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SurveyUSA: 45-37-14
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller More numbers, this time it’s SurveyUSA. As I’ve been trying to point out lately, it’s almost all about Whitney’s final tally. Remember when reading this poll that the sample size is very small, 434 likely voters, which means the survey has a margin of error of ±4.8%. They interviewed 1,000 Illinois adults, 885 were registered to vote and less than half of those were deemed to be “likely voters.” If you look at a poll the firm did just a couple of weeks ago, they interviewed 1,000, found 888 registered voters and judged 578 to be likely voters. Whether that means voter turnout is depressed or not, I don’t know. I do know that this current sample size is a bit too small. I also don’t like the fact that they make such bold predictions based on such small sample sizes. Still, here it is…
I can’t see Blagojevich getting to 50 percent with any scenario, even if the Green Party support falls apart. I think they’re being a bit too optimistic here. The SurveyUSA prediction of about 45-35 leaves out the implied Whitney number: 20 percent. That seems pretty darned high. Check the Crosstabs here (remembering that the MoE will be gigantic), look at how the numbers are shaping up with the other polls, then discuss below.
This graph from Pollster.com shows trendlines since October 15.
Meanwhile, this photo of a sign on Bernardi’s Restaurant in Washington, IL was taken by a Peoria-area pal. Get Nieuked is now a movement…
We’re expecting some new ads very soon.
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Latest state treasurer TV ads - both negative
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The two candidates for state treasurer have been arguing back and forth over negative ads. Christine Radogno got the ball rollling with this spot, which, for the first time ever, uses the words of a state party chairman of the opposing party to slam an opponent… And then Alexi Giannoulias came right back at her with this ad, which Radogno has demanded that he pull off the air. Meanwhile, Giannoulias told the Southern Illinoisan that he’s “sick” of the negative ads. “We’re sick of attack ads,†Giannoulias said. “Let’s talk about ideas. People need solutions, and I can tell you that talking about the things my opponent or other people before me have done is not providing a solu-tion.†Not included in the article was a single mention of Giannoulias’ own negative ad. ![]()
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Fun with phones
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Clever. A dirty trick that is disguised as simply supplying information for voters.
I asked the Duckworth campaign about this after a comment about the goings-on appeared here at the blog.
Listen to the robocall by clicking here. [wav file] Meanwhile, Laura Bush was in town today for Peter Roskam and David McSweeney.
Also, Roskam just sent out a release promising a “Late breaking special campaign announcement” tomorrow morning.
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Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Yet another coinkydink?
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Dan Curry is a blogger, but he also works for the Topinka-Birkett campaign. With that in mind, have a look at his latest entry.
And guess who brought that contract to the State Board of Investments? A company connected to Nick Hurtgen. Go read the whole thing.
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Question of the day
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Will people cast a protest vote for Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, who most likely can’t win, or will they vote for one of the two major party candidates? Most importantly, what will be Whitney’s final percent?
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Neanderthal comment won’t die
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The governor’s over the top “defense” of his wife’s business dealings with people connected to state government won’t go away. The guv defended her by attacking critics as “Neanderthals.” The result is the governor’s campaign took a story buried on the same Friday that Stu Levine pled guilty and kept it alive for almost a week by injecting a bogus claim of sexism into the equation. Topinka added more fuel to the fire yesterday.
That’s the very same appearance of conflict that all state employees are warned to avoid. It’s the same conflict that all attorneys, reporters and just about anyone with any common sense avoids. And since Mrs. Blagojevich only did the one deal this year, it shouldn’t be asking too much of her to check to see if there were any potential conflicts of interest. This is the old way of doing business. The very old way. Here’s more from a Southern Illinoisan columnist (I assume it’s Jim Muir, but I didn’t see a name listed).
Meanwhile, the Tribune editorial board is sick of the governor’s attacks on Topinka.
