* As I told you earlier today, Gov. Pat Quinn is running a new TV ad during news coverage of election results. The ad uses video footage of Bruce Rauner talking about lowering the minimum wage and about being “adamantly, adamantly” against raising it. The ad ends with the silent tagline “Who is the Real Bruce Rauner?”
* Rate it…
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A brief moment of Oscar-related Zen
Tuesday, Mar 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* It’s been a very rough day, partly because Oscar the Puppy is with his mommy while I work. She took him for a haircut…
* Oscar will be spending the evening away from home because of the election. I miss him terribly, but he can occasionally be a distraction…
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IFT wins major UNO contract
Tuesday, Mar 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Interesting stuff from Greg Hinz…
On a day when strong charter-school advocate Bruce Rauner is expected to win the GOP nomination for governor, the movement suffered what many would consider an off-setting defeat to its biggest foe: organized labor.
In an ironic touch to this Election Day, the Illinois Federation of Teachers announced that staffers at the United Neighborhood Organization charter network, the biggest in the city, have overwhelmingly ratified their first, union-negotiated contract.
The vote, described by the federation as “nearly unanimous,” will cover more than 500 teachers and staff at 16 UNO schools and comes about a year after 90 percent of those employees voted to affiliate.
Twenty-nine charter schools, nearly a quarter of the city’s total, now have voted to unionize with the federation, and organizing efforts are underway at some others, according to the union.
* From Catalyst Chicago…
Union organizers say the contract, approved in a 445-to-16 vote, sets a “gold standard” for future charter school labor agreements across the country. It includes:
* A salary schedule based on years of experience and educational attainment that will raise some employees’ salaries by as much as $10,000. Pay increases will be retroactive to the beginning of this school year.
* Elimination of year-end bonuses based on evaluations that employees say used inconsistent metrics and fueled resentment among colleagues.
* A “just cause” provision for terminations and a grievance procedure.
* Paid and unpaid release time for bargaining unit members to do union-related work.
* A longer summer break for teachers. Previously, teachers and staff had four weeks of summer vacation; now they will have five weeks under the new contract. However, the total number of instructional days remain unchanged.
“This contract will give a lot of people hope that [the charter network] is a place they can stay at for more than a year or two and grow as teachers and professionals without thinking their jobs are going to be on the line at the end of the year,” said Mallory Bruno, a special education teacher at UNO’s Octavio Paz Elementary School. “The salary schedule is so appealing now, I look forward to staying here for years to come.”
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* From a press release…
The Dillard-Tracy campaign is calling on Republican candidate Bruce Rauner to stop his paid “volunteers” from soliciting voters at polling places for a term-limits constitutional amendment, an issue Rauner has promoted during his campaign.
“This is unconscionable,” Dillard-Tracy Campaign Manager Glenn Hodas said. “Rauner’s bending the rules, yet again, by stationing paid workers at the doorways of polling places, supposedly to collect signatures for his term limits referendum, but in reality promoting his candidacy.”
Technically, Rauner’s workers aren’t considered to be “electioneering” because they are supposed to be collecting signatures for a referendum. “But this is a political committee Bruce is the Chairman of, and has contributed $250,000 to,” Hodas said. “These are not disinterested workers at the polls.”
Election law prevents campaigns from having staff or volunteers stand within 100 feet of the entrance of a polling place on the day of an election. Hodas said Rauner is skirting the legal prohibition.
“This looks like another slick move by Rauner to bend the rules to get what he wants, at the expense of the integrity of the process,” Hodas said.
They’re right that technically this is not against the law. As long as those petition passers aren’t pushing Rauner’s name at all, it’s legal.
And, in reality, perhaps the best way to get valid petition signatures from registered voters is to go to polling places on election day. So, while it’s distasteful to Dillard’s campaign, this is a smart move on Rauner’s part.
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* Will Caskey, a regular commenter here, has an excellent op-ed over at the Illinois Observer about Rep. Toni Berrios’ Chicago primary battle against Will Guzzardi and broader lessons that should be learned. Go read the whole thing…
Negative ads, mail work. Say it in the mirror until you believe it: negative attacks work. Whether that is good or bad doesn’t matter. It works. It’s what the people want.
If you examine all the mail sent in this race (you’re welcome, by the way), you’ll see that both candidates smacked the crap out of each other. About half of the pieces from both sides was negative.
Witness: Berrios sent out 40 total mail pieces, of which 17 (42 percent) were negative, 8 were positive, 4 were GOTV, 6 were positives sent by interest groups and 5 were “dear neighbor” letters. If you count just the actual direct mail sent by Berrios and House Democrats, then 68 percent were negative.
Guzzardi sent out 9 total pieces, of which 4 (44 percent) were negative.
