After a hard-fought campaign in the 13th Congressional District, Betsy Dirksen Londrigan congratulated Rodney Davis on his win in last night’s election. Londrigan released the following statement on Wednesday afternoon, following the tallying of absentee and provisional ballots:
“This afternoon, I called Congressman Rodney Davis and congratulated him on his win. While this outcome was not the one we had hoped for, it has been one of the greatest honors of my life to spend the last 16 months in this race. I put over 60,000 miles on my car, traveling across Central Illinois and meeting with thousands of hard working people. We focused on issues that matter most to our neighbors and communities — like access to quality and affordable health care and protections for those with pre-existing conditions.
“During this campaign, big promises were made about protecting people with pre-existing conditions. Those making the promises must be held accountable, and the fight for access to affordable health care must continue. Again, I want to thank my family, staff, volunteers, and our supporters across Illinois’ 13th Congressional District for a hard-fought and meaningful campaign.”
She’s right about Davis’ promises. He promised over and over that he wouldn’t harm pre-existing condition coverage. Speaking as someone with a pre-existing condition, I’m gonna remember that and hold him to it. Hopefully this will be a lesson for him and he can finally be the congressman I always thought he could be - someone who was eager to work across the aisle to get good things done for his district and his country. He went native out in DC. He needs to get back to being Rodney Davis.
Now the bailout of your junk rated government will accelerate in earnest as your favored sons and daughters use the rest of the state as an ATM to pay for your bloated, inefficient and corrupt institutions.
That’s really what last night was about.
In case the rest of you willfully uninformed voters across the state were confused about what is next.
* Press release with all emphasis in the original…
To: Interested Parties
FR: Democratic Party of Illinois
RE: Illinois Voters Roundly Reject Republican Attacks on Speaker Madigan
Last night’s election results definitively proved that the Rauner Republican playbook of attempting to make the entire 2018 election a referendum on Speaker Madigan, to distract from Republicans’ record, is a failure. Rauner and the Republican Party spent several years and hundreds of millions of dollars focused on tearing down one man, and last night that strategy definitively failed for Republicans up and down the ballot who joined in the effort.
Of the dozens of Illinois Republicans that ran on a platform tying their opponent to Speaker Madigan, nearly every one lost. Some attempts were hateful, others laughable, including suggestions that the Speaker is committing acts of violence against others, but after the votes have been counted, the tactic was a clear failure. It failed because Speaker Madigan and the Democratic Party of Illinois are champions of smart economic and social policies that better the lives of Illinoisans and create a state that works for all of us.
GOP Tactic Using Speaker Madigan as a Foil for Dem Candidates Fails
For most of his term, Governor Rauner has consistently attacked Speaker Madigan as a strategy to distract voters and the media from his own failures and poor decision-making in office. This election cycle, Republican candidates throughout Illinois mirrored Rauner’s actions and took part in the strategy in a desperate attempt to defeat their Democratic opponents by attaching them to Speaker Mike Madigan.
What did these GOP candidates get from these attacks? A clear rejection by Illinois voters. Nearly every one of the Republican candidates in Illinois who used this cheap tactic lost their elections. In fact, in a definitive statewide swing towards the Democratic party, Illinois Democrats added at least two U.S. congressional seats and six state house seats that gave Illinois Democrats a supermajority in the state’s House of Representatives.
Examples include:
• Bruce Rauner (R) v J.B. Pritzker (D)
• Erika Harold (R) v Kwame Raoul Raoul (D)
• Tim Schneider (R) v Kevin Morrison (D)
• Seth McMillan (R) v Andy Manar (D)
• Tonia Khouri (R) v Karina Villa (D)
• Eddie Corrigan (R) v Mark Walker (D)
• Peter Breen (R) v Terra Costa Howard (D)
• Christine Winger (R) v Diane Pappas (D)
• Jerry Long (R) v Lance Yednock (D)
• Sheri Jesiel (R) v Joyce Mason (D)
• Peter Roskam (R) v Sean Casten (D)
• Randy Hultgren (R) v Lauren Underwood (D)
It’s time for Illinois Republicans to recognize that their failed record for Illinois families is the problem. As Des Plaines Democratic State Representative Marty Moylan said:
“Mike Madigan is not the problem that we have in the state of Illinois. We have a leader. The governor is supposed to be the leader. Let him start leading and stop blaming Madigan for all of his problems.”
Voters Care About Action, Not Talk
Attempts to distract voters from the issues with campaign ads portraying opponents as “puppets” of Speaker Madigan not only tried to smear each opponent’s character, but also encouraged hateful rhetoric. One ad sounded a disturbing dog-whistle for discrimination against the LGBTQ community.
When they fill out their ballot, voters care about the pocketbook issues that impact their daily lives. A national ABC News–Washington Post poll leading up to the election found that the economy and health care are among the top issues for voters. The same was true for Illinois voters. In a late September poll, conducted by Center for State Policy and Leadership, University of Illinois Springfield and NPR Illinois, state voters reported the economy as their number one issue, then health care, followed by race relations and immigration.
Most notably, voters listed Speaker Madigan dead last among important issues for the next Governor in an October tracking poll.
While the GOP wasted time on cheap attacks, they ignored long-standing advice from political scientists, strategists and candidates from both sides of the political aisle: voters care about “pocketbook issues.”
“It’s focusing on local issues, not distancing or anything strategic like that but more so focusing on issues people care about.” … “Voters have a unique ability to cut through the clutter and focus on issues that actually have an impact on their daily lives,” - Jesse Hunt, spokesperson for the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee.
“But the bottom line is people are worried about getting their kids through college, making ends meet, and keeping their family running. Those are the things that they focus on.” - Governor Roy Cooper, North Carolina (D)
Madigan’s Record of Results for Illinois
The GOP’s attempt to attach their opponents to Speaker Madigan backfired for multiple reasons. Most importantly because Speaker Madigan is a champion of smart economic and social policies that protect Illinois residents, workers and families.
The GOP attacks against Democrats with ties to Speaker Madigan underestimated Illinois voters who understand that Speaker Madigan’s Democratic leadership has provided real, tangible economic benefits to the people and families of this state.
Illinois Democrats Will Tackle the Real Issues
Voting is a directly personal matter. A typical voter isn’t swayed by smear tactics or petty attempts to mischaracterize candidates. Instead, they want to know that the candidate who earns their vote will work to push forward the policies that directly and positively impact their lives.
