* From the Betsy Dirksen Londrigan campaign…
Today, nonpartisan forecasters at Cook Political Report upgraded Betsy Dirksen Londrigan’s chances of winning in IL-13, shifting their rating of the race from Likely Republican to just Lean Republican. Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman specifically cited Londrigan’s strong candidacy and her focus on the issue of health care as reasons why the race is becoming more competitive.
“This confirms what we are already seeing on the ground here in central Illinois: Betsy is exciting voters and making this a race through her hard work and her focus on issues that matter to Illinois families every day, like protecting their access to affordable health care,” said Kate Martucci, Londrigan’s campaign manager.
Here’s what Dave Wasserman had to say about the IL-13 rating change:
In 2011, Illinois Democrats tried to draw the 13th to elect one of their own by connecting the disparate college towns of Champaign-Urbana, Bloomington-Normal and Edwardsville with union-heavy cities like Decatur and the state capital of Springfield. But since 2012, GOP Rep. Rodney Davis has defied that creative cartography, winning reelection by comfortable margins.
Davis has succeeded in part because he’s an affable, energetic member who eschews heated rhetoric, works diligently on the Agriculture Committee and chairs the moderate Republican Main Street Partnership. He’s also benefited from Downstate Illinois’s drift away from national Democrats: in 2008, the 13th CD gave Barak Obama 55 percent. In 2016, President Trump carried it by six points and Davis won it by 19.
But, this is the kind of seat that could be problematic for Republicans in a wave, and Democrats have a credible candidate in Springfield fundraising consultant Betsy Dirksen Londrigan. Londrigan can’t definitively trace her ancestry to late Illinois GOP Sen. Everett Dirksen, but in March she defeated four primary opponents with 46 percent of the vote and has raised over $1 million to date.
For a first-time candidate, Londrigan has spent an above-average amount of time around politics: she helped her husband ran (unsuccessfully) for state senate over a decade ago and she’s raised money professionally for Sen. Dick Durbin and the Lincoln Presidential Library Foundation. She’ll talk about her grandparents’ farm and opposition to tariffs to try to build appeal in the 13th CD’s soy-heavy rural counties.
It won’t be easy for Democrats to portray Davis as a Trump lackey; he rescinded his support of Trump in October 2016 after Access Hollywood. But Londrigan says Davis’s 2017 vote to repeal the ACA is what motivated her to run against the “Trump/Davis agenda.” She’ll use the personal story of her son’s life threatening tick bite in 2009 to illustrate her commitment to affordable health coverage.
To win, Democrats will need to convince voters that behind Davis’s likable demeanor lurks a voting record out of step with the district. And the more GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner looks doomed to defeat, the more plausible Londrigan’s path could become. Davis remains the favorite, but the race moves from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
Londrigan’s campaign is gonna have to convince every possible African-American and college student to vote this November. And students, especially, don’t usually vote much during off-year cycles.
* In other Downstate congressional campaign news…
Vice President Mike Pence is scheduled to stop in O’Fallon next week for a fundraiser for U.S. Rep. Mike Bost.
The event is scheduled for 2:30 to 3:30 p.m. Thursday at the O’Fallon Regency Conference Center, said Dustin Rhodes, the campaign manager for Bost, a Murphysboro Republican. The event is closed to the press.
…Adding… Oops. I forgot about this. Bost got pwned…
* Related…
* Election 2018: Story-lines emerging: Now the second-most-expensive congressional race in the state outside of Chicago, the fight between U.S. Rep. RODNEY DAVIS, R-Taylorville, and Democratic challenger BETSY LONDRIGAN has ballooned into a $2.6 million affair. Londrigan has spent about $557,000 of the $779,000 she has raised; Davis has spent $886,571 of $1.8 million.
* Rodney Davis: Keep politics out of Supreme Court confirmation process
* Getting NGA to abandon St. Louis site would require a ‘game-changer,’ expert says
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* You may have already heard about today’s federal indictments, but there’s at least one and maybe more Illinois angle, including the Russian hacking of the State Board of Elections. From Deputy Attorney General Rod J. Rosenstein’s statement today…
Today, a federal grand jury in the District of Columbia returned an indictment presented by the Special Counsel’s Office. The indictment charges twelve Russian military officers for conspiring to interfere with the 2016 presidential election.
Eleven of the defendants are charged with conspiring to hack into computers, steal documents, and release documents in an effort to interfere with the election.
One of those defendants, and a twelfth Russian officer, are charged with conspiring to infiltrate computers of organizations responsible for administering elections, including state boards of election, secretaries of state, and companies that supply software and other technology used to administer elections.
According to the allegations in the indictment, the defendants worked for two units of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Russian General Staff, known as the GRU. The units engaged in active cyber operations to interfere in the 2016 presidential election. One GRU unit worked to steal information, while another unit worked to disseminate stolen information. […]
In a second, related conspiracy, Russian GRU officers hacked the website of a state election board and stole information about 500,000 voters. They also hacked into computers of a company that supplied software used to verify voter registration information; targeted state and local offices responsible for administering the elections; and sent spearphishing emails to people involved in administering elections, with malware attached.
* From the indictment…
The object of the conspiracy was to hack into protected computers of persons and entities charged with the administration of the 2016 U.S. elections in order to access those computers and steal voter data and other information stored on those computers. Manner and Means of the Conspiracy
In or around June 2016, KOVALEV and his co-conspirators researched domains used by US. state boards of elections, secretaries of state, and other election-related entities for website vulnerabilities. KOVALEV and his co-conspirators also searched for state political party email addresses, including filtered queries for email addresses listed on state Republican Party websites.