Bear in mind that these are only counts for mail sent to the general voting universe. It’s probable both sides sent mail to more specific audiences
The only surprise is that the negative percentages were that low. As the incumbent, Berrios has an interest in disqualifying Guzzardi. There’s also the added benefit that overwhelming negatives can depress turnout, which usually benefits incumbents. Guzzardi has an interest in informing people why they should care about their state rep, which usually means because their state rep screwed up.
Ah, but this isn’t just any negative mail.
It’s screaming, nasty, ugly, unsettling negative mail. Mail with sex offenders gripping young girls and neighborhood watch-style flyers yelling about rapists in the immediate vicinity. These attacks aren’t over the top, they’re flying at 30,000 feet. Are these attacks fair? Say it with me: It doesn’t matter. Every attack is fair, and unfair. It depends on how much you like the person being attacked. Fairness is a matter of opinion; proper attacks are a matter of fact.
But are they effective?
As I learned the hard way, presentation matters. An attack can be accurate, and poll well, but it can still be worthless with improper presentation. People expect to see a certain range of information about politicians. When we are presented with unexpected information our most frequent reaction is simply to deny it.
And that’s the risk in this approach. It’s not that there will be a backlash. The only “backlash” coming from the district is from people who were already going to vote for Guzzardi. (By complete coincidence, Guzzardi claims he’s hearing about a great big backlash!) The danger in bad presentation is that the attacks simply won’t work. You have a very limited window of persuasion in a campaign, and all opportunity costs are serious failures.
That last point is why the Democrats’ over-the-top attacks on Guzzardi may not have worked. And if they didn’t work, Guzzardi probably wins tonight.
Again, go read the whole thing.
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Mailer urges Dems to vote for Sandack
Tuesday, Mar 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* A political committee that doesn’t seem to be registered yet with the state has sent a mailer to Democrats urging them to vote in the Republican primary for Rep. Ron Sandack…
As noted above, Illinois Common Sense PAC is not registered with the board of elections.
Sandack’s opponent Keith Matune is supported by Dan Proft.
* Meanwhile, here’s one of several pieces criticizing Rep. Jeanne Ives…
Rep. Ives’ Republican opponent is backed by organized labor, particularly the teachers.
* And speaking of Ives, House GOP Leader Jim Durkin has been making the round of campaign offices today and stopped by to see Ives…
Caption?
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Quinn to go on the air tonight with TV ad buy
Tuesday, Mar 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Gov. Pat Quinn will begin running ads in some broadcast TV markets tonight during the stations’ election results coverage. This is what I’ve been able to discern so far. Chicago and Champaign at least…
Pat Quinn Chicago WLS 18-Mar 19-Mar $13,500
Pat Quinn Chicago WBBM 18-Mar 19-Mar $4,625
Pat Quinn Chicago WFLD 18-Mar 19-Mar $6,000
Pat Quinn Chicago WMAQ 18-Mar 19-Mar $6,400
Pat Quinn Chicago CLTV 18-Mar 19-Mar $955
Pat Quinn Chicago WGN 18-Mar 19-Mar $7,900
Pat Quinn Champaign WICS 18-Mar 19-Mar $2,700
Pat Quinn Champaign WRSP 18-Mar 19-Mar $500
Pat Quinn Champaign WCIA 18-Mar 19-Mar $1,645
Pat Quinn Champaign WAND 18-Mar 19-Mar $1,180
Chicago: $39,380 (75-100 GRPs)
Champaign: $6,025 (100 GRPs)
I don’t have the ad yet, but I’ll try to find it.
I’m also hearing about some significant upcoming broadcast and cable buys by Quinn.
* Meanwhile, here’s a press release from the Democratic Governors Association…
“Pat Quinn is a Street Fighter”
On “The Daily Rundown with Chuck Todd” this morning, Chicago Sun-Times columnist Carol Marin said that Illinois Governor Pat Quinn is a “street fighter,” who Republicans underestimate at their own peril. She went on to say “he is as much an outsider” as Billionaire Bruce Rauner. The truth is that Rauner is just a typical, uber-rich, right-wing politician who wants to slash the minimum wage, gut education and public safety, and cut taxes for the wealthiest at the expense of the middle class.
Watch the video here: http://youtu.be/P4ialwIc3Xk
TRANSCRIPT
MARIN: It’s easy to underestimate Pat Quinn.
TODD: A lot of Democrats have done that for years.
MARIN: A lot of them have, and to their peril. I mean, he is as much an outsider as Bruce Rauner, the Republican, is casting himself as. Pat Quinn is a street fighter. He may operatee out of a pocket protector than out of a massive computer bank but he is going to give this race a real fight, whoever is the nominee on the Republican side.
* The video…
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Davis, Harold in the home stretch
Tuesday, Mar 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From an AP story about Congressman Rodney Davis’ GOP primary race against Erika Harold…
Early on, the race between Davis and Harold was expected to be tight. Brian Gaines, a political science professor at the University of Illinois’ Institute of Government and Public Affairs, said the Urbana lawyer, 34, is the kind of candidate many Republican loyalists would like to see on a ballot to broaden the party’s reach.
