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*** UPDATED x2 *** Is Preckwinkle toast?

Thursday, Aug 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Cook County registered voters poll by We Ask America

In general, do you APPROVE, or DISAPPROVE of the job Cook County President Toni Preckwinkle is doing?

    Approve 21.12%
    Disapprove 67.98%
    No opinion 10.90%

Do you AGREE, or DISAGREE with the following statement: “I will probably vote to re-elect Toni Preckwinkle as County Board President no matter who is running against her.”

    Yes 16.18%
    No 75.06%
    Unsure 8.76%

Does that fact that Toni Preckwinkle cast the deciding vote that created the Cook County beverage tax make you MORE LIKELY or LESS LIKELY to vote to re-elect her?

    More likely to re elect 10.00%
    Less likely to re elect 84.49%
    No difference 5.51%

Wow.

* Greg Hinz

If the survey is right, Preckwinkle’s personal numbers are almost as bad as those for her penny-an-ounce tax on sweetened beverages. […]

“President Preckwinkle is solely focused on navigating the county through tough economic circumstances and leading on behalf of the people of Cook County,” Preckwinkle political aide Scott Kastrup said in a statement. “Her strong record of reforming county government, improving access to healthcare, protecting public safety services and standing up to special interests are why she has broad support across the county and why she’s in strong position to win-re-election next year.” […]

Crosstabs indicate there is little variation among racial and ethnic groups about Preckwinkle and her tax. For instance, disapproval of her job performance ranges from 65 percent among whites and 67 percent among African Americans to 81 percent among Latinos. […]

The only figure now known to be actively considering a race against Preckwinkle in next year’s elections is fellow commissioner Richard Boykin, a Democrat who represents the West Side and western suburbs including Oak Park.

You can’t beat somebody with nobody, so we’ll see if she gets an opponent. And maybe the furor will die down, or maybe it won’t. But these county numbers are worse than a recent statewide poll of Donald Trump’s and Bruce Rauner’s approval ratings.

* Methodology

This poll was conducted from August 15 through August 16, 2017 using both automated (recorded) and live operator-initiated calls cell phones. In all, 902 registered voters completed all questions on the poll; 450 of the responses came from cell phones. The voters dialed were randomly selected from a proprietary registered-voter database of likely voters to assure the greatest chance of providing an accurate cross-section of opinion from the county-wide sample. No weighting formulas were applied to correct any over- and under-sampling.

MoE is ±3.26%. Crosstabs are here.

*** UPDATE 1 ***  Tribune

Cook County officials say they’ve solved a problem with the new sweetened beverage tax that put roughly $87 million in funding used to run the federal food stamp program in Illinois at risk of being withheld. […]

The county solved the issue by striking language permitting refunds from the regulation, which “will ensure ongoing access of SNAP benefits for eligible Illinois households,” county spokesman Frank Shuftan said in a statement Thursday.

The USDA confirmed that the county notified the agency that it had corrected the issue.

*** UPDATE 2 *** ILGOP…

Cook County is fed up with politics as usual from Toni Preckwinkle. A shocking poll out today finds that there is overwhelming opposition to Preckwinkle’s signature tax - nearly 7 in 10 registered Cook County voters oppose her soda tax.

But where does J.B. Pritzker stand? So far, all we’ve heard is silence from the normally talkative billionaire.

Could it be that Pritzker’s ties to the Cook County machine prevent him from speaking out?

Could it be that Pritzker is just so thankful for the Cook County Democratic Party’s endorsement that he refuses to take on their reckless members and stand up for taxpayers?

Or maybe running mate Juliana Stratton is stopping Pritzker from doing the right thing – since she’s a “member of Ms. Preckwinkle’s inner circle” and her “protégé”.

Either way, Pritzker’s silence says it all - he’s okay with massive tax hikes that threaten to take millions in federal funding away from those in need.

  69 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Pritzker responds *** Moody’s issues warning on school funding impasse

Thursday, Aug 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Moody’s has issued a short report on the failure of the State of Illinois (rated Baa3/negative outlook) to distribute the first payment of FY 2018 general state aid to its school districts. This action is credit negative for those districts, and will weigh most heavily on those with significant dependence on state aid and lower cash reserves. The lapsed distribution follows the state’s failure to adopt a new state aid funding formula, as required by the state’s fiscal 2018 budget bill, enacted on July 6. The state’s distribution of grants owed to districts from the previous year somewhat mitigates the delay, but the effects will grow if the impasse continues.