Now that the elections are over, Speaker Michael Madigan, as the leader of the Democratic Party of Illinois, will continue to work with his colleagues to tackle the real issues.
Democrats in Illinois are united and ready to work together to advance policies that better the daily lives of all Illinoisans. Speaker Madigan has pledged to continue his work prioritizing policies that protect women’s rights, create a safer work environment for all, strengthen the economy, and create a fairer tax system that can work for all Illinois families.
The GOP attacks were a desperate, out of touch attempts to fracture the party and underestimate voters. They failed. Speaker Madigan and the Democratic Party of Illinois are ready to move forward and continue to make Illinois a better place to live.
Like I said earlier, I think where the Madigan attacks failed was also where the races were so thoroughly nationalized against DC that they fell by the wayside.
The last piece needed for total Democratic control of all the levers of power in Springfield fell into place today when late election returns showed that the party will have a supermajority in the Illinois House—potentially clearing the way to adopt the graduated income tax pushed by Gov.-elect J.B. Pritzker.
Final or near final returns showed that House Speaker Mike Madigan picked up seven seats, mostly in the Chicago suburbs, while losing just one, in far southern Illinois. That would give the Dems a net pickup of six, moving them to 73 total House members.
That’s significant because a supermajority of 71 votes is needed to pass and submit to voters a constitutional amendment authorizing the graduated income tax, a top Pritzker priority. Put a different way, though Madigan normally is very reluctant to move on revenue-raising bills without GOP buy-in, there are enough House Democrats to move ahead anyway even if the Republicans balk.
There’s also the possibility the Democrats could add one vote to that total, with two candidates vying for what had been a Republican-held seat in the Lake Barrington area separated by one vote.
Now is the time for [Pritzker] — and nobody else — to roll out the specifics of what a progressive income tax for Illinois should look like. Tell us what the rates would be. Tell us what the income brackets, deductions and exemptions should be.
Pritzker said over and over during his campaign that those rates would be negotiated with Democratic and Republican legislators and other stakeholders. I didn’t like it, but he won. And so if he rolled the rates out now, he’d be going back on his pledge and he’d also undercut his proposal.
Just give it a chance to percolate like he said it would.
* Simply put, the election was nationalized and that proved more powerful in suburbia and the Metro East than the “Because… Madigan!” chant…
After nearly four years of being vilified by the governor from one end of the state to the other, Mike Madigan appears to have gotten more powerful.
Voters in suburban counties strongly favored blocking the creation of a statewide property tax in Tuesday voting, despite the fact that no statewide property tax has yet been proposed.
An advisory referendum on ballots in DuPage, Kane and Lake counties and Cook County’s Hanover Township asked voters whether the state Legislature should be permitted to institute a property tax of 1 percent of home value. In each of the four jurisdictions, at least 60 percent of the votes cast favored blocking such a tax.
The ballot measure refers to an idea that a trio of economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago floated in May as a way to pay off the state’s $129.1 billion in unfunded pension obligations.
Beyond the paper the economists wrote, there has been no organized effort to institute a statewide property tax, but Kurt Kojzarek, a Kane County board member who supported blocking the idea, said the votes served an important purpose as a proactive warning to legislators.
“Nobody in the Legislature would bring forth a tax proposal like that in election season,” Kojzarek said today. “But in January or February (2019) they might, and this vote sends a pretty good message to the General Assembly that the idea is a nonstarter.”
Commissioner Kojzarek has no idea what he’s talking about. Nobody, but nobody is gonna back a statewide property tax surcharge. If they do, they’ll never get a co-sponsor.
Rauner campaigned for re-election on the notion that re-electing him was Illinois’ “last chance,” the same sky-is-falling narrative pushed by the state’s largest newspaper.
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A north suburban Statehouse seat remains a tossup after Tuesday’s polling totals show the candidates are separated by just one vote.
Republican Helene Miller Walsh, who was appointed to the seat in August after her predecessor Nick Sauer’s abrupt resignation, garnered 25,106 votes, while her Democratic opponent Mary Edly-Allen’s total stands at 25,105. […]
The race now could hinge on remaining provisional ballots and mail-in ballots, and could take up to two weeks to decide.
Provisional ballots — those cast by voters whose eligibility is in question — will continue to be evaluated and, where found valid, counted until 14 days after the election. Mail-in ballots continue to arrive, and those postmarked by election day will also be counted, explained election officials in Lake County, where all but one precinct in the 51st House District is located.
There are actually three things to watch here: 1) Mail-in ballots that haven’t yet been received or counted; 2) Provisional ballots; 3) A large number of challenges to mail-in ballots (particularly of signatures), mainly by Republicans. Those signatures are a tough issue because getting them approved requires a signed and notarized affidavit.
Even so, the odds appear to be against Rep. Walsh at the moment. We’ll see. Up to the lawyers now.
* Meanwhile, this outcome was last night’s shocker…
Newcomer Democratic candidate Anne Stava-Murray narrowly beat incumbent Republican state Rep. David Olsen in the 81st House District race.
Unofficial counts of all precincts in DuPage and Will counties show Stava-Murray with 23,671 votes to Olsen’s 23,326 votes.
* Stava-Murray raised almost no money, and is repeatedly on record as opposing House Speaker Michael Madigan. From her Facebook page this past April…
Deeply disappointed in today’s vote that keeps Speaker Madigan the Chair of the (D) party of IL (DPI). I will not accept funding or staff from DPI while he remains the leader.
Some people say: why not? (R)s will still call you a puppet, might as well take the money. To that I say, 3 things…
ONE: for a party that claims to support #endcitizensunited; this (D) machine controls big money and campaign messaging. I refuse to sell out the voice of my district for the chance at a pyrrhic victory.
TWO: for a party that claims to support labor; this (D) machine provides staffers unacceptable wages/working conditions. #clipboardsandcontracts
THREE: for a party that claims to support women; this (D) machine allowed Springfield to remain rife with sexual harassment and retribution for reporting. Ongoing coverups silence real change being made. #TimesUp
Fear and intimidation are used by this machine to silence voices before they speak a word of dissent. I believe dissent is patriotic; we need change for IL and that change cannot be brought by Madigan as Chair of the party.
