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Daley retirement mania jumps the shark

Thursday, Sep 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* OK, maybe it’s time for the media to stop looking for every possible Daley retirement angle and tone it down a bit

With Mayor Richard Daley set to leave office, it’s time to bring back Meigs Field, according to private pilots who still bemoan the shutdown of the lakefront airport seven years ago.

General aviation pilots from across the country suggest that the changing political climate in the Chicago will not only lead to a new mayor, but also possibly a new Meigs.

“From what we’re hearing and seeing, the aviation blogs and Twitter are alive with conversations about whether Mayor Daley’s departure may create an opportunity to rebuild Meigs Field,” said Chris Dancy, spokesman for the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association.

Um, the blogs don’t seem to be lit up at all. Google Trends can’t show us a graph because there’s not enough search volume for “Meigs Field.” And the airport gets clobbered by Snooki in Google Fight.

There have been precisely two Tweets using the “reopenMeigs” hashtag in the past 24 hours, and five using the “Meigs” hashtag, and one of those was against reopening the airport. Most of the Twitter chatter yesterday was posted by one person who said he was working on a story about the topic, and who often Tweets about flight simulator programs. Meigs was the first airport on MS Flight before Daley carved those infamous X’s in its runway. Microsoft stopped including Meigs in the software and a few computer flight junkies were enraged.

The person quoted in the Tribune story gushing over all this newly invisible enthusiasm flaks for a group that published an article today about the possibility of reopening the field…

Although the airport was closed and turned into a park, AOPA President Craig Fuller has pledged to seek every opportunity to bring back Meigs Field.

“More than seven years have passed since Chicago’s Meigs Field was bulldozed under cover of darkness, but the airport has not been forgotten,” Fuller said. “Grassroots support for Meigs is still alive and many in the aviation community view Mayor Richard Daley’s decision not to run for re-election as a hopeful sign that the field could be restored.

Yeah. The field will be restored. They’re gonna kill off a lakefront park to rebuild an airport for state workers, millionaires and a handful of flight sim geeks when the city has no money. And people are clamoring for it because some pilots association flak says the Interwebtubes are just alive with activity, even though they’re not.

Sheesh.

* Meanwhile, Zorn provides us with something else to discuss in comments. What should be named after Mayor Daley?

Millennium Park seems like the obvious choice. It hasn’t been around long enough for a name change to rile traditionalists and it certainly has Daley’s stamp. But let’s stretch our minds:

What about the Kennedy Expressway? It was re-named for the slain president in a fit of post-assassination sentimentality, but JFK’s connection to Chicago wasn’t so significant that it belongs forever on such a major thoroughfare?

Lake Shore Drive? Midway Airport? Your ideas, please.

Have at it. Snark encouraged.

* Late afternoon Daleypalooza roundup…

* Sheriff Tom Dart would have ‘head start’ if chose to run for mayor - ‘I told people I’ll entertain it’

* Rep. Luis Gutierrez Considering Mayoral Run

* The Case for a Woman to Replace Mayor Daley

* The Case Against Rahm

* Expert: No More Mayor Daley Impacts All of Illinois

  64 Comments      


Bill Brady’s new TV and radio ads

Thursday, Sep 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rate the new TV ad



And the radio ad


  31 Comments      


Caption contest!

Thursday, Sep 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Statewide GOP candidates Judy Baar Topinka, Bill Brady and Dan Rutherford…

The person posting the funniest comment “wins” a cocktail hour with me in the Chicago or Springfield areas. I might even expand that geography if I know someone in your neck of the woods. I’m buying. You don’t have to drink to be eligible, but it helps.

  205 Comments      


Question of the day

Thursday, Sep 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The setup

Jeremy Schroeder, executive director of the Illinois Coalition to Abolish the Death Penalty, said public opinion on sentencing convicts to death is changing, and the state’s continued moratorium on the punishment, originally placed by former Gov. George Ryan in 2000 after innocent men were found on death row, shows the system isn’t working.

“After 10 years of a moratorium, we just have to admit, we can’t fix it,” Schroeder said.

A poll taken by the coalition in the spring shows 60 percent of Illinois voters would accept alternative sentences for criminals other than death, Schroeder said. He noted the greatest support is in the Chicago area, but a significant number of voters downstate also agree. The poll was taken by Lake Research Partners in Washington, D.C., and based on a telephone survey of 400 registered voters, with a margin of error at 4.9 percent.

Twenty men have been exonerated from death row after they were found to be wrongfully convicted, but prosecutors statewide continue to seek the death penalty in some cases at a cost of roughly $20 million annually, Schroeder said.


* The Question:
Should Illinois abolish the death penalty? Explain.

  64 Comments      


Quinn launches second “Who is this guy?” ad

Thursday, Sep 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rate Gov. Pat Quinn’s new TV ad


They brought up Brady’s Porsche and the Florida condo, then tied it to the minimum wage. Yikes. The gloves are officially off now, campers.

