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Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* One more week has come and gone. Not sure to be happy or what. But the weekend is here and I’m hoping for the best. Have a great one, everybody.

* This is not your usual holiday video, but it’s definitely a catchy tune….


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Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Conaty out at Fox Chicago, and other media news

Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Fox Chicago reportedly didn’t renew Jack Conaty’s contract. Conaty has been the lead political reporter at the station forever. I really like the guy, and this is another major blow to quality political journalism

Conaty’s contract was not renewed, a station spokeswoman confirmed. His last Channel 32 appearance is expected to be on this weekend’s “Fox Chicago Sunday,” which was to be taped Friday and air Sunday morning at 8:30.

Of those who launched WFLD’s news operation under Fox in 1987, Conaty was among the last remaining few still at the station along with 9 p.m. anchor Robin Robinson and reporter Anne Kavanagh, whose contract was not renewed in July but has remained a regular contributor.

“We appreciate all of Jack’s hard work and dedication during his time with Fox Chicago,” a station statement said.

* Citadel, which owns WLS Radio, is preparing to file bankruptcy. The deadline for creditors to accept the deal is apparently next Tuesday

Citadel Broadcasting Corp., the nation’s third-biggest radio company and parent of Chicago’s WLS-AM 890 and WLS-FM 94.7, is preparing to file a prearranged bankruptcy before the end of the year, according to the Wall Street Journal and later the New York Times.

Citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter, the newspapers said the proposal presented this week to creditors — and reportedly supported by many — would have lenders trade a substantial amount of the $2 billion they’re owed for 99.5 percent equity in the reorganized company, which would have about $760 million in debt. […]

Citadel loaded up on debt to fund its acquisition of Walt Disney Co.’s ABC Radio stations, but not Radio Disney or ESPN Radio, in 2006, not a particularly good time to be in radio acquisition mode, it turned out.

Apparently, the bad karma from giving Rod Blagojevich his own show was just too much for the company. [/snark]

* Roe Conn, however, is sticking around

Reports of Roe Conn’s demise — like that of another Midwestern humorist — have been greatly exaggerated. In fact, the Chicago radio veteran is close to signing a new deal to continue as afternoon personality on Citadel Broadcasting news/talk WLS-AM (890).

Barring a last-minute snafu, sources said, Conn is expected to sign a two-year renewal any day now, superseding his current contract, which expires June 1. In exchange for the additional security, he’s likely to accept a reduction in his previously reported seven-figure salary.

The only obstacle to finalizing the deal could come from Citadel Broadcasting’s top bosses, who were reported to be preoccupied Thursday preparing to file for bankruptcy by the end of the year. Such a move would allow the company to restructure its $2 billion debt.

Word of Conn’s renewal comes despite speculation that his days are numbered at WLS. After the latest Arbitron survey showed him significantly underperforming the rest of the station, the Sun-Times’ Lewis Lazare cited unnamed “observers in the local radio market” who asserted that “the high-priced WLS talent might not be able to hold on at the station much longer.” My friends at the ever-vigilant ChicagolandRadioandMedia.com went even further, declaring it “the end of the line for Roe Conn at WLS,” and identifying three potential replacements for him.

Roe is the coolest, most down-to-earth millionaire I’ve ever met. Glad he’s staying put.

* Todd Stroger blames Sam Zell for his horrifically bad poll numbers

“Why should the voters of Cook County have confidence in a poll conducted by a newspaper whose owner and chairman of the board has made sizable campaign contributions to political opponents of President Stroger? We believe this owner has been the driving force behind the Chicago Tribune’s relentless negative reporting of President Stroger and his administration,” the Stroger campaign statement read.

In the weeks preceding the 2006 Democratic primary, Zell, a real estate magnate with no interest in Tribune at the time, donated $75,000 to Cook County Board Commissioner Forrest Claypool, D-Chicago. Claypool was running against Stroger’s father, John, who was seeking a fourth term as president.

John Stroger was incapacitated by a stroke before the primary, but won, and the Cook County Democratic Party put his son, Todd Stroger, on the general election ballot in his place. Todd Stroger went on to defeat Commissioner Tony Peraica, R-Riverside, to whom Zell donated $30,000.

* One of my favorite journalists, WUIS Statehouse reporter Amanda Vinicky, just got back from Germany

WUIS/Illinois Public Radio statehouse reporter Amanda Vinicky is back in the United States after spending a week in Germany learning about media and culture.

