* Louis Jacobson at Sabato’s Crystal Ball…
In contemporary politics, demography is destiny. Just how true this has become can be demonstrated by a simple calculation using 3 basic demographic variables.
For all 50 states, we looked at 3 variables that are increasingly linked with partisan voting:
— What percentage of the state’s residents 25 or older have at least a bachelor’s degree?
— What percentage of the state’s residents are white?
— How urban or rural is the state?
Put simply, Republican candidates now perform strongest among white voters without a college degree, especially if they live in rural areas. And Democrats, conversely, are performing best among minority voters, those with at least an undergraduate degree, and those who live in or near urban areas.
To make our calculations, we drew on the most recent education data from the National Center for Education Statistics’ Digest of Education Statistics, the most recent racial data from the U.S. Census Bureau, and FiveThirtyEight’s urbanization index.
For each of these 3 metrics, we ranked the states on a 1-to-50 scale.
Specifically, the state with the lowest percentage of residents 25 or over holding a bachelor’s degree was ranked 1, while the state with the highest percentage holding a bachelor’s degree was ranked 50. For the racial measurement, the whitest state was ranked 1, while the least-white state was ranked 50. For the urban-rural measurement, the least urban state was ranked 1, while the most urban state was ranked 50.
Once we had all 3 rankings in hand, we simply added together the rankings for each state, then rank-ordered that composite score for the states from 1 to 50. The states that ranked closer to 1 offered more friendly demographics for the GOP, while the states closer to 50 offered demographics more friendly to the Democrats.
As noted in the headline, Illinois was ranked the 43rd most Republican-friendly state, tied with Connecticut. We were 39th most friendly when it came to percentages of people with bachelor’s degrees, 34th most friendly on whiteness and 43rd on urbanization.
Keep in mind, this is about presidential races, not off-year contests, which is the cycle we’re in now. Some folks are making the case these days that the Illinois Democrats have taken things for granted for far too long. We’ll see in a matter of months.
- DuPage Saint - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 9:11 am:
Overconfidence eventually catches up but with the Illinois GOP in its present state it will take a while but sooner or later it will happen
- phenom_Anon - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 9:16 am:
43rd?
So you’re saying there’s a chance…
- Jocko - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 9:17 am:
==white voters without a college degree, especially if they live in rural areas.==
or, put another way, Individuals who have been getting the shaft since Reagan and can be trusted to vote against their own interests through ‘ginned up’ outrage.
- Steve - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 9:19 am:
Nationally , the GOP is fortunate that Illinois is losing out to places likes Florida.
- supplied_demand - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 9:19 am:
> Illinois Democrats have taken things for granted for far too long.
Our last governor was a Republican.
- halving_fun - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 9:25 am:
>> Illinois Democrats have taken things for granted for far too long.
>Our last *horrible governor was a Republican.
**corrected a typo
and may I remind the audience, Trump style republican, before that became popular
Who’s motto: destroy government and thus proves Government is the source of your problems
- Levois J - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 9:25 am:
Slightly off topic I think, however, speaking of rebuilding….
- Captain Obvious - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 9:36 am:
That’s a higher rank than I would have guessed.
- James the Intolerant - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 9:37 am:
The first Pritzker vs the various Repub candidates polling will be interesting to see.
- JS Mill - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 9:45 am:
=but sooner or later it will happen=
My money is on much,much…later.
Zero statewides currently and micro minority in both houses.
- Intern4justice - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 9:45 am:
I just can’t understand why anyone would want to leave Illinois.
- Grandson of Man - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 9:46 am:
If there’s anytime Democrats should be proud it’s now, after leading the way toward fiscal improvement, infrastructure investment, green energy, minimum wage hike, properly funded budgets, marijuana legalization and all the rest. Now they have a chance to lead on inflation relief. After all, those whopping Trump corporate tax cuts are not “trickling down” to consumers in any meaningful way.
Does that mean it will translate exactly into election success? No, but it’s something to run on that was absent pre-JB. Does that mean they didn’t make mistakes? No, everybody makes mistakes. But things are brighter now in many ways.
- Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 9:56 am:
I have taken for granted that the ILGOP will field a gubernatorial candidate that is a) either a union-hating billionaire, or funded by one or b) is an utter embarrassment.
So far, not proven wrong.