…Adding… Posted the wrong video for a minute. Oops. Fixed.

  117 Comments      


Poll: Only a third of Chicagoans favor Blagojevich retrial

Thursday, Sep 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 54 percent favoring and 37 percent opposed is not a “slim” majority, but here’s the Tribune’s new poll on whether Rod Blagojevich should be retried

A slim majority statewide, 54 percent, agreed with Fitzgerald’s decision [to retry Blagojevich], while 37 percent disagreed. Another 10 percent had no opinion in the survey of 600 registered Illinois voters conducted Aug. 28-Sept. 1. The error margin was 4 percentage points.

More interesting numbers…

In Chicago, 35 percent of voters favored retrial and 51 percent opposed it. But 54 percent of those in the Cook County suburbs and 57 percent of those in the collar counties agreed with the notion that Blagojevich should be retried, the survey found. […]

By a slight margin, voters who identified themselves as Democrats were more inclined to disagree with the decision to retry Blagojevich, the survey found. On the other hand, more than 7 out of 10 Republican voters surveyed said they backed a retrial.

There was also a stark difference between white and black voters on the issue. White voters were for a retrial by a wide margin: 60 percent to 31 percent. The position of black voters was almost the reverse: 63 percent against a retrial and 25 percent in favor.

The takeaway: US Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald is gonna have to present a far better case next time if he wants to convict this clown with that jury pool.

* Meanwhile, Judge Zagel overreacts

The federal judge handling Rod Blagojevich’s case said [yesterday] afternoon that after the former governor’s retrial, he will not release jurors’ names immediately after the verdict.

Instead, he plans to wait 24 hours after a verdict is in to make the names public, he said.

“That’s based on the experience some jurors had with the prompt release,” U.S. District Judge James Zagel said.

He gave the media until Nov. 1 to file any objections (as they did the last time around) disputing his closure of the names. The new trial is expected to begin early next year.

This is the same judge that advised jurors to call 911 if they didn’t like reporters’ questions.

* More case business

Also at Wednesday’s hearing, Zagel set several deadlines for attorneys. Prosecutors will have to notify him by Nov. 15 about any major expansion of the case - though the judge said that wouldn’t include notice about new witnesses the government many want to call.

Zagel also said he expected the retrial to take no longer than 2 1 / 2 months. The first trial initially was expected to last more than four months, but ended up running about 2 1 / 2 .

One reason a second trial could be expected to take less time is that Blagojevich now is the lone defendant. Last month, prosecutors dropped a bombshell by dismissing all charges against the ex-governor’s co-defendant, his brother Robert Blagojevich.

Zagel set the next status hearing for Oct. 1.

  13 Comments      


Two pollsters have bad news for IL Democrats

Thursday, Sep 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Public Policy Polling has quantified the “enthusiasm gap” in several states based on likely voter polling results from the past month…

From the pollster

The states where the Democratic dropoff is 10 points or more- Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maine, and North Carolina- all have incredibly unpopular Democratic Governors who aren’t that strong even within their own parties. Obama’s still pretty solid in those states at least within his own party, but a sense that their party’s current leaders at the state level have not gotten the job done could be making Democrats less inclined to get out to the polls.

* Meanwhile, Rasmussen has a new poll out and the pollster finally added the Green Party nominee to the mix. That may have jumbled the results a bit. Ras still hasn’t added the Libertarian Party candidate, however, so we don’t yet have an accurate picture of the race. Numbers in brackets are from previous Rasmussen polls…

Kirk: 37% [40%, 40%, 41%, 39%, 42% 46%, 41%, 41%, 46%]

Giannoulias: 34% [42%, 40%, 43%, 40%, 39% 38%, 37%, 44%, 40%]

Jones: 12% [N/A]

Other: 3% [6%, 8%, 6%, 9%, 7% 5%, 8%, 5%, 4%]

Unsure: 14% [12%,12%, 10%, 12%, 12% 12%. 13%, 10%, 10%]

With leaners…

Kirk: 41% [45%]

Giannouolias: 37% [45%]

Jones: 9% [N/A]

Other: 5% [3%]

Unsure: 9% [8%]

The Giannoulias campaign points out that the Republican Rasmussen may be “agenda setting” again. Their polls in recent days haven’t matched up well with others, including Barbara Boxer (where Rasmussen had the Republican up and the Democrat down, contradicting the CNN/TIME poll) and Jack Conway (where Rasmussen had the Republican way up and CNN/TIME had it tied).

* From the pollster

If leaners are not included, Kirk has 37% support to Giannoulias’ 34% and Jones’ 12%, suggesting as is often the case that support moves away from third party candidates to one of the major party nominees as Election Day approaches. In the previous survey, Giannoulias captured 42% of the vote to Kirk’s 40% when voters were asked their initial preference.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Kirk voters say they are already certain how they will vote in November, as do 53% of Giannoulias’ supporters and 40% of those who are backing Jones. […]

Eighty-two percent (82%) of GOP voters favor Kirk, a fifth-term U.S. congressman, while just 69% of Democrats support Giannoulias, currently the state’s elected treasurer. Green draws single-digit support from voters in both major parties and 13% of those who are not affiliated with either the Democrats or the Republicans. Kirk leads Giannoulias by more than two-to-one among these unaffiliated voters.

Giannoulias is viewed favorably by 42% of Illinois voters and unfavorably by 44%.

For Kirk, favorables are 45%, and unfavorables are 39%.

Twenty-six percent (26%) have a favorable opinion of Jones, an African-American journalist, while 30% regard him unfavorably. But 44% don’t know enough about the Green Party candidate to venture any opinion of him.

Only eight percent (8%) of Illinois voters rate the U.S. economy as good, while 56% of voters in President Obama’s home state describe the economy as poor. Twenty-six percent (26%) say the economy is getting better, but 46% believe it is getting worse.

Fifty-three percent (53%) approve of the president’s job performance, while 45% disapprove. Obama’s job approval ratings in Illinois havenot unchanged for months and are higher than the numbers he earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

* Methodology…

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on September 7, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

* TPM PollTracker.

  16 Comments      


Rate the new TV ads from Kirk, Hare, Hultgren

Thursday, Sep 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Republican Congressman Mark Kirk told the media yesterday that he was up with a new positive ad. As I told you yesterday, Alexi Giannoulias’ campaign thought the positive spot was a “head fake,” and that Kirk would go negative. They appear to have been right. Watch the “real” Kirk ad


* Democratic Congressman Phil Hare’s new ad


A story about the ad is here. The Hotline has a piece today about how this district is one of five that may flip to the Republicans without the Democrats knowing about it. That’s false. The Democrats do know about the troubles there. It’s the media that’s just catching on.

* 14th Congressional District Republican challenger Randy Hultgren’s new TV ad


  32 Comments      


Poll: Emanuel leads the pack

Thursday, Sep 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* We Ask America polled Chicago last night and found Rahm Emanuel leading the pack, with Sheriff Tom Dart and Congressmen Jesse Jackson, Jr. and Luis Guitierrez bunched up in the race for second place. Click the pic for a larger image…

Now for the caveats. I used this robo-poll firm a couple of years ago and had some concerns about response rates among African-Americans and Latinos. They have been trying harder since then, but Latinos are underrepresented in this poll by more than half.

Some names are obviously missing, but this is still an interesting mix. We’re looking at name recognition here. That will change if other lesser known candidates can raise the bucks.

Also, if you want to see how poorly the Daley name is faring these days, just look at Bill Daley’s numbers. Not great.

Methodology

2,365 participants

Ethnic breakdown:
African American: 37.69%
Asian: 4.95%
Hispanic: 11.86%
White: 35.49%
Other/Refused: 10.01%

How the names were chosen…

As we pull the trigger on this poll, we’ve found 40+ possible candidates mentioned in published reports, with more queuing up for consideration. We wanted to narrow it down to ten (because there’s only ten digits on a phone for an automated poll), so we added up the articles and chose the ten who were mentioned in the most clippings–not exactly as precise our usual polls…but what the heck. This is for fun.

* Daley roundup…

* With Daley’s news, eyes also on city’s police chief

* Weis knows his days as superintendent numbered

* Roeder: Daley exit tough for biz: Unable to write checks toward another Daley victory, business executives will take their time and survey the field. Many will sit out a probably contentious election, or get involved only if the field is narrowed to two for an April runoff. “There is no up side to jumping in this early,” said Guy Chipparoni, president of the public relations firm Res Publica Group, which counsels clients on business and public policy.

* McQueary: Daley’s farewell: A rebirth for the third airport?

* Daley era ends: What is the fate of future Wal-Marts?

* Daley era ends: How will plans for O’Hare, Midway define his legacy?

* Daley Business-Like at City Council Meeting; Aldermen Honor Mayor

* Possible Windfall for Daley After Surprising Announcement

* Reardon: Mayor’s leaving us high and dry: I’m sorry, Mayor Richard Daley. You may be tired. You may want to spend more time with your wife. I’m sure you know a lot more than I do about how bruising a re-election race could be next year and about what federal investigators may have found in their prying into your City Hall. But walking away from your fifth floor office right now, saying, “It’s time,” is just wrong. You’re abandoning the people of Chicago to the reality of democracy — but without the skills of democracy.

* Sun-Times: Aldermen must get to work, cut spending

* City Council Budget Hearing Could be More Hectic this Year

* Did Daley’s hits outweigh his misses?

* City Council approves $1B bonds for O’Hare

* City OKs $1 billion for O’Hare mega-project

* City Council Approves O’Hare Bond

* Kadner: This 2-hour election a bunch of CUDD

* Suburbs also will feel Daley’s absence

* Daily Herald: Daley’s successor and the suburbs

  29 Comments      


Morning Shorts

Thursday, Sep 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Owners: Merchandise Mart not for sale

The owners of the Merchandise Mart say the building is not for sale, despite reports over the weekend that they were looking for a buyer.

