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SurveyUSA: 45-37-14

Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

More numbers, this time it’s SurveyUSA. As I’ve been trying to point out lately, it’s almost all about Whitney’s final tally.

Remember when reading this poll that the sample size is very small, 434 likely voters, which means the survey has a margin of error of ±4.8%. They interviewed 1,000 Illinois adults, 885 were registered to vote and less than half of those were deemed to be “likely voters.” If you look at a poll the firm did just a couple of weeks ago, they interviewed 1,000, found 888 registered voters and judged 578 to be likely voters. Whether that means voter turnout is depressed or not, I don’t know. I do know that this current sample size is a bit too small. I also don’t like the fact that they make such bold predictions based on such small sample sizes. Still, here it is…

In an election for Governor of Illinois today, 11/2/06, 5 days to the vote, Democrat incumbent Rod Blagojevich is re-elected, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSDK-TV St. Louis.

But, Blagojevich’s margin of victory could be the 8 points that SurveyUSA reports here, or could be larger, depending on other factors. First among them: support for Green Party Candidate Rich Whitney, who receives 14% of the likely vote in today’s SurveyUSA’s poll. If Whitney’s support is more of a protest by voters over how unhappy they are with having to choose between Blagojevich and Topinka, as opposed to genuine enthusiasm for Whitney and the Green Party, then some of Whitney’s support may dry up before Election Day, and that support could go elsewhere, or stay home. Already, Whitney’s support among Independent voters is down from 29% in a SurveyUSA KSDK-TV poll on 10/23 to 21% today. Next: some, but not all, parts of Illinois have hotly contested races for the U.S. House of Representatives. In those Congressional Districts, turnout will be higher than it will be in non-competitive U.S. House districts in Illinois.

As SurveyUSA adjusts its turnout model to include more Likely Voters in its respondent pool, Blagojevich’s margin of victory increases, in some scenarios by quite a bit. There is no SurveyUSA scenario in which Topinka wins. In the data SurveyUSA reports here, Blagojevich gets 45%, not materially different than his support in two previous SurveyUSA polls. Topinka today is at 37%. In two previous SurveyUSA polls she had been at 39% and 34%. SurveyUSA expects Blagojevich to finish in the mid 40s, Topinka to finish in the mid 30s. SurveyUSA does not see Blagojevich breaking 50% unless the Green vote disintegrates.

I can’t see Blagojevich getting to 50 percent with any scenario, even if the Green Party support falls apart. I think they’re being a bit too optimistic here. The SurveyUSA prediction of about 45-35 leaves out the implied Whitney number: 20 percent. That seems pretty darned high.

Check the Crosstabs here (remembering that the MoE will be gigantic), look at how the numbers are shaping up with the other polls, then discuss below.

* 45-37-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 30 Nov. 1 (434 LV)
* 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31 (625 LV)
* 44-29-13 - Tribune, Oct. 27-29 (600 LV)
* 47-38-11 - Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26 (800 LV)
* 44-34-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 20-22 (578 LV)
* 48-32-12 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22 (603 LV)
* 44-36-9 - Rasmussen, Oct. 15 (500 LV)
* 39-30-9 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15 (600 RV)

This graph from Pollster.com shows trendlines since October 15.

Meanwhile, this photo of a sign on Bernardi’s Restaurant in Washington, IL was taken by a Peoria-area pal. Get Nieuked is now a movement…

We’re expecting some new ads very soon.

  19 Comments      


Latest state treasurer TV ads - both negative

Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

The two candidates for state treasurer have been arguing back and forth over negative ads. Christine Radogno got the ball rollling with this spot, which, for the first time ever, uses the words of a state party chairman of the opposing party to slam an opponent…

And then Alexi Giannoulias came right back at her with this ad, which Radogno has demanded that he pull off the air.

Meanwhile, Giannoulias told the Southern Illinoisan that he’s “sick” of the negative ads.

“We’re sick of attack ads,” Giannoulias said. “Let’s talk about ideas. People need solutions, and I can tell you that talking about the things my opponent or other people before me have done is not providing a solu-tion.”

Not included in the article was a single mention of Giannoulias’ own negative ad.

  8 Comments      


Fun with phones

Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Clever. A dirty trick that is disguised as simply supplying information for voters.

In the contentious battle over congressional seats in the west and northwest suburbs, the two Democratic candidates were crying foul over the National Republican Congressional Committee’s use of automated telephone messages. The messages begin by claiming to provide information about Tammy Duckworth and Melissa Bean, but end up attacking their stances on various issues

I asked the Duckworth campaign about this after a comment about the goings-on appeared here at the blog.

Another dirty little trick they’re using is right out of Rove’s playbook from the RNC in DC is robocalling with a recorded message that starts out, “I have some important information for you about Tammy Duckworth”.

Most people hang up on robocalls and that intro is made to sound like a Duckworth call. If they listen to the full message they get an earful of Republican attacks on Duckworth. If they don’t they are redialed, sometimes immediately but always multiple times a day. One guy said he got 14 of these calls in one day.

This is an attempt to block Duckworth’s phonebanking advantage. Numerous times voters have screamed in my ear “Quit calling me!”.

Listen to the robocall by clicking here. [wav file]

Meanwhile, Laura Bush was in town today for Peter Roskam and David McSweeney.

First Lady Laura Bush urged suburban Republicans today to turn out the vote for GOP candidates in two of the nation’s hardest fought congressional districts, and used a Schaumburg event to put in a pitch for Judy Baar Topinka’s run for governor.