“She’s got a lot of qualities that make her in a sense a godsend for the Republican Party,” Gaines said.
But Harold has said that party insiders appear to favor Davis, a former staffer for U.S. Rep. John Shimkus, and failed to give her equal access to GOP campaign resources. She also has lagged in fundraising: Through the end of December, Davis had raised $1.45 million to Harold’s $215,000, according to the Federal Election Commission.
Gaines said her campaign has appeared disorganized — focusing on complaints about her treatment by party officials rather than effectively countering with grass-roots organizing.
Who said this race would be tight? Anyone not allied with Harold?
And, by the way, Professor Gaines makes an excellent point. As the old saying goes, “Don’t mourn, organize.”
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* AP…
An Illinois Senate panel has approved Gov. Pat Quinn’s choice to oversee the state Department of Corrections despite objections from Republicans.
Monday’s 7-2 vote on Corrections Director S.A. “Tony” Godinez (goh-DEEN’-ez) came during a hearing in Chicago. […]
The Senate Executive Appointments Committee meeting was held a day before Tuesday’s election.
State Sen. Tim Bivins from Dixon is the panel’s ranking Republican. He says Monday’s vote creates an unusual appearance.
* More…
Godinez also defended the agency against the perception that the facilities are overcrowded. Currently, there are nearly 50,000 inmates in a system built to house about 32,000 prisoners.
Godinez said there are enough beds for inmates, if you count putting bunks in gymnasiums, but the high numbers of inmates mean prisoners don’t receive the kinds of educational and vocational classes they should be receiving.
“We’re overcrowded because we don’t have enough programs for everybody,” Godinez said.
He won praise from Democrats for implementing an early prisoner release program that has resulted in just 3.9 percent of those inmates returning to prison.
“We’re jumping on these guys if they aren’t adhering to the basic parole rules,” Godinez said. “Our efforts so far have been miraculous.”
Discuss.
*** UPDATE *** From the Department of Corrections…
During yesterday’s confirmation hearing, Illinois Department of Corrections (IDOC) Director Salvador “Tony” Godinez never said there are enough beds for inmates—if you count putting bunks in gymnasiums. That would be wildly inaccurate since only 24 of 48,400 inmates in our system are housed in one former gym space. 24.
IDOC no longer needs gyms for housing,and last summer we eliminated gym use; these 24 inmates stayed while permanent conversation was planned. In fact, the Director actually said this insignificant number of 24 will be out of gyms in two weeks.
Further, we do not have nearly 50,000 inmates in this system. It is currently 48,400. That’s closer to 48K than 50K. The difference is almost what would be in one prison.
Finally, this important fact. Director Godinez never said it is “98% true” that he spends more time visiting with inmates than staff. Mr. Godinez three times described how he had made an average of more than 50 visits to Illinois prisons each year during his three years as Director and that he “visits every area, every employee, from officers to health care workers to the records office.”
His actual quote referenced that 98% of the time he “bypasses the Warden’s office and goes directly into the prison,” whereas his predecessors’ typical prison tours amounted to “staying in the Warden’s office, drinking coffee.”
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Mid-morning precinct reports
Tuesday, Mar 18, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* There have been scattered problems reported in Chicago’s voting so far this morning. A handful of precincts in formerly powerful Democratic bastions haven’t had enough polling judges to open. Those wards include 32, 35, 23 and 4, which is the home of Toni Preckwinkle’s South Side organization. The failure to open has caused at least one legislative challenger to hint darkly of conspiracy…
* But the Chicago Board of Elections says this had nothing to do with any conspiracy. Sometimes, judges just don’t show up…
With reports of some polling stations opening more than an hour late Tuesday, officials with the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners were considering the relatively rare step of going to court to force those precincts to stay open late.
“People should still count on the polls closing at 7 p.m.,” said Jim Allen, spokesman for the election board. “However, there may be isolated incidents where we go to court and say that because polling places weren’t open or because they had difficulty getting equipment set up on time, or because judges arrived late or were not in attendance, we may have to go into court and ask that those particular precincts remain open a little bit longer.”
Allen said he had no reason to believe the delays were intentional, and election officials were still trying to determine how many precincts were affected.
* The Tribune has a piece on light Chicago turnout and heavier suburban turnout…
Business was more brisk at a polling place at Good Shepherd Evangelical Lutheran Church in Downers Grove. An election judge there said turnout was better than expected. […]
There was a small line of people waiting to vote at a polling place at St. John Lutheran Church in Darien.
“It’s been pretty busy, people come and go,” said election judge Marion Maida.
Andy Wrona, 32, of Darien said he voted mainly because his wife is a teacher. “The tough talk against unions made me come out and vote for a certain candidate,” he said.
* What’s going on in your neck of the woods?
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* Tribune…
Rauner said his campaign to collect enough signatures to put a measure on the ballot asking voters to amend the constitution to enact term limits has collected 320,000 signatures so far.
* That’s a bit more than he said he had almost a week ago…
“I’ve brought in U.S. Term Limits, an independent group, to acquire 300,000 signatures by May 4,” Rauner said at the town hall, one of several stops on a suburban bus tour. “They already have 310,000 but we probably need 450,000 to net down to 300,000.”
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Slight uptick detected
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* As I told you last week, We Ask America is monitoring who is voting early and absentee in the Republican primary.
Last week didn’t show much if any actual uptick in Democratic involvement. Independents were down six points from 2010, and Republicans and Democrats were up three points each as a share of the total.
As explained before, a Democrat is classified as somebody who has taken a “D” primary ballot at least once since 2008. Independents are those who have not voted in a partisan primary since 2008. The State Board of Elections’ voter file is matched up with the names of people who’ve already voted.
The final numbers for early and absentees are showing a little something, however…
So, the final early/absentee tally is more Democratic than four years ago, but it’s also more Republican and less independent.
And while there are slightly more Democrats voting than normal, after accounting for the drop in independents. it’s only about 800 votes out of almost 78,000 cast so far. At least, that’s my read.
Keep in mind this is only early and absentee voting. Things could be different tomorrow.
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Photos of the day
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Bruce Rauner and dog…
* Zombies in the mail box…
* Bill Brady and running mate…
* And last but not least…
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Cut those guys over there!!!
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Southern Illinoisan ran an editorial with the headline “More school cuts? Look somewhere else!”…
The school funding formula is a good place to start the work – and stop the bleeding from $800 million in education cuts since 2009. What’s needed is public support for a bipartisan reform plan touted by former Gov. Jim Edgar and members of a senate education committee. It would put most state education funding into one account, then require districts, including over-funded Chicago, to demonstrate their needs before receiving any funds. As we’ve previously said, Chicago currently receives a percentage of all state education dollars to spend at its own discretion – a system that yields the city hundreds of millions more than if it were held to the same standard as other school districts.
It’s time to take education off the chopping block.
We agree with Matt Vanover of the Illinois State Board of Education. “ … the future of Illinois really depends on how well we teach our students right now,” he said. “If we continue to cut our education, if we continue to cut back on K-12 learning, then we’re not going to have a workforce that’s going to be attractive to companies that want to come here.”
State budget cuts are coming. That seems certain. We don’t envy our lawmakers the task of putting the state’s finances in order, even though it’s one they deserve for many years of runaway spending. This time, lawmakers need to consider other alternatives to education cuts – including an overdue revision of the state school funding formula – before sharpening their budget knives.
The people of Illinois can’t afford the eventual price of more educational cuts – a further-damaged state business climate, more unskilled and idled workers, and high-priced strategies to deal with increases in crimes and social problems.
So, don’t cut education funding because that would be really bad for the state, except for Chicago, which obviously gets way too much money, so cuts there won’t hurt anything or anyone no matter what. There will be no “increases in crimes and social problems” if Chicago school dollars are cut. No impact on the business climate. No additional unskilled and idled workers.
Yeah.
That’s the ticket.
* Meanwhile, in the real world, Mark Brown writes about Fenger High School principal Elizabeth Dozier, who has emerged as the only real hero so far in CNN’s “Chicagoland” series…
To those of us who have trekked down to Roseland in recent years to witness the successes Dozier and her team have achieved at Fenger, the national attention is well deserved. That’s why I returned to Fenger this week to interview her.
She seemed wearier than her bubbly norm, most likely because she was fighting a cold that reduced her voice to a hoarse whisper.
But this also is a difficult period at Fenger, perhaps the toughest since Dozier’s first year in 2009 when, just weeks into the start of classes, student Derrion Albert was beaten to death on his way home from school.
That also was the first year Fenger received a $1.6 million annual federal grant that provided enough resources not only to help restore order but to give students a fighting chance at success.
Now, it’s Fenger’s first year without the federal money, and coupled with other CPS cuts, there’s a strain Dozier doesn’t try to hide.
“It stresses the building out. I think everyone is feeling it this year,” said Dozier, who has tried to minimize the impact on students by doubling up duties for faculty and staff.
But as everyone learns who tries to do more with less, there are limits. An average class size of 20 has jumped to 30, a huge difference for a student body that needs help with so much more than understanding the homework.
Yeah, so go ahead and cut Fenger’s state money even further. I’m sure it won’t do any harm whatsoever.
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Question of the day
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the twitters…
I tend to think more about the over-worked, under-paid, bone-tired staffers at times like this, but he has a good point, so…
* The Question: Who is in your thoughts on this day before the 2014 primary and why?