I will gladly face whatever consequences come my way as a result of speaking up; because the cost of staying silent is too great.
Plain and simple, Rep. Olsen blew it. The HGOPs made some last-minute expenditures there, but the candidate has to work. He was spotted planting yard signs for other Republican candidates the other day.
President Donald Trump on Wednesday is scorching House Republicans who did not embrace him and lost election bids on Tuesday, including Rep. Peter Roskam, R-Ill.
“Peter Roskam didn’t want the embrace,” Trump said.
Democratic first-time candidate Sean Casten beat Roskam to represent the Illinois 6th congressional district. Roskam kept his distance from Trump in a district that went for Hillary Clinton over Trump in 2016. Casten linked Roskam to Trump throughout his campaign.
At a White House news conference, Trump noted the contenders who ran with him and won, including Illinois GOP Reps. Michael Bost and Rodney Davis.
Every Republican congressional candidate lost in DuPage County, the heart of Roskam’s district. It was a no-brainer for Bost and Davis to embrace the president because they represent Trump Countr. Roskam does not. The area is historically Republican, but it’s not “Trump Republican.” No disrespect intended, but it just doesn’t make much logical sense to equate those districts.
As voters cast ballots for governor and members of Congress in Tuesday’s elections, AP VoteCast found that 33 percent of Illinois voters said the country is on the right track, compared with 67 percent who said the country is headed in the wrong direction. […]
A majority of voters in Illinois had negative views of Trump: 62 percent said they disapprove of how he is handling his job as president, while 38 percent said they approve of Trump.
And that’s statewide, so those results are diluted by the more rural areas that support the POTUS. Imagine what they’re like in the suburbs, most of which turned pretty darned “blue” this week.
Roskam had his own issues, but a failure to embrace the president wasn’t one of them.
* Related…
* How the SALT tax doomed Peter Roskam: Two key authors of the GOP tax overhaul—Illinois’ Peter Roskam and Minnesota’s Erik Paulsen—were among the casualties as voters vented frustration over a new cap on state and local tax deductions.
That is the kind of wrongheaded thinking that got us into this mess.
“Governors own,” but you do not govern successfully by making the fixation of blame your primary objective.
Yes, Republicans are in the minority, but they still hold public office, they still bear some responsibility, and they should not abdicate all responsibility or refuse to work with Democrats just because they are hoping by doing so they can make Pritzker fail.
Senator DeWitte and Senator-elect Gillespie both need to represent not just the people who elected them, but also the people who voted against them. The 48% who voted against Senator DeWitte don’t want him to be an automatic No vote on every idea Democrats offer, and I am betting that alot of the folks who voted for him share that view.
By the same token, the 48% who voted against Gillespie do not want their Senator to vote to cram everything through the Senate just because Democrats are in the majority so they can. And I bet alot of their Democratic neighbors share the same view.
Purple districts, folks. A lot of purple districts, and we need a lot more purple thinking.
After winning yesterday’s gubernatorial election by 15 points, today, Governor-elect JB Pritzker announced his Transition Committee and his administration’s Chief of Staff. Serving as his Transition Committee Chair is Lieutenant Governor-elect Juliana Stratton and campaign manager Anne Caprara will serve as chief of staff.
“I am honored to be chairing the transition committee with a remarkable group of leaders who represent the diversity and strength of our state,” said Lieutenant Governor-elect Juliana Stratton. “From day one, JB and I have made a commitment to making sure Illinoisans across the state have a seat at the table as we build an administration to put Springfield back on the side of working families.”
Chair, Lieutenant Governor-elect Juliana Stratton
Co-Chair, Barbara Bowman
Co-Chair, Mike Carrigan
Co-Chair, Former Governor Jim Edgar
Co-Chair, Sol Flores
Co-Chair, Marty Nesbitt
TRANSITION COMMITTEE STAFF
Chief of Staff, Anne Caprara
Transition Director, Nikki Budzinski
Deputy Transition Director, Sean Rapelyea
Senior Advisor, Former Comptroller Dan Hynes
Senior Advisor, State Representative Christian Mitchell
Senior Advisor, Michael Sacks
Counsel, Jesse Ruiz
TRANSITION COMMITTEE MEMBERS
Chair, Lieutenant Governor-elect Juliana Stratton: State Representative Juliana Stratton has been serving the public, solving problems, and fighting for what’s right throughout her career. As a state representative for the 5th District, Stratton has worked to reform our criminal justice system, raise the minimum wage, and protect a woman’s right to choose. As the Director of the Center for Public Safety and Justice at the University of Illinois at Chicago, she worked to build trust between law enforcement officers and the communities they serve. She graduated with a B.S. from University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a J.D. from DePaul University and is a proud former delegate at the Illinois Women’s Institute for Leadership. Stratton was born and raised on the South Side of Chicago and currently resides in Bronzeville.
Co-Chair, Barbara Bowman: Barbara Bowman is a nationally recognized advocate for early childhood education and is the Co-Founder of the Erikson Institute and an Irving B. Harris Professor of Child Development. She has worked as Chief Officer for early childhood education for the Chicago Public Schools and served as a consultant to U.S. Secretary of Education during President Obama’s first term. She is a professor, author and award winner.
Co-Chair, Michael Carrigan: Michael Carrigan is currently president of the Illinois AFL-CIO and will be a partner in putting Springfield back on the side of working families. He has served as Secretary-Treasurer of the Illinois AFL-CIO for seven years before becoming president. Prior, he was Business Manager and Financial Secretary for IBEW Local 146 in Decatur from 1992 to 2000. Carrigan served as a journeyman wireman in Decatur before becoming Assistant Business Manager of Local 146.
Co-Chair, Former Governor Jim Edgar: Governor Jim Edgar served as the 38th Governor of Illinois and brings decades of government experience to his role on the transition. During his time as governor, he eliminated a backlog of $1 billion of unpaid health care bills, provided income tax relief and left an unprecedented $1.5 billion in the treasury for his successor. After retiring from elective office, he has continued his commitment to responsible and responsive government as a distinguished fellow at the University of Illinois’ Institute of Government and Public Affairs and he spearheads the Edgar Fellows program.
Co-Chair, Sol Flores: Sol Flores is an emerging leader in her community with a strong knowledge of the social service structure. She is Founding Executive Director of La Casa Norte and founded the organization in 2002. La Casa Norte is a nonprofit organization that provides housing and social services to homeless Latino and African American youth and families in Chicago. She was raised by a single mother who came to Chicago from Puerto Rico and has been recognized as a national Champion of Change for her work by the Obama White House.