Vinicky was one of 16 young journalists from the U.S. selected by the German-American Fulbright Commission to visit the country. Journalists from radio, television, newspapers and web outlets all took part in the trip.

“The whole thing was absolutely amazing,” said Vinicky.

Video


* Related…

* Columnist Richard Roeper named in foreclosure case

* New Outlet’s Pension Article Misses The Mark

* Nielsen folds Editor & Publisher

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*** UPDATED x1 *** O’Brien counters with own poll results

Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* MWRD President Terry O’Brien is releasing his own polling results today in an attempt to counter the Tribune’s poll showing him in last place in the Cook County Board President’s race and trailing badly.

The O’Brien poll was conducted by Cooper & Secrest November 11-17 of 605 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/-4%.

The polling memo, which can be downloaded by clicking here, claims that “Dorothy Brown is likely a temporary frontrunner” and, of course, claims that O’Brien is “positioned to emerge as the ultimate winner.”

O’Brien’s head-to-heads compared to the Trib’s.

*** UPDATE *** I don’t know how I did this, but I screwed up the poll numbers. Preckwinkle is at 16 and O’Brien is at 15. Oops. Sorry about that…

Brown 29% (80% name rec) - Trib: 29%
Preckwinkle 16% (52% name rec) - Trib: 20%
O’Brien 15% (39% name rec) - Trib: 11%
Stroger 13% (96% name rec) - Trib: 14%

More from O’Brien’s pollster…

Just 13% of all primary voters are strong Brown voters… 16% are weak

The memo also touts O’Brien’s second place finish despite being the least well known of the candidates. And it points to Preckwinkle’s four votes for pay raises.

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Voters and cable TV viewers don’t just watch CNN, Fox News and MSNBC

Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Capitol Fax Blog Advertising Department

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Judicial Candidate, John Dalton Issues Verdict on eVoter.com and Social Media Campaigns

Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Capitol Fax Blog Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

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“My campaign includes a commitment toward increasing efficiency for tax payers by using online platforms to save time and money. It simply makes sense to employ the same logic in my own campaign.

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Learn more about eVoter and View Dalton’s profile here

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*** UPDATED x2 *** Rasmussen: Giannoulias pulls ahead of Kirk

Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Hot off the presses

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Illinois voters finds Giannoulias ahead of Kirk 42% to 39%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and 15% are undecided.

In October, the two men were tied at 41% each. In mid-August, Kirk held a modest 41% to 38% lead over Giannoulias.

So, Giannoulias has managed to flip the numbers since August. The other Democrats still trail Kirk, but they’re closing the gap…

Kirk remains ahead of another Democratic hopeful, Cheryle Jackson, president of the Chicago Urban League and a former top aide to disgraced Governor Rod Blagojevich, but his lead has shrunk dramatically. Ahead of Jackson by 17 points – 47% to 30% - in October, he now leads just 42% to 39%. Four percent (4%) like another candidate, and 15% are not sure.

The Republican holds a similar 42% to 38% lead over Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, another contender for the Democratic senatorial nomination. Kirk led Hoffman 43% to 33% in October. Seventeen percent (17%) are undecided, while three percent (3%) favor another candidate.

* Meanwhile…

Fifty-one percent (51%) approve of Governor Pat Quinn’s performance. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove. But Illinois voters are nearly three times as likely to strongly disapprove rather than strongly approve of the job he’s doing.

President Obama’s Illinois approval/disapproval numbers are 58-42, and that’s way better than Rasmussen’s national number of 47-51. Running against Obama is not a great idea here.

* From the toplines

A proposal has been made to house some Guantanamo prison inmates in Illinois at the Thomson correctional facility. Do you favor or oppose housing Guantanamo prisoners at the Thomson correctional facility in Illinois?

39% Favor
51% Oppose
10% Not sure

No surprise there. The crosstabs show that Republicans oppose the plan 70-28, while a plurality of Democrats support it, 49-37.

Quinn’s job approval…

8% Strongly approve
43% Somewhat approve
25% Somewhat disapprove
22% Strongly disapprove
1% Not sure

His support remains soft, but the opposition is strengthening.