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Fun with numbers
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Adam Andrzejewski sent out a provocative e-mail last week. It began with a quote from a state legislator…
“Governor Quinn is driving a bus through loopholes in the Illinois procurement code.”
State Representative Dwight Kay (R-Glen Carbon)
* Andrzejewski continued…
Not even Rod Blagojevich thought of these loopholes…
Gov. Quinn is using intergovernmental agreements and grants to circumvent a competitive bidding process. Many thanks to Illinois Comptroller Judy Baar-Topinka for providing the data: total intergovernmental agreements (IGA) outside of a bid process totaled $1.8 billion (2013) and $5.2 billion since 2010!
* Andrzejewski claims IGA’s and grants have skyrocketed since the days of Rod Blagojevich…
AN EXPLOSION OF NO-BID GOODIES
Gov. Quinn’s total dollars in no-bid contracts and grants are 2,823% higher than the Blagojevich administration. Bidding a contract is important for transparency, competitive pricing, accountability and oversight.
* So I checked with the governor’s budget office. What’s going on here? They explained that if you take a look at the list AA compiled, you’ll see that these are grants to local governments, mainly due to the capital program. Rod Blagojevich had no capital program, hence the huge increase.
I communicated this to Andrzejewski and this was his response…
The point is not about the appropriation vehicle- capitol bill or otherwise. It’s about competitively bidding the contracts. It’s about distributing appropriated money in a manner where taxpayers are protected. We are not concerned with the appropriation vehicle, at this point. Our point is that a competitive procurement process has been undermined by loopholes in the code. Quinn is has driven $5.2 billion through those loopholes.
* But how is the procurement process undermined? These are grants to local governments for projects already in the pipeline and which, apparently, were bid at the local level. How do you bid grants like that? His response…
First, citizens needed to know the gross scale of growth in intergovernmental contracts/grants and you have to admit that $5.2 billion in four years with a topline 2,823% increase are big numbers. Illinois still has billions in unpaid vendor bills from general operations.
Secondly, we separately broke out the intergovernmental (IGA) contracts. The IGA’s have increased by 900% in the Quinn administration, from $44 million to $438 million last year. Again, at this point, we are not concerned with the funding purpose (construction, IT, etc.). Transparency, accountability and competition are thwarted with no-bid intergovernmental contracts. Quinn’s put “IGA contracting” on steroids.
* But, again, how do you bid that stuff? His response…
In my “first point” below, I covered the answer to your question below. In the “second point,” I cover the intergovernmental agreement contracts– and the gross majority of those can always go through a procurement process no matter what the purpose. Quinn must defend why it’s a 900% increase in no-bid IGA CONTRACTS. The only defense is the standard, “trust us we are saving you money.”
* I pointed out, yet again, that there was no capital program under Rod. His response…
Then it’s an interesting “defense” when the state is broke and billions are owed to vendors. To allow a 900% increase in no-bid contracts, to not frugally steward a half billion of hard earned taxpayer dollars, just because the lawmakers appropriated the money pot, is just another reason Illinois has net outward migration.
At that point, I gave up.
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#MassiveFail
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Greg Hinz looks at organized labor’s failures…
Unions kicked off the season by impotently watching as dozens of their Springfield allies abandoned ship and voted for a tough pension reform law that now needs only the final approval of the Illinois Supreme Court. More recently, they’ve spent nearly $4 million on what (unless all the polls are wrong) was a failed bid to prevent the virulently anti-labor Bruce Rauner from becoming the GOP nominee for governor. And when lawmakers return to Springfield after the March 18 elections, item one on the agenda is more pension cuts, this time for city and Chicago Public Schools workers.
“It’s really awful what’s happened,” concedes one top labor honcho, speaking privately. “I just don’t know right now if this movement has the capacity to build the next movement.”
I don’t know either. But even if it knocks off a couple of unfriendly lawmakers on March 18, Illinois’ labor movement risks becoming a chapter in the history books—right next to the one on Jimmy Hoffa. The question is: What should the movement do?
Part of the solution, I suspect, is putting someone in charge of the notoriously fractious labor “movement.” Someone who can act decisively.
That’s what was wrong with the multimillion-dollar TV blitz against Mr. Rauner. It started too late with too little, lacked focus and suffered from an identity crisis over whether to concentrate on taking out Mr. Rauner or electing someone else. The labor chiefs never quite figured out the answers. So, in consensus fashion, they did a little of this and a little of that—ineffectively. And now there’s less money available for November.
I wrote a long addendum to Greg’s piece, and then decided to save it for subscribers. So… discuss among yourselves.
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Today’s quotables
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Kirk Dillard…
“People are catching on to the fact that Bruce Rauner is a social liberal, and a vacation buddy and a member of Rahm Emanuel’s inner circle,” Dillard said. “And buyers better beware. They better know who Bruce Rauner is. He has a ton of scandals in his business background with many people that were his associates in federal penitentiaries. We’ve been down that road with Rod Blagojevich before.”