Co-Chair, Marty Nesbitt: Martin Nesbitt will bring his extensive business experience to focus on creating jobs and building an inclusive economy that works for everyone. Nesbitt is the Co-CEO of the Vistria Group, LLC and prior to that was the CEO of the Parking Spot, an executive with Pritzker Realty Group, L.P and an Equity Vice President and Investment Manager at LaSalle Partners. He was also the National Treasurer of President Obama’s 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns. Martin serves on the Board of Directors of FowardLine Financial and Vanta Education. He serves on the Board of Directors of CenterPoint Energy, Norfolk Southern Corporation and American Airlines Groups, he is a Trustee of Chicago’s Museum of Contemporary Art and Chairman of the Barack Obama Foundation.
TRANSITION COMMITTEE STAFF
Anne Caprara will serve as Chief of Staff for the administration and senior advisor during the transition. Anne Caprara recently served as campaign manager for JB Pritzker and Juliana Stratton’s gubernatorial campaign. Caprara is a political professional with over 17 years of experience in Democratic campaigns and legislative offices, Caprara has managed and consulted with candidates and elected officials at every level of state and federal government. Caprara served as chief of staff to Congresswoman Betsy Markey’s from 2008 until 2010. Before that, Caprara served as Chief of Staff for Ohio Congresswoman Betty Sutton. Caprara also served as political director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Executive Director of Priorities USA during the 2016 election cycle. She obtained her Masters degree from George Washington University and her undergraduate degree from American University.
Nikki Budzinski will serve as Transition Director. Nikki Budzinski served as Senior Advisor to the JB Pritzker for Governor campaign. Budzinski led JB Pritzker’s exploratory effort for Governor and in her latest role she advised the campaign on political strategy, messaging and outreach. From 2015-2016, Budzinski served as the Labor Campaign Director on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Presidential Campaign. Prior, Budzinski worked in the labor movement for ten years in Washington, DC, working for the Laborers International Union of North America, International Association of Fire Fighters and United Food and Commercial Workers Unions. Budzinski is a Peoria native and worked for Comptroller Dan Hynes from 1999-2004 in Springfield, Illinois, serving in numerous roles within the Office of the Comptroller and working on both Comptroller Hynes’ reelection campaign and the 2004 U.S. Senator primary election.
Sean Rapelyea will serve as Deputy Transition Director. Sean Rapelyea served as Political Director for JB for Governor He previously served as Illinois Political Director for the Hillary For America campaign during the general election, where she garnered a 17–point win margin. Rapelyea previously served as Deputy Director of Government Affairs for the Office of the Mayor in Chicago after working as a Regional Field Director and Advisor to Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s 2011 and 2015 re-election campaigns. In 2010, he worked on Arkansas Senator’s Blanche Lincoln’s primary, runoff, and general election campaign.
Former Comptroller Dan Hynes will serve as a senior advisor. Dan Hynes currently serves as a senior executive at UBS Asset Management in Chicago, after a distinguished 12-year career in public service as the Comptroller for the State of Illinois. Hynes was elected Comptroller in 1998 as the youngest state constitutional officer since World War II. He was re-elected in 2002 and 2006 by wide margins. In 2011, President Barack Obama named Hynes as the United States Observer to the International Fund for Ireland, which makes investments in Northern Ireland for the purpose of promoting peace and stability in the region. Hynes also serves a member of the Democratic National Committee.
State Representative Christian Mitchell will serve as a senior advisor. Christian Mitchell is the State Representative for the 26th District and Executive Director of the Democratic Party of Illinois. Mitchell began his career as a community organizer, working with churches on the south side of Chicago. He went on to become a trusted advisor to reform minded political leaders. He served as a deputy field director on Lisa Madigan’s re-election campaign, managed the city council race of former 4th Ward Alderman Will Burns, and was Midwest Paid Media and Polling Director for President Obama’s re-election campaign in 2012. He has consulted for State Assembly and Congressional races across the country, and was a Senior Advisor to Senator Tammy Duckworth’s successful 2016 race. Before being elected to office, Mitchell also served on senior staff for Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle.
Michael Sacks will serve as a senior advisor. Sacks is the Chairman and CEO of GCM Grosvenor. Grosvenor specializes in the management of multimanager investment portfolios and is a leader in the alternative investment industry. Prior to joining Grosvenor in 1990 he was an Associate with Harris Associates, L.P. He graduated from Tulane University and received his M.B.A and Juris Doctor from Northwestern University. He serves as the Vice Chairman of the World Business Chicago Board of Director and is active in various philanthropic and community activities. He and his wife, Cari have three children.
Jesse Ruiz will serve as counsel to the transition. Ruiz is a Partner at Drinker Biddle and is the President of Chicago Park District Board of Commissioners. He currently serves as a member of the firm’s Diversity and Inclusion Committee. Ruiz has served as Vice President of Chicago Board of Education and Chairman of the Illinois State Board of Education and President of the Hispanic Lawyers Association of Illinois. He was appointed to serves on the U.S. Department of Education Equity and Excellence Commission.
* This may or may not mean anything, but likely Chicago mayoral candidate Comptroller Susana Mendoza won the city with 696,596 votes. Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, an already declared mayoral candidate, won the city with 674,357 votes.
So, Preckwinkle scored 22,239 fewer votes than Mendoza even though Preckwinkle was unopposed yesterday. There was obviously a sizable undervote.
Sheriff Tom Dart, by the way, is even lower on the ballot than Preckwinkle and was also unopposed and still got 711,564 votes, more than both Mendoza and Preckwinkle.
…Adding… A commenter mentioned something, so I checked it out. Mendoza received more votes than Preckwinkle in Preckwinkle’s own 4th Ward. And Sheriff Dart also outpolled Preckwinkle in that ward.
* By the way, the ward with the highest percentage turnout yesterday was the 47th, at 76.2 percent. The ward with the greatest numerical turnout was the 32nd, with 24,051. The Southwest Side’s 19th Ward was a close second.
* I asked the Chicago Board of Elections Commission for an age breakdown of yesterday’s vote…
Those are unofficial results as of 10:59 this morning.