Appearing at a rally on behalf of Peter Roskam, the 6th Congressional District Republican candidate, and David McSweeney, the 8th Congressional District GOP contender, she said victories by the two men are key to continuing the war against terrorism abroad.

“Peter Roskam and David McSweeney stand with our troops. They understand this election is critical,” she said to a crowd of about 1,000 at the Renaissance Convention Center. Acknowledging that the Iraq War has tested the public’s emotions, she said, “We must have the debate at home in a way that does not jeopardize our troops.”

Also, Roskam just sent out a release promising a “Late breaking special campaign announcement” tomorrow morning.

  22 Comments      


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Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Yet another coinkydink?

Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Dan Curry is a blogger, but he also works for the Topinka-Birkett campaign. With that in mind, have a look at his latest entry.

Does the Rod Blagojevich family regard state government as its personal ATM? […]

What about Rod’s brother, Robert Blagojevich?

Once Rod became governor, Robert’s employer, Fifth Third Bank, got a turbo boost in state business.

One of the biggest boons was a no-bid exclusive contract to provide ATM services at the newly redesigned tollway oases. That same pile of no-bid oases contracts already has been subpoenaed by the feds because of ties to Blagojevich’s top fundraisers Tony Rezko and Chris Kelly through companies such as Subway and Panda Express. Another contract in that pile went to the official pizza of the NY Yankees, Famous Famiglia, a company with a corporate connection to convicted felon Eddie DeBartolo Jr. ABC 7’s Chuck Goudie did a three-part series on the Famous Famiglia contract in early 2005.

Although I don’t have the paperwork on it, the State Board of Investments also gave Fifth Third its first ever investment contract right about the same time Robert Blagojevich reportedly was leaving the company, in late 2003 or early 2004.

And guess who brought that contract to the State Board of Investments? A company connected to Nick Hurtgen. Go read the whole thing.

  53 Comments      


Question of the day

Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Will people cast a protest vote for Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, who most likely can’t win, or will they vote for one of the two major party candidates?

Most importantly, what will be Whitney’s final percent?

  70 Comments      


Neanderthal comment won’t die

Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

The governor’s over the top “defense” of his wife’s business dealings with people connected to state government won’t go away. The guv defended her by attacking critics as “Neanderthals.” The result is the governor’s campaign took a story buried on the same Friday that Stu Levine pled guilty and kept it alive for almost a week by injecting a bogus claim of sexism into the equation.

Topinka added more fuel to the fire yesterday.

Republican governor candidate Judy Baar Topinka on Wednesday proposed restricting outside income for the families of statewide elected officials, citing the real-estate business of First Lady Patricia Blagojevich.

Topinka’s proposal was in response to a recent Tribune report that found Patricia Blagojevich received $113,000 in real estate commissions on behalf of a longtime no-bid state contractor whose husband also had bank regulatory issues pending before the state. The four commissions were the only ones she made so far this year. […]

Kent Redfield, a professor of political science at the University of Illinois at Springfield, said it had nothing to do with sexism, but with the appearance of a conflict of interest.

That’s the very same appearance of conflict that all state employees are warned to avoid. It’s the same conflict that all attorneys, reporters and just about anyone with any common sense avoids. And since Mrs. Blagojevich only did the one deal this year, it shouldn’t be asking too much of her to check to see if there were any potential conflicts of interest.

This is the old way of doing business. The very old way.

Here’s more from a Southern Illinoisan columnist (I assume it’s Jim Muir, but I didn’t see a name listed).

When questioned by the media about those obvious connections, the governor responded in a way that shows exactly how the political game in Illinois is played these days. Blagojevich said that anybody who questions or suggests that his wife landed the deal because he is governor is a “Neanderthal.”

In other words, politicians these days don’t have to answer questions about things like people who are under state contract doing business with family members of elected officials. They simply discredit the person asking the questions and label them as a “Neanderthal.”

I suppose that would mean that any person asking questions about $1,500 birthday gifts, “endemic hiring fraud,” federal investigations into hiring and contract irregularities at multiple state agencies, 60-year-old interns who were given preference over military veterans and that growing list of indictments would also have to be labeled a “Neanderthal.”

Meanwhile, the Tribune editorial board is sick of the governor’s attacks on Topinka.

It’s not fair, though, to portray Topinka the way Blagojevich has–as a loathsome consort of criminals. Blagojevich has spent millions of dollars crafting his phony image of Topinka as the kind of little-bit-nutty woman that her own son should be embarrassed to love. […]

If this gutter strategy pays off, get used to it.

The governor, incidentally, says his vile attack ads merely differentiate him from Topinka.

How convenient that Blagojevich is racing to his own defense. He won’t have to stand in line.

Topinka struck back against some of the attacks yesterday. NBC5:

Republican candidate for governor Judy Baar Topinka began her day Wednesday hopping mad, her voice shaking as she blasted Gov. Rod Blagojevich for an ad taking her to task for her history with veterans.

“He has yet to show up with veterans groups and then he has the gall to sit there and take me on, when my kid’s been to Afghanistan and back,” she said.

A Lee Newspapers article, not a column, compared the governor to George Ryan.

Gov. Rod Blagojevich appears to have ripped a page from his predecessor’s playbook as he seeks to seal up support for a second term.

