* Google News shows 29,061 mentions of the phrase “Main Street” in connection with the phrase “Wall Street” within news articles during the past two weeks.
How downright homespun of them.
Anyway, onto the roundup…
* The Daily Herald has yet another article about how Jim Oberweis has gone from riding in a black helicopter over Soldier Field to being Mr. Nice Guy…
[Oberweis campaign manager David From] recognizes Oberweis hasn’t been the most popular guy in the Illinois Republican Party. Attack-filled primary campaigns have been the norm in just about all the contests Oberweis has competed. That’s where timing comes in again, From believes. With no primary in this November contest, From said he believes Republicans in the district will have had sufficient time to get over any grudges lingering about their favored candidates not making the cut.
From said that at the start of the campaign, Republicans in the district gathered with Oberweis for a gripe session where not everything said was easy for Oberweis to hear. But it provided the tools for a makeover. Indeed, perhaps Dennis Hastert summed it up best when he openly told Oberweis in the news media that he needed to revamp his image.
That started with redirecting public attention on the issues. Immigration is still a hot-button issue for Oberweis, but it hasn’t played as prominent a role in the campaign as in other races, largely because of the economy taking center stage. While that’s bad for most Republicans this year, Oberweis has used it to position himself as the guy with the business and investment acumen to do the right thing at the right time.
In fact, the Oberweis campaign has tried to make the economy the one and only issue in the race. Recently, Oberweis told voters at a forum to vote for Foster if they think he and Congress got the $700 billion bailout package right. If not, they should vote for Oberweis. […]
In other words, there will be no helicopters or chicken feathers in this race. Indeed, the campaign doesn’t expect much help from the Republican Party nationally or locally to fund much advertisement at all. Instead, the approach to winning will be a hard line on the economy and a soft serve on the attacks that’s gotten Oberweis in trouble in the past.
“I haven’t changed,” Oberweis said. “I hope the perception of me has changed.”
As I told you yesterday, Charlie Cook has moved this race from from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic.
Ozinga has campaigned on a platform proclaiming “I am not a politician,” while the Democrats have tried to link his policies to those of President George Bush.
Doesn’t the Cheney connection only add fuel to that fire and stymie the “I am not a politician” mantra? Sere doesn’t think so.
“In response to Debbie Halvorson’s attacks, I would say, I think voters are smart enough to see the real issue in the campaign is not what the vice president is doing for Marty’s campaign but what Debbie Halvorson has done for Rod Blagojevich at the expense of working families in the 11th District for a number of years,” Sere said.
In response, Halvorson’s campaign noted it was Ozinga who has given $23,000 to Blagojevich’s campaign throughout the years, including a $10,000 donation for a meeting with the governor to discuss concerns over statewide construction projects.
It’s so nice seeing both sides sticking to the issues in that campaign. lol
Republican Rep. Judy Biggert’s opponent criticizes her for first opposing the $700 billion bailout package but later supporting a revised version.
Democratic Rep. Bill Foster, who was sent to Congress in March through a special election, backed both versions of the bailout and faces an opponent - Jim Oberweis, a Sugar Grove businessman who made a fortune as an investment manager - with the money for a last-minute advertising blitz to make an issue of the votes. Oberweis said he would have voted against either incarnation.
And Rep. Peter Roskam, a freshman Republican, opposed the measure from beginning to end. His challenger, Jill Morgenthaler (D-Des Plaines), says she would have backed the bailout, reluctantly, because something had to be done to prevent an economic catastrophe.
Biggert’s challenger, former Chicago businessman Scott Harper (D-Lockport), sees the Hinsdale incumbent’s vote to be an asset to his own campaign. Harper, given little chance of winning on traditionally GOP turf in Chicago’s suburbs, said the five-term congresswoman has struck out in dealing with the nation’s worsening economic crisis.
The candidate with the most opportunity to make something of this bailout vote appears to be Oberweis, mainly because he’ll have the dough to finance the TV ads.
* Something to keep in mind when you hear all this talk about “swing” or “undecided” voters…
(M)any of those who claim to be undecided are not. Some don’t want to admit their preference. In their paper, “Swing Voters? Hah!” political scientists Adam Clymer and Ken Winneg amassed substantial data suggesting that very few undecided voters are truly indecisive. Examining the 2004 election, Clymer and Winneg found that even the most hard-core of undecided voters were fairly predictable.
They asked the 4% of their sample that claimed to be undecided to rate the two candidates in early October. When they went back to the same people after the election, more than 80% had in fact voted for whichever candidate they’d rated most highly a month earlier.
What this could mean is that pollsters who push their respondents the hardest to make a choice (which is generally the automated polls like the highly successful SurveyUSA) may be the most accurate at predicting the eventual results because the vast majority of undecideds really aren’t undecided.