Afghanistan is becoming somewhat of an issue in the Democratic US Senate primary, with Cheryle Jackson and David Hoffman questioning the president’s new plan. But the crosstabs show large support for the president’s proposal among Democrats. 62 percent of Democrats “overall” favor the plan, 60 percent of liberals back it and 82 percent of African-Americans support it as well. Jackson is the most opposed of all the candidates, but that issue doesn’t appear to work well with African-American voters.

How it was done…

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted by Rasmussen Reports December 9, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

*** UPDATE 1 *** From a Mark Kirk press release…

Kirk Widens Lead over Giannoulias among Key Independent Voters to 34 Points in Latest Rasmussen Poll

Survey Shows Kirk and Giannoulias Remain in Statistical Dead Heat despite Democrat’s Network TV Ad Blitz

Northbrook, Ill. – A non-partisan poll released by Rasmussen Reports today shows Republican Congressman and Navy veteran Mark Kirk widening his lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias among key independent voters to 34 points despite Giannoulias’ early launch of network television ads to boost his numbers.

Responding to TV ads launched by Democrat David Hoffman, Giannoulias launched his own network television ad campaign at the beginning of the month to boost his name recognition and favorable ratings. But according to the Rasmussen survey, Kirk maintains a 50-32 favorable to unfavorable rating compared to Giannoulias’ 48-36 fav/unfav. Kirk holds a net positive strongly favorable/unfavorable rating of 13-8 while Giannoulias holds an even intensity ratio of 14-14.

The survey released today shows Kirk leading Giannoulias among key independent voters 54-20. In October, Rasmussen showed Kirk leading Giannoulias among this group 53-24. While the October poll showed both Kirk and Giannoulias at 41 with a 4.5-point margin of error, the survey released today shows Giannoulias with a slight 42-39 edge – remaining a statistical dead heat within the margin of error. A November 3rd poll by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies showed Kirk with a 44-38 advantage.

“Despite more than a week of Giannoulias network television advertising, Congressman Kirk widened his lead over Alexi Giannoulias among key independent voters to 34 points without any television advertising from his own campaign,” Kirk spokesman Eric Elk said. “In addition, the survey shows Congressman Kirk and Alexi Giannoulias remain in a statistical dead heat. With a proven record of fighting tax increases, reining in spending and spurring economic growth, Congressman Mark Kirk brings the experience, integrity and reform-minded leadership Illinois needs to create jobs, end corruption and get our state back on track.”

*** UPDATE 2 *** From Giannoulias spokesperson Kati Phillips…

“Bizarre press release aside (which shows him losing), Mark Kirk can’t hide the fact that voters tend not to like flip-floppers who put politics before principles. Whether it’s having it both ways on earmarks, women’s rights, cap n trade, or Sarah Palin’s endorsement, voters know a pander bear when they see one.”

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Question of the day

Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My Sun-Times column this week takes a look at some of the Democratic woes

It almost goes without saying that Illinois Democrats have a whole lot of problems on their hands.

They gave us Rod Blagojevich and Todd Stroger. Their state government stewardship has resulted in bone-crushing budget deficits and threats of higher taxes.

Their control of Cook County resulted in the highest sales taxes in the country for parts of Chicago. Their control of the mayor’s office resulted in a short-sighted sale of the parking meters, which then resulted in skyrocketing user costs and the emptying of a permanent trust fund for a one-year government bailout.

Blagojevich’s federal corruption trial will catapult him — and the Democratic Party — back into the headlines every day throughout next summer if all goes as planned.

Stroger will probably lose the Democratic primary come February, but he’ll still be in office all next year, no doubt generating ever more controversy and woe for his party.

The horrific state budget deficit isn’t going to get any better. The General Assembly probably won’t increase taxes soon, but an easy case can be made that they’re planning to do it right after the November election.

We just found out that some of those fancy privatized parking meters don’t work in the cold, and one can only guess what the next bungle will be on that front.

Add to all of this the utter cluelessness of the national House and Senate Democrats, who have obviously failed to understand the lesson that the 1994 Republican landslide was brought on as much by the Democrats’ failure to enact real health-care reform as anything else, and you’re looking at serious, serious trouble.

But, of course, there’s more. There’s always more. One thing that few have discussed so far is who might be on the Democratic statewide ticket next fall.

For instance, every Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor is a potential land mine.

Rep. Michael Boland (D-East Moline) awarded a legislative scholarship to the daughter of his largest campaign contributor. After the University of Illinois admissions scandal, Boland is particularly vulnerable to attack.

