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Today’s quotable

Wednesday, May 25, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* WTTW

[Cynthia Buckley a sociologist at the University of Illinois Urbana Champaign and a self-described census nerd who uses her demographer skills to dig into the data] said any claim that residents are flocking in or out of Illinois based on a particular administration or policy is “balderdash.”

“The Midwest as a whole is not growing as fast as the Sunbelt. And so unless either the Democrats or the independents can do something about preventing the next polar vortex, I have a real strong suspicion that these claims of ‘we’re doing it right so people are moving in, we’re doing it wrong so people are moving out’ are quite overblown,” Buckley said.

       

38 Comments
  1. - Alice Childress - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 9:17 am:

    I bet “Quality of Life” is a TOP 3 reason people leave the state.


  2. - Concerned Dem - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 9:21 am:

    Ah… I get it now, Republicans’ denial of climate change science wasn’t because they are afraid of change or the possibility that our use of fossil fuels is causing irreparable harm, it was their long term plan to make Illinois the new sunbelt. /s


  3. - PublicServant - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 9:23 am:

    === any claim that residents are flocking in or out of Illinois based on a particular administration or policy is “balderdash.” ===

    I would have used another B word, but that wouldn’t pass the word filter.


  4. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 9:24 am:

    To the post,

    For me, “alternative facts” in relation to the truth of our migration, true census numbers, actual population totals…

    I see this now, not about facts, but about narratives said so often that facts themselves are irrelevant to anyone who wants their “truth” to *be* a fact, a fact not true or… factual.

    The disservice of this last census allows the discussion to fester around the folks wanting to run down Illinois, to pound the table… while actually moving to Chicago, as John Kass did. It’s balderdash and phony and disgusting to the ignorance those want others to embrace.

    If we all can’t agree on the facts, than what exactly are we arguing about to the policies or programs to facts?


  5. - ZC - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 9:24 am:

    It’s getting ever more hot and dry in the Sunbelt. Long term, buying real estate anywhere near the Great Lakes is still a good investment. Kind of depends how old you are.


  6. - Needs Deleted - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 9:28 am:

    ” I have a real strong suspicion”

    Nothing is more compelling than a census nerd with a strong suspicion.


  7. - SWIL_Voter - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 9:32 am:

    Whether it’s pensions or COVID or gun control or healthcare or policing and crime prevention or in/out migration the political discourse is so entirely divorced from reality it’s almost impossible to actually do anything about anything. If the population trend was predictable 25 years ago as yesterday’s article pointed out, why is this a political football? What do we gain by arguing about this? How does this lead to better or any policy? There are hardly any issues left in this country that haven’t been completely overtaken by lunatics who must know they’re lying


  8. - Homebody - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 9:32 am:

    @Oswego Willy: ==I see this now, not about facts, but about narratives says so often that facts themselves are irrelevant to anyone who wants their “truth” to *be* a fact, a fact not true or… factual.==

    The first episode of The Colbert Report aired October 17, 2005. It included a segment called “The Word.” The Word that day was “Truthiness”. The complete abrogation of any perceived obligation to even pretend facts matter started a long time ago in certain segments of the political spectrum.


  9. - Bruce( no not him) - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 9:42 am:

    “balderdash”

    My new favorite word, shortened to BD similar to BS but cooler


  10. - Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 9:43 am:

    I like summer, my favorite season.

    105 degree days for weeks at a time, not so much.

    Enjoy the Sunbelt.


  11. - The Real Downstate - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 9:44 am:

    I like ‘balderdash’ but I prefer ‘hogwash’


  12. - Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 9:47 am:

    -Nothing is more compelling than a census nerd with a strong suspicion.-

    And a PhD in the study of group behavior and the development, structure and functioning of human society. Feel free to compare notes.


  13. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 9:48 am:

    - Homebody -

    Things don’t happen overnight, that’s for sure.

    When the overt part of “something” becomes embraced, it’s almost too late to change course. Yet, that’s exactly what needs to happen. “We’ll see”.


  14. - TheInvisibleMan - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 9:53 am:

    “can do something about preventing the next polar vortex”

    There is some good news about that… well bad news actually.


  15. - Anyone Remember - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 9:59 am:

    ” … can do something about preventing the next polar vortex … .”

    As an immigrant to Illinois, been saying this for decades. Children’s BFFs both moved to the Missouri side of greater St Louis for “lower taxes” … and discovered annual “personal property taxes” on vehicles. While both are still in greater St Louis, one is back on this side of the river.


  16. - Virginia - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 10:10 am:

    “Sun Belt” sounds so much better than “Rust Belt.”


  17. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 10:16 am:

    ===sounds so much better===

    Marketing, it’s all around us.


  18. - Red Ketcher - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 10:19 am:

    Would guess that ” moved to be near children/grandchildren” would be a fairly high percent reason for moving out of IL.


  19. - NIU Grad - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 10:20 am:

    As the Sun Belt addresses the issues of a rising population, Illinois’ next marketing campaign should simply be “We have more fresh water than we know what to do with.”

    We have our faults when it comes to climate, but we definitely have our positives.


  20. - Parker 51 - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 10:22 am:

    Ugh, why do you have to ruin a talking point with facts?


  21. - JS Mill - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 10:27 am:

    =Nothing is more compelling than a census nerd with a strong suspicion.=

    And politicians have a strong sense of pandering.