Crain’s Chicago Business had reported that Vornado Realty Trust wanted to sell the two-block, 25-story building.

* Tribune Co. names general counsel to chief restructuring post

* 2 firms make pitches for running Illinois Lottery

* Two firms make case to run Illinois Lottery

* Companies outline proposals to run Ill. lottery

* Two Finalists Vying to Manage the Illinois Lottery Make Their Case

* Appliance rebates Part II: Sept. 24

* Southtown Star: Local leaders fail would-be workers

* Navistar to move HQ to Lisle

* Navistar is reborn

* Navistar’s Headquarters Will Stay In Illinois

* Navistar move to boost company’s area workforce to 3,000

* Navistar Picks Lucent Lane for $110M HQ Move

* Navistar sets sights on Joliet, Lisle sites

* Navistar is reborn

* Navistar Stays in Northern Illinois

* Quinn: Navistar Keeping Good Jobs in Illinois

* Navistar plans leave Harvard out

* Navistar Makes It Official, HQ And More Consolidating in Chicago Area

* Navistar exit official

* White House names Asian carp czar

* Angry Daley rips community for not naming cop’s killer

One day after announcing his decision not to seek a seventh term, Daley lashed out at the code of silence that has prevented police from solving the July 18 murder of Chicago Police Officer Michael Bailey.

It happened during a City Council debate on a resolution honoring Bailey, the third Chicago Police officer killed during a two-month period.

The Bailey murder remains unsolved, despite reward money topping $130,000.

* EP honors slain Chicago cop who once served village

* Most Chicago violent crime numbers down

The city had five more homicides through the end of August than the year-earlier period, bringing the total number to 313. But that is still lower than the 338 homicides recorded through the end of August 2008. […]

Through August, robberies dropped by 14.1 percent, criminal sexual assaults dropped by 10.1 percent and aggravated batteries dropped by 6.1 percent.

“These numbers are unacceptable until they’re zero,” Assistant Superintendent James Jackson said at a news conference Friday.

* Murders down, but violence still plagues areas of city

Still, Chicago has remained a more violent place than New York or Los Angeles based on the ratio of crime to population. The mayor could never shake the image of Chicago as a haven for gangsters going back to the days of Al Capone. That image may have been one reason why Chicago lost its bid to host the Olympics in 2016 — even though winner Rio de Janeiro is far more harrowing in some areas.

* Quinn announces redo of I-80/Route178

* Quinn Announces $100 million for Illinois high-tech infrastructure

* Quinn announces $14.9 million Utica interchange

* Push For Road Money Hits Same Political Speed Bump

* White House Names Carp Czar, Testimony Over Fish Continues

* Anti-carp barriers have weaknesses: Corps

* Malpractice costs top $55 billion a year in U.S., Harvard study says

* Prison reform advocates lament Randle’s departure

* Grayslake allows village’s first wind turbines

* Naperville OKs tow fees for criminal offenses

* Naperville Dist. 203 support staff contract OK’d

* Elgin OKs pawnshops within city limits

* Elgin fire chief to bid farewell, again

* DuPage Housing Authority again will accept applications

* More details sought on Kane budget requests

* Start in sight for Lake County road projects

* Kane County circuit court clerk may be hit with lawsuit by next week

“Since the circuit clerk has signed the taxpayers up to spend tax dollars on private attorneys for her on the premise that she’s suing the taxpayers, let’s get on with it so we can better understand how to resolve this year-end budget dilemma,” McConnaughay said.

The comment came after yet another county board committee rejected Seyller’s request for a midyear, $555,000 cash infusion for her budget. The need for more money stems from the hiring of 14 employees over the past two years. Some of those hires replace employees who left. Others were new staff positions.

* Eureka College set to celebrate Reagan’s 100th

* Leaders focus on destination development

  3 Comments      


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Thursday, Sep 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Thursday, Sep 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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This just in… Miguel del Valle to run for mayor… Rahm’s lame duckiness

Wednesday, Sep 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 6:44 pm - Sources say that Chicago City Clerk Miguel del Valle told several aldermen and others today that he’s running for mayor.

Besides the dynamic the former state Senator brings to the race, del Valle’s move also means the city clerk’s office is now up for grabs.

Del Valle had only $948.08 in his campaign account as of the end of June, but he has reportedly told friends that he will quickly ramp up. He reportedly wants to get petitions out on the street this weekend.

* For a bit of comparison, Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart had $191,855.67 in his account as of June 30. Sandi Jackson had $66,966.37 in her aldermanic account and $15,716.47 in her ward account. Rahm Emanuel has $1.2 million.