Sen. Rickey Hendon (D-Chicago) has been a favorite media target for years. He makes no bones at all about using his office to help his friends and supporters. While he gets points in my book for blunt honesty, the media will have a field day with the guy.

Rep. Art Turner (D-Chicago) has been a member of the House Democratic leadership forever, and part of that job is taking a huge number of “bad” votes — which will be problematic if he steps into the limelight.

Sen. Terry Link (D-Waukegan) was dragged into a petition fraud case back in 2008. Even though he was never charged and it doesn’t look like he was involved, it won’t be tough for the opposition to use that ugly episode to smear him, along with whoever is at the top of the ticket. Like Turner, Link is a longtime member of the legislative leadership, so his voting record and his fund-raising history are undoubtedly full of land mines.

Even an unknown could bring trouble. Scott Lee Cohen’s money comes from a string of pawn shops — not exactly a beloved business.

Individually, most of these issues probably aren’t enough to sink the ticket. But considering the already dangerous climate for Democrats, they could add to the overall picture of a once-proud party in meltdown.

The campaigns of Pat Quinn and Dan Hynes are so focused on winning the gubernatorial primary that they’ve barely had time to think about gaming out the scenarios when one of the “lite guv” candidates is nominated. But they are definitely nervous, and they should be.

* The Question: What state and local Democratic woes did I miss? Explain.

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Exactly what are they hiding?

Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I’m not sure why WBEZ is being blocked from accessing some juvenile prisons where the station has eye-witness reporting that shines a negative light on the facilities, but WBEZ isn’t happy about it

You may not think what goes on in Illinois’ youth prisons affects you. Think again. Thousands of teenagers from all across the state cycle in and out of Illinois’ eight juvenile prisons each year. What happens to them inside goes back with them to their communities. Taxpayers are footing the more-than-$100 million budget for these places. We want to be able to see for ourselves how they’re run and bring that information to you. But Governor Pat Quinn says no.

From the story…

Eighteen-year-old Brandon, who asked that we not use his last name, has spent nearly a third of his life in jails and prisons for kids in Illinois. He avoided solitary until this year, when he got in a fight near the end of his sentence. He says the harsh conditions made solitary confinement at the St. Charles facility west of Chicago something he’s unlikely to forget. For example, he says your food is handed to you through a small slot in the door. It’s not on one big tray, it’s on several small trays and they come through quickly. The first day he learned not to set the trays on the floor.

BRANDON: Rodents kept climbing on my food. When I set it down, they ran across the floor, ran over my food and ran around the room like six more times and I didn’t see it after that. There’s rats in there. Rats, there’s roaches all in there. On average, you’ll see like seven rats a day. Nine, 10 rats a day, yourself. Not including what everybody else din saw. […]

Brandon says there was feces smeared onto the tiles. He never took a shower during his two week stint in isolation. Brandon doesn’t have too much good to say about the education he received either. He graduated from the prison high school system but he says it was a joke.

WBEZ wanted to get into the St. Charles facility, but the governor’s office wouldn’t grant it, instead offering access to another facility…

These are certainly troubling allegations that merit further investigation to see if they’re true, or partially true, or if the kids are telling tall tales. But Governor Quinn is refusing to let WBEZ inside the Department of Juvenile Justice facilities to see how they’re run, for both the kids and the taxpayers of Illinois. After four months of meetings, emails and phone conversations, WBEZ was invited to go on a single supervised tour of the prison in Chicago, which kids say is much much better than St. Charles in the western suburbs. Quinn said no to WBEZ’s repeated requests for a reporter to spend four days during business hours sitting in classes and visiting other parts of the prison in St. Charles. That’s the same facility where a 16-year-old committed suicide in September.

You can hear the governor’s office response by going here. The answers are pretty weak, particularly considering the allegations…

[Guv’s spokesman Bob Reed]: Let me be clear. We didn’t bar them from all facilities. We offered a tour of the Chicago facility. Your editors decided that that was not the necessary access the station needed to tell its story.

[WBEZ reporter Rob Wildeboer]: Ok. So, do you think that, on a one tour of one facility, we will get a comprehensive, in-depth insight into a $100 million department that services thousands of kids every year in facilities across the state? Do you think we’ll get an in-depth understanding of that department in one tour?

REED: I don’t think you would get an in-depth understanding of that if you toured every facility you wanted, whenever you wanted, for any length of time. This is a long, long process and one of the reasons the governor’s staff wants to take a look at the system is to make sure it has an understanding of what is occurring there.

