Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » COGFA says tax receipts this fiscal year “clearly have performed much better than any prognosticator could have foretold”
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
COGFA says tax receipts this fiscal year “clearly have performed much better than any prognosticator could have foretold”

Thursday, May 6, 2021

* Good news…


* From the COGFA report

One year removed from receipts dropping $2.74 billion as the pandemic abruptly manifested in April 2020 revenues, base general funds revenues in April 2021 grew $1.779 billion. Continued strong performance from both personal income and corporate income tax receipts were again complemented by an impressive month for sales tax revenues. In addition, federal sources also posted an impressive monthly gain. The number of receipting days were the same as last year.

For the month, gross corporate income taxes jumped $767 million, or $614 million on a net basis. Much of the comparative gain can be attributed to last April’s delayed final payments, which fell into early FY 2021. In addition, preliminary analysis suggests that corporations, in the face of pandemic disruptions, quickly adjusted down their estimated payments in the first half of tax year 2020. However, as the economy recovered much quicker than originally expected, those lower estimated payments were insufficient to meet tax year 2020 liabilities and higher final payments have been the result. [Further analysis of component data is needed to confirm this view].

Gross personal income taxes also grew substantially in April as receipts rose $619 million, or $533 million on a net basis. A couple of key reasons likely comprise this level of growth. While the deadline for final personal income tax payments were extended, as they were last year, they were only done so for an extra month [as compared to last year’s three-month extension]. Consequently, taxpayers were less incentivized to put off filing their final return. Preliminary estimated payments, whose deadline was not extended, but reflecting anticipated economic improvement, also appear to have been very strong [again, component breakdowns of monthly data will have to be examined before definitive conclusions can be made].

Gross sales tax receipts jumped $301 million, or $297 million on a net basis. This dramatic year-over-year gain is the consequence of the manifestation of the economic shutdown in last April’s sales tax receipts, coupled with the timing of the most recent stimulus payments and further increase in consumer confidence. […]

Year To Date

Excluding borrowing related activity, through the first ten months of the fiscal year, base receipts are up $4.920 billion. In addition to a surge in federal sources, that growth also reflects the timing of income tax receipts related to last year’s [2020] filing deadline extension, as well as the positive trajectory of underlying economic conditions. Through April, combined net income tax receipts are up $3.406 billion. While approximately $1.3 billion of those gains continue to be attributed to the shift of FY 2020 final payments into early FY 2021, stronger than previously expected income tax performance continues to impress. Also viewed positively is the continued upward trend of sales tax receipt performance as net receipts are up $557 million. Only now beginning to compare against those months most impacted by the economic shutdowns of a year ago, sales taxes seem to be reflecting positive consumer reactions to stimulus payments, improving job picture, and stronger consumer confidence. […]

While the full story of FY 2021 revenues has yet to be written, given the onset of the pandemic, receipts clearly have performed much better than any prognosticator could have foretold one year earlier. Despite periodic upward revisions in the revenue projections throughout the course of the fiscal year, each time those updated expectations have been met and exceeded. That said, as illustrated by the previous section which demonstrates the extreme volatility of some key revenue sources, often times swings in one direction are met with opposing subsequent pressure, particularly when viewed in terms of year-over-year growth measures. Underlying economic performances of the major revenue sources are sometimes trumped by aspects of receipt timing, tax policy changes at the state and/or sometimes federal level, and other unforeseen extraneous events. While uncertainty is less heading into upcoming FY 2022 than last year, it still is much higher than normal. The unwinding of the various stimulus programs such as direct stimulus payments, augmented unemployment benefits, rental assistance and other business and consumer focused benefits, will likely create some headwinds related to growth rates. All that without mentioning the specter of the return of the virus in the fall and/or resistant variant strains.

Remember, this is for the current fiscal year. But this will likely cause at least some readjustment in revenue forecasts for next fiscal year during budget talks.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

18 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 11:43 am:

    Hmm.

    === - Lucky Pierre - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 10:40 am

    Reading is fundamental

    I said JB would be graded on his COVID response and the situation in Illinois relative to the neighboring states and the rest of the country and the economic recovery.

    You disagree?===

    Ask COGFA…

    === Continued strong performance from both personal income and corporate income tax receipts were again complemented by an impressive month for sales tax revenues. In addition, federal sources also posted an impressive monthly gain. The number of receipting days were the same as last year.===

    Is that bad news?


  2. - Annonin' - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 11:44 am:

    More $$ than predicted
    More people that predicted
    Looks like IL back to be a Garden of Eden!


  3. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 11:46 am:

    “this will likely cause at least some readjustment in revenue forecasts for next fiscal year during budget talks.”