* Another point from the same piece…
Examining nine presidential elections, [James Campbell, a political scientist at the State University of New York at Buffalo] compared the size of the swing vote (defined here as voters with weak leanings before the heat of the campaign) with the size of the non-swing vote. Swing voters are known to be a minority of the population, but it turns out that they’re not a particularly decisive minority. “In only one of the nine elections, the 1976 race between Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter,” writes Campbell, “did the swing vote majority override an opposite majority among non-swing voters.”
In other words, in eight of the last nine elections, the winner could have lost swing voters but won the race. In a second test, which examined voters who were undecided at a later point in the race, Campbell found that the last campaign in which they were decisive was 1960.
McCain advisers say they’re saving their best material for the last ten days of the race, when, the campaign hopes, three quarters of the remaining undecided voters will make up their minds, and their minds will be concentrating on Barack Obama. When the urgency of the presidential election impresses itself, the hope is that these voters will swing back to the familiar, rather than the unknown.
They’d better have enough cash and message discipline to burn that in. So far, it doesn’t look like they have either. But, whatever floats your boat, man.
The hype surrounding the Bradley Effect has evolved to where some political pundits believe in 2008 that Obama must win in the national pre-election polls by 6-9 points before he can be assured a victory.
That’s absurd. There won’t be a 6-9 point Bradley Effect — there can’t be, since few national polls show a large enough amount of undecided voters and it’s in the undecided column where racism supposedly hides.
Bottom line: Since all undecideds are not racists, any “Bradley Effect” will not impact the outcome, as current polls stand.
Even though Tom Bradley had been slightly ahead in the polls in 1982, due to sampling error, it was statistically too close to call. For example, the daily Tarrance and Associates tracking polls for the Deukmejian campaign showed the following weekly summations (N=1000 each) during the month of October:
But what about exit polls from that election day which showed Bradley far ahead?
Bradley actually won on election day turnout, but lost the absentee vote so badly that Deukmejian pulled ahead to win.
…ADDING MORE… What about Ronald Reagan’s big 1980 comeback? Not so much…
A post-election summary of polls by then-CBS News pollster Warren Mitofsky shows that at no point over the final two weeks did Carter have a lead bigger than three percentage points. There is a published Gallup poll not included in that report showing Carter up six among likely voters in a poll conducted Oct. 24 to 27. Whether six or the eight points cited today, Carter’s advantage in Gallup polling was offset by similarly large Reagan leads in NBC-Associated Press or DMI (Reagan’s pollsters) polls.
The bottom line is that there was no evident momentum for either candidate as the 1980 presidential election neared its completion. That is until Reagan’s breakthrough debate performance.
* Illinois political history shows no signs of any Bradley Effect in any major political contests dating back to Harold Washington’s 1983 mayoral victory. This year, though, it’s the Rod & Todd Effect which most troubles Democrats…
Rep. Tom Cross said Illinois Republicans think they can clip the coattails of Barack Obama here in his own home state. They are reminding voters that should Obama move to the White House, several other local Democrats will stay behind to run things in Springfield and Chicago.
“Not only Governor Blagojevich, Speaker Madigan and Emil Jones have done things, Todd Stroger has done an awful job at Cook County government,” Cross said. “But as you move down that ballot, you say to yourself, ‘What? Why another Democrat in the Illinois General Assembly? It makes no sense.’”
Republican polling shows Obama running strongly in suburbs around Chicago. It also shows Gov. Blagojevich and Cook County Board President Todd Stroger are extraordinarily unpopular.
But Cross appeared to admit to CBS 2 that McCain’s negative campaign against Obama wasn’t helping his efforts to hold onto GOP seats here, and advised a retooling.
* The Obama Effect is what’s keeping Illinois Republicans awake at night…
Suburban folks flooded polling places in Democratic strongholds including Orland Park, South Holland and Evanston. By 5 p.m., 7,616 suburban residents had cast ballots, county election officials said. That’s nearly five times the record turnout on the first day of early voting — 1,591 early votes cast on Jan. 14 before the February primary.
In Chicago, voters cast nearly 11,735 ballots — nearly three times the record for first-day early voting. Monday’s turnout was just short of the single-day early voting record of 11,971, which came on the last day of early voting before the February primary.
“Normally, we don’t see a number like this until the last four days of early voting,” Chicago elections board spokesman James Allen said.
* Obama is running TV and radio ads on Chicago network channels to boost his Indiana effort. That will undoubtedly run up his suburban vote. Whether the down-ballot candidates can attach themselves to his coattails is the big question, however…
“I don’t think it’s going to be quite the wipeout that maybe we feared a few months ago,” said former Gov. Jim Edgar, a Republican.
Here’s a bit of free public relations advice to Gov. Blagojevich, boiled down to three words.
Release the checks.
