* David Hoffman is, indeed, surging, but he’s still in third place according to the new Tribune poll. December Tribune poll results are in parentheses…
Giannoulias 34 (31)
Jackson 19 (17)
Hoffman 16 (9)
Meister 1 (1)
Undecided 13 (21)
Most of the undecideds appear to be breaking to Hoffman, but a lot of this movement is within the margin of error, so be cautious.
Jackson, the lone African-American contender in the Democratic contest, has the support of 48 percent of black voters, which has helped keep her virtually even with Giannoulias among Chicago voters. But Jackson’s percentage of black support has not increased significantly since December, while Giannoulias’ backing from African-Americans has roughly doubled to nearly a quarter of the black vote.
Giannoulias also holds a healthy edge over his rivals of 2-to-1 or better among suburban Cook County and collar-county voters.
Experience has shown that an African-American candidate can go from 50 percent to 85 percent of the black vote in a heartbeat late in the game, so keep that in mind.
Three major candidates have gained a few points in name recognition and favorable ratings. Former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman has been critical in TV ads of Alexi Giannoulias about Bright Start college fund losses due to Oppenheimer Core Fund investments in mortgage-backed securities, plus questionable loan recipients from his family’s bank. However, there is not much indication this led to increased unfavorability for Giannoulias, +3 points.
* On to the Republicans…
Kirk 47 (41)
Hughes 8 (3)
Thomas 3 (3)
Martin 3 (2)
Undecided 35 (46)
More than half of GOP voters said they agreed with the tea party movement, including nearly 70 percent of those who describe themselves as very conservative. But that hasn’t translated into support for Hughes. The survey found Kirk being supported by 48 percent of Republicans who said they backed the tea party movement while Hughes got only 10 percent support.
While one-third of likely GOP primary voters said they mostly agree with Kirk on the issues, nearly a quarter of GOP voters said they believe he isn’t conservative enough — a percentage similar to six weeks ago.
Kirk’s opponents are still known by only half or less of primary voters. Voter opinions of any of his six opponents - good or bad - ranges from only 4% to 16%. That means only 4%-16% know enough about any of them to have an opinion. The level of undecided voters remains very high just two weeks before Election Day. Unlike the race for governor, none of his opponents have run or been elected to state office so unknown alternatives to Kirk leads to many who remain undecided – 35%.
With eight days left until the Feb. 2nd primary, real estate developer Patrick Hughes (R) has significantly increased his support in a new survey from his campaign - although he still trails GOP front-runner Rep. Mark Steven Kirk by a 20-point margin in the open-seat Illinois Senate race.
Hughes scored 22 percent with likely GOP voters in a survey sponsored by his own campaign, while Kirk scored 42 percent. Every other GOP candidate in the race had less than 5 percent support in the uninformed ballot poll, while 27 percent of survey respondents said they were undecided.
Hughes, who has already given upwards of $250,000 of his own funds to the race, is considered to be Kirk’s cheif primary competition, but has been badly trailing the five-term lawmaker in prior public polls.
The Jan. 21-22 Shamrock Polling survey took the opinions of 1,104 likely Republican voters.
I’ve never heard of Shamrock Polling, and a Google search comes up almost empty, except for that CQ story and one person who claims he received an e-mail from the company, which allegedly charges $500 a month for 1,000-person polls.
Comptroller and gubernatorial candidate Dan Hynes says he has no plans to pull a racially charged TV ad where the late Mayor Harold Washington is criticizing Governor Pat Quinn after serving as the city’s revenue director under the leadership of Washington.
Critics of the ad say it’s a desperate attempt on the part of Hynes’ campaign. Dan Hynes disagrees.
Comptroller Dan Hynes launched an ad last week showing the late Chicago Mayor Harold Washington trash-talking Pat Quinn.
“Pat Quinn is a totally and completely undisciplined individual,” Washington says in the 1987 interview.
Not surprisingly, the ad triggered a massive amount of spin control from the Quinn camp. For example, spokeswoman Elizabeth Austin said Washington was “spinning in his grave.”
But really, folks. Take a deep breath here. Did the dead ex-mayor really say anything we didn’t already know?
Last spring, Quinn sat next to House Speaker Michael Madigan in a House committee room and testified in favor of an ethics package that was awaiting final passage in the House. Three months later, after reform groups panned the legislation, Quinn reversed his early support of the measure and vetoed the bill. In 2006, while he was Rod Blagojevich’s lieutenant governor, Quinn sent a letter to former Illinois State Police Director Larry Trent, calling on Trent to lift a gag order the director had placed on his employees. Four years later, as governor, Quinn now supports a nearly identical gag order his own prison chief issued to employees of the Illinois Department of Corrections. Then there was Quinn’s 73-minute State of the State speech this month, described by many as “rambling.”