Dillard disputed Rauner’s claim to be a political outsider.
“He’s an insider to the max. He’s the worst kind of insider — the one that does the buying,” he said.
* From NPR…
Democrats are eager to paint Rauner as the second coming of Mitt Romney, only worse — an arrogant rich guy seeking to buy his way into top political office.
“There is hardly a more flawed candidate running for office in the country today,” claims Quinn consultant Mark Mellman. “He’s done Romney-like dismemberment of companies to his own benefit.”
* From Politico…
“I believe Rauner’s probably the only one who could beat Quinn,” said a veteran Democrat operative who did not want to be named. “The message he has is resonating in the Republican Party, but I think it is also resonating with independents and disenchanted Democrats. … And Rauner’s run a very good campaign, he’s proven to be a very good candidate.”
Some outside observers agree Republicans have a good shot at this one if Rauner wins the nomination on Tuesday.
“You’re starting with the fact that it’s a blue state, so for a Republican to win in Illinois, the right set of factors have to come in place,” said Brad McMillan, former chief of staff to then-Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.) who runs Bradley University’s public service institute. […]
But Democratic strategist Pete Giangreco, who ran Bill Daley’s short-lived primary challenge of Quinn before the former White House chief of staff dropped out, said the governor couldn’t pick a better challenger than Rauner.
“He’s probably the best guy for Quinn to run against,” Giangreco said. “Bruce Rauner is as phony as a $2 billion bill. This is a guy who has spent a record amount of his own money and he has defined himself negatively in a lot of people’s minds because all they know about him is he’s a billionaire and they see these ads where he looks like such a phony. They don’t buy him as a reformer. … And you can’t say that about Pat Quinn, that he’s dishonest. People don’t buy that.”
* Crain’s…
Going into this election, Mr. Quinn’s approval ratings are even worse than in 2010. The spread has widened, with 34 percent saying he has done a good job and 60 percent saying he has not, according to Raleigh, N.C.-based Public Policy Polling’s latest survey in November.
Since then, however, Mr. Quinn had perhaps the biggest accomplishment of his term, getting statewide pension reform enacted.
“In the final analysis, Quinn doesn’t run against his job approval rating, he runs against another human being,” says David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon institute.
* New York Times…
“It’ll be a rock ’em, sock ’em campaign,” Mr. Quinn acknowledged last week as he left a church basement in Chicago’s Pilsen neighborhood, where he was promoting efforts to raise the state’s minimum wage. “This is a tough state politically,” said Mr. Quinn, whose approval ratings, at times, have dipped to miserable lows.
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Caption contest!
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sen. Mike Frerichs, the Democratic candidate for state treasurer…
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The other Rauner/Walker comparison
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Last week, we looked at a comparison between Bruce Rauner and former Gov. Dan Walker. Today, let’s look at a comparison with a different Walker. From the AP…
When superrich Republican Bruce Rauner decided to run for governor of Illinois, it was clear this wouldn’t be the kind of race the state was accustomed to. Rauner, who made his fortune as a venture capitalist, was new to campaigning and bragged of being beholden to no one. He came out swinging at entrenched special interests and “government union bosses” with an intensity not seen before. […]
“I think all the national unions fear they’ll have another Scott Walker on their hands if he should come in,” said Don Rose, a longtime Chicago political analyst, referring to the Republican governor of Wisconsin who stripped state employee unions of most of their bargaining powers after his election in 2010. […]
Rauner, who made $53 million in 2012 but portrays himself as an everyman in a Carhartt jacket who loves hunting and fishing, is attempting to join the list of Republican business executives who have won office in recent years with no elective experience. They include former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, a former Eli Lilly official; Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, CEO of a plastics company, and Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, former CEO of the Gateway computer company. They ran as problem-solvers in states with serious economic problems.
Rauner has cited Walker and Snyder – who also championed anti-union policies_as his role models.
* Bloomberg…
“Illinois is part of the pattern — these rich folks are going wherever they see an opportunity, just like they did in Wisconsin, Indiana and Michigan,” said Henry Bayer, executive director of the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees Council 31, representing 95,000 workers and retirees in the state. “Illinois is experiencing some real difficulties, so they think they can make some inroads.” […]
Democrats hold veto-proof majorities in the Illinois Senate and House of Representatives, which would make it difficult for a Republican governor to enact his agenda. Organized labor, though, was caught off guard by Walker and union-weakening moves in other states. […]
Since Walker pushed through collective-bargaining restrictions in 2011, membership in Wisconsin Afscme, the state where the union was born, has plunged 60 percent. Republican governors and legislatures in Indiana and Michigan passed laws exempting nonunion employees from paying dues, the first of their type in the industrial Midwest. Republicans pushed similar legislation in Missouri, where Democratic Governor Jay Nixon has vowed to veto it.