While Illinois’ FY 2018 budget increases school district funding, it makes the distribution contingent on the state’s adoption of an “evidence-based funding” model. On August 1, Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner issued an amendatory veto of Senate Bill 1 (SB 1), which would have created the model required by the budget bill. A three-fifths majority in the legislature is required to adopt his amendments, override his veto or pass another bill to change the formula. On August 13, the Senate passed on override of the veto. The House came back into session on August 16, but has yet to act on an override.

Moody’s rates 256 school districts in Illinois. We expect 5-20 of these will have deteriorated credit within months because they may use cash reserves or borrow to cushion effects from the state aid delay. The delay will harm more districts if the impasse extends for several months. However, districts that source less than 10% of annual revenue from state aid, approximately 100 of rated school districts, would likely weather even a funding delay that lasts a year or longer with minimal effect on their reserves and credit profile. Illinois districts with lower property wealth or higher poverty tend to rely much more heavily on state aid.

Among Moody’s-rated Illinois school districts, 17 received more than 40% of revenue from state operating aid, while an additional 32 relied on aid for 30%-40% of revenue. However, many of those districts carry very high cash balances. Illinois school districts across the rating scale tend to hold higher cash reserves compared with school districts in other states.

*** UPDATE ***  Pritzker campaign…

After Bruce Rauner’s school funding veto caused the state to miss its first payment to public schools across the state, Moody’s warns that dozens of schools may see “deteriorated credit within months.” The ratings agency says Rauner’s failure on school funding leaves public schools with a “credit negative” outlook, meaning downgrades could be right around the corner starting with low-income and high-poverty districts.

This new warning from Moody’s comes just a day after Rauner’s school funding plan received zero votes in the House and two weeks after Fitch said Rauner’s veto could cause more credit downgrades at state colleges and universities.

“Public school kids in low-income districts are being shoved aside by Bruce Rauner, even after he couldn’t get a single vote on his school funding plan,” said Pritzker campaign spokeswoman Jordan Abudayyeh. “This failed governor should be ashamed of himself for putting the education of our kids in jeopardy while he pursues a devastating plan that has zero support.”

  13 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Water is wet and Jesse White is running again

Thursday, Aug 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Perhaps the least surprising news of the day, but maybe the only actual news generated

Secretary of State Jesse White will announce Thursday he intends to run for a sixth term, his team confirmed.

The announcement comes at Democrat Day at the Illinois State Fair where the eight candidates seeking the governor’s post will be front and center.

White, 83, is a top vote-getter. He had said at Democrat Day in 2015 that he would not run again, but he has since rethought that decision.

Political insiders believe if White had decided to bow out, that would have shifted the focus and campaign funds from the governor’s post to the highly sought-after job of secretary of state.

*** UPDATE ***  Secretary White just made it official. “I am your man and I will be at my duty station every day.”

  30 Comments      


Cartoon removed, racism denied

Thursday, Aug 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Public Radio

Members of the Illinois House of Representatives twice expressed unanimous opposition Wednesday to expressions of racial animus.

In an official 105-0 vote, the House adopted a resolution — sponsored by Rep. Elgie Sims, D-Chicago, and Rep. David McSweeney, R-Barrington Hills — which vilifies white supremacists. The proclamation specifically “repudiates and condemns'’ neo-Nazis, the Ku Klux Klan and others that “espouse hate.'’

The vote was a response to incidents in Charlottesville, Va., last weekend, where a woman was killed and 19 injured when a man plowed his car into a group of counterdemonstrators at a rally of white supremacists protesting the removal of a statue of Robert E. Lee.

…Adding… Rep. Dave McSweeney’s floor speech

* More background is here. From the Sun-Times

An emotional state Rep. Jaime Andrade brought lawmakers to their feet on Wednesday in denouncing an Illinois Policy Institute cartoon that depicted a young African-American boy from Chicago begging for money for school from a wealthy white man with half-empty pockets.

The North Side Democrat denounced the cartoon as “s—,” prompting Democrats to rise to give him a standing ovation, with Republicans quickly joining in.

