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Today’s quotable
Wednesday, Aug 12, 2026 - Posted by Rich Miller * Betting on vibes is the dumbest way to lose your money…
Also, traveling to a Wisconsin tourist trap just north of the Illinois border in search of local voters had to be the height (depth) of vibes reporting during that campaign. The scope of the goofiness is downright ridiculous.
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- btowntruth from forgottonia - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:09 pm:
I saw that this morning too.
Also following the reporting on the fit that the MyPillow guy is throwing over his loss in last nights primary.
- Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:13 pm:
“We used to make —- in this country, build —-. Now, it’s just one guy with his hand in another guy’s pocket.” - The Wire.
- Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:18 pm:
And I thought Hong losing was totally predictable. Bernie stayed away, AOC stayed away, the popular two-term governor campaigned for her opponent, and many on the left looked at her baggage and thought she wouldn’t be a good general election candidate. But a bunch of polls had her up double digits, so I get why most people thought she would win.
- James the Intolerant - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:19 pm:
And these markets are not overseen as gambling by our great federal bureaucracy.
- Peoples Republic of Oak Park - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:22 pm:
To be fair betting on the publicly available polling is what created that mess.
- Candy Dogood - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:23 pm:
I think prediction markets are very stupid and they should be illegal. Some specific better categories, such as elections, and man made disasters, should definitely be made illegal, but…
I also think it would be fun to ask Darren Bailey and his attention seeking running mate if they is willing to bet on their own campaign on a prediction market.
Also — Governor looked good yesterday. Darren Bailey needs to take a sincere step back and reconsider all of the comments that he’s made about the Governor’s weight and spend some time looking in the mirror.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:25 pm:
===But a bunch of polls===
Yeah. Primary polls are inherently unreliable because demographic turnout and overall turnout can radically change from election to election.
Early polls also give some candidates the aura of invincibility because people don’t look beyond today’s numbers to what is coming down the pike. For instance: Raja.
We definitely need a stupid tax on these markets. If people are so willing to throw their money away on ill-informed vibes, then taxpayers should be getting a big cut of that.
- Candy Dogood - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:27 pm:
===For instance: Raja===
I enjoy that this is his new legacy in Illinois politics.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:30 pm:
That Cilizza is a subsidiary of Polymarket is least surprising.
Another way to part fools from their money, so to speak.
Congrats to Crowley and his supporters, they made a great comeback. Defunding/abolishing the police is the mother of idiotic policy positions.
- Frida's Boss - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:47 pm:
It was an interesting night watching the results.
- DS - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 12:52 pm:
The headline of that Shia Kapos brat stop blog was designed in a lab to make everybody mad.
- Friendly Bob Adams - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 1:04 pm:
Hong was doing well until she dumped on Thanksgiving. What was she thinking? Everybody loves Thanksgiving. You eat, drink, watch football and don’t have to buy anyone a present.
- Alton Sinkhole - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 1:08 pm:
I like Shia more than 99% of commenters on that site but yeah that “Cleatus Safari” (hat tip to David Ley of Defector) she did in Wisconsin was laughable. Even funnier that it was in one of the small handful of counties Hong finished first in.
- Streator Curmudgeon - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 1:18 pm:
==We definitely need a stupid tax on these markets.==
If we could get a stupid tax passed in the U.S., we’d have enough money to fund everything.
- Dotnonymous x - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 1:31 pm:
“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits”. - A. Einstein
- Chicagonk - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 1:35 pm:
In retrospect, the polls didn’t make a lot of sense. Wisconsin isn’t a blue state. You would think voters would think about electability.
- AlabamaShake - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 1:38 pm:
**Hong was doing well until she dumped on Thanksgiving. What was she thinking?**
She dumped on Thanksgiving long before she was running for Governor. Her response to questions about her past comments exacerbated the problem.
- Resign - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 1:38 pm:
Almost as bad as roaming the Brat Stop is quoting Kent Redfield or Dick Simpson in your political story. Find someone who has actually run a race or was elected in the 2020’s.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 1:40 pm:
===You would think voters would think===
I don’t think they fully tuned in until after the Michigan primary.
Again, if you look at Raja’s polls, he was inevitable until he wasn’t.
Way too many people look at snapshots in time and believe nothing will ever change. Just totally ridiculous.
- Dotnonymous x - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 1:52 pm:
Betting on political outcomes is like betting on which way the water in a stream will go when it hits the rock.
“The only constant in life is change” - Heraclitus
- Dotnonymous x - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 1:55 pm:
When they tell me , “It’s a lock”…I just smile.
- Dotnonymous x - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 2:05 pm:
Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle plus chaotic Brownian motion make systems predictions unreliable to impossible…and who wants to hear that?
- Source: I live in reality - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 2:06 pm:
If you bet money on Hong winning, the same person who sincerely believed we should “cancel Thanksgiving” just six years ago, who was running for *checks notes* Governor of WISCONSIN, maybe you deserve to lose your money for that insanity. The least we could do is properly tax these prediction market bets because they’re just as goofy and vibes based as casino slot machines.
- George Ryan Reynolds - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 2:12 pm:
Take issue with characterizing Mr. Cilliza as a journalist.
- Think Again - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 2:23 pm:
=Also, traveling to a Wisconsin tourist trap just north of the Illinois border=
As a parent of a Marquette grad, the Brat Stop was a must-stop on my way home. Not sure about the politics of the place, but I once almost got assaulted for the simple offense of wearing a Bears. Other than that, the place is awesome.
- low level - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 2:25 pm:
For every person who bought Hong Yes, another person took the No and did very well. People are competing against each other, not the house as on Draft Kings and other platforms. Its amazing to me how many people dont seem to understand that basic principle.
Three days ago, Crowley was at 15 cents yes. Congratulations to anyone who bought that. Well done.
As for taxing / hating prediction markets, whatever. They are fun. Dont like them? Dont participate.
- Contrarian - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 2:29 pm:
When Francesca Hong had Hasan Piker and Ilhan Omar at one of her closing campaign rallies, I figured that she was going to lose by turning off moderates. Remember, Wisconsin is unlike Illinois. It is an open primary state. Voters are free to cross over and oppose candidates in the primary.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 2:31 pm:
=== Dont like them? Dont participate.===
Fine by me, but the stupid tax demand still stands.
- Demoralized - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 3:17 pm:
==They are fun==
We tax a lot of things that are “fun.”
This is gambling. Pure and simple. It should be treated as such.
- Stephenson County - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 3:43 pm:
- Contrarian - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 2:29 pm:
When Francesca Hong had Hasan Piker and Ilhan Omar at one of her closing campaign rallies, I figured that she was going to lose by turning off moderates. Remember, Wisconsin is unlike Illinois. It is an open primary state. Voters are free to cross over and oppose candidates in the primary. Illinois is also an open primary state. You can pick either party. In 2024 I voted GOP primary. This year I voted Democratic primary. Some states, Pennsylvania for example, you can only vote in the primary of the party you are registered. In Illinois we don’t register voters by party.
- Steve - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 4:05 pm:
Placing money on DSA candidates like Comrade Hong in elections outside of university towns and certain big cities does contain risk. Wisconsin isn’t Illinois.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 4:42 pm:
The problem with the prediction markets is it gives vibes of objectivity because it involves numbers. It is not like Shia wrote “I went to the Brat Shop, and there is a 10% chance Crowley will win.”
- OneMan - Wednesday, Aug 12, 26 @ 10:05 pm:
== Way too many people look at snapshots in time and believe nothing will ever change. Just totally ridiculous. ==
Just ask Senator Blair Hull