“The folks in Illinois sort of feel like they’re surrounded,” said Robert Bruno, a professor of labor and employment relations at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. […]
“Bashing labor unions resonates with the Republican electorate,” said David Yepsen, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. “And the people of Illinois have had a bellyful of politics as usual.”
Expect to see a whole lot more of this particular comparison in the coming months.
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I’m really glad this one is over
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
Way back in 1992, I did a story about Dan Rutherford’s first run for the Illinois House of Representatives.
The House Democrats back then were quietly spreading rumors about Rutherford’s private life, hoping that the conservative, rural district would refuse to support someone who they said seemed to be gay. It was a classic “barber shop” play. Go where people hang out, like barber shops and taverns, and start spreading a rumor. Spread that rumor in enough places, and pretty soon lots of folks would eventually hear it and spread it themselves.
Without mentioning Rutherford’s name, I wrote that I knew the district pretty well. I didn’t reveal it in the story at the time, but I was raised on a farm in Iroquois County and my mom was born in Pontiac, near where Rutherford lives.
I wrote all those years ago that the Democrats were deluding themselves. Those voters weren’t just conservatives, they were dyed in the wool Republicans. They’d take a Republican over a Democrat any day of the week, pretty much no matter what the grapevine was saying. All the Democrats were doing was embarrassing themselves, I wrote, and they ought to cut it out. Rutherford won, of course. The Democrats’ tactic failed.
I remembered that story when the Sun-Times and the Tribune started publishing “exposés” about how Treasurer Rutherford had a habit of staying in the same hotel room or apartment with his male travel aide on some government and political trips. These stories served little apparent purpose other than to try and gin up that very same rumor mill about the candidate. The pieces were almost adolescently prurient in nature.
As with the Democrats almost 22 years ago, the newspapers never should’ve done that and should’ve instead risen above such nonsense.
The real angle here is that insiders say the young man in question was not comfortable with the arrangement. He has not, to my knowledge, alleged that Rutherford did anything specifically untoward, it’s just that he reportedly didn’t want to continue sharing rooms with his male boss. The story buttresses accounts that Rutherford puts some very weird pressure on some of his employees.
But this young man’s name was dragged through some very unseemly mud by the two largest newspapers in his home state. It wasn’t fair to him, let alone the whisper campaign damage it did to Rutherford.
Ten years after I wrote that first story in 1992, I was talking with Rutherford about a news item in his local paper about how he’d used campaign money for his legislative office expenses. The expenses appeared perfectly legal, but he was one of only a handful of people who were doing it at the time, so he caught some heat for it.
I suggested to Rutherford that this story might come back to haunt him if he attempted to move up to statewide office (Rutherford has been running for governor almost since he could walk).
Rutherford looked at me, got real quiet and then said, “Rich, you and I both know that if they come after me about something it won’t be about something like this.”
How right he was.
Last week, a reporter tweeted that Rutherford had decided to bar reporters from his election night party.
It’s hard to blame the guy.
Rutherford’s campaign says that a Chicago Tribune reporter showed up at the home of Rutherford’s mother at 9:30 one night to ask her highly personal questions about her son.
The campaign also confirmed reports I’d heard that the paper pursued the parents of Rutherford’s travel aide to demand to know if their son was gay after reports surfaced that the two men had shared rooms together. And the campaign confirmed that the Tribune pursued the aide’s ex-girlfriend with the same questions.
Look, Rutherford made some mistakes. Even some big mistakes.
But staking out a guy’s mom late at night and hounding the parents and ex-girlfriend of an employee with horribly inappropriate accusations seems way over the line to me. I mean, it’s not like Rutherford shot a man just to watch him die.
I always thought we were above the disgusting Hollywood paparazzi snooping level here in Illinois. I suppose I was wrong.
* Related…
* Dale Risinger endorses Kirk Dillard, abandons Dan Rutherford
* Rutherford winds down gov campaign with a whisper
* Rutherford to close Election night party to press
* Rutherford Staying Quiet During Election Night
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Edgar: Money matters and the polls are wrong
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Jim Edgar appeared with Sen. Kirk Dillard at campaign stops over the weekend…
Edgar said Rauner’s position as frontrunner is due to his flush campaign fund. Rauner has pumped $6 million of his own money into his campaign, however, he’s raised more than $6 million from others, including huge donations from some of the wealthiest people in the state.
“If he had the same amount of money as Kirk Dillard, Kirk Dillard would be ahead of him 3 to 1 in the polls today,” Edgar contended. “It’s purely money in my estimation, why he has the leads he has in he polls. The other thing I would also caution you. It’s very difficult to poll in a primary. Those numbers are not accurate. Turnout is the key. You don’t know what the turnout’s going to be. You don’t know what the cross over votes are going to be.”