    Which would be a big mistake. The amount of free money flowing in the economy right now (stimulus, PPP), that won’t be there next year, is significant.


  4. - JS Mill - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 11:48 am:

    @OW, LOL. I don’t think you will hear from LP on this positive Illinois economic news.


  5. - Donnie Elgin - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 11:50 am:

    The revenue increase is good news however, it is likely transitory…

    Underlying economic performances of the major revenue sources are sometimes trumped by aspects of receipt timing, tax policy changes at the state and/or sometimes federal level, and other unforeseen extraneous events. While uncertainty is less heading into upcoming FY 2022 than last year, it still is much higher than normal.


  6. - Rich Miller - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 11:50 am:

    ===Which would be a big mistake===

    Not necessarily.


  7. - Lucky Pierre - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 12:31 pm:

    Positive news is always welcome even if it is distorted by billions of dollars in “free” stimulus.

    Do you settle your bets on the Bears game after the first set of downs or wait until the game is over?


  8. - BTO2 - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 12:42 pm:

    Watch out Florida, Texas etc, Illinois is back!!

    Nice to hear good economic news for our state for a change.


  9. - Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 1:05 pm:

    LP, when in your uh, “mind”, will Illinois’ game be over?


  10. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 1:07 pm:

    === distorted by billions of dollars in “free” stimulus.===

    You’re against the stimulus?

    That’s not a surprise, lol

    === Do you settle your bets on the Bears game after the first set of downs or wait until the game is over?===

    So you’re betting “against” Illinois.

    You sure you’re not Bruce Rauner?


  11. - Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 1:07 pm:

    “Watch out Florida, Texas”

    Say what you will about Illinois, I had family in Texas this winter who lived like it was 1858 for about five days.

    Me, I had the furnace on, watching Netflix.


  12. - Lucky Pierre - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 1:50 pm:

    Before you order the ticker tape parade acknowledge tax receipts only recovered 2/3 of the drop from last year and were fueled by the federal stimulus, not organic economic growth.

    One year removed from receipts dropping $2.74 billion as the pandemic abruptly manifested in April 2020 revenues, base general funds revenues in April 2021 grew $1.779 billion.

    Gross sales tax receipts jumped $301 million, or $297 million on a net basis. This dramatic year-over-year gain is the consequence of the manifestation of the economic shutdown in last April’s sales tax receipts, coupled with the timing of the most recent stimulus payments and further increase in consumer confidence. […]


  13. - Arsenal - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 2:04 pm:

    ==Positive news is always welcome even if it is distorted by billions of dollars in “free” stimulus.==

    What’s the “distortion”? The money exists, it’s in the accounts.


  14. - The Dude Abides - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 2:16 pm:

    I think this is good news for Illinois. Going forward I still think we need to find both additional ways to save money and find more revenue. We have made some progress under our current Governor as we continue to dig our way out of a $16 billion backlog of unpaid bills leftover from our previous administration.


  15. - Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 2:20 pm:

    LP, so when the state re-opens next month money won’t be spent by those who can’t wait to get out of the house?

    Of course tax receipts were down, there was this pandemic thing, it was in a couple of papers.

    Would you use this same inane analysis when tax receipts for say, December was higher than January?


  16. - Arsenal - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 2:44 pm:

    ==Before you order the ticker tape parade==

    We’re inventing a lot of guys to be mad at today, lol.

    ==fueled by the federal stimulus, not organic economic growth. ==

    Whooooooo caaaaaaares. Certainly not the students who will now see more school funding, the patients who will see their hospitals stay open, or the tradesmen who will see more public works projects to work on. Federal stimulus money isn’t paid in secret “Not As Good” dollars.


  17. - Advocate - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 5:29 pm:

    I await the IPI paper praising the Governor’s fiscal stewardship of the state.


  18. - EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham - Thursday, May 6, 21 @ 6:14 pm:

    Any comment dashing this new optimism yet from Comptroller Mendoza?


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Question of the day
* Narrow US Supreme Court decision should have no impact on Illinois' foster care program
* It's just a bill
* Marjorie Taylor Greene heading to Eastern Bloc territory for fundraiser with Mary Miller
* Not exactly the A Team lining up against Sen. Duckworth
* Thousands of veterans won't be left out of Illinois vaccine lottery program after all
* "Outlier" Illinois trying to catch up with other states on equity-based higher ed funding
* Reeder: "We need to ask how to increase public safety and minimize police shootings"
* CPS alters its botched janitorial privatization plan
* Open thread
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* *** LIVE COVERAGE ***
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller