decide as a group how much risk to take for how much benefit?
To complicate matters, risks and rewards are not distributed equally. With this disease the old and infirm take most (not all) the risk. Their children and grandchildren get most of the benefits.
Making the collective decision to balance risks and benefits is hard. We have decided to try to cut the risks, even at considerable cost. Another imperfect analogy is that at some time we will decide to send draftees into battle to benefit the rest of us.
- revvedup - Thursday, Apr 16, 20 @ 1:19 pm:
I commend the authors of all the analogies posted in reply; very good work. However, it is too early to re-open the economy and life back to normal activity levels. There are still scientific unknowns, flare-up and new outbreaks, and a lack of PPE or good substitutes to just say “have at it”. Right now. Our Nation and economy have survived everything else; we will survive this also if we do the right things NOW.