Topinka struck back against some of the attacks yesterday. NBC5:
A Lee Newspapers article, not a column, compared the governor to George Ryan. Gov. Rod Blagojevich appears to have ripped a page from his predecessor’s playbook as he seeks to seal up support for a second term. And Kristen McQueary wonders what’s up with the female vote? Alas, impossible-to-please women voters are to blame for forcing female politicians to downplay their feminine attributes, even though we gossip about them anyway.
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Copley treasurer: 39-33-7, 21 percent undecided
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The new Copley poll has Alexi Giannoulias leading Christine Radogno by just six points, 39-33, with 7 percent for the Green Party candidate and a whopping 21 percent still undecided.
Here are the most recent polls in the race, including the latest Copley poll:
There really isn’t much else in the story except the numbers in the other down-ballot races:
Meanwhile, the Sun-Times has a story on the battle entitled “Youth seems to be trumping experience in treasurer race” and the AP has a piece on Radogno’s objection to Giannoulias’ latest campaign ad.
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Morning shorts
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller * Daily Herald: Sort through the charges and counter-charges, however, and what emerges is that none of the four congressional candidates is putting forth a plan that would keep Social Security from going bankrupt after Baby Boomers retire and there aren’t enough workers left to keep the program afloat. * Oy: Voting equipment glitches lingering * And another oy: Early voters finding machines aren’t without faults * Brown: Obama’s dealings with Rezko buy a parcel of questions * Sneed has a bit about those state mailers to families of “newborns” from the governor * St. Amand: “I racked my brain to come up with Dan Hynes as the Democrat and Carole Pankau as the Republican in the comptroller’s race. I knew Alexi Giannoulias was the Democrat running for treasurer, but I couldn’t spell his name. And I drew a blank on Christine Radogno as the Republican candidate.” * Bernie: GOP worried about ‘throwaway’ votes for Whitney * Tridgell: They can’t drive [on Tollway] much faster than 55 * Privatized lottery: The ticket to ride? * Web tactic on foe’s behalf upsets appellate court candidate * Parties thinking small to get votes - Microtargeting helps find sympathetic ears * Tribune: The two candidates running to replace retiring Cook County Sheriff Michael Sheahan agree the department must be modernized and should embrace a more effective use of technology. Beyond that, there is little common ground linking Democrat Tom Dart and Republican Peter Garza.
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Copley guv: 44-40-7
Thursday, Nov 2, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Copley’s complete poll story doesn’t tell us much. Blagojevich’s lead, according to the poll, has shrunk to just 4 percent, 44-40-7 with 9 percent still undecided. The statewide poll of 625 likely voters was conducted Monday and Tuesday and has a margin of error of 4 points.
If they’re up by 16, why would they be running such hard negative ads? Also, here is how Copley compares to the last several polls: * 44-40-7 - Copley, Oct.30-31
No mention of who the all-important undecided voters are, or how they’ve broken since the last Copley poll, rendering this story not nearly as useful as it could be. Still, knowing the way independents are breaking is helpful. It would be nice to know if she’s doing any better with her own base of Republicans and how she’s doing with Democrats (Republicans cannot win Illinois without taking a chunk of the Democratic vote.)
That’s not great news for the governor, who has been proclaiming the robustness of the state’s economy. If undecideds break on that pocket-book issue alone, the race will tighten. Besides this, there is the usual stuff about how both major candidates are unpopular and how the Rezko/Levine scandals make voters somewhat less likely to support Blagojevich (28 percent) and Topinka (11 percent), how the public is split on whether Blagojevich has conducted himself ethically while in office (41 yes, 43 no) and how his job performance rating is in the tank, with 66 percent rating it fair or poor. Undecideds are the key, of course. This late in the game it’s good to know whether they even intend to vote and if they do vote who they are and which way they might break. None of these questions were answered by Copley’s poll - or at least they weren’t included in this story. Maybe there will be more detail later today or tomorrow. Let’s hope so. SurveyUSA is said to be in the field, so we should have more numbers soon. Unlike Copley (so far, at least) SurveyUSA publishes its crosstabs. The last Copley poll, released in late September, had the race at 47-37-4, with 12 percent undecided.