…Adding… And speaking of del Valle’s petitions, Zorn points out a very good reason to get those sheets out on the streets as soon as possible

A voter can sign as many mayoral nominating petitions as he or she wishes, but only the first one counts, as Chicago Board of Elections Commission spokesman Jim Allen reminds us. The second, third and all subsequent signatures are technically invalid and will be erased if challenged.

This means the first mayoral candidate to knock on the doors on your block not only stands the best chance of getting valid signatures, but it also means that any signatures he gathers above the minimum are signatures that other hopefuls can’t get.

He who hesitates will lose.

*** 7:08 pm *** Politico

“I got a call from [someone close to Emanuel] telling me to expect a call from Rahm,” said one prominent Chicago Democrat, who had yet to hear from him as of Wednesday night.

“My sense is he’s got to do an assessment as to what his support would be and what his campaign would look like. . .He’s not in Chicago, so that makes it tough for him to know what people here are thinking,” added the person, who agreed to lobby others on Emanuel’s behalf, if he decides to run.

Emanuel himself, according to administration sources, knows he must make a decision relatively soon to be a viable player back home. But he doesn’t feel that waiting a while will compromise his chances.

Something that I’m not sure anyone has really talked about is the longer this talk lasts about a mayoral bid, the less influence he’s gonna have in the White House and DC in general. He’s gonna become a lame duck pretty darned fast, if he hasn’t already.

* 8:06 pm - OK, this has to be the goofiest write-up about the pending Chicago mayoral race I’ve seen so far. The Washington Times quotes a DC/Pennsylvania-based Republican consultant and a San Francisco-based Democratic consultant about Chicago politics. Sheesh.

  46 Comments      


This just in… Emanuel cancels Sunday Chicago event

Wednesday, Sep 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 4:39 pm - An organizer of the Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson fundraiser this Sunday in Chicago featuring Rahm Emanuel has just sent out a notice saying that the event has been postponed “due to circumstances which are probably obvious to most.”

So, no Rahmapalooza this Sunday, I’m afraid. They’re looking at September 26th instead.

* Meanwhile, this could give you something to chew on tonight. From Greg Hinz

Gov. Pat Quinn, his election effort already reeling, appears to have suffered a staggering blow with Mayor Richard M. Daley’s stunning decision to retire.

There only is so much political energy in any town, even Chicago, and now all the energy here is going into the wide-open race for mayor.

That leaves little if anything for Mr. Quinn, who badly needs to rally Chicago’s Democratic base if he’s to get back into the contest with GOP nominee Bill Brardy.

It ain’t over yet, not with two months of campaigning left. But Mr. Daley’s oxygen-sucking move is the last thing Illinois’ rookie governor needed.

Agree or disagree?

  28 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Mark Kirk goes up with positive ad

Wednesday, Sep 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rate it


From The Hill

Republican Mark Kirk’s newest ad, which is set to go up on the air this week, according to a campaign spokesman, is positive and doesn’t mention his Democratic opponent.

“In a country where too many just vote the party line, there are only a few thoughtful, independent leaders who do what’s right for us,” the female announcer says in the ad.

The 30-second spot, which paints Kirk as “independent and effective,” was produced by Larry McCarthy of McCarthy Marcus Hennings.

*** UPDATE - 6:54 pm *** Just about every person I’ve talked to close to the Giannoulias campaign believes this ad will not run more than a few times. Even some Republicans say they don’t expect this to be up long. We’ll see.

  20 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Burris takes himself out *** Three Jackson family members considering mayoral bid, Brown is out, and Daley won’t endorse

Wednesday, Sep 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

*** UPDATE *** Burris won’t do it

Sen. Roland Burris, D-Ill., who has run for nearly every major office in the state, says he is not interested in replacing Richard M. Daley as mayor of Chicago.

“No, I’m not interested in running for mayor of Chicago,” Burris told reporters before he toured Southwind Park in Springfield this morning.

“Certainly there’ll be talk. Fortunately, my name has not been mentioned, so that’s on the good side.

Asked why he won’t run, Burris said, “How much money do you got? Get $5 million and then talk to me.”

Yeah. That’s why. I’m sure.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* Ald. Sandi Jackson said told NBC5 that she and her husband the congressman are both considering the mayor’s race

“I’m considering it,” said Ald. Jackson Wednesday. “I love campaigns.”

Asked whether or how that affected Jesse Jr.’s mayoral ambition, Ald. Jackson said they would discuss the matter at home.

“My husband and I will sit down and decide if either of us will run,” she said.

And Congressman Jackson’s brother just floated his own name to the Chicago Defender

Chicago State University business professor Jonathan Jackson is also interested.

“I had not seriously considered it before but now I am,” Jonathan Jackson told the Defender. “I will take a strong look at it and make a decision fairly soon.”

* Meanwhile, we can take Dorothy Brown off the list

“I am not running for mayor. It’s just something I have not thought about,” she said. “But I do think a Black candidate has just as good of a chance of winning as any other candidate if they are qualified.”