Over the final two months of the campaign season, the Chicago Democrat has crisscrossed Illinois distributing state dollars for everything from a wind farm in central Illinois to a river research facility near Alton.

An informal tally of the dollars he’s handed out indicates Blagojevich has spread an estimated $45 million around the state through a series of high-profile announcements — just in time for voters to head to the polls.

The spending on new snowmobile trails and expanded Amtrak service is similar to what convicted former Gov. George Ryan did during his tenure as chief executive, which Blagojevich roundly criticized when he ran for governor in 2002.

Blagojevich campaign spokeswoman Sheila Nix said the governor’s announcements are not the same as Ryan’s.

And Kristen McQueary wonders what’s up with the female vote?

Alas, impossible-to-please women voters are to blame for forcing female politicians to downplay their feminine attributes, even though we gossip about them anyway.

  34 Comments      


Copley treasurer: 39-33-7, 21 percent undecided

Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

The new Copley poll has Alexi Giannoulias leading Christine Radogno by just six points, 39-33, with 7 percent for the Green Party candidate and a whopping 21 percent still undecided.

“All the polls we’ve seen have shown (Giannoulias) with a strong lead. Our internal polls had Alexi up by 12 points,” said Giannoulias spokesman Scott Burnham, adding that other recent surveys have shown the margin as high as 17.

Here are the most recent polls in the race, including the latest Copley poll:

* 39-33-7 - Copley, Oct. 30-31
* 40-23-5 - Tribune, Oct.30-31
* 44-37-1 Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26
* 43-34-6 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22
* 33-29 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15
* 38-26 - Copley, Sept. 19-21

There really isn’t much else in the story except the numbers in the other down-ballot races:

Incumbent Secretary of State Jesse White holds a 41-point lead over his GOP challenger, state Sen. Dan Rutherford of Chenoa. The poll showed White with 65 percent of the prospective vote, Rutherford with 24 percent and Green Party candidate Karen Young Peterson at 3 percent.

Attorney General Lisa Madigan would collect 64 percent of the vote for re-election, the poll shows, compared with 22 percent for the GOP candidate, Tazewell County State’s Attorney Stewart Umholtz, and 4 percent for David Black of the Green Party.

Comptroller Dan Hynes leads Republican state Sen. Carole Pankau of Itasca by 23 points, according to the poll, 49 percent to 26 percent.

Meanwhile, the Sun-Times has a story on the battle entitled “Youth seems to be trumping experience in treasurer race” and the AP has a piece on Radogno’s objection to Giannoulias’ latest campaign ad.

State treasurer candidate Christine Radogno accused her opponent of running a “desperate” campaign ad that distorts the truth, but Democrat Alexi Giannoulias stood by the television commercial Wednesday.

The ad claims Radogno, a Republican state senator, voted to let utility and telephone companies raise rates. It cites as its source an Oct. 23 Chicago Sun-Times story.

But Radogno’s name appears nowhere in the article. […]

“The citation doesn’t say she voted for the raise,” said campaign spokesman Scott Burnham. “It refers to the article that says as a result of the legislature’s actions, the utility giants had the authority to increase rates.”

  15 Comments      


Morning shorts

Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Daily Herald: Sort through the charges and counter-charges, however, and what emerges is that none of the four congressional candidates is putting forth a plan that would keep Social Security from going bankrupt after Baby Boomers retire and there aren’t enough workers left to keep the program afloat.

* Oy: Voting equipment glitches lingering

* And another oy: Early voters finding machines aren’t without faults

* Brown: Obama’s dealings with Rezko buy a parcel of questions

* Sneed has a bit about those state mailers to families of “newborns” from the governor

* St. Amand: “I racked my brain to come up with Dan Hynes as the Democrat and Carole Pankau as the Republican in the comptroller’s race. I knew Alexi Giannoulias was the Democrat running for treasurer, but I couldn’t spell his name. And I drew a blank on Christine Radogno as the Republican candidate.”

* Bernie: GOP worried about ‘throwaway’ votes for Whitney

* Tridgell: They can’t drive [on Tollway] much faster than 55

* Privatized lottery: The ticket to ride?

* Web tactic on foe’s behalf upsets appellate court candidate

* Parties thinking small to get votes - Microtargeting helps find sympathetic ears

* Tribune: The two candidates running to replace retiring Cook County Sheriff Michael Sheahan agree the department must be modernized and should embrace a more effective use of technology. Beyond that, there is little common ground linking Democrat Tom Dart and Republican Peter Garza.

  4 Comments      


Copley guv: 44-40-7

Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Copley’s complete poll story doesn’t tell us much. Blagojevich’s lead, according to the poll, has shrunk to just 4 percent, 44-40-7 with 9 percent still undecided. The statewide poll of 625 likely voters was conducted Monday and Tuesday and has a margin of error of 4 points.

“These poll results are vastly different from three public polls released this week … and our own internal polling that shows us with leads of as much as 16 points,” [Blagojevich spokesperson Sheila] Nix said in a statement.

If they’re up by 16, why would they be running such hard negative ads? Also, here is how Copley compares to the last several polls:

* 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31
* 44-29-13 - Tribune, Oct. 27-29
* 47-38-11 - Post-Dispatch, Oct. 23-26
* 44-34-14 - SurveyUSA, Oct. 20-22
* 48-32-12 - Daily Herald/ABC7, Oct. 16-22
* 44-36-9 - Rasmussen, Oct. 15
* 39-30-9 - Glengariff Group, Oct. 13-15

Among independents who have made up their minds, 41 percent prefer Topinka, 37 percent Blagojevich and 12 percent Whitney.