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The home stretch
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Site traffic is up well over 50 percent in the past two months. The election is bringing a lot of new people to the blog and with it some new tensions in the comments section. For you newbies, please observe a few simple rules. And for those of you who have been around awhile, give yourself a refresher by reading what’s posted below. * Bizarre conspiracy theories like one posted today - Copley fabricated a poll that was favorable to a Republican in order to help the Democrats - are seriously frowned upon. Perhaps there are some of you reading this now who don’t think this theory was all that bizarre. My advice to those people is to go somewhere else. In the past, you would have been publicly derided for your goofiness, but since the theorists are multiplying, I’m just gonna delete your posts without argument and put you into comment moderation (all your comments will then be held for approval by me), and perhaps banish you forever. * “Does not” “Does too” “Does not” “Does too” flame wars are boring and stupid. I know that elections can get the blood boiling, but please refrain from wasting everyone’s time with such nonsense. Deletions are certain, moderation is probable, banishment is possible if you persist in being a jerk. * Try to say something original, not regurgitate something you saw somebody say on another blog. Derision will surely follow. Eventual moderation is likely. * Profanity in any form is not allowed. Using strategically placed symbols like @ or # or $ won’t work, either. 100 percent deletion, very likely permanent moderation, possibility of perpetual banishment. * Posting a bumper sticker slogan like “Vote Peraica” as your only comment is incredibly goofy. Deletion is probable. Repeat violations will result in moderation. Banishment for worst offenders. * Rumors or even “facts” that you fervently believe to be true because you heard it from someone you consider to be a reliable source should be e-mailed to reporters or the feds, not posted here. Immediate deletion, permanent moderation, likely banishment. * Let’s all try to be somewhat nice to each other, despite our disagreements. Elections end, politicians come and go, hot button issues ebb and flow, but we’ll always be here… or something like that. Thanks much. - Rich
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Late TV ads
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Melissa Bean’s positive closer: Peter Roskam attacks Tammy Duckworth on Social Security: DCCC closer for Duckworth: ![]()
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New poll has “dead heat” in guv’s race
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Copley poll: 44-40-7 Sorry. I was out of the office and couldn’t link to the story.
These are the newest numbers we have. The Tribune poll (44-29-13) was taken Oct. 27-29. The Daily Herald poll (48-32-12) was taken Oct. 16-22. We can pretty much bet that Blagojevich is stalled in the mid-40s, where he’s been for months. The real question has been for weeks whether voters would actually vote for a third party candidate or whether they were just temporarily parked there instead of sitting in the undecided column. Also, there are still quite a few undecideds in this poll. Hopefully, Copley will tell us who those people are - since that would seem to be the most important part of this story. [Let’s close comments on this. Go here for more discussion on Copley’s poll.]
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Neanderthal, continued…
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller A couple of stories about the governor’s wife doing business with a state contractor. This one was just posted:
And this one ran in the morning, but I forgot to post it.
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Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Question of the day
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Should campaign contributions be capped in Illinois? Comments are a bit short, so let me add this… If so, at what levels? If not, why?
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AP fact checks guv
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The AP points out a major flaw in the governor’s self defense. When asked whether [Tony Rezko and Stu Levine’s] conduct raises questions about his judgment, Blagojevich answered it shows the need for strong systems to root out corruption. This story shows once again that every word he says has to be checked and double-checked. He will say anything. That attribute makes him an incredibly good campaigner, as long as his opponent doesn’t have the cash to respond, but it doesn’t exactly make him a fount of reliable information. As I wrote in this morning’s Capitol Fax, the “say anything” campaign is epitomized in this radio ad [wav file], which accuses her of all sorts of nasty things, including how she “runs down those who honor our veterans” and claiming she wants to raise taxes. And here’s another one just like it.
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Negativity
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The governor’s race takes another nasty turn.