- Candy Dogood - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 9:56 am:
I’m not sure how much confidence I place in the idea that voters are going to be so grumpy about their property taxes that they’re going to vote for a pro-insurrection political party that leans fascist.
There’s not really much on their platform to suggest that they’re doing anything to encourage anyone who is the least bit concerned about policy to vote for them and so it really comes down to a question of identity politics and whether or not people that live in the state want to identify with Chris Miller and Darren Bailey more than they want to at least be able to pretend to be a decent person.
- Arsenal - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 9:59 am:
==The first Pritzker vs the various Repub candidates polling will be interesting to see. ==
It’s been out there, but the Republicans suffer from a lack of name recognition. They will not have that problem by November.
- Michelle Flaherty - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 10:03 am:
43rd most Republican state
Can you believe someone gets paid to come up with this stuff?
What a country
I have some questions:
Do you have to be top 4 to be Liberal Bowl eligible?
Illinois is tied with Connecticut in the rankings. But if the season ended today, wouldn’t we hold the tie breaker thanks to the Chicago Sky’s playoff victory over the Connecticut Sun on their way to the WNBA championship? Head-to-head has to count for something, right?
Hawaii at 44 is a slap in the face to the power state conferences. Does anyone really think Hawaii should be in this conversation?
The Illinois Policy Institute and Jim Durkin have a question: Here we are stuck at 43 for the second year in a row. Why has JB Pritzker failed to bring a national championship to Illinois?
Is it true Darren Bailey promised to get Illinois over the hump and all the way to the coveted 50 spot?
Do Puerto Rico and American Samoa qualify for the play-in game?
Not to cast too much doubt on Sabato’s Crystal Ball, I mean it’s far better than the AP coaches poll, but where does Illinois fall on the KenPom rankings?
Can you confirm the Eastern Bloc is entering the transfer portal? And if so, does that help or hurt our rankings?
I’ll hang up and listen.
- Chicago Blue - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 10:12 am:
Inflation is 7.5% year over year. Gas & grocery prices are going to be DC headwinds the Democrats will be fighting unless something changes. Pritzker should and deserves to win against the clown car candidates on the other side, but stranger things have happened in wave elections.
- Dance Band on the Titanic - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 10:18 am:
===The Illinois Policy Institute and Jim Durkin have a question: Here we are stuck at 43 for the second year in a row. Why has JB Pritzker failed to bring a national championship to Illinois?===
Michelle Flaherty deserves a prize.
- dbk - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 10:21 am:
Any chance we could get to “50″ in the next couple of cycles?
I note that the Midwest is underrepresented in the Top 10.
- Blake - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 10:31 am:
Jocko, I wouldn’t say voting against their interests. Their interest can include cultural interests like gun rights, allowing for higher risk tolerance on some areas like health care, having a lower risk tolerance on other areas like crime. They may also have different senses about abortion, the importance of reciprocity, & effect of taxes or labor law on the economy.
- Candy Dogood - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 10:33 am:
Great data. Questionable data validity.
If we’re using this to project trends we need to be looking at the current rates of matriculation for people under 30 (and decide whether or not that will continue or accelerate) while also looking at the anticipated change as folks over a certain age are less likely to continue to be able to influence the politics of the living.
I don’t think they have analyzed enough data to make a meaningful prediction going forward, and I think they erred by looking at statewide data which does not capture concentration of voters.
It also isn’t really accounting for the fact that the GOP is currently embracing fascist and coups as their electoral strategy which will impact any historic trend.
- Nathan L - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 11:11 am:
Worth noting that of the states ranked below Illinois, several (Maryland and Massachusetts) have Republican governors, as does VA which is ranked right above us. Plus New Jersey’s Democratic governor barely held off a challenge by a Republican.
- NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 11:21 am:
==Why has JB Pritzker failed to bring a national championship to Illinois?===
Maybe Brad Underwood could help change that instead. And just maybe in a few years, hopefully Bret Bielema.
- cermak_rd - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 11:34 am:
Jocko,
But I’m going to argue that the white working class is not the same composition as it was back then. I’m genX. Many of my friends were the children of factory workers, bakery workers, small time farmers etc. They went to college and aren’t considered part of that class anymore. So at the same time you have had policies that have hurt that class you have also had self selection out of it. And because it is constrained by race (WWC) it is not including a huge chunk of the working class.