No mention of who the all-important undecided voters are, or how they’ve broken since the last Copley poll, rendering this story not nearly as useful as it could be. Still, knowing the way independents are breaking is helpful. It would be nice to know if she’s doing any better with her own base of Republicans and how she’s doing with Democrats (Republicans cannot win Illinois without taking a chunk of the Democratic vote.)

Voters also said the Illinois economy is in the doldrums, with 33 percent saying the economy is on the right track and 48 percent saying it is not. Less than half of those identifying themselves as Democrats (46 percent) said the economy is on the right track.

That’s not great news for the governor, who has been proclaiming the robustness of the state’s economy. If undecideds break on that pocket-book issue alone, the race will tighten.

Besides this, there is the usual stuff about how both major candidates are unpopular and how the Rezko/Levine scandals make voters somewhat less likely to support Blagojevich (28 percent) and Topinka (11 percent), how the public is split on whether Blagojevich has conducted himself ethically while in office (41 yes, 43 no) and how his job performance rating is in the tank, with 66 percent rating it fair or poor.

Undecideds are the key, of course. This late in the game it’s good to know whether they even intend to vote and if they do vote who they are and which way they might break. None of these questions were answered by Copley’s poll - or at least they weren’t included in this story. Maybe there will be more detail later today or tomorrow. Let’s hope so.

SurveyUSA is said to be in the field, so we should have more numbers soon. Unlike Copley (so far, at least) SurveyUSA publishes its crosstabs.

The last Copley poll, released in late September, had the race at 47-37-4, with 12 percent undecided.

  26 Comments      


The home stretch

Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Site traffic is up well over 50 percent in the past two months. The election is bringing a lot of new people to the blog and with it some new tensions in the comments section.

For you newbies, please observe a few simple rules. And for those of you who have been around awhile, give yourself a refresher by reading what’s posted below.

* Bizarre conspiracy theories like one posted today - Copley fabricated a poll that was favorable to a Republican in order to help the Democrats - are seriously frowned upon. Perhaps there are some of you reading this now who don’t think this theory was all that bizarre. My advice to those people is to go somewhere else. In the past, you would have been publicly derided for your goofiness, but since the theorists are multiplying, I’m just gonna delete your posts without argument and put you into comment moderation (all your comments will then be held for approval by me), and perhaps banish you forever.

* “Does not” “Does too” “Does not” “Does too” flame wars are boring and stupid. I know that elections can get the blood boiling, but please refrain from wasting everyone’s time with such nonsense. Deletions are certain, moderation is probable, banishment is possible if you persist in being a jerk.

* Try to say something original, not regurgitate something you saw somebody say on another blog. Derision will surely follow. Eventual moderation is likely.

* Profanity in any form is not allowed. Using strategically placed symbols like @ or # or $ won’t work, either. 100 percent deletion, very likely permanent moderation, possibility of perpetual banishment.

* Posting a bumper sticker slogan like “Vote Peraica” as your only comment is incredibly goofy. Deletion is probable. Repeat violations will result in moderation. Banishment for worst offenders.

* Rumors or even “facts” that you fervently believe to be true because you heard it from someone you consider to be a reliable source should be e-mailed to reporters or the feds, not posted here. Immediate deletion, permanent moderation, likely banishment.

* Let’s all try to be somewhat nice to each other, despite our disagreements. Elections end, politicians come and go, hot button issues ebb and flow, but we’ll always be here… or something like that.

Thanks much.

- Rich

  20 Comments      


Late TV ads

Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Melissa Bean’s positive closer:

Peter Roskam attacks Tammy Duckworth on Social Security:

DCCC closer for Duckworth:

  17 Comments      


New poll has “dead heat” in guv’s race

Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Copley poll: 44-40-7

Sorry. I was out of the office and couldn’t link to the story.

9 percent remain undecided.

The gap between Blagojevich and Topinka is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points. Other recent polls have indicated a much wider margin in favor of Blagojevich.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research conducted the poll of 625 likely voters Monday and Tuesday, Oct. 30-31.

The poll also shows that large numbers of votes still have unfavorable opinions of both Topinka and Blagojevich, but recent stories about federal investigations into corruption in state government are taking a toll on Blagojevich’s support.

These are the newest numbers we have. The Tribune poll (44-29-13) was taken Oct. 27-29. The Daily Herald poll (48-32-12) was taken Oct. 16-22.

We can pretty much bet that Blagojevich is stalled in the mid-40s, where he’s been for months. The real question has been for weeks whether voters would actually vote for a third party candidate or whether they were just temporarily parked there instead of sitting in the undecided column.

Also, there are still quite a few undecideds in this poll. Hopefully, Copley will tell us who those people are - since that would seem to be the most important part of this story.

[Let’s close comments on this. Go here for more discussion on Copley’s poll.]

  125 Comments      


Neanderthal, continued…

Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

A couple of stories about the governor’s wife doing business with a state contractor. This one was just posted:

Republican candidate for governor Judy Baar Topinka says she wants to restrict money that immediate family members of the governor and other constitutional officers can earn.

Topinka said at a press conference today in Chicago that she would propose prohibiting outside income to family members from lobbyists and state contractors.

Her proposal comes amid news reports that Governor Rod Blagojevich’s wife Patti, a real estate broker, has business dealings with people who have a financial stake in the administration’s actions.