The conservative think tank defended the cartoon, arguing it was not racist, but late Wednesday took it down from the organization’s website, saying the controversy was a distraction from the real issue, “the failure of political leaders to address the root cause of our struggling education system.” […]

State Rep. Tom Demmer, R-Dixon, also joined in on the debate on Twitter: “Cartoons don’t make racism any more palatable @illinoispolicy should delete their cartoon and apologize. That has no place in policy debate.”

* Tribune

Rep. Jaime Andrade, D-Chicago, raised the issue on the House floor Wednesday, asking his colleagues to stand in opposition, saying the representation in the cartoon was “unacceptable.”

“People forget that I am a minority, maybe because I move my hands and think I’m Italian, I don’t know. But this… this is just unacceptable,” Andrade said. “This unbelievable that we, today, in 2017, are still dealing with this s—.. Because that’s what it is.” […]

The Chicago-based advocacy organization, which has counted Rauner among its donors, has been a key player in efforts to promote conservative ideology in Illinois. The group recently took on an even higher profile after Rauner replaced several of his top aides with policy institute staffers.

Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan said he had not seen the cartoon, but noted Rauner’s decision to formally bring the organization into his administration.

* John Tillman press release…

“The Illinois Policy Institute recently published a cartoon to address the sad reality that TIF districts rob Illinois children – including children of color – of the funds necessary for their education. The price our children pay for this misgovernance is steep.

“Some lawmakers are denouncing our cartoon. We respect these lawmakers, both as representatives of their constituencies and as bearers of their own experiences and perceptions, and we acknowledge their critique.

“But our cartoon told the truth: TIFs take away money from all students, and disproportionately harm students of color. We stand by that fact. And we have long fought to help all students get access to better educational opportunities. TIF prevents that.

“We have taken down the cartoon, not because we think it is racist, but because it is a distraction from another truth – the failure of political leaders to address the root cause of our struggling education system. We stand ready to work with all elected officials and advocates who would like to see TIF money properly refocused on students across the state.

“Finally, what we find sad, and frankly offensive, is that in a world where so much real, harmful racism exists, political leaders are using the false charge of racism in an attempt to smear policy opponents and distract the people of Illinois from politicians’ failures.

“This is a distraction from the most important task at hand in the Statehouse: Ensuring equitable education funding for all Illinois students.”

  45 Comments      


*** LIVE *** Democrat Day coverage

Thursday, Aug 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive


  2 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** No “Yes” votes as House show trial results in public defeat for Rauner

Wednesday, Aug 16, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* House Republicans were advised to either vote “No” or “Present” on the legislation, which contains the same language as the governor’s SB1 amendatory veto…

An “up” day?

* From the House committee hearing earlier today

Rep. Jeanne Ives, R-Wheaton, questioned the superintendents’ prediction of a loss of state money under Rauner’s version, saying the Illinois State Board of Eduction has not produced any numbers to back up those claims.

“Nobody knows what the numbers will be in 2020,” Ives said.

At one point, she asked a group of education officials testifying before the committee a question, and Ralph Martire, executive director of the liberal Center for Tax and Budget Accountability, leaned in to talk to the panel.

Ives said Martire’s offered counsel was an indication that members of the panel could not answer questions on their own. That prompted a rebuke from Davis, who said the comment was insulting and that panelists are allowed to consult with advocates and lobbyists.

“Is this really what it’s deteriorating to in state government? Really?” Canton Superintendent Rolf Siversten asked Ives. “You are embarrassing yourself.”

*** UPDATE ***  Finke

Republican legislative leaders said Wednesday they’ll be meeting with [the two Democratic legislative leaders] in Chicago Friday to attempt a compromise on the school funding reform issue. […]

“I think Senate Bill 1 is dead,” said Senate Republican Leader Bill Brady of Bloomington. “It was a poor attempt to ram a Democratic proposal through the process.” […]

“The governor’s involvement would be beneficial,” Brady said when asked if Rauner should be part of talks. “I don’t know that it’s necessary at this point. I think the four of us need to come together.”

  80 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Mayor Emanuel weighs in *** Illinois Policy Institute hammered for “Sambo cartoon”

Wednesday, Aug 16, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Uh-oh…


No location? The kid is wearing a Cubs hat.

If you click here and read the mentions, the reaction was pretty harsh. And the Radical Candor IL account fired off a sharp projectile.