* And…
a. For example, on or about April 22, 2016, the Conspirators compressed gigabytes of data from DNC computers, including opposition research. The Conspirators later moved the compressed DNC data using X-Tunnel to a GRU-leased computer located in Illinois.
b. On or about April 28, 2016, the Conspirators connected to and tested the same computer located in Illinois. Later that day, the Conspirators used X-Tunnel to connect to that computer to steal additional documents from the network.
…Adding… From Matt Dietrich at the Illinois State Board of Elections…
I’m going through the indictment now. We have had no contact with the DOJ on this and did not know it was coming.
*** UPDATE 1 *** We’re about to find out if the ISBE knows any details…
*** UPDATE 2 *** “We think it’s very likely,” Matt Dietrich just told reporters, that the Illinois State Board of Election is the “SBOE 1″ described in the federal indictment. From the indictment…
In or around July 2016, KOVALEV and his co-conspirators hacked the website of a state board of elections and stole information related to approximately 500,000 voters, including names, addresses, partial social security numbers, dates of birth, and driver’s license numbers.
In or around August 2016, KOVALEV and his co-conspirators hacked into the computers of a U.S. vendor that supplied software used to verify voter registration information for the 2016 U.S. elections. KOVALEV and his co-conspirators used some of the same infrastructure to hack into Vendor 1 that they had used to hack into SBOE 1.
In or around August 2016, the Federal Bureau of Investigation issued an alert about the hacking of SBOE 1 and identified some of the infrastructure that was used to conduct the hacking. In response, KOVALEV deleted his search history. KOVALEV and his co-conspirators also deleted records from accounts used in their operations targeting state boards of elections and similar election-related entities.
*** UPDATE 3 *** The Board of Elections press release is here.
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* Greg Hinz…
Maybe there are some special reasons in this case. But for a guy who has kept his distance from Donald Trump, Gov. Bruce Rauner sure seems to be cozying up lately—at least a little bit—to a president the polls say isn’t very popular in Illinois.
* Daily Herald…
U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam is skipping Vice President Mike Pence’s appearance Friday in Rosemont — planning to be in Washington to take votes instead — but Gov. Bruce Rauner will be at the event to introduce Pence, officials confirmed Thursday.
Pence is expected to headline a fundraiser for Roskam and other Republicans in the area
Um. OK. Roskam isn’t showing for a fundraiser for… Roskam?
* Sun-Times…
Usually a Republican governor introducing a Republican Vice President wouldn’t be worthy of highlighting in the first paragraph. In this case it is, because Rauner has gone to some effort – until lately – to distance himself from President Donald Trump.
What’s changed? Rauner needs to repair relations with the Republican base in Illinois as he battles J.B. Pritzker, the Democratic nominee for governor.
But repairing relations with that base comes with consequences.
* DGA…
It’s only halfway through July, but for Governor Bruce Rauner, this summer has all been about President Donald Trump. The Chicago Sun-Times now reports that Rauner will introduce Vice President Mike Pence at a Chicago-area rally promoting Trump’s economic policies and performing “damage control” for the administration’s trade policy.
For Rauner, it’s just another day in his summer of Trump. Over the past few weeks, Rauner praised Trump’s Supreme Court nominee this week and flew to Washington for a “photo op” with Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao announcing an already-announced infrastructure grant. At the same time, a Super PAC affiliated with Trump’s Illinois backers began running ads propping up the vulnerable incumbent. And all the while, Rauner has kept on praising Trump’s handling of the economy.
“It’s the summer of Trump for Bruce Rauner,” said DGA Illinois Communications Director Sam Salustro. “All summer, Rauner has been moving from silently supporting Donald Trump’s agenda to outright embracing his administration. For Illinoisans concerned with how Trump’s policies are hurting their families, Rauner’s just finding a new way to fail them all over again.”
* Tribune…
The governor’s decision to introduce Pence in Rosemont drew criticism from Democratic challenger J.B. Pritzker, who previously has labeled the Republican governor a “silent partner” to Trump.
“Rauner has spent the last few months cozying up to Donald Trump, praising his policies, and getting support from his top Illinois fundraiser’s SuperPAC, but now he’s taking their partnership to the next level by campaigning with his VP,” the Pritzker campaign said in a statement. The campaign was referring to Pritzker attack ads being run by a PAC formerly headed by Ron Gidwitz, Trump’s Illinois campaign finance chair and now U.S. ambassador to Belgium.
“While Rauner ranges from Trump’s silent partner to his proud, vocal supporter, campaigning with Trump’s VP brings their alliance to new heights,” Pritzker spokesman Jason Rubin said.
* And here’s something brand new in the world of DPI: A protest led by its new interim executive director…
Today, Democratic Party of Illinois Executive Director Christian Mitchell will lead a protest against Mike Pence, Bruce Rauner, Peter Roskam, and their attacks on Illinois communities.
WHO: Democratic Party of Illinois Executive Director Christian Mitchell, Illinois Democratic Women, Citizen Action Illinois, Indivisible Chicago, Indivisible Illinois, Women’s March Illinois, Gather Activism, UFCW Local 881, ATU Local 308, Planned Parenthood Illinois Action, Personal PAC, and SEIU Healthcare.
*** UPDATE *** Sam McCann’s campaign was passing out this flier at the protest today…
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