The big news is that Democrats made modest gains while Republicans held their robust lead in terms of legislative control. Democrats gained control of six chambers, although Republicans still have a sizable overall advantage in total legislative chambers: R: 61, D: 37. That tallies to 98 chambers because Nebraska’s unicameral Legislature is technically nonpartisan.
In terms of overall legislative control (both House and Senate), Dems gained control of four on Tuesday. Republicans will control 30 versus the Democrats’ 18 when sessions convene in January. Minnesota is now the only state where legislative control is divided. It’s the lowest number of divided legislatures in more than 100 years, matching 1914 when Montana was the only state with a split legislature.
As for state control, which includes the governor along with the legislature, Democrats went from controlling eight to 14. […]
More than 330 seats nationwide shifted from Republican to Democrat. That is short of the typical losses suffered by the party in the White House. The average loss to the president’s party in midterms since 1902 is 424 legislative seats. […]
It is very likely that more women will serve in state legislatures come January than at any point in American history. The numbers are still being crunched.
Democratic State Senator Kwame Raoul in the race of Illinois Attorney General Tuesday night. Republican challenger Erika Harold called him to concede the race about an hour and a half after the polls closed.
The two had been locked in a tight race, with polls narrowing in the days before the election.
You don’t go from being “locked in a tight race with polls narrowing in the days before the election” to an 11-point, 471-thousand-vote win on election day. C’mon. People got carried away with the rumors and now they’re standing by them. Buzz ain’t always what it appears to be.
I mean, not only did Raoul get more votes than JB Pritzker, he also won Harold’s home county of Champaign. Yes, she received 176,000 more votes than Gov. Rauner, but Sam McCann took 188,000 votes from Rauner. So there’s that.
Obliterating concerns from some Democrats that the race had tightened in the final days, Kwame Raoul cruised to an easy victory Tuesday over Republican Erika Harold to become Illinois’ first new attorney general in 16 years.
Top party officials reported that late polling showed Raoul with a much smaller lead over Harold than the double-digit advantages enjoyed by other statewide Democratic candidates, including governor front-runner J.B. Pritzker.
The most recent Democratic poll I was told about had Raoul winning by 9. He won by 11.
In a sign of how tight the race had become as Election Day neared, Raoul reported receiving a $1 million donation from House Speaker Michael Madigan’s campaign fund on Friday.
So, you’re saying that a million bucks received just a few days out took it from a “tight” race to a blowout?
* What happened here is that a few weeks ago or so, a Democratic tracking poll had Raoul trailing. But that’s a single one-day poll out of lots, and it’s a mathematically possible that it was an outlier. Scientific polls are accurate to a 95 percent confidence level, which means one in 20 are outliers. It happens.
The Republicans had some polling that showed Raoul with a smallish lead, so the buzz built over time. And, hey, you gotta have some drama, so just about everybody bought into it, even though the Harold campaign was all but dark on TV the final week while Pritzker and others were pumping in millions into Raoul’s effort over the last three weeks to help move his margin up from mid-to-high-single digits to low double-digits.
Raoul didn’t magically pull out a huge win at the 11th Hour “because Madigan.” It was built over time and he earned it. Yeah, I didn’t like his TV ads, but they got stronger toward the end.
The overwhelming media narrative did serve a purpose, however. The warnings of a super-duper close race for an important job probably helped the entire Democratic ticket by motivating some folks to vote.
* Having said all that, I think Harold deserves a lot of credit here. She’s a natural campaigner and had a good team. If the governor had come through with all the money he promised her, she probably would’ve made this a more competitive race. She got game. I hope she runs for something else.
Here’s the first step: Mend the fracture between establishment and conservative Republicans — Rauner supporters and those who backed his primary opponent, Rep. Jeanne Ives — and begin the rebuilding process. Find common ground and bury old grudges. Coalesce around new, fresh leadership in the House and Senate.
The talent is there. House and Senate members who managed to fend off challengers — Sens. Neil Anderson of Andalusia and John Curran of Downers Grove, along with Reps. Mark Batinick of Plainfield, Tom Morrison of Palatine, Tom Demmer of Dixon, Grant Wehrli of Naperville, to name a few — will have to retread this party. And they’ll have to do it without worrying about the next election. Don’t go weak. Go big — that is, as big as a minority party can go. Give the people of Illinois fresh ideas for fixing this state’s government and economy.
So, they want Rep. Batinick (who is up by 692 votes before all mail-in and provisional ballots are counted), Rep. Morrison (who is up by 482 votes before all mail-in and provisional ballots are counted) Rep. Wehrli (who defeated an opponent who had suspended her campaign and didn’t even live in the district and was allegedly sought by the FBI for a case in Texas by just 5 points) to take the lead in the House?
I’m thinking Leader Durkin will be fine.
…Adding… Also, I’m thinking Leader Brady will be fine. The Tribune has been cheerleading Bruce Rauner for more than four years. Maybe it’s time to sit down for a bit.
* The Champaign County Board decided to create a county executive and hold the election in the off-year, perhaps because college students tend not to vote in off years. Champaign County Clerk Gordy Hultgren informs me this position was created by referendum. As you’ll recall from numerous posts over the last couple of days, however, area college students came out in droves. Oops…
With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Democrats have swept all Champaign County [countywide] offices.
— Democrat Darlene Kloeppel won the race for the new position of county executive over current Republican Clerk Gordy Hulten.
— Democrat Aaron Ammons won the race for clerk with 54 percent of the vote over Republican Matt Grandone.
— Democrat Laurel Prussing won the race for treasurer with 54 percent of the vote over incumbent Republican John Farney.
— Democrat George Danos won the race for auditor with 56 percent of the vote over incumbent Republican Diane Michaels.
— And Democrat Dustin Heuerman won the race for sheriff with 55 percent of the vote over Republican Allen Jones.
JB Pritzker defeated Gov. Rauner in the county 55-38.
Champaign County Clerk Gordy Hulten (an old friend of this blog), won his last race four years ago 61-39. He lost for county executive yesterday 53-47. The Democrats didn’t even run candidates for county sheriff and treasurer four years ago.
So far early returns, Speaker Madigan regains supermajority and then some with Terra Costa Howard (Breen), Diane Pappas (Winger), Karina Villa (Fortner seat/Khouri), Walker (Corrigan-David Harris seat).
