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New Hampshire open thread *** Clinton wins New Hampshire - NBC Projection ***

Tuesday, Jan 8, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

Just in case you want to talk about tonight’s results.

*** Watch live coverage on MSNBC or CNN or follow it on Fox. ***

*** 9:33 pm *** NBC projects Hillary Clinton is the winner. It’s about time. She’s been ahead all night by 4 to 5,000 votes.

*** 8:49 pm *** Hotline blog…

Exit polls of the NH Dem primary show a 39%-39% tie between HRC and Obama, with Edwards at 16%.

*** 8:35 pm *** I’m getting word from the Obama campaign that college towns and other areas that favor their candidate have not yet been tallied, while Manchester (which Clinton dominates) has been mostly counted.

Also, from MSNBC, of those who made up their minds in the past three days…

Obama: 39
Clinton: 38

*** 8:26 pm *** From CNN…

Forty-five percent of female Democratic primary voters picked Clinton, compared to 36 percent who went for Obama

Age is also playing a big factor. Older voters are overwhelmingly outnumbering younger voters, a proportion that is clearly benefiting Clinton. Sixty-seven percent of Democratic primary voters are over the age of 40, and they are breaking heavily for Clinton over Obama.

*** 7:54 pm *** The Nation…

Written off just hours ago as a political “dead woman walking,” Hillary Clinton is running far better than expected in early results and exit polls from the critical first-in-the-nation Democratic presidential primary. […]

Exit polling shows that, while young voters came out in big numbers, older voters — especially women over 50 — came out in far higher than expected numbers.

*** 7:02 pm - MSNBC just claimed the Dem primary race is “too close to call” judging by exit polls and current results. ***

From Fox News…

Early exit polling of Republicans showed McCain with 35 percent compared to 30 percent for Mitt Romney and 13 percent for Mike Huckabee. Of those voting in the Democratic primary, 39 percent were going for Obama, while 34 percent were going for Hillary Clinton and John Edwards was at 18 percent.

CNN…

Self-styled independents, who made up 43 percent of all voters polled, said they voted for Obama by a margin of 45 percent to 26 percent for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, Obama’s chief rival.

* 5:19 pm - CNN is starting to get exit poll results…

New Hampshire Republican primary voters
Should the next president:
Generally continue George W. Bush’s policies – 18 percent
Change to more conservative policies – 51 percent
Change to less conservative policies – 24 percent

And this…

Eighteen percent of Republicans and 15 percent of Democrats said they settled on a candidate on Election Day.

One more on exit polling…

Preliminary exit poll results indicate that just over four in 10 voters in the New Hampshire Democratic primary are independents, compared with 48 percent in 2004 and a record 50 percent in 1992.

In the Republican primary, preliminary results indicate again that about four in 10 are independents, similar to the previous high of 42 percent in 2000.

Preliminary exit poll results indicate that more than half of voters in the Democratic primary are saying they’re most interested in a candidate who can bring about needed change — a mantle all the candidates have been reaching for since the Iowa caucuses..

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Who is this guy?

Tuesday, Jan 8, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

This quote in yesterday’s Daily Herald story regarding Barack Obama’s somewhat misleading claims about his health care accomplishments in Illinois jumped out at me…

Robert Rich, director of the University of Illinois’ Institute of Government and Public Affairs, considered it a stretch and questioned Obama’s credentials as a health care reformer.

“He was not the prime mover and shaker for health care in Illinois,” Rich said.

If I was on Hillary Clinton’s campaign, I’d cherry pick that “He was not the prime mover and shaker for health care in Illinois” quote and put it on TV. Heck, I’d do it if I was on John Edwards’ campaign, or a Republican campaign.

But here’s the rub: Robert Rich is a virtual unkown at the Illinois Statehouse and appears not to have been involved in the push to expand health care.

I talked to Sen. Willie Delgado (D-Chicago) last night about Rich’s quote. Delgado worked on health care legislation with Obama and chaired the House Human Services Committee at the time.

“I’ve never heard of him,” Delgado said about Rich. In all his years traveling to health care conferences, sponsoring bills, chairing his committee, Delgado never once ran across the guy.

Jim Duffett of the Illinois Campaign for Better Health Care is pretty much the health care guru for the Blagojevich administration. When asked today whether Professor Rich was involved with the health care legislation that Obama is taking credit for, Duffett said: “Not at all.”

Sen. Carol Ronen, who sponsored the governor’s massive health care expansion bill last year, said today that she has never heard of Rich either.

Rep. Rosemary Mulligan, a Republican who is also involved in health care legislation, has heard of Rich, she thinks, but doesn’t know what he has done to pass health care bills in the state other than perhaps testifying occasionally on legislation.

Rep. Mulligan agrees with Rich’s assertion, by the way, and I also think that’s still open to question.

But my problem with this whole thing is that Rich is presenting himself as some sort of insider expert when most actual honest to goodness insiders say they’ve never even heard of the guy or that he wasn’t involved in the process.

I’ve long had a problem with college professors who think they know what’s “really” going on in Springfield but who never show their faces at the capitol. Paul Green is an exception because when he was regularly pontificating on state issues he kept in regular contact with many of us, including myself.

I tried calling Professor Rich today, but he’s out of the office. I left a message and sent him an e-mail. I’ll post his reply if he ever responds.

In the meantime, here’s some unsolicited advice: If you’re clueless, don’t act like you’re an expert.

68 Comments

Question of the day *** UPDATED x1 ***

Tuesday, Jan 8, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

I’m working on an Obama post for later today, but in the meantime let’s discuss this question…

How does Hillary Clinton stop Obama’s momentum? Can she? What about Edwards?

*** UPDATE *** This is something to think about. Here’s the setup…

A federal judge refused Tuesday to delay the fraud trial of businessman Antoin “Tony” Rezko, a key fundraiser for Gov. Rod Blagojevich and other Illinois politicians.

U.S. District Judge Amy J. St. Eve told defense attorneys that they have enough time to prepare for the trial scheduled to start Feb. 25 even though they are still sorting through 1.5 million documents in the case.

* In about ten days, attorneys from both sides are supposed to present to Judge St. Eve a list of people whose names may come up at trial.

I just got off the phone with Rezko’s defense attorney William Ziegelmueller. I asked Ziegelmueller if he had any indication that either the feds or Rezko’s defense would bring up Barack Obama’s name during the trial. Ziegelmueller refused comment, but it didn’t seem overly likely.

The trial won’t get underway until long after Super Duper Tuesday, but if Obama’s name is on that list, there could be a big blowup in advance of February 5th.

And then there’s this, from the same article…

Defense attorneys… want to know something about the political views of jurors.

“This case is about politics — there’s no other way around it,” Ziegelmueller told the judge.

Even if Obama’s name isn’t on that list (and it may not be) and even if his name isn’t mentioned if the defense is allowed to question jurors about their political views, this trial is set to heat up just when reporters - perhaps stung by critics for their overly glowing portraits of Obama - are looking for a way to even the score.

As an example, here’s how MSNBC’s “FirstRead” blog led their Rezko blurb today…

A federal judge denied a request to delay the fraud trial of businessman Antoin “Tony” Rezko, a one-time key Obama fundraiser and friend while the now-presidential candidate was in the Illinois state senate and during his U.S. Senate run.

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