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*** UPDATED x1 - Parkhurst responds *** Kankakee state’s attorney opens voter fraud investigation in Rep. Cloonen race

Tuesday, Oct 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

From the Office of Jamie Boyd, Kankakee County State’s Attorney
Date: October 4, 2016
For Immediate Release:
Re: Election Fraud

The Kankakee County State’s Attorney’s Office has opened an investigation into voter fraud. This unprecedented action was taken in response to reports of individuals from Chicago offering gifts to potential voters in exchange for a vote for Kate Cloonen, Hillary Clinton and others. Our office takes seriously the obligation to protect the rights of citizens to vote for the candidate of their choice, and to do so without undue influence from special interest groups. The investigation will also focus on the authenticity of vote by mail requests. Several applications have been filed with the election authority that appear to be fraudulently executed. These documents were also filed by people who are not voters in Kankakee County.

As a result of the information we currently have, and in an effort to end the ongoing practices aimed at illegally gaining a victory for specific candidates changes have been made to the processes. Effective immediately no “I voted” stickers will be issued to voters. This will end the practice of vote purchasers using the stickers as proof of voting. A register has been created to keep track of all individuals dropping off “vote by mail” applications so that contact information is available if questions arise regarding any applications.

Local police departments have been advised of the ongoing investigation, and are prepared to assist in the event of continued questionable activity. The Kankakee County Clerk will continue to vigilantly enforce the electioneering rules during the early voting and grace period voting in an effort to insure the integrity of the election process.

We are asking the public to contact our office with any information they are aware of regarding these or other questionable activities during this election season. We are especially hopeful that if someone is offered any gift in exchange for voting that our office will be notified immediately so that we may prosecute the offenders.

Cloonen has won her last two general election races by an average of about 100 votes each. So, this is huge.

I’ve asked the House Democrats for a response.

*** UPDATE *** Rep. Cloonen’s Republican opponent Lindsay Parkhurst…

“These reports of voter fraud in Kankakee are incredibly disturbing. Fair and honest elections are the bedrock of our democracy. It is truly deplorable when people try to corrupt our system in this manner. I call on Kate Cloonen to denounce these actions and confirm to the public that no one affiliated with her campaign had any knowledge or involvement with these alleged crimes.”

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Fun with numbers

Tuesday, Oct 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Mark Kirk campaign…

Duckworth Supports $60 Billion Spending Increase For Free Community College

At the Chicago Tribune Editorial Board Debate yesterday, Rep. Duckworth said she wants free community college but could not answer how much it would cost when asked by editorial board members.

Well, we found out how much it would cost: $60 billion dollars.

“Rep. Duckworth has advocated for a new entitlement program without even knowing the cost of it, so we helped her with the research. Duckworth’s plan would cost taxpayers $60 billion,” said Kirk For Senate campaign manager Kevin Artl. “As Senator Kirk said yesterday that while he wants to spend less, tax less and borrow less, Rep. Duckworth wants to spend more, tax more and borrow more, and that is the most important contrast for voters heading into November.”

Except that $60 billion is the projected cost over 10 years.

* And no word yet on how much this would cost…

Kirk, a retired Navy intelligence officer, said he wants the U.S. to create a safe haven for Syrian refugees in Jordan, with the help of the Jordanian government.

Duckworth said the idea “doesn’t even make sense” and would require “a massive increase in U.S. forces.”

“We can’t just be a nation that continually sends troops to war,” she said.

…Adding… Duckworth actually disclosed the cost in a press release at the end of yesterday’s debate…

Rapid Response #9: Tammy Duckworth Would Pay For Tuition-Free Community College By Closing Corporate Tax Loopholes
Today, Kirk Called Tuition-Free Community College For Deserving Students An “Entitlement”

CHICAGO —Tammy Duckworth has proposed how she would pay for her plan to make college more affordable: by closing a tax loophole that allows unlimited write-offs for executive bonuses, by closing the Carried Interest loophole, and by enacting the Buffet Rule to ensure millionaires pay their fair share. She would use the revenue to fully pay for the $60 billion cost of tuition-free community college for deserving students, in addition to making student loans more affordable and strengthening Pell grants.

Republican Mark Kirk on the other hand, today called tuition-free community college an “entitlement.” Tammy Duckworth considers it an investment in our future.

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*** UPDATED x2 *** Poll: Clinton, Duckworth leading bigly

Tuesday, Oct 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* More data from that Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll…

Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by an overwhelming 53 percent to 28 percent margin among likely voters in the 2016 race for president in Illinois, according to a new poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.

Libertarian Gary Johnson garnered 5 percent and the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, received 2 percent support. Nine percent said they remained undecided at this point.