House Republican leader Jim Durkin of Western Springs said Tuesday’s results showed a gain for Democrats. “We got hit pretty hard, and statewide it was really difficult for the Republicans,” he said. “The governor underperformed in areas that were important to us.”
Durkin also said antipathy toward Trump in the suburbs hurt his party, as evidenced by losses of Republican U.S. Reps. Peter Roskam and Randy Hultgren, even though the president helped Downstate Republicans.
* Related…
* Mark Brown: Bruce Rauner wore out his welcome long ago
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Tier One Targets by Democrats
(HDems on Chicago broadcast TV)
* Click here for the Sun-Times’ state Senate results, click here for the paper’s state House results, click here for their Cook County results and click here for their DuPage County results. The full set of results from the paper is here.
* Illinois Election Data’s results server went down earlier and they can’t get it going again tonight. So, I’m not sure what I’m going to do right now.
…Adding…Click here and head to the live coverage post. I doubt I’ll be posting constant vote totals, but I will post some as well as other stuff.
* I’ll have live election results from our great friend Scott Kennedy at Illinois Election Data tonight. Meanwhile, the Saline County Clerk is also ejecting Republican poll watchers…
Saline Co. Republican Chairman Bob Holmes tells me some of his poll watchers have been thrown out of precincts too. He says he's never seen anything like this with an election.
* Some are uncharitably calling this party “the wake at the Drake”…
If Gov Bruce Rauner wins or finds himself shifting to lame duck tonight he’ll do so at The Drake - the name of the hotel hosting his party and the word for a male duck. I’ll be there for the Trib either way. #instantanalysis#ILgov#MidtermElections
Saw your post about the Rauner campaign bragging about how they’ve done 70,000 doors since last Saturday. I know Casten’s campaign has done 102,000 doors in IL-06 between Saturday and Monday night alone.
…Adding… The Rauner campaign says they actually knocked on 70,000 doors on Saturday alone.
A DuPage County Forest Preserve Commissioner candidate faced problems at the polls in Hinsdale, where he was told he was an inactive voter. Irfan Ibrahim, a Hinsdale resident and a candidate for District 3 Commissioner for the forest preserve, was first asked for two forms of ID and was then told he was not an active voter.
Ibrahim posted on his Facebook page, showing that he has voted in every general election since 2010.
“If you think that voter suppression is not real, it is real,” Ibrahim said in his Facebook video.
“I’m going back out there again to let them know that I am voting today, up and down the ballot,” Ibrahim said. “Voter suppression will not be accepted.”
* They’ve been busy today…
The Democratic Party is Illinois is here to fight for your right to vote
The city has seen [633,597 ballots cast as of 2:50 pm, which is 42 percent turnout], including ballots sent by mail and early voters, said Jim Allen, spokesman for the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners. That puts Chicago on track to reach 50 percent or higher turnout by the end of voting at 7 p.m., he said. […]
“If the pattern follows similar to the primary, we’ll see significant numbers like we did this morning and we could be crossing 50 percent,” Allen said. Chicago could “easily cross — after the evening rush — we should definitely, easily cross the 50 percent [mark]. So now it’s gonna be do we reach 53, 56, what?”
705,869 ballots were cast in the city in 2010 (when Pat Quinn won). 668,033 were cast in 2014 (when Quinn lost). 670,222 were cast in 2006 (when the Democrats swept the board).
It was bad yesterday, even worse today with several hours to go. Illini Union location lines span four floors of stairs, more than a hundred people at least… #twill#ElectionDaypic.twitter.com/zc8W0wI80u
As of 4:30, approximately 753,000 voters have turned out in this election — including Early, Grace & Mail ballots — which translates to a 47.4% turnout.
By comparison, 719,090 suburban Cook residents voted in 2010 and 696,403 voted in 2014. So, they’re already way over both of those totals.
…Adding… Wow…
Chicago election turnout update: At 5 p.m. 722,827 or 48.1 percent. Board projects final figure of 800,000 to 830,000, roughly 53% to 55%. That's numerically highest of an off-year vote since 1982, and likely the highest as a % of registration since 1986.
Turnout update: Suburban Cook County on track for 55% turnout, around 880,000, sez @DavidOrr's office. Chicago at 802,334 at 6:13p.m., 53.4 percent, and should finish around or north of 55%
* Background is here if you need it, but the Saline County Clerk is still behaving badly…
Saline Co. Dems tell me Buchanan's office denied them poll watcher credentials so they had to go through the Il Board of Elections. Poll watchers are appointed by parties & other groups to oversee elections to ensure fairness. They say they've never been denied credentials before
I’m hearing the same thing. She’s actually been going precinct to precinct to try and kick out the Democratic poll watchers. That’s really bizarre behavior.
Chicago officials said they were working to fix issues at precincts in the 42nd Ward and the 5th Ward.
The Chicago Board of Elections confirmed it was going to court to ask a judge to extend voting hours in five precincts in the city. Details on which precincts could be extended weren’t immediately clear.
All Sangamon County polling places opened on time Tuesday morning, and a steady flow of voters were casting ballots, according to County Clerk Don Gray. […]
Meanwhile, Gray said extra voting booths were being sent to at least three locations — St. Agnes Hall, Knights of Columbus No. 364 and Gardner Township Hall.
“We certainly had long lines,” Gray said. “People were anxious to get at it, and because of that, it would help to have a few more resources.” He said he expected the heavy morning turnout to “surface again after work.”
Arrived at my polling place at 5:50 a.m. to beat the rush, they were just starting to get organized and unpack stuff, and they did not start trying to check voters in until about 6:30 a.m.
Nothing but elderly poll workers with no tech skills, no experience with electoral process, and poor communications ability.
They started by demanding that already-registered voters register anew, claiming inaccurately that “that’s how they want us to do it,” then fell to arguing among themselves about how to process people as the line grew to 25+ people.
When they started trying again they immediately crashed or paralyzed all their tech — they had not rehearsed or anything and were entirely flummoxed by the check-in interfaces, etc. — and somehow destroyed my wife’s voter record in the process so she could only get a provisional ballot.
* From ISU…
THIS is voter suppression: offering ONE polling location to a campus of 21,000+ students (AND it’s also open to all of McLean County). Students should not have to wait an hour to cast a vote.
We’ve had students calling the McLean Co. Clerk’s office and Kathy Michael County Clerk said, “it’s an election. This just happens.” It does happen, but it shouldn’t.
