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New poll: Pritzker up by 17, Raoul leads by 11

Thursday, Sep 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* ABC 7

Democratic candidate for Illinois governor JB Pritzker and Democratic candidate for Illinois attorney general Kwame Raoul lead their opponents by a wide margin in a new poll released late Thursday by the Illinois Broadcasters Association.

Asking 1,024 respondents who they’d choose for governor if the election were held today, the IBA poll showed Pritzker leading Republican governor Bruce Rauner 44 percent to 27.1 percent. Conservative Party candidate Sam McCann got 6.4 percent and Libertarian Party candidate Kash Jackson got 4.3 percent, and 12.6 percent said they didn’t know or hadn’t decided.

In the attorney general race, 43.4 percent of respondents said they’d vote for Raoul if the election were held today, while 31.7 percent said they’d vote for Republican candidate Erika Harold, and 20 percent said they didn’t know or hadn’t decided. […]

The poll found 23.9 percent of respondents had an overall favorable view of Rauner and 52.4 percent had an overall unfavorable view of him. Only 3.1 percent of respondents had never heard of the governor, and 3.8 percent said they had no opinion.

24 percent favorable. Whew. The report implies these were registered voters, however. Those results tend to skew more toward the Dems.

More here at NBC 5.

…Adding… Yep…



…Adding… Complete results are here.

  50 Comments      


*** UPDATED x2- Long does radio interview - Long refuses to resign *** House Republicans pull all resources from Rep. Jerry Long’s campaign after harassment investigation, urge him to resign

Thursday, Sep 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Late last Friday afternoon and throughout the evening, my phone absolutely blew up with people telling me about allegations of some sort of harassment by freshman Rep. Jerry Lee Long (R-Streator). I eventually figured out that it had something to do with his campaign and on Saturday morning I asked a House Republican Organization official for a response. I was told they were “in the process of gathering facts on a personnel issue” and would discuss it with me the following week.

Well, it’s the following week. From House GOP Leader Jim Durkin’s spokesperson Eleni Demertzis…

Over Labor Day weekend, the House Republican Organization was made aware of allegations into Rep. Long’s behavior.

We immediately brought in a third party firm to investigate these allegations, and upon completion of their report on September 12, a decision was made to withdraw support of Rep. Long’s campaign, restrict access to all caucus resources and recommend he step down from his position.

At the request of the complainant for privacy, there is no other information we can release at this time. The House Republican caucus and organization has a zero tolerance policy on harassment of any kind.

* I reached out to Rep. Long this afternoon and he said he had not yet seen the release, so I read it to him. “No comment,” he said. “I’ll have to look into it. No comment.”

The “restrict access to all caucus resources” means Long will receive no resources outside of his legislative district office allotment, which is mandated by law (see the Sam McCann lawsuit stories for what will be withheld).

Rep. Long is a Tier One target, so this is a huge blow to the GOP. He’s attracted the ire of the unions because he ran as a pro-union Republican and then flipped on them (at the governor’s behest) once in office. The unions and the Democrats have a ton of precinct workers in that district, so lots of them will now likely be moved to other races, which is also bad for the Republicans.

The alleged victim wants to remain publicly unnamed and that’s her right and I completely respect it. Anyone trying to guess in comments will be banned for life.

…Adding… Someone asked in comments if he can be replaced on the ballot. The answer is no. The deadline expired in late August.

…Adding… From Matt Dietrich at the Illinois State Board of Elections…

Aug. 24 was the last day for a candidate to withdraw and make sure their name didn’t appear on the ballot.

…Adding… Actually, he can be replaced. I misunderstood Matt when we talked about a different race earlier this month. From Dietrich…

The managing committee can fill a vacancy in nomination up to 16 days before the election. They need to do it within eight days of a vacancy occurring.

*** UPDATE 1 *** The News Tribune has Rep. Long’s response

The statement by Leader Durkin stated that they do not stand any kind of harassment. Because of the nature of this high pace/high pressure nature of this campaign, I can be demanding. This is not a sexual harassment of any kind, but merely a difference of opinion on the lack of support by the Republican Party that goes back several months. At this time I have no intention on pulling out of the race because this just proves that I’m not a part of the “Good Ole Boys ” club.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Rep. Long did a radio interview this afternoon on WCMY. Click here. He repeated some comments from his official statement. “I can be demanding,” he said. “It’s extremely important to understand that I expect a lot out of people and that’s what the allegation is.”