It’s difficult to defend yourself against a well-funded opponent who will literally say anything to win. Meanwhile, Christine Radogno’s campaign demanded that Alexi Giannoulias pull a TV ad off the air. From a press release:
Maybe so, but a whole lot of Democratic legislators are being whacked but good by their Republican opponents this fall for taking campaign contributions from utilities and for voting for the 1997 electric dereg bill - the basis for the slam against Radogno. I didn’t see Radogno standing up for them. While it may be an unfair hit, it’s been a common refrain this year.
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Turnout myths
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The focus in the media for the next week will be largely on voter turnout. But how accurate will the reporting be? This excellent piece has been making the rounds of the blogs all week, but I keep forgetting to post it. The 5 myths of voter turnout, by Michael McDonald, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Go read the whole thing, especially if you’re an editorial writer, reporter, columnist or pundit. Meanwhile, the Sun-Times has the latest on early voting.
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Poll has statewide incumbents with huge leads, Day backs poll of 154 people
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Remember, these Richard Day poll numbers are pretty old, but I doubt it will make much difference in the blow-out down-ballot races. However, Day’s ancient numbers may very well be a lot different now in the still somewhat volatile treasurer’s race. In the race for secretary of state, incumbent Democrat Jesse white has a commanding lead. 65 percent of likely voters polled support White. He’s well ahead of Republican Dan Rutherford who has 24 percent. Green party candidate Karen Peterson picked up 6 percent. 5 percent of voters surveyed are still undecided. […] * Attorney General & Comptroller:
* And pollster Richard Day sums it up for the Daily Herald. “It looks like it could be a sweep,†said Richard Day, whose Evanston-based firm conducted the poll. “There’s no one to pull up the bottom of the ticket (for Republicans).†* Meanwhile, the Daily Herald tries to explain why its Cook County Board President poll was so different from the Tribune’s poll. * And if you think Richard Day and the media outlets should be ashamed of himself for polling only 300 Cook County residents over several days and then sitting on the results for 8 days, check this out:
Unreal. By the way, Day used his rating method to guage voter interest in several issues.
Just because a political party focuses on an issue like immigration doesn’t mean voters will necessarily care all that much.
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Congressional roundup
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller * The national Dems upgraded Seals a few days back, but the Sun-Times has more detail about what they’re up to. Democrat Dan Seals is finally getting the attention of the national Democrats in his drive to defeat Rep. Mark Kirk in a 10th District congressional race that is getting closer than expected. * Animal Farm adds this: For a guy who clamored for more debates against Republican Congressman Mark Kirk, Democrat Dan Seals sure treats his rare chances to debate Kirk funnily. ‘The Tribune has the money roundup in the two big congressional races.
And the Daily Herald has a piece on worries about the third party candidate in Bean’s district.
More here.
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Morning shorts
Wednesday, Nov 1, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller * Southtown: Todd Stroger’s campaign is counting on a last-minute push from Chicago’s rock star of politics, Barack Obama, to put Stroger over the top in what still appears to be a tight race for Cook County Board president. * Rezko owns vacant lot next to Obama’s home * Sneed: Hmmm: Sneed hears rumbles a mink coat reportedly belonging to Michelle Obama, wife of Sen. Barack Obama, may have gone missing following the Rev. Jesse Jackson’s Saturday birthday bash at the South Shore Cultural Center. * Lieutenant governor candidates spar over hiring investigation [Audio clips at site] * Top donors as of late Monday night. * Newspaper’s practices criticized during libel trial - Attorneys for chief justice say paper did not ensure columnist”s information was true * Illinois Supreme Court justices testify in libel case * Gubernatorial Wives’ Work Ethics–Now & Then * Officials announce reforms at Cook County juvenile center * Sun-Times: Politics is a dirty tricks business but when it comes to Halloween, the two gubernatorial candidates offered up only treats Tuesday night. * Sun-Times: Mayor Daley has purchased $80,000 in radio time over the next six days to urge Chicago voters — with the help of his running mate, state Sen. Miguel del Valle (D-Chicago), — to support advisory referendums on Tuesday’s ballot. * Richards: Don’t let upcoming election spook you
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He belongs to everyone, now *** Updated x1 ***
Tuesday, Oct 31, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Our old buddy Tim Nieukirk was interviewed by CBS2 today. Click the pic for the report. Meanwhile, Nieukirk’s recently energized campaign has posted two new videos. * “Your baby tastes horrible” * The Man, The Myth, The Legend: Join hands, y’all, let’s all Get Nieuked. See all of Nieukirk’s “campaign ads” here. His MySpace page is here. And you can buy Get Nieuked gear here. The nets or CNN need to step in and take this thing to the next level. *** UPDATE *** Well, that was fast. From comments: “Brit Hume just ran the clip ‘in bed with yer sister’ on FOX news.” The perfect fit here would be The Daily Show. ![]()
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RR-Star goes Green
Tuesday, Oct 31, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The Rockford Register-Star endorses Rich Whitney, thereby guaranteeing the Green Party candidate lots of press coverage and hurting Topinka’s chances of winning back those voters who may have temporarily parked their support with a protest candidate.