Of the 1.5 million registered voters in the City of Chicago, 524,808 people had voted as of 12:50 p.m. That’s 34.9 percent of all registered voters hitting the polls before 1 p.m. on Election Day.
Chicago voter turnout numbers by age group reported before 12:50 p.m. on Election Day:
• Voters age 18 to 24: 25,576 of 139,138 registered voters (18.3 percent)
• Voters age 25 to 34: 100,231 of 352,583 registered voters (28.4 percent)
• Voters age 35 to 44: 85,477 of 272,865 registered voters (31.3 percent)
• Voters age 45 to 54: 82,028 of 232,071 registered voters (35.3 percent)
• Voters age 55 to 64: 94,295 of 228,211 registered voters (41.3 percent)
• Voters age 65 and up: 125,035 of 278,485 registered voters (44.9 percent).
…Adding… GOTV via presidential tweet…
Congressman Randy Hultgren (R) of Illinois is doing a great job. Get out and Vote for Randy - Total Endorsement!
Election Day 2018: Avowed Nazi and Congressional Nominee Art Jones delivers anti-Semitic rant at his polling place while Simon Wiesenthal Center Advisory Board Members Sean Tenner and Reverend Mitchell Johnson distribute materials about his Nazi background. Simon Wiesenthal was history’s most acclaimed Nazi hunter.
Tuesday, Nov 6, 2018 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
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* Pic from a couple of pals who are doing GOTV today. “Do we knock on the door to ask?” one texted. I told them to go for it. “I gotta know the reason behind that”…
So one of them did…
Alas, there was no answer at the door.
* I’m thinking he may be exaggerating a bit here…
“We’ve got the biggest ground game underway in Illinois history.” -Gov. Rauner
Rauner camp says 9.35 million voter contacts since start of 2018
2.35 million doors (including 70,000 since last Saturday) 6 million phone calls 1 million texts
Before daylight there was a line of voters at a precinct at Naperville’s Safety Town, a miniaturized town with tiny buildings and street signs. Several dozen voters shuffled in and out within the first hour, including Elizabeth Dubiel.
“I’m trying to change the momentum of the way things are right now. This is the first midterm I’ve ever voted in. In my whole, I’ve probably voted like three times.”
Her first time voting was for former President Barack Obama. Since then, Dubiel said, she became uninspired with the lack of diversity on the ballot.
“In the past there wasn’t too many women on the ballot. I felt like my vote wasn’t heard, like my vote didn’t count.”
Despite the hope of Democrats for a “Blue Wave,” there were still ticket-splitters out there — even in Chicago.
Diana Brogan, 51, who works in account sales, was one of them. She calls herself a Democrat, but Rauner got her vote for governor.
She called herself a Democrat who voted Republican for governor.
“We need to change it up a little,” Brogan, 51, said after voting at John James Audubon Elementary School, 3500 N. Hoyne Ave. “Rauner is doing an OK job. Madigan needs to move on . . . I feel like the Democrats are controlling too much and not getting anything done.”
* What are you seeing out there? How’s the weather? How’s turnout? How was lunch?
…Adding… Rauner campaign…
This morning, Governor Bruce Rauner and First Lady Diana Rauner voted in Winnetka. After voting, Governor Rauner made the following remarks to the media:
“We just voted. One of the most important elections in Illinois history. Thanks for coming out. Everyone get out and vote, it’s our duty as Americans, it’s our duty as citizens to have our voices heard. We want everyone’s voices heard, let’s get out and vote.”
“I’d like to build on the success we’ve had in our first term. More education funding, want to expand that. Job growth, had great success growing the economy, want to create even more jobs. Would like to bring down our property taxes by getting the mandates off from Springfield and free up our school districts and communities to run themselves as they see fit. And very importantly, I hope we can finally get term limits on our elected officials in my second term.
Illinois’ budget impasse may have also been a drag on employment growth, perhaps even more than the tax increase but passing a budget with the largest permanent income tax hike in state history didn’t improve Illinois’ economic climate.
As even the far-right anti-tax Illinois Policy Institute now mostly admits, the impasse likely did more damage to the state’s job growth than the 2011 and 2017 income tax hikes.
* From Orphe Pierre Divounguy, an economist at the Illinois Policy Institute…
Rich,
Your newsletter today takes our research completely out of context and warrants a correction.
We clearly state in the piece: “Although tax hikes may initially cause tax revenues to increase, the negative economic effects of the 2017 tax hike will overshadow any benefits of additional revenue in the long run.”
We, first, never mention the 2011 tax hike and we say the impasse could have done more damage in terms of growth in the 2017-2018 period – not “likely” did, as you wrote. We clearly share that the potential reason for this is uncertainty about a future tax hike depressed investment that could have yielded jobs growth. The budget impasse was bad but it left open the possibility of no new taxes. Issuing a permanent tax hike will undoubtedly be a larger drag on employment in the long term than the impasse was, as we write in the piece.
Last, the far-right reference is offensive especially in this political climate. And it’s completely unnecessary. Advocating for the overburdened taxpayer, criminal justice reform, wanting retirees to actually keep their pensions rather than see them go bankrupt, etc. is not “far right.”
The organization wants to see state lawmakers make the right reforms before approving a budget, said Kristina Rasmussen, executive vice president of the Illinois Policy Institute.
“No budget is better than a bad budget,” Rasmussen said.
One legislator was called a “f—-ing animal.” Another was told he’d be “hanging from a tree.”
“You are selling your soul to the devil,” said a message to GOP House floor Leader Steven Andersson, who reported receiving a steady flow of abusive text messages and calls — including a death threat. “I’m coming for you,” it said. Now the Illinois State Police are investigating.
The rage unleashed by the vote serves as a reminder of the combustibility of the current political atmosphere, one where a tax increase to avoid a fiscal catastrophe — combined with the perception of partisan betrayal — could set off such an explosive response. […]
Stoking the backlash are well-funded anti-tax groups such as the Illinois Policy Institute, whose staffing exceeds that of some legacy newspapers. That group had warned its subscribers that Andersson and another lawmaker might vote with Madigan. Andersson’s cell phone was somehow distributed as well as those of several other GOP members who voted for the tax hike, Andersson said. The Illinois Policy Institute said Wednesday it does not release or post lawmakers’ cell phone numbers.