“That you’re an abusive boss, more or less?” the host asked.

“Uh, uh, I’m a demanding boss, yes,” Long replied.

  53 Comments      


Rauner says he’s “grown,” says he’s now willing to “accept incremental improvements,” bashes Madigan and unloads on Pritzker

Thursday, Sep 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Click here to watch the video. Gov. Rauner’s speech that he hopes will “frame the election”…

Four years ago, I ran for governor on a bold plan to change state government, and unlock Illinois’ potential.

I was a political newcomer. A private citizen who was called to serve, to fix the biggest problems in our state.

Serving as your governor is an honor. It’s also the hardest thing I’ve ever done. To lead Illinois at this critical time, when our challenges as a state are so large, and our politics are so tragically small.

But the cause of fixing the great state of Illinois is worth the stress. Because short of being a good husband, father, and grandfather, building a stronger future for the 12.8 million people of our state is the most important thing I’ll do with my life.

To get Illinois back on track, we have to be honest about the changes we need to make. I have been criticized over my time in office for speaking too negatively about Illinois. I don’t need to list here today all the challenges we face. But I do believe it’s my responsibility as governor to tell the truth about the situation we find ourselves in.

It’s impossible to fix a problem by pretending it doesn’t exist.

The people of Illinois know our system is broken. It was true four years ago. It’s still true today.

I passionately believe that we can reform state government under the principle of public service, making government work for the people rather than for the insiders. Taking power from the politicians and giving it back to the people is the key to driving the change we need.

When I arrived in Springfield, I leaned on my decades of experience in the private sector. I was successful in business because I brought “out of the box” thinking to existing problems. I rose to the top of my field because I challenged the status quo and thought of new ways to do old things. I brought that mindset to Springfield, and sought to turn Illinois around by changing everything at once. I believed a dramatic, aggressive approach could shock state government into shape and bring Illinois back to life.

While it was true – and remains true – that Illinois needs massive reform to get back on track, I underestimated how difficult change can be in government.

You all know this truth: spending more money we don’t have and taking more money from taxpayers in hopes it will cover the bill, will lead us to disaster.

But you should know this as well: I have learned from my years on the job.

I have learned that the two most important things for success in public service are courage and understanding.

Courage to do what’s right regardless of the political consequences and understanding that there are different points of view, different priorities and approaches, even when we share the same goal of wanting to improve Illinois.

And by embracing courage and understanding, we can chart a new path for Illinois. That’s what I pledge to do over the next four years.

Admittedly, I may have overdone it on the courage part at times. I’ve done things that cost me politically, because I was more focused on doing what was right.

I know the budget impasse was painful. It kept me up at night worrying about the disruption that many families experienced. All of us elected officials let you down in that struggle.

But the budget impasse was a fight for reform. The people of Illinois have suffered for decades under a political system that cares less about the people it represents, than about keeping special interests happy to win the next election. A system that does what’s politically easy instead of what’s right.

It takes courage to stand up to the special interests and the status quo. But I’ve learned that it’s equally important to build mutual understanding – to find common ground with those elected officials who want to change things for the better.

It’s no secret that real divides exist between our political parties. That’s why I’ve learned to listen. It takes wisdom to listen to those who disagree with you, wisdom that can be gained only through years of tough political fights.

I have learned that building consensus around ideas … hammering out policy details … clearly communicating to the people of Illinois why they matter … these things take time in government. Sometimes more time than we’d like.

And I have learned that there are countless areas where we can work together – with Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. When we put aside our partisan differences and focus on the good of the people, we can get great things done.

That’s how we’ve made progress for the people of Illinois. We have made important progress in many areas, including:

Education reform, achieving record levels of K-12 and early childhood investment, greater equity in school funding, and more school choice.

Healthcare reform that improved access to quality care for Illinoisans, saved taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars, and makes us a national leader in behavioral health.

Groundbreaking criminal justice reform, reducing recidivism and increasing public safety by addressing the root causes of criminal behavior.

A future energy plan that puts Illinois on the forefront of efficiency and independence.

A major expansion of the U of I, to make Illinois a world leader in economic growth through technology, research, and innovation.

And by cutting through red tape and supporting entrepreneurs, we’ve created over 210,000 net new jobs since I took office.

After years of tough political fights, Republicans and Democrats came to the negotiating table and worked together to pass a budget. It isn’t perfect; that’s the nature of compromise. But it’s bipartisan momentum we will build on in a second term.