* Greg Hinz looks at CTA Chairman Terry Peterson and state Sen. James Meeks…

Mr. Peterson — who’s held a half-dozen city gigs and clearly knows the game — could be formidable. If, that is, he’s willing to put aside his comfy private sector gig and really go for the gold. I have my doubts.

Mr. Meeks has feinted before for higher office, but he’s putting on a good show this time. Best-known as a leading advocate for better funding of schools, he comes out of Jesse Jackson Jr.’s organization. And he has one other interesting credential: He’s built, from scratch, a huge church and congregation in his day job as a minister, something that ironically could help him with the business community.

Peterson was uncommittal yesterday when asked about a possible race.

* I told subscribers that Daley would do this earlier today

A day after announcing he won’t seek another term, Mayor Richard Daley said he won’t endorse anyone in the race to succeed him.

“It can be the people of the city of Chicago that will make that decision,” Daley said. “The people of Chicago can make that recommendation.”

Thoughts?

  35 Comments      


Is Cohen the $6 million man? Plus: Read the Cohen oppo book; Third party updates

Wednesday, Sep 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This story broke while I was on vacation…

A Chicago pawnbroker said he will spend between $5 million and $6 million to get out his message - that he’s a successful small businessman and not a politician - in an unlikely race for Illinois governor.

Cohen said he would spend $3 million in the primary, but ended up spending about $2 million (and another half mil or so through the end of June). Pretty much everybody ignored Cohen’s spending plan announcement before the primary and we saw how that ended. But even if he spends $3 to $4 million on the general, that’s a whole lot of cash and completely unprecedented for an independent candidate here. The media is gonna blow it again if reporters don’t start covering this man.

* Gov. Pat Quinn is trying to attack Cohen, but most reporters aren’t paying much attention. The other day, Quinn demanded that Cohen release his tax returns, and it was buried in an AP roundup

Quinn called on the wealthy businessman to make his income taxes public, as other candidates have. He also suggested Cohen and his family have taken advantage of the poor.

“I don’t know why anybody would ever vote for him. He has run a pawnbroking business. His family’s been involved in currency exchanges,” Quinn said.

* The reason Quinn is pushing the tax returns angle is because he is in possession of an opposition research report that heavily stresses Cohen’s extensive use of cash and lack of personal checking accounts. You can read that Cohen OR report by clicking here. I gave Cohen’s media advisor a chance to respond to what was in the report, but he declined. The report was prepared soon after the primary. I obtained it through a second-hand source and then verified where it came from.

* In other third party news, Libertarian Party US Senate candidate Mike Labno recently went off on Republican Mark Kirk. Click here for the audio. Transcript…

“I want to talk about many of the issues, Mark Kirk and one of the things you asked me to talk about was where our differences are. Our differences, between Mark Kirk and I, are great. The guy is practically a Democrat. I’m not even sure how he got on the Republican ticket in the first place. But when it comes to economics he’s just another big spender, cap and trade is where his interest lies.”

Background on Libertarian success, or lack thereof

Historically, Libertarian candidates have received an average of just over 1 percent of the vote in Illinois Senate races, most recently in 2004 and 2008.

The Giannoulias folks are hoping Labno pulls away votes in a close race. We’ll see. So far, polls are showing that Kirk is doing pretty well with conservatives.

* Green Party gubernatorial nominee Rich Whitney is still acting like Don Quixote

During an appearance at a Springfield coffeehouse last month, Whitney had an audience of fewer than a dozen people.

* And Forrest Claypool’s independent campaign has been sued

A former Cook County Board of Review employee filed a libel and defamation suit Tuesday in Cook County Circuit Court against assessor candidate Commissioner Forrest Claypool and his campaign.

Victor Santana filed the chancery suit against Claypool, Citizens for Claypool and campaign manager Tom Bowen charging that a post on the campaign’s joeberrios.com website was “factually inaccurate.”

The Claypool campaign has used the site to embarrass Board of Review Commissioner Joseph Berrios, the Democratic nominee for assessor, and to bolster Claypool’s independent candidacy. Republican Sharon Strobeck-Eckersall and Robert Grota of the Green Party are also seeking the office.

Santana took issue with a post implicating him in an investigation into charges that state Rep. Paul Froelich, an Arlington Heights Democrat, used his influence to get assessment appeals lowered before the Board of Review.

  37 Comments      


Question of the day

Wednesday, Sep 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* In your opinion, who would be the single best and the single worst candidate for mayor of Chicago? Try to stick to those whose names have already been floated, please. Rod Blagojevich, Scott Lee Cohen, etc. aren’t exactly helpful here.

…Adding… Try to explain, please.

  81 Comments      


Silver gives Brady 86.7 percent chance of winning

Wednesday, Sep 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Nate Silver of the legendary 538 polling/projection blog has moved over to the New York Times. Silver’s prediction for the Illinois governor’s race is gonna give lots of Democrats a bad case of heartburn…

I think the final margin may be pretty close to Silver’s projection. And the 86.7 percent chance Brady wins makes sense at the moment. We’ll see.