    =“Truthiness”. The complete abrogation of any perceived obligation to even pretend facts matter started a long time ago in certain segments of the political spectrum.=

    This.

    What is so aggravating to me is the willingness of the candidates (last night) to stay the course on narratives that are demonstrably false because it gets their “base” fired up.


  22. - Leap Day William - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 10:41 am:

    == As an immigrant to Illinois, been saying this for decades. Children’s BFFs both moved to the Missouri side of greater St Louis for “lower taxes” … and discovered annual “personal property taxes” on vehicles. While both are still in greater St Louis, one is back on this side of the river. ==

    This, so much. The other half moved to Illinois from Georgia in 2017 and while she was no fan of the property tax increase or not getting a snow day unless it’s below zero, she was excited to not have to pay Ad Valorem taxes for her county sticker, having a lower personal income tax rate, among other taxes. She was also excited to move somewhere with teachers who are paid well, public transit that actually goes places, interstates that don’t catch on fire, and not have 100+ degree heat index for all of July and August.

    People who move to the South for “lower taxes” but then complain about how they don’t have all the things they used to up North are very special creatures.


  23. - Al - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 11:06 am:

    The 2020 and 2020 U-Haul index has Illinois 49 and California 50 on the net out-flow of rental moving equipment.


  24. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 11:10 am:

    ===U-Haul index===

    … and yet Illinois added nearly a quarter million folks, of course, if you believe…

    Maybe John Kass used a U-Haul… to move to Chicago, amirite?


  25. - Cheswick - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 11:14 am:

    Cynthia’s suspicions are my suspicions.


  26. - NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 11:24 am:

    Time to either redraw the maps yet again or for national adoption of the Wyoming Rule.


  27. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 11:41 am:

    Well… well… well…

    According to the Waffle House Hurricane Index, of all the states with Waffle Houses, Illinois has had the best Waffle House hurricane index score since one opened in Collinsville.

    Take that, “Sun Belt”


  28. - JS Mill - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 12:00 pm:

    =the best Waffle House hurricane index=

    I wonder how their research department stacks up to uhauls? /s


  29. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 12:11 pm:

    === =the best Waffle House hurricane index=

    I wonder how their research department stacks up to uhauls? /s===

    According to much more than lore… FEMA uses the Waffle House Hurricane Index for triage after and act accordingly to that.

    I just like their waffles.

    :)


  30. - Groucho - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 12:20 pm:

    What she says is true to a point. But approximately 90,000 African Americans moved out of Chicago over the last 10 years. Were they leaving because of the weather? Crime, Taxes, Employment and Education still play a role. And what our government does can still make a difference.


  31. - Steve - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 12:29 pm:

    We can hope that improved Census numbers show up in a grow in CPS student population . Chicago did gain population according to the official 2020 number. Hopefully, other positive population metrics will begin to emerge because property and gas taxes are a big burden.


  32. - Anonymous - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 12:52 pm:

    “Sun Belt” sounds so much better than “Rust Belt.”

    Perhaps new names for the “sun belt”, should the “dry as a sun-bleached bone belt”, “blown away in a cloud of debris belt”, or “my electric bill is too d**n high because I have to run the AC all the time belt”.


  33. - Anyone Remember - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 1:50 pm:

    ===But approximately 90,000 African Americans moved out of Chicago over the last 10 years.===

    Rich has covered this before. Several African-American legislators have told him, off the record, they thought this was a deliberate policy of Richard M. Daley. Gentrification continues even though Daley is gone.


  34. - NickNombre - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 2:06 pm:

    As someone who has been planning to retire outside Illinois for a long-time, I’ve been quickly crossing potential retirement destinations off the list over the last few years. The cost of living and overcrowding issues in most of the places I considered retiring to have gone through the roof. These days, it is really hard to find a place that has the same level of services and cost of living as Illinois. You can find better scenery and climate, but the days of the average retiree being able to afford to move to those places are ending. I expect that will cause the net migration to drop over the next few decades.


  35. - H-W - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 2:53 pm:

    Re: The U-Haul Index. I am not surprised that a moving company finds that the largest and third largest states have the highest number of rentals for people leaving. I bet they also found that Wyoming ranks near or dead last. The U-Haul Index is a silly measure of migration trends, since they do not control for population size; rather, they exploit population size effectively.


  36. - H-W - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 3:00 pm:

    Okay, California has the largest population, followed by Texas, Florida and New York. Depending on where our new Census number compares with Pennsylvania, Illinois is now either the 5th or 6th largest state. In any case, ranking high on the U-Haul net out-migration scale is much more a matter of population size than sentiments. It is also likely to be more related to percent rural than to sentiment. And of course, there is always an issue of who college student population size, weather, etc. There are a lot of reasons why a state would be found to rent a lot of U-Haul trailers, including the relative availability of such vehicle in any given state. Still, I bet Wyoming ranks low.


  37. - Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 3:22 pm:

    Enough with “data” from moving companies.

    Not everyone who relocates rent moving vans.


  38. - Da big bad wolf - Wednesday, May 25, 22 @ 4:40 pm:

    === You can find better scenery and climate, but the days of the average retiree being able to afford to move to those places are ending.===
    True but have you considered moving to South America?


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