These are OUR successes – bipartisan and with meaningful, measurable, lasting impact for the people of Illinois. Achieving these things required courage … and they required understanding.

I stand before you today a man of no less courage, but perhaps greater understanding.

In divided government, you can’t fix things all at once. You have to be willing to accept incremental improvements. You can’t sacrifice progress for the sake of winning an argument.

But the disruption, the arguments, the negotiations of the past four years have laid the groundwork for real and necessary change. We can continue to move, albeit more slowly than I’d proposed, towards the change that Illinois needs. We can build on the bipartisan successes to move our state forward.

I’m a better governor now than when I took office because of what I’ve learned. And that experience makes me uniquely qualified to lead Illinois.

Today, I ask voters to allow me to continue the work we started, to unlock Illinois’ unlimited potential.

The pillars of this work remain the same: reducing taxes, growing jobs, and ending corruption in state government.

My goals for a second term are the complete opposite of my opponent’s. Pritzker’s plans for more reckless spending and another round of devastating tax hikes would spell disaster for our state. We cannot tax our way to a better future.

The reforms we need aren’t partisan or unreasonable. Our neighboring states have flattened and reduced taxes for their residents. Bluer states than Illinois have put in place the same common sense reforms I’ve proposed: Rhode Island Democrats achieved bipartisan pension reform, Massachusetts Democrats reformed their worker’s compensation and government healthcare systems, California Democrats passed term limits and have tackled gerrymandering.

We’ve proposed these things before, but Speaker Madigan has pulled the rug out from under reform. Even when his fellow Democrats desired the same changes, he has stood in the way.

But Speaker Madigan and his political machine are weaker now than at any time in recent memory. The scandals and controversies, the fiscal reality of our state, and the appetite for reform on both sides of the aisle make this moment an opportunity for change.

I’ve tried to empower and strengthen the many voices for reform. And with a few more reformers in the General Assembly, we will break through. Reformers who pledge to vote for new leadership in the General Assembly, and hold themselves accountable to the people.

Together, through courage and understanding, we can fix our biggest problems.

Unfortunately, my opponent disagrees.

I’m committed to freezing property taxes and removing mandates from Springfield to restore decision making to the local level, to reduce property taxes over time.

Mr. Pritzker opposes a property tax freeze. And mandate relief.

I’m committed to lowering income taxes over time – as I outlined in my budget proposal this year – by enacting genuine pension reform that puts us on a sustainable path.

We can come to a compromise on the consideration model that allows hardworking state employees to choose a compensation structure that works best for them.

It’s something policy-minded Republicans and Democrats agree on – and we can do it.

Mr. Pritzker believes it’s a non-starter, and he’s proposed nearly $11 billion in new spending with another big tax hike to pay for it all.

I’m committed to creating more good-paying jobs through smart regulatory reforms like fixing the broken workers’ compensation system, which is twice as expensive in Illinois as in neighboring states, and by reducing the massive regulatory burden on our job creators.

Pritzker doesn’t think excessive regulations are an issue.

I’m committed to putting term limits on all state elected officials and agreeing to independently drawn legislative maps to end the corruption and conflicts of interest that have held Illinois back for decades.

The University of Illinois at Chicago released a study this spring that ranked Chicago as the most corrupt city in America, and Illinois the third most corrupt state.

Ask yourself why Mr. Pritzker has voiced zero concern for the corruption in our state. He might be the only person in Illinois who doesn’t think corruption is a problem.

In any other state, these reforms wouldn’t be like pulling teeth. They wouldn’t create conflict; they would be bipartisan no-brainers.

They are all things that the people of Illinois want and deserve: a government that’s more efficient, effective, and accountable to the people.

This November, Illinois voters have the chance to send a message. They can tell the political class that we refuse to go back to a system controlled by a few insiders and that we want common sense reform.

I’ve grown in office … I’ve changed. We’ve made progress. I know we can work together to get even more done.

The people of Illinois have a clear choice in November. Will we continue the hard work of reform, aimed at making this state a place where our children and grandchildren can thrive? Or will we return to the status quo: a government controlled by insiders, hellbent on hiking taxes, with little regard for the consequences felt by ordinary citizens?

I’m here to tell you the truth: Pritzker doesn’t have what it takes.

Exchanging campaign cash for political favors, and using his inherited wealth to get what he wants out of state government are not prerequisites for being governor. They’re disqualifications.