And this one ran in the morning, but I forgot to post it.

Republican Judy Baar Topinka on Tuesday rejected Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s complaint that coverage of his wife’s business was sexist, suggesting his comment was meant to divert attention from serious ethics questions.

“Being female, I know what is sexism. It’s not sexism at all. It’s arrogance of power, not wishing to answer a question,” Topinka said in a telephone interview. “It really is a dumb comment — and probably diversionary on top of it.” […]

Blagojevich refused Tuesday to discuss his previous comments about a “Neanderthal and sexist” news story on his wife’s real estate dealings with a couple who have a financial stake in his administration’s decisions. […]

At a news conference to announce his endorsement by a gun-control group, Blagojevich said he would let others decide whether the coverage was unfair and he praised his wife as both a mother and a business owner.

A Chicago newspaper reported last week that Patricia Blagojevich made $113,700 — her only commissions this year — from a couple with a stake in the Blagojevich administration’s actions. Anita Mahajan has a no-bid state contract that began before Blagojevich took office. Amrish Mahajan runs a bank with requests pending before state regulators.

  17 Comments      


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Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Question of the day

Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Should campaign contributions be capped in Illinois?

Comments are a bit short, so let me add this…

If so, at what levels? If not, why?

  36 Comments      


AP fact checks guv

Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

The AP points out a major flaw in the governor’s self defense.

When asked whether [Tony Rezko and Stu Levine’s] conduct raises questions about his judgment, Blagojevich answered it shows the need for strong systems to root out corruption.

Blagojevich says a lot of the things Levine pleaded guilty to occurred before his administration had an inspector general. He says he believes the system is much better today.

However, Blagojevich first appointed an inspector general for his office in April 2003. Based on his guilty plea, Levine’s crimes continued until at least May 2004.
There is no indication Blagojevich’s inspector was involved in discovering the offenses that are part of a federal corruption probe.

This story shows once again that every word he says has to be checked and double-checked. He will say anything. That attribute makes him an incredibly good campaigner, as long as his opponent doesn’t have the cash to respond, but it doesn’t exactly make him a fount of reliable information.

As I wrote in this morning’s Capitol Fax, the “say anything” campaign is epitomized in this radio ad [wav file], which accuses her of all sorts of nasty things, including how she “runs down those who honor our veterans” and claiming she wants to raise taxes.

And here’s another one just like it.

  20 Comments      


Negativity

Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

The governor’s race takes another nasty turn.

…Gov. Rod Blagojevich said his barrage of attack TV ads against Republican Judy Baar Topinka is only an effort to show voters how the two candidates differ on the issues. But Blagojevich’s campaign on Tuesday also used claims made in a Downstate gun-rights newsletter to claim Topinka supports allowing citizens to carry concealed firearms.

In a recent issue of the Gun News, a group member reported that Topinka had said in a conversation that she would sign a concealed-carry bill “as soon as the legislature could get it to her desk.”

Campaigning in the southwest suburbs, Topinka said she was opposed to so-called concealed-carry laws and was shocked by the governor’s allegation. But when asked if she would veto a concealed-carry bill if it passed the legislature, she said she “probably would, yes.”

Later, she said, she was adamantly opposed to concealed-carry laws

“I don’t support concealed-carry. Period,” she said.

It’s difficult to defend yourself against a well-funded opponent who will literally say anything to win.

Meanwhile, Christine Radogno’s campaign demanded that Alexi Giannoulias pull a TV ad off the air. From a press release:

State Sen. Christine Radogno, Republican nominee for Illinois treasurer, today called television ads run by her Democratic opponent Alexi Giannoulias false distortions designed to deflect attention from his refusal to explain loans his bank made to crime figures and asked that he provide proof of his sources or remove his ad from the airwaves.

In a negative ad released yesterday by the Giannoulias campaign, it claims Radogno voted to raise telecom and utility rates by 22 percent and cites a Chicago Sun Times story from Oct. 23. A search on the Sun-Times website found no stories with the words Radogno and utility rates. Nowhere in the only news story on October 23rd that discusses utilities does Radogno’s name appear nor does the story mention a vote by the General Assembly, said Radogno.

“This is simply a desperate distortion by Alexi Giannoulias,” said Radogno. “He is again attempting to deflect attention from the fact that he has refused to answer questions about his involvement in loans he and his family’s bank made to organized crime figures. It’s no coincidence that he chose to run this negative ad at the same time new polls show this race is a dead heat.”

Maybe so, but a whole lot of Democratic legislators are being whacked but good by their Republican opponents this fall for taking campaign contributions from utilities and for voting for the 1997 electric dereg bill - the basis for the slam against Radogno. I didn’t see Radogno standing up for them. While it may be an unfair hit, it’s been a common refrain this year.

  30 Comments      


Turnout myths

Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

The focus in the media for the next week will be largely on voter turnout. But how accurate will the reporting be? This excellent piece has been making the rounds of the blogs all week, but I keep forgetting to post it. The 5 myths of voter turnout, by Michael McDonald, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution.

1) Thanks to increasing voter apathy, turnout keeps dwindling.

This is the mother of all turnout myths. There may be plenty of apathetic voters, but the idea that ever fewer Americans are showing up at the polls should be put to rest. What’s really happening is that the number of people not eligible to vote is rising — making it seem as though turnout is dropping. […]

3) Negative ads turn off voters and reduce turnout.