* Rep. Christian Mitchell (D-Chicago) threw down…


Not to mention that TIF districts don’t take money from black and brown kids.

* Rep. Mitchell then went on a tweet tirade. He posted much of it to his Facebook page

PI: I’m going to do this in a series of tweets, so please bear with me. First: we have had a series of policy disagreements. That’s expected.

But I am extraordinarily disappointed in your organization and your leadership for the way you’re handling this situation.

1st) I disagree with your point, but that is not the issue here. You could have drawn a CPS building, You could have put CPS on the cap. You could have drawn another kid. You could have drawn an african american child without exaggerated features (ie lips), like the white male in the same photo. But you made a different choice, one that links to a dark and troubled history, and when confronted with it, decided to double down. It’s a choice, but not a great one.

2nd) A group whose staff looks like a Trump Org. photo, with minimal front facing diversity, a group who sued to block same day voter registration, with a disproportionate impact on minority voters, a group whose budget book slashed programs with a disparate minority impact, a group who is right now, despite data and evidence, attempting to take $500 million from predominately poor, minority kids around the state, Lacks both the credibility and should, in theory, have too much shame, to be the arbiter of what is fair to black kids in Chicago. You have made your choice. But understand that that choice - especially this week - is incredibly tone deaf and provocative.

…Adding… The cartoon was the topic of House floor debate today…


*** UPDATE ***  Mayor Emanuel…

“At the same time the President of the United States is throwing his arms around neo-Nazis and Klansmen, Governor Rauner’s brain trust at the Illinois Policy Institute weighed in on the SB1 debate by publishing an unambiguously racist cartoon. The critical debate over education funding in this state should be about ensuring a better future for students in every corner of Illinois, regardless of race, income or zip code – and not as an opportunity to divide us further. It’s particularly frustrating because CPS students are making historic academic gains. In fact, three CPS high schools were recently recognized among the top 10 in the country, and seven of the top 10 in the state. Over the past five years, virtually all of Illinois’ academic progress is attributable to Chicago’s students.

We’d call upon the Governor to use his influence as IPI’s largest funder and alumni-employer to demand this tasteless cartoon be taken down, but what’s the point? Instead, it provides a useful window into his outlook and determination to continue punishing poor and minority children instead of grasping the opportunity in front of him to right decades of unfair and unequal funding for school districts across Illinois. What a disgrace.”

  88 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - DGA responds *** Rauner campaign launches two new TV ads

Wednesday, Aug 16, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Today, Citizens for Rauner Inc. released two new television ads highlighting the benefits of Bruce Rauner’s plan to reform Illinois’ education funding system.

The changes proposed by Governor Rauner provide more funding than SB1 to 98% percent of Illinois school districts, with an emphasis on making sure those funds go where they are most needed: the classroom.

The Governor has made it clear that he is open to compromise, and is trying to work with legislators to ensure fair and equitable funding for all Illinois schoolchildren.

Illinois’ education system is broken, and legislators are now pushing for an education funding system that pulls money away from some of the state’s most needy districts to bail out Chicago. That isn’t fair to the students of Illinois.

At the upcoming Governor’s day events at the Illinois State Fair, Governor Rauner plans on addressing the issue of inequity in funding for public schools, and how his plan ensures that schoolchildren across the state receive the funding they deserve.

These TV ads will run in markets across the state in conjunction with digital ads and phone calls in support of Governor Rauner’s plan.

* Let’s see how his new campaign manager is doing

And

*** UPDATE ***  DGA…

The following statement can be attributed to Sam Salustro, DGA Illinois Communications Director:

“Yesterday, Governor Rauner could not name a Superintendent that supported his plan, so today he has to spend his millions misleading the public. As hard as he may try, Rauner cannot change facts. Rauner willingly pushed the state into crisis by issuing a politically driven veto that now puts school funding in jeopardy. Illinois families already watched Rauner veto the state budget after a two-year impasse; they should not have to suffer through another crisis just for Rauner’s political ambition.

“Schools need funding and Governor Bruce Rauner’s failed leadership is the only thing standing in their way.”

  13 Comments      


*** LIVE *** Governor’s Day, education funding reform coverage

Wednesday, Aug 16, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The House has an approp committee and 9 then convenes at 11. Follow along with ScribbleLive


  2 Comments      


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