We’re talking about the recent furor that erupted over a Chicago Sun-Times report that federal agents are investigating whether the governor’s former key fund-raiser, Tony Rezko, paid for all or part of a $90,000 rehab on the governor’s Northwest Side home.
Rezko is now a felon after being convicted of political corruption. The work on the governor’s home happened in 2003, right after Rezko successfully placed his cronies on state boards that control big-money deals.
You can see why this might raise questions.
Blagojevich insists he paid for all the work done on the house, but he won’t release copies of the checks proving it. Nor has he has been clear why he won’t.
Maybe he feels it’s an invasion of privacy. Or that it’s nobody’s business. Or, in the worst case scenario, he can’t produce the checks because Rezko, in fact, did pay for some or all of the work.
We don’t know the answer to that question, but one thing is clear: This issue isn’t going away.
Seriously, it shouldn’t be that big of a deal. Just release the checks. What harm could it possibly do?
* Tomorrow at 4:30 pm I will be hosting a debate on the merits of a Constitutional Convention for my master’s program in conjunction with the Institute of Government and Public Affairs.
The debate will feature two experts on state politics and governance, Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn and Kevin Semlow, director of state legislation for the Illinois Farm Bureau. It will be held in Room 100 of Gregory Hall, 810 S. Wright St., on the Urbana-Champaign campus. Admission is free and the event is open to the public.
* If you’re in the area come on by. To view the press release click here.
The latest chapter in Illinois’ long-running saga to open a casino in the Chicago suburbs will begin to unfold this week as regulators move forward with plans to reissue the state’s only dormant gambling license by year’s end.
The decade of delay, however, could cost the state millions as companies weigh the value of a gambling license amid a faltering economy in a state with a new indoor smoking ban and high casino taxes. […]
Waukegan, Des Plaines, Country Club Hills and Calumet City all have business partners submitting bids for the license by Tuesday’s deadline, and the Illinois Gaming Board plans to announce the full list of those vying for a casino on Wednesday.
Former Illinois inmates exonerated of wrongdoing now have another recourse after enduring long delays for clemency decisions by the governor.
Lawyers at Northwestern University’s Center on Wrongful Convictions plan to take advantage Wednesday of a new law that allows the exonerated to circumvent the governor and file for certificates of innocence directly from circuit courts.
Previously, those who were wrongfully convicted needed the governor’s pardon to obtain compensation for their time in prison, even if their convictions had been thrown out. As a result, many waited years for Gov. Rod Blagojevich—who had amassed a sizable backlog of petitions—to make a clemency decision.
Amtrak ridership topped 1 million passengers in the past year for the first time in at least three decades on routes between Chicago and Downstate cities, the railroad reported today.
In addition, Amtrak trains between Chicago and Milwaukee carried about 750,000 riders, a 25 percent increase from a year earlier
City Hall has canceled supply contracts worth tens of millions of dollars with a Chicago company after an investigation concluded the firm failed to hire minority and women-owned businesses listed as subcontractors
The fall season is here and the Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) and the Illinois Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) want to remind motorists that deer are more active during the fall, which increases the likelihood of vehicle crashes involving deer.
With a Wednesday, October 15 deadline looming, AARP is working hard with the IRS to get the message out and help people get their money before it’s too late. Nearly 70% of those who haven’t filed in Illinois are over the age of 65. Since the summer, AARP has undertaken an aggressive effort to ensure people have the facts they need to claim the stimulus rebate money. On October 7, nearly 10,000 individuals connected online with U.S. Senator Dick Durbin, AARP State Director Bob Gallo and IRS leaders, in a Tele Town Hall to get critical information on how to claim their $300-$600 federal rebate checks.
Twelve hundred workers at the GM plant in Janesville, Wisconsin, learned Monday that the factory will close in December. The plant is one of GM’s oldest, it makes full size SUVs, like the GMC Yukon and the Chevy Tahoe.
Chris Lee is a spokesman for the automaker.
I’m a member of a union. My father was a proud union member. His father was a union member and, for a time, a union organizer. I own a business. My maternal grandparents, whom I cherished more than anyone else when I was a kid, were farmers. My mother was a public school teacher for several years. Both of my parents are now retired and rely heavily on their government pensions.
What the heck does any of that have to do with anything?
Well, unions, business groups, the Illinois Farm Bureau and, most of all, groups representing retired public employees and retirees are all up in arms about the upcoming state constitutional convention referendum.
Every 20 years, Illinois voters are given the right to call for a constitutional convention. And all those aforementioned groups want you to vote “no” next month for various reasons.
I’m on the other side. I want you to vote “yes,” but because of my personal history, I’m often a bit puzzled to find myself on the other side of this issue.
The union people are worried about the introduction of a right-to-work provision, or other erosions of their hard-fought gains in this state.
Business groups fret that a constitutional convention could come up with crazy liberal ideas, or mess with the way income taxes can be levied on businesses.
