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Today’s quotable
Wednesday, Aug 12, 2026 - Posted by Rich Miller * Betting on vibes is the dumbest way to lose your money…
Also, traveling to a Wisconsin tourist trap just north of the Illinois border in search of local voters had to be the height (depth) of vibes reporting during that campaign. The scope of the goofiness is downright ridiculous.
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- btowntruth from forgottonia - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:09 pm:
I saw that this morning too.
Also following the reporting on the fit that the MyPillow guy is throwing over his loss in last nights primary.
- Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:13 pm:
“We used to make —- in this country, build —-. Now, it’s just one guy with his hand in another guy’s pocket.” - The Wire.
- Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:18 pm:
And I thought Hong losing was totally predictable. Bernie stayed away, AOC stayed away, the popular two-term governor campaigned for her opponent, and many on the left looked at her baggage and thought she wouldn’t be a good general election candidate. But a bunch of polls had her up double digits, so I get why most people thought she would win.
- James the Intolerant - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:19 pm:
And these markets are not overseen as gambling by our great federal bureaucracy.
- Peoples Republic of Oak Park - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:22 pm:
To be fair betting on the publicly available polling is what created that mess.
- Candy Dogood - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:23 pm:
I think prediction markets are very stupid and they should be illegal. Some specific better categories, such as elections, and man made disasters, should definitely be made illegal, but…
I also think it would be fun to ask Darren Bailey and his attention seeking running mate if they is willing to bet on their own campaign on a prediction market.
Also — Governor looked good yesterday. Darren Bailey needs to take a sincere step back and reconsider all of the comments that he’s made about the Governor’s weight and spend some time looking in the mirror.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:25 pm:
===But a bunch of polls===
Yeah. Primary polls are inherently unreliable because demographic turnout and overall turnout can radically change from election to election.
Early polls also give some candidates the aura of invincibility because people don’t look beyond today’s numbers to what is coming down the pike. For instance: Raja.
We definitely need a stupid tax on these markets. If people are so willing to throw their money away on ill-informed vibes, then taxpayers should be getting a big cut of that.
- Candy Dogood - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:27 pm:
===For instance: Raja===
I enjoy that this is his new legacy in Illinois politics.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:30 pm:
That Cilizza is a subsidiary of Polymarket is least surprising.
Another way to part fools from their money, so to speak.
Congrats to Crowley and his supporters, they made a great comeback. Defunding/abolishing the police is the mother of idiotic policy positions.