* A recently released poll by the Survey Research Office, located in the Center for State Policy and Leadership, of the University of Illinois at Springfield had predictable results for the Democratic presidential primary here in Illinois. The telephone survey was conducted over a six-week period, from July 24 through September 4, 2007. According to the SRO, the entire survey consisted of interviews with 1,028 randomly-selected Illinois households.

* Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 51-27 among those who say they’ll take a Democratic primary ballot.

Obama’s lead decreases only slightly when the voting pool is narrowed to those who indicated they are “very likely” to vote in the primary (49%-27%). Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards is a distant third in all of these groups, at 6%. About 13-14% in all these groups have no opinion.

* Democratic crosstabs are here. Republican crosstabs are here.

* The Republican results are more interesting, of course…

Giuliani has a lead of 34% to 19% over Arizona Senator John McCain among respondents who said they would take a Republican ballot in the primary. Following in a close race for third are former Tennessee Senator and actor Fred Thompson (12%) and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (11%). Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee garners nearly 6%. About 14% have no opinion. (It should be noted that the survey was completed prior to Fred Thompson’s formal entry into the race and prior to former Illinois Governor James Thompson’s endorsement of Giuliani.)

Giuliani’s margin over McCain drops a bit when the voting pool is expanded to include all those who were asked the Republican preference questions (30%-19%). [This includes Republicans and independents leaning Republican who did not say what party ballot they would choose.]

The same decrease in his margin occurs when the pool is narrowed to those who indicated they are “very likely” to vote in the primary (31%-18%). These drops are a result of a small decline in Giuliani’s support rather than an increase in McCain’s. Among “very likely” voters, Fred Thompson’s support increases to 15% while Romney is at 12% and Huckabee at 4%. About 17% have no opinion.

The Republican race differs when the strength of Republican identification is taken into account.

For “strong” Republicans, Giuliani holds a lead of 35% to 18% over Fred Thompson. Romney is at 11%, McCain at 10% and Huckabee at 9%. About 12% have no opinion.

For possible Republican voters who are not “strong” Republicans, Giuliani holds a narrow 27% to 24% lead over McCain. Following are Romney (11%) and Fred Thompson (nearly 10%). Texas Congressman Ron Paul (nearly 4%) and Huckabee (3%) are next. One in five (20%) have no opinion.

* By region…

For “all possible” Republican primary voters, Giuliani’s lead narrows as we move further from the Chicago area. For instance, he has a lead over McCain of 34%-18% in the Chicago suburbs, with Fred Thompson and Romney both at 10% and Huckabee at 7%. In north/central Illinois, Giuliani’s lead decreases to 28% vs. 17% for both McClain and Fred Thompson (with Romney at 6%). And, his lead decreases even further to a virtual tie at 21%-20% with McCain in southern Illinois (with Fred Thompson at 13%, Romney at 7% and Huckabee at 4%). (Not enough possible Republican primary voters were interviewed in the City of Chicago to reach meaningful conclusions.)

* By gender…

Giuliani has a substantial lead over McCain among possible female Republican voters (37%-14%), followed by Romney (9%) and then Fred Thompson (6%). But, among males, he has only a slight lead over McCain (24%-21%) followed closely by Fred Thompson (17%). Romney garners 10% of the male support, and Huckabee is at 8%.

Thoughts?

[Hat tip: Bethany]

*** UPDATE *** I forgot to post the trend lines. You’ll recall that I commissioned a poll back in April on presidential preference. Here are the new results with my old results in parentheses…

Democrats
Obama 51.1 (52.6)
Clinton 26.8 (24.6)
Edwards 6.1 (9.5)
Biden 1.8 (2.3)
Kucinich 0.6 (1.25)
Richardson 0.4 (2.4)
Dodd 0.4 (0.53)
Gravel 0.0 (N/A)
Undecided 12.8 (6.9)

Republicans
Giuliani 33.5 (25.7)
McCain 18.9 (26.1)
F. Thompson 12.4 (17.4)
Romney 11.3 (10.2)
Huckabee 5.8 (N/A)
Paul 2.2 (N/A)
Brownback 1.5 (N/A)
Hunter 0.7 (N/A)
Tancredo 0.4 (N/A)
T. Thompson OUT (3.3)
Undecided 13.5 (17.2)

There was much more movement on the Republican side, which reflects national trends.