A man caught on FBI wiretap trying to buy political office from a criminally corrupt politician is not worthy of the highest office in our state.

A man who inherits billions of dollars, but hides it in offshore bank accounts in the Bahamas to avoid paying taxes, won’t work to give YOU the tax relief YOU deserve. His actions are unpatriotic. He’s not paying his fair share.

A man who ripped toilets out of his Chicago mansion to dodge his property taxes won’t work to reduce your taxes. His deceitful action just puts more burden on other property taxpayers.

What sort of person would do that?

His behavior shows him to be a person utterly lacking in the integrity and character we need in public office.

If elected, he WOULD get big things done: BIG spending, BIG tax hikes, and BIG support for self-dealing.

Imagine what another tax hike would do to your family budget. Imagine what a new tax on every mile you drive would do.

I’ve talked to dozens of families and job creators who have told me that if Pritzker gets into office, and raises taxes as he’s promised, they will leave Illinois.

My opponent doesn’t have the courage or understanding to lead. He’ll only be another insider working for the special interests and against the people.

My opponent thinks he can hide from the media, avoid their questions, and buy this election. I don’t often agree with the media, but I respect them enough to address their questions. Because that’s what you do when you serve the people.

My opponent thinks he can hide from the truth. But we won’t let him.

My opponent thinks he can rail against Washington, and make this election about what’s happening over there. But this election is about Illinois, what’s happening here, and the future of our state.

I’m not perfect, but I’ve grown … and I’m still committed to doing what’s right for Illinois.

Serious challenges require serious leaders, willing to listen and willing to do what it takes.

State government of the insiders, by the insiders, and for the insiders is destined to fail the people.

But I believe in the potential of Illinois, I believe in the people of Illinois, who make us the greatest state in the greatest nation on earth.

This election isn’t about me. It’s not about Republican vs. Democrat. It’s about the people vs. the corrupt political machine. It’s about the taxpayers and job creators vs. the insiders.

It’s about you, and finally delivering the tax relief, the jobs, and the healthy economy you deserve.

It’s about delivering the future our children and grandchildren deserve.

I humbly ask for another four years to finish the job we started, to save our state. I hope you’ll join me in our fight.

Illinois is OUR home. It’s OUR fight. And it’s OUR future on the line.

God bless you, God bless the great state of Illinois, and God bless the United States of America.

Thoughts?

…Adding… I’m posting rapid responses from the Pritzker campaign on the live coverage post.

  88 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Two new Pritzker ads ask: “Want to see what failure looks like?”

Thursday, Sep 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Today, ahead of Bruce Rauner’s desperate “reset” speech, the Pritzker campaign is releasing two new TV ads that show exactly why Bruce Rauner is trying so hard to reframe his inability to lead after four years of failure.

The ads highlight the central failure of Rauner’s tenure: the two-year budget crisis that Illinoisans are still recovering from. “736 Days” focuses on how the crisis hurt local communities by delaying funding for schools and forcing local governments to raise property taxes while “Unpaid” focuses on Rauner racking up over $10 billion in unpaid bills and wrecking state finances.

“From harming local neighborhood schools to forcing property tax hikes and tanking state debt, communities across Illinois are still reeling from Bruce Rauner’s two-year budget crisis, and no single speech can erase the fact that four years of his failure is enough,” said Pritzker campaign communications director Galia Slayen.

* “736 Days”

* Script…

Want to see what failure looks like? Because of Bruce Rauner, Illinois went 736 days without a budget, delaying funding for schools while local governments were forced to raise property taxes. Four years of failure is enough.

* “Unpaid”

* Script…

Want to see what failure looks like? When Bruce Rauner took office, Illinois had $6 billion in unpaid bills. But after Rauner’s budget crisis, we had over $16 billion. Bruce Rauner, four years of failure is enough.

A TV-watching buddy told me last night that the :15 spots were played back-to-back.

*** UPDATE *** Despite the claims by the Pritzker campaign (and the fact that I only heard about the spots last night), the Rauner campaign says the ads are not new and have been running since last Thursday.

  18 Comments      


10-15 down, tens of thousands to go

Thursday, Sep 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Finally, some results from Gov. Rauner’s European trade mission…



* Crain’s

A German cosmetics manufacturer is opening a plant in Elgin with state incentives, giving Gov. Bruce Rauner a chance to credit a trade mission he took to Germany and Poland in April.