Don’t be so sure. The case on this one is still open. Negative TV advertising increased in the mid-1980s, but turnout hasn’t gone down correspondingly. The negative Swift boat campaign against Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., apparently did little to depress turnout in the 2004 presidential race.

Some academic studies have found that negative advertising increases turnout. And that’s not so surprising: A particularly nasty ad grabs people’s attention and gets them talking. People participate when they’re interested.

The danger of going negative is that voters may perceive the attacks as unfair. So campaigns tend to stick to “contrast ads,” in which candidates contrast their records with those of their opponents. When people see stark differences between candidates, they’re more likely to vote.

Go read the whole thing, especially if you’re an editorial writer, reporter, columnist or pundit.

Meanwhile, the Sun-Times has the latest on early voting.

Though most votes will be cast next Tuesday, almost 40,000 city and suburban voters have taken advantage of early voting, which ends Thursday. More than 5,000 voters filled out ballots Tuesday, and election officials expect even more to vote today and Thursday at election offices, village halls and libraries.

  5 Comments      


Poll has statewide incumbents with huge leads, Day backs poll of 154 people

Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Remember, these Richard Day poll numbers are pretty old, but I doubt it will make much difference in the blow-out down-ballot races. However, Day’s ancient numbers may very well be a lot different now in the still somewhat volatile treasurer’s race.

* SoS & Treasurer:

In the race for secretary of state, incumbent Democrat Jesse white has a commanding lead. 65 percent of likely voters polled support White. He’s well ahead of Republican Dan Rutherford who has 24 percent. Green party candidate Karen Peterson picked up 6 percent. 5 percent of voters surveyed are still undecided. […]

Democrat Alexi Giannoulias is leading, but there are still a lot of voters that have to make up their minds. Giannoulias leads Christine Radogno by 9 points, 43-to-34. Green party candidate Dan Rodriguez Schlorff got 6 percent. 18 percent remain undecided.

* Attorney General & Comptroller:

…Democrat Lisa Madigan gets 68 percent of the vote, followed by Republican Stewart Umholtz with 22 percent. Green party candidate David Black Is at 3 percent and 7 percent still undecided. […]

Incumbent Democrat Daniel Hynes received 59 percent, followed by Carole Pankau with 21 percent. Green party candidate Alicia Snyder was at 6 percent. Undecided– 14 percent.

* And pollster Richard Day sums it up for the Daily Herald.

“It looks like it could be a sweep,” said Richard Day, whose Evanston-based firm conducted the poll. “There’s no one to pull up the bottom of the ticket (for Republicans).”

That’s a reference to Judy Baar Topinka, who leads the GOP ticket this fall but whom the poll showed has had a tough time generating enthusiasm for her campaign against scandal-battered Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich.

The statewide survey of 603 likely voters was taken Oct. 16-22 and has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points. […]

With the poll showing wide Democratic margins, voters could be getting ready Nov. 7 to give one party control of all statewide offices, reminiscent of 1994, when then-Gov. Jim Edgar led a Republican sweep. In 2002, voters gave Democrats control of the General Assembly, governor’s mansion, Illinois Supreme Court and all statewide offices, except for treasurer.

* Meanwhile, the Daily Herald tries to explain why its Cook County Board President poll was so different from the Tribune’s poll.

* And if you think Richard Day and the media outlets should be ashamed of himself for polling only 300 Cook County residents over several days and then sitting on the results for 8 days, check this out:

Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley appears to be politically weathering last summer’s high-profile city hall hiring fraud convictions as he looks toward re-election, a Daily Herald/ABC 7 Chicago poll shows.

Daley led his most prominent potential challenger, Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr., by a better than 2-to-1 margin, 65 percent to 24 percent, according to the early survey. […]

The survey of 154 likely voters was taken Oct. 16 to 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 8 percentage points.

Unreal.

By the way, Day used his rating method to guage voter interest in several issues.

The bitter political atmosphere is reflected in poll results that had voters say their top reason for supporting both Blagojevich and Topinka in the governor’s race, as well as Republican David McSweeney against Democratic U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean in the 8th District contest, is they disliked the opponents. Additionally, Democratic Cook County Board president hopeful Todd Stroger was viewed negatively by 53 percent of those surveyed.

Voters rated “promoting ethics and honesty in government” as their top concern in the statewide survey, giving it an 8.9 on the 1-10 scale. Job creation placed second at 8.5, crime concerns came in third at 8.4, increasing school funding was fourth at 8.2, and state budget problems fifth at 8.1.

Illegal immigration scored only a 6.8 — not as strong as one might expect, given the Republican focus on the issue this year, Day said.

In the 6th Congressional District race, immigration was cited by 9 percent of those polled as their primary reason for supporting Republican Peter Roskam, who has attacked Democrat Tammy Duckworth for being too soft on the issue. And in the 8th District race, only 2 percent listed immigration as their biggest reason for backing McSweeney over Bean.

Just because a political party focuses on an issue like immigration doesn’t mean voters will necessarily care all that much.

  8 Comments      


Congressional roundup

Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The national Dems upgraded Seals a few days back, but the Sun-Times has more detail about what they’re up to.

Democrat Dan Seals is finally getting the attention of the national Democrats in his drive to defeat Rep. Mark Kirk in a 10th District congressional race that is getting closer than expected.

The Democratic House political operation, after declining to initially spend any money on Seals in favor of better prospects, is paying for a series of direct-mail pieces in the closing week of the campaign after polls indicated Seals may be within striking distance of Kirk.