The question isn’t over Quinn’s consistency. The question is whether Hynes can beat a sitting governor Feb. 2 by using a dead guy to point out the obvious.
* The governor continues to ask African-American churches to lash back at Hynes. From a press release…
Standing up against the outdated politics of division, Governor Pat Quinn Sunday will bring a message of reconciliation and unity to African-American congregations throughout the Chicago area.
“We have had enough of the politics of division,” Governor Quinn said. “In these difficult times, when so many families are struggling to make ends meet, it’s more important than ever for all of us to work together to put Illinois back on track.
“We simply don’t have the time to revisit the past,” Governor Quinn added. “Over the past 25 years, we have succeeded in building a progressive coalition that is finally reforming Illinois government. Today, I believe that Democratic voters are focused on building a new and prosperous future, not in dwelling on the past. I believe we can move forward together to bring economic growth and honest government to Illinois.”
Quinn never became part of the Democratic inner power circle, despite years of holding statewide offices. We feel confident he would retain that independent streak if elected.
Proft offers many bold ideas. He not only wants to hold the line on taxes but cut them to encourage investment and job creation. He favors school choice for low- and moderate-income students in failing schools. He proposes statutory caps on state spending.
Proft has not previously held office, but he has helped run campaigns and is a keen observer of state government. His outsider perspective would serve him well as the governor in charge of change.
* More weekend coverage of this exploding controversy can be found here, here and here.
* From what I hear, Democratic US Senate candidate David Hoffman is surging in the polls. All those newspaper endorsements are surely contributing to that. And when I say “all,” I do mean “all.” He’s pretty much run the table. Whether it’s enough to win remains the big question, because he doesn’t appear to have closed the gap enough as of yet. We’ll see what the Tribune poll says. His upcoming ad buy won’t be as big as first claimed, so that works against him because the TV market is gonna be really crowded this coming week. Hoffman talked about his momentum, and the Massachusetts Senate race, Thursday night in Evanston. Watch…
* Illinois GOP Chairman Pat Brady was asked earlier this week about the “dump Mark Kirk movement” in Illinois and the “split” in the GOP over Kirk’s campaign.
“The ’split,’ I don’t really accept the premise,” Brady said. “The ‘dump Kirk’ movement is a fringe movement. There’s not one candidate that’s polled about five percent except Mark Kirk. So, if there’s a split, it’s certainly not strong enough to the people that are going to come out and vote. I mean, Mark Kirk has a substantial lead, and none of these guys have been polling above five percent.” Illinois Review posted the audio on YouTube…
The reaction was not pleasant with the Right, of course, so Chairman Brady has since issued a clarification of sorts…
“My comments were not directed at the Tea Party movement or any other conservative candidates in the U.S. Senate race. They were directed at one particular candidate, not [GOP U.S. Senate candidate]Patrick Hughes.
“I have been a conservative for over 30 years. I am pro=life, for limited government, pro-Second Amendment and have been consistent in my strong support of law enforcement.
“Any statement that I am opposed to conservative principles is completely false.”
Leading African-American Pastors Stand Up Against Divisive Campaign Ad
CHICAGO – A group of leading African-American pastors in Chicago will hold a news conference at 1 p.m. on Saturday at historic Quinn Chapel in the city’s Bronzeville neighborhood.
The religious leaders will express their outrage at a recent campaign ad that uses a video clip of Mayor Harold Washington to influence voters against Governor Pat Quinn.
The community is demanding that the ad be taken off the air, along with an apology to the African-American community.
As I wrote earlier, race is really the only avenue the Quinn campaign has to save itself from this TV ad. It is what it is, and they really have no choice. However, this would be a far more valid approach if Quinn hadn’t used Bobby Rush, who has fashioned himself as a more-than-willing race-baiter, particularly since his blatant “lynching” comments on the Roland Burris appointment.
The Quinn folks fervently claim that Hynes played the race card first by hypocritically using the late Harold Washington as a surrogate in order to hurt Quinn with black voters and depress black turnout. They have several valid points. But, again, this ad transcends the race issue because, as I’ve written before, the points Washington made about Quinn are so “today.” That’s why the Quinn push-back has to be so strong. Get people to forget about the competency issue and onto Chicago’s divisive racial history. The Chicago media usually loves a race battle, so coverage should be intense.
During Quinn’s speech to Operation PUSH this morning, the governor said “We will not let those who would divide go back to those ugly times.” You don’t need a code book to translate what he’s saying there. Have a look…
It is what it is. And it’s gonna get really ugly.
* Meanwhile, the Hynes campaign has a new Internet video about the controversy. Watch it…
Speaking to a predominantly African-American congregation at a South Side church [last night], Quinn recounted how he stood by Washington and worked to help get him elected. He also brought up the political history of how Hynes’ father, 19th Ward power broker Tom Hynes, opposed Washington, Chicago’s first black mayor.