The factory, operated by a unit of pencil maker Faber-Castell, will start with 10 to 15 employees and aim to expand to 50 within three years, a threshold for job- and investment-linked subsidies under the state’s revamped EDGE program.

The plant will make cosmetic pencils, beginning this fall.

Christina Zech, managing director of Faber-Castell Cosmetics, said other states, including Wisconsin, offered more money upfront, but Illinois won out, mainly because of its central-U.S. location and access to O’Hare International Airport. Under EDGE, companies can get a credit against income taxes equal to 50 percent of withholdings associated with each new job, up to the level of projected investment.

State economic development officials learned last summer of Faber-Castell’s interest at a Commerce Department conference in Washington, according to Mark Peterson, CEO of Intersect Illinois, a privately funded economic development office. “That set the table.” Rauner then scheduled a stop at corporate headquarters in Stein, Germany.

…Adding… Text from an African-American legislator…

All that money for eyebrow pencils. We have cosmetic companies - minority ones- who could have added ‘10-15′ employees and made these things here with just a small incentive from DCEO. He coulda saved a trip.

He pointed to Summit Labs and Luster Products as just two examples.

  19 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Pritzker campaign responds *** Rauner to offer up his “vision for the future of Illinois” this afternoon… right after crossing a picket line

Thursday, Sep 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This media advisory was supposed to be for planning purposes only, but I saw two mentions of it in other publications this morning, so here you go…

Governor Rauner will deliver a speech framing the gubernatorial election. The speech will cover lessons learned in the first term, the contrast between Governor Rauner and his opponent, and the governor’s vision for the future of Illinois.

The speech begins at 2 o’clock this afternoon at the Hilton Chicago on South Michigan Ave.

He’s also speaking this morning to the Civic Federation’s board. I’ll try to let you know if he previews his afternoon address.

Anyway, predictions?

…Adding… Sigh…



The list of hotels hit by the strike is here.

…Adding… DAGA moved its fall conference to avoid crossing picket lines…

In response to the Democratic Attorneys General Association (DAGA) moving its Fall Quarterly Policy Program Conference from the JW Marriott to another location in Chicago to show support for workers, UNITE HERE and UNITE HERE Local 1 applauded the Democratic Attorneys General Association for its commitment to supporting workers.

“We applaud the decision of the Democratic Attorneys General Association to stand by the thousands of hospitality workers in Chicago and move their conference site,” said Karen Kent, President of Unite Here Local 1. “We are proud of our members who are making their voices heard this week in Chicago—and we are proud of the Democratic Attorneys General Association for listening.”

Thousands of Chicago hotel housekeepers, servers, cooks and doormen have stopped working and are on strike for year-round healthcare, workloads that keep them healthy, and wages that keep up with the cost of raising a family. Hotel workers are on strike at 26 downtown convention and boutique hotels. Some of the affected hotels include the Hyatt Regency Chicago, JW Marriott, Sheraton Grand, and Hilton Chicago. Union contracts with UNITE HERE Local 1 expired on August 31, 2018.

I’ve heard they haven’t moved the rooms, however. We’ll see.

…Adding… I’m told he didn’t break any new ground at the Civic Federation this morning. “Rauner’s greatest bits” was one explanation. So, we wait for the afternoon speech.

*** UPDATE *** Pritzker campaign…

With 54 days until election day, Bruce Rauner is desperately trying to reframe his inability to lead after four years of failure.

While nothing can undo his damage done, if Bruce Rauner truly wants to take responsibility for his failures, here are five questions he can answer for voters today:

    Was your two year budget crisis worth it?

    You underperformed your predecessor, so does that make you the same “miserable failure on jobs” you called him?

    After enrollment in state colleges and universities plummeted by 72,000 students on your watch, do you regret proposing cuts to higher ed and slashing funding for MAP grants?

    Why haven’t you protected Illinoisans with pre-existing conditions from losing their healthcare coverage to Trump’s attacks?

    After 14 Veterans and spouses died on your watch, do you still think your administration did ‘an excellent job’ in Quincy?

“Bruce Rauner is a failed governor who has spent four years wreaking havoc on communities across the state, and nothing Rauner says will undo his damage done,” said Pritzker campaign spokeswoman Jordan Abudayyeh. “A speech can’t erase four years of failure, a ‘reset’ can’t save a flailing campaign, and the same failed governor can’t convince anyone that another term will be any different than the last.”

  44 Comments      


*** LIVE COVERAGE ***

Thursday, Sep 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive


  Comments Off      


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