One small indication of interest in the Kirk-Seals contest: early voting in the village of Northbrook, which has the highest early turnout of any suburban municipality in Cook County, according to Cook County Clerk David Orr.

* Animal Farm adds this:

For a guy who clamored for more debates against Republican Congressman Mark Kirk, Democrat Dan Seals sure treats his rare chances to debate Kirk funnily.

At the last minute, Seals pulled out of today’s debate in Waukegan. That’s the kind of behavior usually reserved for incumbents. True, it was a private event, but the public would have learned about the contrasting positions of Kirk and Seals through the newspaper reporting on the event. Seals did, however, have the time to stage a downtown news conference to try to keep alive an unflattering story about a Kirk staffer that’s now a week old.

‘The Tribune has the money roundup in the two big congressional races.

The Republican and Democratic national congressional committees have already poured more than $7 million into TV ads, mailings and phone calls in Illinois’ two hotly contested suburban contests, Federal Election Commission reports show, and millions more are expected to be spent in the hours before next week’s balloting. […]

In the 6th District contest, where veteran Republican Rep. Henry Hyde is retiring, the GOP committee has spent about $2.3 million while the Democratic committee has spent $1.7 million. In the 8th District, Democrats have spent $723,000 to help Bean defend the seat she won two years ago against longtime Republican Rep. Phil Crane.

Two years ago, the Republican committee spent $1.2 million on Crane’s behalf while the Democratic committee spent $880,000 to help Bean.

Bean received substantially less help from her party than her GOP counterpart because she is an incumbent. But the Democratic committee is expected to spend about $1 million more in the 8th District by Election Day as well as an additional $1 million in the 6th District, party sources said.

And the Daily Herald has a piece on worries about the third party candidate in Bean’s district.

Apparently worried that he could end up playing the spoiler in next Tuesday’s election, Democrats are telling voters in the suburban 8th Congressional District not to “throw away” their vote on the race’s third-party candidate.

A new campaign ad mailed on behalf of Congresswoman Melissa Bean, a Barrington Democrat, warns that casting an anti-war protest vote for peace activist Bill Scheurer could hurt Bean and derail Democrats’ attempt to win control of Congress.

“George W. Bush wants you to waste your vote,” reads the ad, which was paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and sent to Democrats.

It also claims Scheurer was “propped up” by Bean’s Republican challenger, Barrington Hills investment banker David McSweeney.

More here.

  10 Comments      


Morning shorts

Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Southtown: Todd Stroger’s campaign is counting on a last-minute push from Chicago’s rock star of politics, Barack Obama, to put Stroger over the top in what still appears to be a tight race for Cook County Board president.

* Rezko owns vacant lot next to Obama’s home

* Sneed: Hmmm: Sneed hears rumbles a mink coat reportedly belonging to Michelle Obama, wife of Sen. Barack Obama, may have gone missing following the Rev. Jesse Jackson’s Saturday birthday bash at the South Shore Cultural Center.

* Lieutenant governor candidates spar over hiring investigation [Audio clips at site]

* Top donors as of late Monday night.

* Newspaper’s practices criticized during libel trial - Attorneys for chief justice say paper did not ensure columnist”s information was true

* Illinois Supreme Court justices testify in libel case

* Gubernatorial Wives’ Work Ethics–Now & Then

* Officials announce reforms at Cook County juvenile center

* Sun-Times: Politics is a dirty tricks business but when it comes to Halloween, the two gubernatorial candidates offered up only treats Tuesday night.

* Sun-Times: Mayor Daley has purchased $80,000 in radio time over the next six days to urge Chicago voters — with the help of his running mate, state Sen. Miguel del Valle (D-Chicago), — to support advisory referendums on Tuesday’s ballot.

* Richards: Don’t let upcoming election spook you

  29 Comments      


He belongs to everyone, now *** Updated x1 ***

Tuesday, Oct 31, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Our old buddy Tim Nieukirk was interviewed by CBS2 today. Click the pic for the report.

Meanwhile, Nieukirk’s recently energized campaign has posted two new videos.

* “Your baby tastes horrible”

* The Man, The Myth, The Legend:

Join hands, y’all, let’s all Get Nieuked.

See all of Nieukirk’s “campaign ads” here. His MySpace page is here. And you can buy Get Nieuked gear here.

The nets or CNN need to step in and take this thing to the next level.

*** UPDATE *** Well, that was fast. From comments: “Brit Hume just ran the clip ‘in bed with yer sister’ on FOX news.”

The perfect fit here would be The Daily Show.

  19 Comments      


RR-Star goes Green

Tuesday, Oct 31, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

The Rockford Register-Star endorses Rich Whitney, thereby guaranteeing the Green Party candidate lots of press coverage and hurting Topinka’s chances of winning back those voters who may have temporarily parked their support with a protest candidate.

Only in the surreal realm of Illinois politics could red and blue combine to produce green.

The blue party candidate, Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, has danced as fast as he can on the campaign trail in a vain attempt to stay ahead of allegations of personal corruption and fiscal irresponsibility.

The red party’s pick, Republican state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, has conducted a negative and unfocused campaign that doesn’t inspire confidence she could lead the state. Her main qualification is having a lower indictment potential than the incumbent.

There is a choice, and this Editorial Board is making it by endorsing Rich Whitney, the Green Party candidate, for Illinois governor.