Edgar says Rauner is ahead because of money and the polls are wrong. But isn’t that a wee bit contradictory?
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Poll shows Rauner holding on to large lead
Monday, Mar 17, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The latest from We Ask America as Bruce Rauner holding in the mid 40s. The poll of 1,126 likely GOP voters was taken last night. Numbers in parentheses are from a March 11th WAA poll…
Bill Brady 19% (19%)
Kirk Dillard 27% (26%)
Bruce Rauner 44% (46%)
Dan Rutherford 9% (9%)
Margin of error was ± 3 percent.
* The firm took those poll results and then calculated how many votes Sen. Dillard would need from unexpected crossovers to catch Rauner. If it’s a traditional 750,000 voter turnout, Dillard would need 126,600 outside votes to win. If the turnout is 800,000, Dillard would need 135,040 new crossovers to win…
That many votes represents a whole lotta love the unions have to generate for their crossover effort. Nothing of this scope has ever been accomplished in Illinois. Still, there may be enough crossover to move numbers tomorrow. But a few won’t be enough.
Dillard needs a stampede.
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[Comments are now open on this post.]
* The Sierra Club was trying to be helpful to Democratic state Rep. Jaime Andrade in his hotly contested, multi-candidate Chicago primary. Unfortunately, they put the wrong party affiliation on the thing. Major oops…
* The pro-choice group Personal PAC is using a photo of a vagina probe it its latest mailer targeting pro-life Republican House candidate Mark Batinick. I’m not gonna display it, but you can see it by clicking here. Also, I believe this same type of mailer is being used against other candidates.
Another anti-Batinick mailer is here.
* From a subscriber…
This was along a highway entrance ramp. Ferrand ran against Andrade but was kicked off the ballot by Schiavone allies. No “paid for” disclosure.
The sign…
* Here’s that National Organization for Marriage radio ad blasting Tom Cross. They use the voice of Jim Nalepa, of all people, to make their case…
* The IEA’s robocall urging members to vote for Kirk Dillard…
* The Illinois Federation of Teachers’ late mailer urging support for Dillard…
* But Bruce Rauner’s campaign isn’t letting up in the mail…
* The Windy City Times has demanded that groups using their copyrighted images stop doing so…
Windy City Times Attacks Use of Copyrighted Photos in Anti-gay 81st Distrtict Campaign
CHICAGO — Windy City Times newspaper is demanding that groups mailing bigoted, anti-gay attack fliers against state Rep. Ron Sandack immediately stop using its copyrighted photos.
Literature sent by the Illinois Family Action and the Liberty Principles PACs both use the same image of Sandack at a marriage equality rally in 2013, taken by Windy City Times staff photographer Kate Sosin. The Liberty Principles PAC also sent literature out in favor of Sandack’s opponent, Keith Matune, who has criticized Sandack’s support of same-sex marriage.
“Conservatives claim to respect property rights,” said Tracy Baim, Publisher of Windy City Times.
“Our Constitution protects the rights of these groups to send divisive, hate-filled mailings such as these,” Baim added. “But they are using our image to sell a product, hate, and we did not give them permission. We ask that they immediately stop using copyrighted photos.”
The literature also attacks Sandack for receiving donations from gay groups and individuals.
Sandack was one of three House Republications among the 61 reps voting for marriage equality in Illinois last fall. He represents the 81st District in the southwest suburbs.
Windy City Times is also pursuing other options, including possible legal action, to stop the unauthorized use of its images.
That’s only about a week too late, by the way.
* And the Republicans have scheduled their post-primary unity luncheon. From a press release…
On Wednesday, March 19th, the Illinois Republican Party will host a “March to Victory” luncheon following the Republican primary. Republican candidates for office and current officeholders will be on hand to address luncheon guests and the press.
“After ten years of one-party rule and five disastrous years of Pat Quinn as governor, the people of Illinois are desperate for a change,” said Illinois Republican Party Chairman Jack Dorgan. “Republicans are ready, and able, and eager to deliver, and we are working together toward our shared goal of victory in November.”
Who: Chairman Jack Dorgan, 2014 candidates plus elected officials [Full attendee list TBA]
What: March to Victory luncheon
When: Wednesday, March 19, 2014, 11:30 a.m.
Where: Union League Club, 65 W. Jackson Blvd., Room 710 Chicago, IL
* Other stuff…
* RAW VIDEO: Oberweis Explains Florida Getaway
* Oberweis Explains Pre-Election Trip To Florida
* Rauner: Wealth won’t decide GOP governor’s race
* Madigan backs lawmaker two years after expelling him
* VIDEO: Sen. Bill Brady joins Bruce and Dan
* VIDEO: Reggie Phillips Ad
* VIDEO: Shaw to run for Chicago Mayor
* VIDEO: Martin Sheen Joins Governor Quinn to Raise the Minimum Wage
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