- Give Me A Break - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 11:40 am:
“Why has JB Pritzker failed to bring a national championship to Illinois?”
Because Brad Underwood has never gotten past the first weekend of the Big Dance. A Mid Major Coach Porter at Loyola out coached him and sent him packing despite having an All American NBA Point Guard and All Conference Center.
Overpaid, Overrated, Underachieving Underwood.
- ZC - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 11:41 am:
If you look at IL versus our Midwestern brethren, and are trying to figure out, “Why did IL stay Democratic in 2016 when everyone else around us was voting Trump?” then it’s not just Chicago. Other midwestern states have some big cities (and I’ll put Pennsylvania in this conversation, as borderline Midwest).
Illinois is a little bit more white-college-educated, and that helps the Dems these days, but the other big difference is we have way more Latinos / Hispanics / Latinx / whatever your term is, than any other Midwestern state.
The IL GOP’s path back to power is clear. They still have to please the white woman in the Cook County suburbs and the collar counties (Rule No 1 of IL politics: Do not displease the white woman in the Cook County suburbs / collars). But they have to claw back better numbers in the growing outside-Chicago Latino and Hispanic bloc. They should be capable of doing that … But until they don’t, they’re gonna be in the wilderness.
- Huh? - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 11:46 am:
Ranked 43rd, Illinois is going to hell in a hand basket.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 11:55 am:
Do I have thoughts on this?
Of course. It’s an interesting tidbit.
Sometimes, you need to step back and applaud when you read genius, when you get to appreciate greatness.
Take a bow - Michelle Flaherty -, that is restaurant quality. It wins the day.
To the post,
Look at 1995 at the ILGOP
Look at 2020 at the ILGOP
There’s your why Illinois is lucky to be 43rd.
Start there, I’m right with you.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 12:29 pm:
It should be noted, since 1988 Illinois has gone with the popular vote winner each time except 2004 with George W. Bush winning the popular vote, losing Illinois, and winning the presidency.
It’s not that Illinois is “so Blue”, it is, since 1992, Illinois has been a bell weather state to popular vote winners, not necessarily the electoral vote winner and president-elect.
Both Gore and H. Clinton won the popular vote, won Illinois, but lost the electoral college… does that mean Illinois is all that more blue, or more in tune with popular politics of the day?
- Oldtimer - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 12:49 pm:
Interesting that the current Republican bulwarks on the road to 270 electoral college votes, Texas and Florida, are only the 39th and 40th most friendly states. Not much friendlier than Illinois.
- ZC - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 1:01 pm:
For presidential vote, it’s not a perfect pattern, but it’s pretty consistent; in recent years, IL has been voting about 5 percent more Democratic for president than Wisconsin has.
That’s it. Not a chasm. But so many politicians (and political parties) can die on the hill of that last 5 percent. What makes WI an endless battleground, and IL a fairly (but not bulletproof) Dem-leaning state? 5 percent. That’s what IL Republicans need to solve.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 1:07 pm:
One factor keeping the Ds winning the game here is the ability to hold factions together. The gun totin’ Local 150 member from Will County and the community activist from Chicago’s west side share the same party label. The Rs don’t really have that, especially now.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 1:09 pm:
===it’s not a perfect pattern===
Illinois, as a far more diverse state, with the third largest media market, and also being a global leader in agriculture, Wisconsin, or Minnesota for that matter on the other side, are further away from where the country overall votes… same can be said to the contrast to Illinois and Indiana… I view Indiana as a state probably better suited between Alabama and Mississippi, but I digress…
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 1:17 pm:
OW, neither Alabama nor Mississippi brews a beer as good as 3 Floyds. So there’s that.
- Oswego Willy - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 1:34 pm:
- Six Degrees of Separation -
A very important and delicious difference.
:)
- Friendly Bob Adams - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 2:03 pm:
Never thought I would see a statement like “34th most friendly on whiteness”… I’m not familiar with this publication but what are they suggesting about today’s Republican party?
- The Velvet Frog - Thursday, Feb 10, 22 @ 3:44 pm:
If the state is better educated, less white, and less rural than many other states I’m OK with that.
How much of an indication that is of electing a given party, I’m still skeptical.