We believe Whitney, a 51-year-old attorney from Carbondale, could clean up state government while leading Illinois toward school finance reform, job growth, environmental responsibility and social justice. […]

Some readers will perceive this endorsement as quixotic. We view it as pragmatic rather than foolishly idealistic. This endorsement is our battle cry: Illinois voters deserve better options.

Whitney is a serious candidate who could do the job. He might not win, but we hope he gets enough votes so Illinoisans have more of a choice when they go to the polls in the future.

This attitude that Topinka’s “main qualification is having a lower indictment potential than the incumbent” is precisely the sort of thinking that Zorn warned against in this morning’s column. The paper has bought into the governor’s TV ad blitz, as Zorn did until, he claims, last week, when…

But let me ask you, as I finally stopped to ask myself late last week: What, exactly, is so evil about Judy Baar Topinka? What is so objectionable about the idea of her as governor?

OK, she’s got a zany streak and speaks more in quips than in quotes. She’s been a little too cozy with the oily bipartisan crowd of insiders who have helped disgrace our state.

But she’s refreshingly blunt, socially moderate and honest enough not to pander to voters with promises she can’t keep without saddling future generations with staggering debts. […]

She was not “George Ryan’s treasurer,” as Blagojevich’s snide commercials said, any more than she was Jim Edgar’s treasurer or Blagojevich’s treasurer. She was your treasurer. You voted for her. Because she did a good job and avoided the sort of scandal that’s crept awfully close to Blagojevich.

I’m not here to tell you Topinka has had a blameless career, would be a great governor or even that I’m planning to vote for her (full disclosure, I nearly always vote Democratic). I’m here to tell you Judy Baar Topinka is not a phony, a nitwit or a crook.

  61 Comments      


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Tuesday, Oct 31, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Question of the day

Tuesday, Oct 31, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Do you favor or oppose taxpayer funded political campaigns? Explain.

  55 Comments      


Poll stories

Tuesday, Oct 31, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

I posted a bunch of poll stories late yesterday. Here’s a list with links.

* Tribune governor’s poll (44-29-13)

* Daily Herald governor’s poll (48-32-12)

* Tribune & Daily Herald Cook County Board prez race polls (Trib: 48-33 for Stroger; Daily Herald: 51-42 for Peraica)

* New polling in US House 6 & 8

Follow the links to discuss.

I originally had comments off, but this seems a good place to discuss polling in general this year, so they’re now open.

  41 Comments      


Duped and dumped

Tuesday, Oct 31, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

Eric Zorn apparently believes that he’s bought into an ad campaign, not a reality. The headline is “Don’t be duped by Blagojevich’s snide TV ads.” And here’s how it ends:

If you vote for Blagojevich because you admire what he’s done in office and believe his promises, fine. But if you vote against Topinka because you now believe that there’s no difference in the integrity, sincerity or political courage of these two candidates, then you’re just the sucker Blagojevich was hoping you’d be. He started this as Mr. Squandered Opportunity, an earnest twit best known for expensive grandstanding and breaking his promise to reform the system in Illinois.

The millions he spent flinging offal at Topinka and sowing general revulsion has paid off, as it was nearly bound to in a Democratic state. He’s still unpopular–just 40 percent of the public views him favorably, according to our recent poll–but he’s succeeded in making her even more unpopular and racking up a 15-point lead in our poll.

Barack Obama writes of the audacity of hope. Rod Blagojevich practices the audacity of cynicism. I almost fell for it. Will you?

* Meanwhile, Topinka is finally forced to dump Kj.

Republican Judy Baar Topinka spoke out Monday against a top GOP official linked to a plot to squeeze kickbacks out of companies doing business with the state […]

Topinka stopped short of calling for Bob Kjellander, treasurer of the national Republican Party, to resign. But she said he should step down if he was involved in any misconduct.

“If Bob Kjellander has done … something wrong here, he needs to resign from his party post,” Topinka said before kicking off a statewide coffee-shop tour to talk to voters about the state’s financial situation.

  41 Comments      


Morning shorts

Tuesday, Oct 31, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Meeks sends kids to ‘hell’ - Christian fright house depicts abortion, gays

* Amtrak’s expanded service begins

* Breast cancer program expands - State closes loophole so more uninsured women can get care

* Executive order requires recycling electronics gear

* Roeper: That’s not voter apathy: They just don’t like stench of negative ads

* AP: Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s troubled fundraiser, Antoin “Tony” Rezko, won’t be able to post his luxurious suburban mansion as bond after all as he scrambles to stay out of jail.

* Gov. Rod Blagojevich appeared at the school Monday to confirm that $6.8 million in state funding will be released for the National Great Rivers Research and Education Center, a project that features a partnership among LCCC and other state and federal agencies and educational bodies.

* Topinka touts budget plan at Stockholm Inn

* McCain, Roskam overlook differences

* Ailing John Stroger unable to cast vote - He’ll miss first election of his adult life

* Tribune editorial: Democratic officials who endorse Todd Stroger, or who appear at events with him, or who record telephone robo-messages on his behalf, ought to closely examine Stroger’s advertising. Because when they vouch for Stroger as a paragon of reform, his credibility rubs off on them.

* High college costs sacrificing students’ dreams, study finds

* State grants made here as election nears

* Durbin Hits Campaign Trail

* Many Republicans expect Denny to quit if they lose House — maybe even if they don’t.

  23 Comments      


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