* On to the US Senate

Unless Quinn can get his act together soon, he will definitely hamper Giannoulias, no matter what Alexi is telling the media. I find myself agreeing with Silver here.

* Nate apparently hasn’t gotten around to handicapping our congressional races yet, but here’s a link for future reference.

* Campaign 2010 roundup…

* Giannoulias will call out Kirk on WMDs, resume boost

* Giannoulias attacks Kirk over Iraq war vote

* FACT CHECK: Giannoulias attacks Kirk on Iraq

* Biggest police union backs Brady

* Biggert, Harper differ on offshore drilling

* Noland, Rauschenberger square off in heated radio debate

* Our Opinion: Illinois needs open primary system

  49 Comments      


The Daley explosion

Wednesday, Sep 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As usual, Congressman Bobby Rush throws down the gauntlet

“I must admonish the media to end its coordinated commentary on who will be the next mayor of the city of Chicago,” Rep. Bobby Rush (D-Ill.) said in a statement, alluding to his African American constituents’ ability to influence the race. “Whoever that person will be will have to come through my community….before anyone is deemed an imaginary front-runner in this particular race, they should pause and take that into consideration.”

Make no mistake about it, race will play a huge role in this campaign. Period. There’s no getting around this, no matter how distasteful Rush’s tactics can be. The question becomes whether black politicos can rally around one person. I don’t see that yet, partly because there’s a growing old/young split in the African-American leadership. But there’s a lot of time left. Pretty much the same thing goes for Latinos.

* David Axelrod told ABC News that Rahm Emanuel would have the president’s blessing if he went for the mayor’s job…

“The mayoralty in Chicago is an unbelievealy attractive opportunity,” Axelord said in a West Wing interview. “And I’m sure if Rahm decides to do that, the President will support that decision.”

* He’s definitely laying the groundwork with targeted leaks

But staffers at the White House expect that Emanuel will run, one administration official said, recalling what the chief of staff said several weeks ago: “If and when Rich doesn’t run, I’ll do it.”

* Sabato may not be right about this point

One analyst said he doesn’t think Chicago voters would blame Emanuel for failures in Obama’s political strategy, or for Democrats’ poor performance in the midterms.

“If there’s one place that wouldn’t matter, it’d be Chicago,” said Larry Sabato, professor of politics at the University of Virginia, adding that city voters would view his Washington relationships as assets. “’This guy has connections that could do us a lot of good.’ That’s how they think.”

We don’t know what the situation will look like on November 3rd, and if it’s really bad and Emanuel is still in the White House then the mayor’s spot will look like a consolation prize for a horrible loser. That could definitely hurt him. Plus, the Chicago media is not going to give this guy a free ride just because the DC media is all focused on him. It’s just about the toughest town in the news biz, and Rahm ain’t gonna coast through by any means. For example, here’s Lynn Sweet’s lede

While White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel is lionized in Washington, he would not start a mayoral race in Chicago automatically first in line to replace Mayor Daley.

Bloomberg Chicago

“I don’t think there is such a thing as frontrunner,” said JPMorgan Chase & Co. Midwest Chairman William Daley, the mayor’s brother, a former U.S. commerce secretary and an Emanuel friend.

Other political experts agree that the opening is likely to attract a large number of candidates and that Emanuel, who still owns a home in the city, wouldn’t have the field to himself.

“He’s an opportunist, but he’s got his work cut out for him,” said John McCarron, an urban affairs writer and adjunct professor at DePaul University in Chicago.

And Phil Kadner

Already, ethnic leaders (black, Hispanic, Polish and Irish) are carving up the countryside like tribal chiefs in some medieval kingdom.

* Keep in mind that whoever runs for mayor will need access to field operations and money

Emanuel has a million dollars in his campaign fund and formidable fund-raising ability, giving him a running start against rivals — if he jumps in the contest. Emanuel, a former House member from a district anchored on the North Side, is without a solid political base in Chicago. The unions and other progressives are mad at him over national issues that would seep into a mayoral contest.

Emanuel would have to do a lot of work to get Democratic committeemen to unite around his candidacy — but he knows a thing or two about coalition building.

* The Tribune has a comprehensive list of most of the candidates who are being talked about. More from CBS2

Right now, there are more names being floated than ABC’s in a vat of alphabet soup. We’re hearing boomlets for City Council powerhouse Ed Burke, Chief Judge Tim Evans and even County Assessor Jim Houlihan… If elected, Huberman would be Chicago’s first openly gay mayor. But back in April, Ald. Tom Tunney (44th) said he would be interested in holding that distinction. He said he would be interested in “exploring the possibility” of running for mayor if Daley retired.

Sun-Times

Gery Chico, 54, who lost a race for Senate to Barack Obama, was appointed by Daley recently to head up the City Colleges of Chicago. Chico says he’s seriously considering a run, even though he just recently gave away the last of his campaign funds to charity.