The farm bureau sees reason for concern in the very nature of Illinois politics. The convention, they warn, would be “stacked in favor of urban areas.” Farmers’ property taxes are lower than residential rates, for instance, and that might go out the window.
Public employee and teachers unions and associated retiree groups are probably the most intense in their opposition, however. That’s probably because their members may have the most to lose.
Two years ago, Gov. Rod Blagojevich attempted to reduce pension benefits for future state and local public employees and teachers. Senate President Emil Jones, his only real ally, backed him up. House Speaker Michael Madigan, who doesn’t get along with Blagojevich, announced his keen interest in the governor’s plan. The unions freaked, and it took a huge effort to defeat the proposal.
The unions and retirees figured that if “friendly” politicians who had accepted millions of dollars in campaign contributions from them had turned against their interests so quickly, then a constitutional convention, which can’t possibly be controlled as easily as the General Assembly, would be an absolute nightmare.
They’re right. The state’s underfunded pension systems are draining the state budget at an alarming rate, causing outcries of reform from numerous corners. And then there are those who regularly whip up public resentment by pointing to the average Joe taxpayer, who has no guaranteed pension benefits for life. A constitutional convention may very well address this issue.
However, some of the retirees have unfortunately resorted to distortions, brazen fear tactics and outright lies to frighten pensioners into voting “no.”
Let me clear up a few things.
No matter what happens at the constitutional convention, state and local governments cannot legally reduce pension payments to current retirees. A convention cannot legally take away pension payment benefits already earned by current employees. The chances are nil that the delegates would do anything weird such as force the combination of the Chicago teachers pension fund and the downstate teachers pension fund.
And, of course, everything decided at the constitutional convention would have to then be approved by the voters in a statewide referendum.
A convention could, however, change a few words in the current constitution that would allow the General Assembly to eventually make changes, such as reduce future pension benefits, including health care benefits, for current workers or workers yet to be hired. But it’s highly improbable that the convention delegates themselves would micromanage pension funding proposals.
Personally, I wouldn’t blame public employees and teachers for voting “no” on the constitutional convention question. On the other hand, I think most, maybe not all, of those other groups mentioned above are probably overstating their case.
But, for me, there are just too many other issues - like the power hoarded by the very few at the expense of the many - which so desperately need addressing in this state to pass on this once in a generation opportunity. The people need to take back their constitution for themselves. So, please, vote “yes” on the constitutional convention. Thanks.
Public-sector retirement benefits are not as rosy as one might think. After all, many public employees, such as teachers, are not eligible for Social Security and government employees oftentimes have paid in more toward their retirements than others.
But in a world of sound bite political campaigns, expect those facts to get lost in the mix.
The perceived retirement disparities between government workers and everyone else are ripe for political exploitation. (The only other option would be for politicians to own up to their own irresponsibility — which will happen when pigs fly.)
Illinois taxpayers owe almost $10,000 per household in teacher and state employees’ pension payments. That shortfall will have to be made up somehow.
It’s a sad situation, but one ripe for political exploitation.
* The proponents of the convention referendum are trying to leapfrog the appellate court and go right to the Illinois Supremes…
Undeterred by a Cook County judge’s ruling that the constitutional convention question will appear on the Illinois ballot as drafted — mistakes and all — Con-Con proponents have appealed to the state’s highest court to intervene on behalf of voters.
With only three weeks until Election Day, Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn and the Chicago Bar Association (CBA) are petitioning both the Illinois Supreme Court and Appellate Court to reverse Cook County Judge Nathaniel Howse Jr.’s recent decision on the matter. Howse found the Con-Con ballot language to be both “misleading and false,” but decided it was too late to do anything but distribute flyers at the polling places with better wording, as well as a warning to disregard the language on the ballot.
The plaintiffs would rather see a separate paper ballot issued for the Con-Con question. This idea, however, has drawn opposition from state election authorities who say that dealing with a hand-count of upwards of 8 million ballots would be a nightmare.
Contrary to articles written by Shaw Newspapers in recent weeks, the question as to whether voters want a constitutional convention will not be on a separate ballot, but on the same ballot as everything else.
Where did the newspaper get the incorrect information on the procedure for amending the 1970 Illinois Constitution? The 1970 Illinois Constitution, Article 14, Section 1(c): “The vote on whether to call a Convention shall be on a separate ballot.”
The straightforward statement in the document where the buck stops for Illinois law and government begs an important question — could the losing side challenge the constitutionality of the vote? […]
Everyone interviewed for this story — all of whom have law degrees — agreed that the language of Article 14 opens up the possibility of a legal challenge. But they said they hoped no one would do that.
“Any citizen can challenge anything they want on a convention or an election,” said Nancy Kaszak, spokeswoman for the anti-convention Alliance to Protect the Illinois Constitution. “But the question is, would they get past the motion to dismiss?”