* And the group’s reaction?…
hours from junk status and a multibillion dollar tax hike and @politico_il's lead story is mean Facebook comments
* And the letter the House Republicans sent to members?…
Dear House Republican Members,
[The HGOP’s] Digital Media Manager, has prepared the information below to help guide members who experience abusive social media comments.
What to do if you receive threats on Facebook, Twitter or other social media accounts:
* If you feel the threat is imminent call 911
* Report threats of violence immediately to State Police at this phone number: 877-xxx-xxxx
* Then report to social media platform - here’s how
* Facebook:https://www.facebook.com/help/181495968648557?helpref=faq_content
* Twitter:https://support.twitter.com/articles/20169998#whatshouldido
* Or, ask your communications staffer for help
* And, of course, there was also this…
Ya know, sometimes you're flying back from a rally in Charlottesville and inspiration just strikes. #twillhttps://t.co/ew0PG6Oxjh
Since Sept. 1, Pritzker has aired 20,199 ads on TV, and Rauner has shown 16,726 ads, according to figures provided by Advertising Analytics, which tracks ad buys. […]
But the numbers from the race between Hultgren and Underwood may be the most striking according to Advertising Analytics.
Since Sept. 1, Underwood has outspent Hultgren three-to-one: She spent $4.4 million to his $1.4 million. Just as striking is that Underwood’s campaign and Democratic support committees are responsible for 93 percent of the ads that have been on television in that race, 3,577 by Underwood and just 257 by Hultgren.
If Republican voters could sue for political malpractice, Randy Hultgren would be penniless after this election - even if he wins.
Also, Gov. Rauner has been complaining about being outspent by $100 million, but that money has obviously gone into stuff other than TV ads.
* They’ve taken down the paywall on Hannah Meisel’s report on campaign mascots and props. I loved this story so much this morning that I got way behind on writing the subscriber Fax. Have fun…
Some may scoff at or even mock the strategies at work, decrying them as a “dumbing down” of democracy. But political strategists told The Daily Line that when used correctly, these characters and stunts cut through the noise of a seemingly endless political season and deliver a simple message about a candidate’s opponent.
After the chickens, Rauner’s 2014 campaign continued to add to its arsenal of costumed characters as the months progressed, eventually employing a campaign worker to spend days on end dressed up as a cross between then-Gov. Pat Quinn and fairytale character Pinnochio, famous for having a nose that grew every time he lied. This hybrid character, Quinnochio, was often joined by another campaign worker dressed in an orange jumpsuit and a rubber mask of imprisoned ex-Gov. Rod Blagojevich.
But Rauner’s first gubernatorial bid was not the first time an Illinois Republican created spectacles to attract media attention. Many of Rauner’s 2014 campaign staff had come from former U.S. Senator Mark Kirk’s office, where the senator’s 2010 election campaign had found a highly original way and extremely simple way to illustrate the alleged ties between Kirk’s opponent, Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, and the mob.
* The governor’s political body isn’t even cold yet, but possible 2022 gubernatorial hopeful Todd Ricketts was on yesterday’s Republican Party fly-around. And today, Rep. Jeanne Ives’ spokesperson Kathleen Murphy writes this in National Review…
Ives’s candidacy demonstrated that Illinois Republicans gain ground quickly when they engage in ideological confrontation on cultural and economic issues.
Speaker Madigan and his machine may be powerful, but they are wholly unaccustomed to such confrontation from their Republican counterparts. Their ability to handle such an attack has never truly been tested.
ILGOP flacks might brush off the suggestion as “far-right extremism,” but Illinoisans know the difficulties they’re facing. For many, exhausted by the state’s onerous tax burden, lack of opportunity, and moral libertinism, an ILGOP with a strong contrasting vision, adherence to principle, revolutionary instincts, and simple grit would offer reason for optimism.
Comments
There are no guarantees. But as conservative talk-show host Dan Proft puts it, “As long as we’re still here, we might as well fight.”
In Illinois, conservatives have to embrace these challenges for the opportunities they must be. Nationally, the revolt against the big-government “swamp” has been messy. But the ground we now hold is precious. If Illinois offers any lesson to conservatives, it is this: Never Surrender.
Investigators with the Illinois Attorney General’s office have been called to Saline County after county officials voiced concerns that the openness and transparency of this year’s election could be at risk.
Saline County State’s Attorney Jayson Clark said he received a number of complaints Monday morning that County Clerk Kim Buchanan was refusing to allow poll watchers to oversee the processing of early voting results.
“I came right over here and intervened this morning,” Clark said. […]
“This is America,” Clark said. “We have open elections that everyone gets to watch what happens.”
He says this morning was especially important, because due to an equipment malfunction, the county had to rerun all of the early voting ballots through a new machine.
Clark says after getting the poll watchers inside to oversee the processing, Buchanan kicked them out the moment he left.
“She didn’t just kick them out, she built a barricade where they couldn’t even see what was going on back there when they were running the ballots through the machine for the second time,” Clark said. “That’s pretty egregious.”
He says that’s when he got the attorney general’s office involved.
She barricaded herself in her office? What the heck?
* Text messages from Democrats involved with looking into precinct polling place problems…
Kendall County Clerk is now directing precinct judges not to vote any voter who comes to a polling place with mail ballot to vote in person (they bring the ballot to surrender and vote in person). Instead she says they must go to the Clerk’s Office. Under the law they can vote a regular ballot. The Attorney General and State Board were notified.
One of the heaviest D precincts in [Rep. Tom Morrison’s district] has “Road Closed” signs blocking all entrances. Voters are going around
…Adding… Here are pictures of what I am told are the barricades in front of all three entrances to those precinct polling places in Rep. Morrison’s district. Salt Creek Park District, 530 S Williams Ave, Palatine, IL…
There does look to be construction behind that first sign, but not the others.
Sources at the U of I say @ChampCtyClerk@GordyHulten gave in to public pressure and will open a larger space tomorrow. Chancellor Jones offered access to Room 407, a much larger space than Rm 404, to facilitate long voting lines tomorrow. Still awaiting confirmation from Hulten.
“We just did a nine-day bus tour, we covered the entire state of Illinois. And everywhere we went, people came up to me and said, ‘stay strong, don’t back down, don’t give in,’” Rauner said later at the Lisle appearance.