The poll was conducted in the week after the first debate starting on Tuesday, September 27 and ending on Sunday, October 2. The sample included 1,000 registered voters, 865 of whom said they were likely voters. The likely voter sample has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

The poll also showed:

*Republican Senator Mark Kirk trailing his challenger, Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth. This race showed Duckworth with a lead of 48 percent to Kirk’s 34 percent among likely voters. The Libertarian candidate, Kent McMillen, received the support of 3 percent of the respondents while 2 percent said they would vote for the Green Party candidate, Scott Summers, and 10 percent remained undecided. […]

The poll showed Clinton winning by 67 percent to Trump’s 19 percent in the City of Chicago where Democratic candidates usually do well while Trump is more competitive downstate where the candidates are essentially tied (Trump 40 percent to Clinton’s 39 percent). Suburban Cook and the collar counties are where the balance of power resides in Illinois and Clinton is winning there by about 30 percentage points (Clinton 56 percent to Trump 25 percent).

In the U.S. Senate race, the geographic breakdown is 61 percent for Duckworth in the city of Chicago to 26 percent for Kirk. In suburban Cook and the collar counties, 51 percent plan to vote for Duckworth compared to 31 percent for Kirk. Downstate Kirk is winning with 44 percent compared to Duckworth’s 36 percent.

Discuss.

*** UPDATE 1 *** This Duckworth poll and all the other polls we’ve seen lately explain this move…

NEWS: The @dscc cancels $2.9M in spending from Oct. 17 to Oct. 24 in three states: Florida, Wisconsin and Illinois. https://t.co/BIM7lfllT2

— Kevin Robillard (@PoliticoKevin) October 3, 2016

*** UPDATE 2 *** FiveThirtyEight now has Duckworth’s chances of winning at 87.3 percent.

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Poll: 55 percent disapprove of Rauner, but 63 percent disapprove of Madigan

Tuesday, Oct 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute has a new poll out. Let’s start with approval ratings for the governor and the two chamber leaders…

The advertising in many of the 2016 legislative campaigns in Illinois has focused largely on three people who are not on the ballot, that is, Governor Bruce Rauner, Speaker of the House Michael Madigan, and Senate President John Cullerton. The poll asked whether the respondents approved or disapproved of the job each was doing.

The results for Rauner show that his job approval ratings are underwater with 40 percent somewhat approving or strongly approving and 55 percent somewhat disapproving or strongly disapproving of the job he is doing.

However, the governor is more popular downstate where he is somewhat closer to positive territory with 45 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving of the job he is doing. In the suburban areas, Rauner is in negative territory with 55 percent disapproving and 39 percent approving.

The Governor’s biggest problem is in the City of Chicago where his disapproval outnumbers starkly overtake his approval (62 percent to 34 percent).

Speaker Madigan’s overall job approval ratings are also in negative territory with 63 percent somewhat disapproving or strongly disapproving and 26 percent somewhat approving or strongly approving.

Madigan’s best job approval ratings are in the City of Chicago where the ratings are 32 percent approve and 56 percent disapprove. His suburban Cook and collar county job approval ratings are 28 percent approve to 59 percent disapprove. Downstate yields the harshest assessment of the Speaker’s tenure with 73 percent disapproving and 20 percent approving.

In the recent negative ads wars, Senate President John Cullerton has not been the lightning rod that the Speaker has. There are 41 percent who disapprove or strongly disapprove of Cullerton’s performance while 26 percent approve and 29 percent aren’t sure.

* Notice the intensity of “strongly disapprove” on Gov. Rauner…

* Now compare that same intensity to Speaker Madigan’s ratings…

Yikes.

* And here’s Cullerton…

* OK, now on to Rauner by region…

* Compare that to Madigan by region…

Keep in mind that Madigan has a bunch of Downstate races where he has incumbents and some much-ballyhooed challengers.

Oof.

* Methodology…

The margin of error for the entire sample of 1,000 voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error for likely voters (n=865) is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. This means that if we conducted the survey 100 times, in 95 of those instances, the population proportion would be within plus or minus the reported margin for error for each subsample. For subsamples, the margin of error increases as the sample size goes down. The margin of error was not adjusted for design effects.

Live telephone interviews were conducted by Customer Research International of San Marcos, Texas using the random digit dialing method. The telephone sample was provided to Customer Research International by Scientific Telephone Samples. Potential interviewees were screened based on whether they were registered voters and quotas based on area code and sex (<60% female). Interviewers asked to speak to the youngest registered voter at home at the time of the call. Cell phone interviews accounted for 60 percent of the sample. A Spanish language version of the questionnaire and a Spanish-speaking interviewer were made available.

Field work was conducted from September 27-October 2. No auto-dial or “robo” polling is included. Customer Research International reports no Illinois political clients. The survey was paid for with non-tax dollars from the Institute’s endowment fund. The data were not weighted in any way. Crosstabs for the referenced questions will be on the Institute’s polling web site, simonpoll.org.

More results in a bit.

…Adding… Some folks in comments are completely missing the point. Yes, Madigan doesn’t have to run statewide. No duh. But he has become the major “issue” in House campaigns throughout the state. If the House Democrats had a presidential or other statewide type polling as badly as Madigan is, they’d be running away from that person as fast as humanly possible in order to avoid being dragged down by him/her. But the Dems can’t run away from Madigan because that’s where they get their money.

Same goes for the Republicans, by the way. Not many viable House Republican candidates/incumbents are cheering on Gov. Rauner. He’s definitely a drag. He’s just not as big of a drag yet as Madigan.

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