WILDEBOER: And, again, how would WBEZ doing the same thing at the same time interfere with that at all?

REED: We don’t think it’s appropriate for the press to go in, talk to juveniles who are in our charge. We’re really concerned about protecting their identities, their privacy.

WBEZ has been working on this story and attempting to negotiate with the administration for four months. It’s easy to see why the station is so upset here, particularly since Vinny Schiraldi, who runs the juvenile prison system in Washington, DC, was so open with the station and ridiculed the governor’s reasoning…

SCHIRALDI: Too many juvenile justice systems use those confidentiality rights to protect themselves as ways to protect themselves as opposed to protecting the confidentiality of the kids.

As I’ve been researching juvenile prisons over the last few months, a number of people have suggested I visit D.C., it has a good reputation for rehabilitating kids. I contacted them this week and Schiraldi called me back the same day.

WILDEBOER: I was hoping to come down and visit you guys there. Would that be possible?

SCHIRALDI: Yeah. Absolutely. Come any time you want. Yeah, I told Reggie that, just set it up for, I think next week, you wanted to set it up for? Or this week? I don’t know. Reggie’s going to deal with you on that.

Reggie is Reggie Sanders, the public information officer.

SCHIRALDI: There’s a great school at the facility. You know, you can hang around there, be where the kids are playing basketball. There’s a bunch of cool stuff you can take pictures of, but you’ll pretty much have free reign when you come.

And yet the state says “No way.” This is open government? C’mon.

  40 Comments      


Two Republicans open the door a little to tax hikes

Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* After a rough patch when he was talking about Barack Obama being a “socialist” and catering to the tea party crowd, Republican gubernatorial candidate Kirk Dillard seems to be softening his hard-line stances of late and returning to his more moderate roots.

Yesterday, Dillard said at a press conference that he won’t totally rule out a tax hike

“I have no designs to raise any taxes,” [Dillard] said.

But Dillard, unlike his fellow Republican candidates for governor, maintained that all options should be considered, including tax increases.

He said it doesn’t make sense to eliminate an option, like his opponents mostly have.

“I’m saying that some of them are pandering,” said Dillard.

Rival Republican state Sen. Bill Brady shot back…

“I believe any politician that opens the door for a tax increase puts in jeopardy Illinois jobs,” said Brady.

Illinois Review claimed this week that Dillard had sought the endorsement of the Illinois Education Association. If he did, yesterday’s comments make even more sense.

* Jim Ryan is also opening the door a tiny crack

If former Illinois Attorney General Jim Ryan wins his bid for governor, the Elmhurst Republican says he will focus on cutting spending, but be open minded to tax hikes once the recession clears.

“If we do everything humanly possible,” Ryan said of the spending cuts and landmark reforms he is proposing, “then I would look at revenue enhancements.”

“But not before the recession is over,” Ryan quickly added during a tapping of WBBM 780AM’s At Issue program on Thursday.

During the program, Ryan didn’t identify a single state program that should be cut. He also backed away from his previous support of SB750, the tax swap plan…

Ryan had previously endorsed a plan to reduce property taxes in exchange for an increase in the income tax, but he says now that is a bad idea given the economy. He also says he has looked at other states that have a similar tax structure and seen the switch, intended to better fund education, doesn’t work as well as promised.

  38 Comments      


Hynes: “If that’s stability, I’d hate to see chaos”

Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Tribune has finally uploaded the video from its editorial board “debate” between Gov. Pat Quinn and Comptroller Dan Hynes. You can watch the two-part video by going to the main editorial page and looking at the lower right side.

I excerpted one pretty testy back and forth between Hynes and Quinn. Hynes is usually a pretty placid guy, but he went off several times during this exchange and really showed some passion. The excerpt is definitely worth a look and it gets more interesting as the video goes on, so stay with it


* Some of that back and forth had to do with Hynes’ refusal to approve Quinn’s $500 million short-term borrowing plan. ABC7 ran a story yesterday about an AARP press conference that you should definitely watch. For some reason, I can no longer get the station’s embed script to work, so it’s just words on this end again today…

The state of Illinois, with an estimated $11 billion to $13 billion deficit, owes an estimated $4.5 billion to its vendors. AARP says the creditors include 200 agencies around the state that serve the elderly that could be forced out of business within weeks.