“(Hynes) and his father in the 1980s were standing against Harold Washington and everything he tried to do bring our city together, bring our state together. I was on Harold Washington’s side on every single election Tom Hynes and his son Dan were against Harold Washington,” Quinn said. “They were part of the mass of resistance against Harold Washington, and I think that there’s a real choice for voters today not to go back to that, stand with me where I believe everyone’s in and nobody’s out.”
Quinn said the ad is reason for voters to shun Hynes in the Feb. 2 Democratic governor primary.
“Are we going to have 11 days from today a governor who brings our state together or are we going to go back to what happened before I came along with a governor who’s dividing people? I don’t think we want that,” Quinn said.
From a Quinn press release…
Responding to increasing community outrage over the Hynes campaign’s divisive television ads, Governor Pat Quinn will speak on Saturday at the Rainbow PUSH Coalition Saturday Forum, led by the Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr. They will be joined by U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., who has endorsed Governor Quinn in the Feb. 2 Democratic primary election.
Careful viewers will note, however, that race is not the theme of Hynes’ attack on Quinn. The theme is competence. And for all that, the ad may remind black voters of the unpleasant Hynes family legacy from the 1980s, but it will also remind black and white Democratic primary voters of their main doubt about Quinn — not his heart, his passion or his fundamental integrity, but his competence.
Never mind who ran against whom when. Voters are going to want to know this: Was Washington right in 1987 that Quinn was a goof-up who just wanted to agitate for his causes? And, either way, what has Quinn done in the interim to show that Washington judged him too hastily?
Did Hynes need to take that risk? Go for the game-changer that looks a bit like a Hail Mary pass? Earlier polls showed him trailing badly, but the new Tribune/WGN-TV poll released this weekend shows that, before the Washington commercial was released, the race had tightened to a near statistical deadlock.
“Careful” viewers won’t have to note anything. The “competence” point is as plain as day in that ad.
The Quinn people know that when you force voters to think too much about things - like how Hynes’ father ran against Harold Washington - you lose. So, they’ve resorted to a tactic which doesn’t require thinking because it can be so utterly reactionary: racial politics.
Keep in mind that the Tribune poll and other surveys have shown Quinn tanking in the black community, even before the Harold Washington ad. This is a high stakes game. The Hynes people believe they adequately tested this message before running the Washington ad. We’ll find out in a few days whether they tested it enough.
Expect a new Hynes ad soon, though. I’m hearing the new ad is Quinn - on video - gushing over Rod Blagojevich. The easily comprehended message is: Harold Washington didn’t like Quinn, but Quinn liked Rod.
* Tribune poll, with December results in parentheses…
Pat Quinn: 44 (49)
Dan Hynes: 40 (23)
No surprise, considering that Quinn’s own tracker had the race as a three-point game…
Among Democrats, Quinn’s better than 2-to-1 lead over Hynes in a Tribune survey six weeks ago has evaporated amid concerns about the unelected incumbent’s ability to handle the job. The poll of 601 likely Democratic voters showed Quinn with 44 percent and Hynes with 40 percent — within the survey’s 4 percentage point error margin. Thirteen percent of the voters were undecided.
A more recent poll taken by Alexi Giannoulias’ campaign has this race at 46-44, sources say.
According to the Trib poll, Quinn’s approval rating is 43 percent, while his disapproval is at 31 - far lower than the 60 percent claimed by a recent Dan Hynes poll. Two-thirds of Dem voters called Quinn’s early release program “wrong.” Trouble…
Mirroring the overall results, 44 percent of black voters in the survey favored Quinn and 40 percent backed Hynes. But only 36 percent of African-American voters said they approved of the job Quinn was doing as governor.
Keep in mind that this poll was taken before the Harold Washington ad went on the air. The trend is not the governor’s friend. And he’s below 50, where no incumbent wants to be.
* On to the Republicans…
* Andy McKenna 19 (12)
* Jim Ryan 18 (26)
* Kirk Dillard 14 (9)
* Bill Brady 9 (10)
More…
McKenna’s ad blitz helped him achieve support from 19 percent of Republican voters compared to 18 percent for Elmhurst’s Ryan and 14 percent for Dillard, of Hinsdale.
Another 9 percent backed state Sen. Bill Brady of Bloomington, while Hinsdale transparency advocate Adam Andrzejewski had 7 percent and Chicago political pundit Dan Proft had 6 percent. Another 17 percent were undecided in the survey of 592 likely Republican primary voters. […]
McKenna and Ryan are strongest in Chicago and the suburbs, where each has support from more than one in five voters surveyed. Dillard has the backing of 22 percent of downstate voters, but lags in his home base.
Dillard’s name ID went from about half in the last Tribune poll to 81 percent in this one.