“My phone’s been ringing all day with people urging me to run — it’s something I’m very seriously considering,” Chico said.

Freshman Rep. Mike Quigley isn’t ruling out a run. About the only one who flat-out said no was former Chicago Schools CEO Paul Vallas, who has another year left on his contract running the New Orleans schools.

* And Zorn makes a good point

I’m skeptical that any one alderman has the appeal and political ability to be a strong challenger, but maybe that’s just me.

* Mark Brown handicaps the field

If Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart becomes a candidate as expected, he quickly becomes the favorite and shuts the door on a number of hopefuls. He’s riding a wave of good press, appeals to both Machine types and Independents and hasn’t burned his bridges in the African-American community.

But he won’t scare everyone off.

White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel won’t be backed down by a Dart candidacy — and vice versa. Just the same, Emanuel doesn’t seem well-positioned at this moment to make a run, and while he’d be the best-funded candidate, it’s not entirely clear where he finds his niche.

Attorney General Lisa Madigan could throw everything up for grabs if she were interested, though she has never indicated she would be.

If African-American voters were to unite around a candidate as they did with Washington, they could put that individual in the runoff. But if they could agree on a candidate, Daley probably wouldn’t have been mayor for 21 years.

* And Kass makes a good point about what Chicago could be in for

With Daley’s announcement, Burke will gain power, as the aldermen seek to reassert themselves after spending decades stamping Daley’s writs with their rubber foreheads.

Uncertainty and anarchy scares the business community more than just about anything else. It’s bad enough that the state can’t get its act together. If the city’s politics fall apart, then biz leaders are gonna freak.

* Roundup…

* Daley might retire with extra $1.5M: As of June 30, the mayor had $1,479,823 left in his campaign fund. And under state law, he can claim that as income as long as he pays taxes on it.

* Key dates, requirements on road to Daley’s successor

* Advisers cried, Daley choked up behind scenes

* One hell of a mayor, but Daley makes right call to say so long

* Daley faces aldermen for first time since big announcement

* Did Daley’s hits outweigh his misses?

* Daley’s reign a bit cloudy, a bit sunny

* Murders down, but violence still plagues areas of city

* Most Chicago violent crime numbers down

* Blame the gangs?

* Business leaders laud city’s progress

* Daley reforms revitalized a failing CPS

* Marin: Daley we thought we knew surprises us again

* Mayor knew, nurtured city’s soul

* Daley a father figure for Chicago

* A mayor who showed his love

* Daley announcement not so stunning, really

* Chicago after Daley

* Willis Tower, Macy’s, and life without Daley

* Timeline of Daley’s life, career

* Bridgeport reacts to Daley’s decision

  58 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition

Wednesday, Sep 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Wednesday, Sep 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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*** UPDATED x1 *** Alexi goes up with Obama ad

Wednesday, Sep 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Democratic US Senate nominee Alexi Giannoulias is up with a new statewide ad buy featuring President Obama. Rate it


ADDING: The video should be working now.

*** UPDATE *** Response from National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Press Secretary Amber Marchand…

Is this the ‘change’ that President Obama believes in? After telling Americans that our country doesn’t need another banker in Washington, he wants Illinois voters to elect a failed mob banker who loaned millions of dollars to known criminals? How are Illinois voters supposed to ‘trust’ Giannoulias with their pocketbooks after he squandered millions of taxpayer dollars set aside for the state’s college fund? How does the President propose that Illinois voters ‘count on’ Giannoulias after he drove his own family’s business into the ground, forcing the government to pay for his risky loans and reckless behavior? Shooting hoops and calling his buddy from Chicago a ‘friend’ is one thing, but President Obama should know that Illinois voters deserve more than a reckless mob banker with a thin resume of experience in the U.S. Senate.”

  41 Comments      


This just in… Good news for a change

Wednesday, Sep 8, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

Bumped up for visibility.

* 7:36 pm - A group of way overboard NIMBYs lost a big one, thankfully

Officials from Navistar International Corp. are expected to announce the engine manufacturing company’s plan to move its headquarters to Lisle at a Wednesday morning press conference, DuPage County Board president Bob Schillerstrom said Tuesday. […]

Navistar President Dan Ustian, Gov. Pat Quinn and Attorney General Lisa Madigan, as well as other state and local leaders, are expected to be at the 10 a.m. press conference at the Alcatel-Lucent site, 2701 Lucent Lane, in Lisle.

Navistar officials previously said they were exploring locations in Alabama, Texas and South Carolina because of local opposition to the proposed headquarters site in Lisle. The company is currently located in Warrenville.

In one November hearing before the village’s planning and zoning commission, about 100 people spoke out against Navistar’s proposal, including nearby residents and representatives of a school for autistic children that had just opened next door to the building. They were concerned in part about air pollution, noise, traffic and safety issues.

Background here.

  26 Comments      


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