This attitude that Topinka’s “main qualification is having a lower indictment potential than the incumbent” is precisely the sort of thinking that Zorn warned against in this morning’s column. The paper has bought into the governor’s TV ad blitz, as Zorn did until, he claims, last week, when…
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Tuesday, Oct 31, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Question of the day
Tuesday, Oct 31, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Do you favor or oppose taxpayer funded political campaigns? Explain.
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Poll stories
Tuesday, Oct 31, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller I posted a bunch of poll stories late yesterday. Here’s a list with links. * Tribune governor’s poll (44-29-13) * Daily Herald governor’s poll (48-32-12) * Tribune & Daily Herald Cook County Board prez race polls (Trib: 48-33 for Stroger; Daily Herald: 51-42 for Peraica) * New polling in US House 6 & 8 Follow the links to discuss. I originally had comments off, but this seems a good place to discuss polling in general this year, so they’re now open.
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Duped and dumped
Tuesday, Oct 31, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Eric Zorn apparently believes that he’s bought into an ad campaign, not a reality. The headline is “Don’t be duped by Blagojevich’s snide TV ads.” And here’s how it ends: If you vote for Blagojevich because you admire what he’s done in office and believe his promises, fine. But if you vote against Topinka because you now believe that there’s no difference in the integrity, sincerity or political courage of these two candidates, then you’re just the sucker Blagojevich was hoping you’d be. He started this as Mr. Squandered Opportunity, an earnest twit best known for expensive grandstanding and breaking his promise to reform the system in Illinois. * Meanwhile, Topinka is finally forced to dump Kj.
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Morning shorts
Tuesday, Oct 31, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller * Meeks sends kids to ‘hell’ - Christian fright house depicts abortion, gays * Amtrak’s expanded service begins * Breast cancer program expands - State closes loophole so more uninsured women can get care * Executive order requires recycling electronics gear * Roeper: That’s not voter apathy: They just don’t like stench of negative ads * AP: Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s troubled fundraiser, Antoin “Tony” Rezko, won’t be able to post his luxurious suburban mansion as bond after all as he scrambles to stay out of jail. * Gov. Rod Blagojevich appeared at the school Monday to confirm that $6.8 million in state funding will be released for the National Great Rivers Research and Education Center, a project that features a partnership among LCCC and other state and federal agencies and educational bodies. * Topinka touts budget plan at Stockholm Inn * McCain, Roskam overlook differences * Ailing John Stroger unable to cast vote - He’ll miss first election of his adult life * Tribune editorial: Democratic officials who endorse Todd Stroger, or who appear at events with him, or who record telephone robo-messages on his behalf, ought to closely examine Stroger’s advertising. Because when they vouch for Stroger as a paragon of reform, his credibility rubs off on them. * High college costs sacrificing students’ dreams, study finds * State grants made here as election nears * Durbin Hits Campaign Trail * Many Republicans expect Denny to quit if they lose House — maybe even if they don’t.
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