“I have no funds to make payroll next week for my staff,” said Champaign Senior Care Provider Carol Acord.

“For our last payroll, our family had to deplete all of our savings,” said Norman James of Family Home Services, Inc. “So that we can keep our employees out there working and providing the service that the seniors need.” […]

But the worst-off providers want the state to use whatever means to pay what it owes now and save the politics for later.

“Put aside our partisan differences, our political aspirations, and take emergency action now,” said Democratic Rep. Greg Harris who represents Chicago.

* Comptroller Hynes claimed in the above Tribune debate video that fully a third of state revenues will have to used to pay off existing short-term loans come March and April. And as I told you yesterday, S&P downgraded Illinois’ general obligation debt and retained its negative outlook on the state’s credit. More on that from Reuters

S&P said the negative outlook was retained because of the state’s “questionable” willingness to implement difficult and politically unpopular measures to restore a budget balance.

“There’s been very limited action on addressing the shortfall,” said Robin Prunty, an S&P analyst.

In its downgrade affecting $19 billion of outstanding Illinois GO debt, S&P said Illinois rolled its fiscal 2009 budget deficit into fiscal 2010, which in turn was balanced “with various spending reductions and a plan for debt restructuring to provide budget savings; the savings from both are uncertain at this time.”

The state also turned to one-time measures, such as a plan to issue $3.5 billion of pension notes to raise money for its fiscal 2010 payment to pension funds. That “might create out-year budget pressure,” S&P said.

The governor says in the excerpted Tribune video that the financial situation here is “stable.” Hynes responded: “If that’s stability, I’d hate to see chaos.” How right he is.

  16 Comments      


Dorothy Brown leads in Trib poll

Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Bumped up from last night for visibility.]

* A new Tribune poll is not hugely surprising

Faced with widespread voter dissatisfaction, embattled Cook County Board President Todd Stroger trails Circuit Clerk Dorothy Brown and Chicago Ald. Toni Preckwinkle in the race for the Democratic primary nomination, a Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.

Brown had the support of 29 percent of likely Feb. 2 primary voters, ahead of Preckwinkle’s 20 percent, in the poll of 502 likely voters. Stroger received 14 percent and Terrence O’Brien, president of the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District, had 11 percent.

But the survey found that 26 percent of primary voters are undecided in the race or for someone else — meaning plenty of room exists for the contest to become even more fluid in the post-holiday sprint to the ballot box. […]

O’Brien is the lone white candidate in the race, but the prospect of three African-American candidates splintering the black vote to enable him to win isn’t borne out in the survey.

What is surprising is that for the first time that I can recall, the Tribune has released its questions, toplines and some crosstabs. Click here to download.

Toni Preckwinkle already has a press release out…

We are exactly where we expected to be at this point in our campaign. We entered this race 11 months ago and have been building positive momentum since. We are confident that, as voters continue to hear Toni Preckwinkle’s message - her commitment to repeal the Stroger sales tax increase and bring real reform to County government, that we will win the only poll that matters - on election day.

Our own recent polling shows that Dorothy Brown had a 2:1 name recognition advantage. Yet polling shows even though voters know her, they are unconvinced she deserves a promotion.

The Trib poll’s name recognition advantage for Brown over Preckwinkle - 91 vs. 62- isn’t nearly as high as Preckwinkle claims in her own polling. However, those with either a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the two is about two-to-one for Brown - 56-30. O’Brien comes in last in the Trib poll at 51 percent name rec, while just 14 percent know enough about him to rate him…

And here are the Trib’s crosstabs on the head-to-heads…

Preckwinkle absolutely needs to raise some money to get her message out. Her campaign has done a good job of leaking negative research on Brown and O’Brien to the media, but she obviously needs to reinforce that with advertising.

O’Brien needs to up his name ID, and only lots of cash will do that.

This is one reason why the reformers’ hatred of campaign cash is so misguided. Incumbents are already well-known. Challengers have to establish themselves with voters, but nobody in the reform movement is talking about making TV and radio ads lots cheaper.

Data…

This Chicago Tribune Poll is based on interviews of confirmed registered voters likely to vote in the February 2nd Cook County Democratic primary. Interviewing was conducted December 2nd to the 8th. The sample involved 502 Cook County Democratic primary voters, for a potential margin of error of 4.4% at the 95% level of confidence.

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Friday, Dec 11, 2009 - Posted by Rich Miller

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