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*** UPDATED x4 - Drudge numbers wrong? *** More turnout projections, exit polls, polling place trouble and final precinct reports

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

*** UPDATE 1 *** You can find Illinois exit polling data by clicking here when the polls close at 7.

*** UPDATE 2 *** The White House is telling people that Drudge’s US Senate result is wrong. They claim it’s “in the margin.” Drudge has Kirk up by 6. I’ve taken down his result while I check.

*** UPDATE 3 *** OK, from what I can gather, Drudge was using the first round of exit polls. The second round, combined with the first round, shows Kirk up by 3. We’re now waiting on Round 3.

*** UPDATE 4 *** More reason to distrust even that second round. From a commenter…

The early votes and mail votes will be counted after today’s votes, which will skew any such exit polling numbers

Keep in mind that we have two weekend polls showing that the Democrats did better with people who’ve already voted.

[ *** End Of Updates *** ]

* Normal turnout everywhere? So says the state board…

“Most of it seems to be what we’ve expected,’’ says Rupert Borgsmiller of the Illinois State Board of Elections. “We haven’t heard of any overwhelming numbers anywhere. You certainly can’t blame it on the weather.” […]

In the Metro East, election officials are predicting their normal off-year turnouts. Madison County Clerk Mark Von Nida said absentee and early voting figures as of Monday indicated the county will about 40 percent (or about 80,000 votes), which is considered normal for an off-year election.

* If Chicago and Cook County have a normal turnout and aren’t depressed by the national mood, it could be because of people like this…


All those nasty TV ads beating up on Democrats and the unfavorable news coverage of the tea partiers was bound to keep them motivated.

* The AP reports on national exit polling…

About a third say their household suffered a job loss in the past two years, but that didn’t give a clear direction to their voting. They divided over which party to support in Tuesday’s House races.

About four in 10 say they are worse off financially than they were two years ago. More than 80 percent said they were worried about the direction of the economy over the next year.

Only about a quarter of voters in Tuesday’s House races blamed Obama for the nation’s economic troubles. But about half think Obama’s policies will hurt the country.

About four out of 10 voters said they support the tea party movement, and they overwhelmingly voted Republican.

Mark Ambinder…

A Word Of Advice On Leaked Exit Polls

You’re going to start to see them. A lot of them. Here in Studio 47 at the CBS Broadcast Center in New York, I’m looking at all of them right now, and I can tell you that there is NOT much you can say about the major questions of the night based on the data we have now. That’s because, for the most part, the third wave of numbers, which incorporates a new tranche of voters, hasn’t been processed. Do not believe your eyes… yet. This blog will neither leak nor refer to exit polls until polls in states are closed.

* Attorney General Lisa Madigan sent out an advisory to local election authorities today warning them to follow the law. Apparently, the AG’s office was worried that people would bring their completed absentee ballots to the polls (remember that problem with the Democrats’ coordinated committee mailing out the ballot apps late?) or don’t bring their ballots ballots and could be told that they need to vote with a provisional ballot. State law says they can vote with their completed absentees, and if they don’t have one they can sign an affidavit and vote like everybody else. Click here to read Madigan’s letter.

I asked the AG’s office for more information about how widespread this problem is. They said they had a handful of calls, did the research and decided to put out an advisory.

Nicely, um, coordinated.

* A Kane County blogger tried to vote without a photo ID today and the polling judges insisted he needed one. After a long rigmarole, he was finally allowed to vote, but claims that this is happening in more than just his precinct…

Foster campaign was sending an attorney over to that polling place. I advised them that they just might have a county-wide problem, since there was general agreement at that polling place that they had all been trained in this fictitious new federal law.

They thanked me, called me back again to say they had a subsequent complaint of the same problem from another polling place, also in Kane County, but in another community.

* The President gets into the act…

President Obama was interviewed on Chicago hip hop station WGCI Tuesday morning, urging young voters to get out to the polls.

In an interview with WGCI’s Loni Swain, Obama explained how important Tuesday’s election was to him, and how it will effect the lives of young people in Chicago and beyond.

“The truth of the matter is that even though we had 30,000 people come to the [Chicago] rally, there are a lot of folks out there who still haven’t got the message that this is a really important election,” Obama said. “Making sure that folks have health care when they need it, making sure that young people are able to get college scholarships, all those things that we’ve worked on so hard for the last couple years are at stake, and the key is going to be everybody turning out to vote.”

* Zorn doubles down on his Brady prediction…

Read the Quincy Herald-Whig endorsement in the governor’s race. It’s well researched, serious, dispassionate. The editorialist basically praises the job Gov. Pat Quinn did under awful circumstances, eviscerates Brady’s vague, hollow “plans,” notes disagreement with his positions on social issues, then shrugs and says:

Brady is being endorsed because we cannot change the direction of this state without a change in leadership.

And this is what I predict at least a plurality if not a majority of voters are going to tell us today: They’re not happy with the way Illinois’ ship of state is listing and heading for the rocks, so it’s time to give someone else a chance to grab the helm.

* What? No big jobs announcement tomorrow? Hmmm…

* Here’s your opportunity to give us your final precinct reports. What’s going on out there? Some of us are in bubbles and need to know. Thanks much for all you do!

  53 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Fun election day stuff and more reader precinct reports

Tuesday, Nov 2, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a pal…

Hi buddy. What is the best site to monitor results tonight. Where will u be?

This will be the best site, of course. And I’ll be right here, posting away. We’ll have election returns, video, links to live video, etc., etc.

* Can Mike Madigan be blamed for this? It’s probably too late for the Tribune to try…

Candidates across Illinois are trying to make the most of their last day before Tuesday’s election. But a leading contender in a tight Cook County race had to step off the campaign trail for a few hours.

Assessor candidate Forrest Claypool said his “emergency” began last night after Halloween trick-or-treating. “I made the mistake of stealing my 9-year-old daughter’s Tootsie Roll,” he said. “It was like a hydraulic lift on my cavity filling, and just pulled it right out.”

Before he knew it, Claypool was in a Hyde Park dentist’s chair. The repair on Tooth No. 18 forced Claypool to cancel a Monday afternoon appearance at Manny’s Deli, a frequent stop for politicians before Election Day. He hoped the Novocain would wear off in time to meet rush-hour commuters at the Roosevelt stop of CTA’s Red Line.

* Tony Peraica has ruined it for everybody. From a press release…

At approximately 11:30 PM last night, an automobile registered in Maryland, was involved in the alleged theft of Joe Walsh for Congress campaign signs in Hainesville, Illinois. The theft occurred at the intersection of Illinois Route 120 and Illinois Route 134.

Steve Tucker, a volunteer in the Joe Walsh for Congress campaign, and another volunteer, were sitting in a car at the 7-11 gas station across the street, and observed the passenger of a car with Maryland License Plate (8 MD 1526) remove three Joe Walsh for Congress campaign signs from the shoulder of the road and replace them with campaign signs for Melissa Bean.

The getaway car was registered with a specialty license plate issued by the State of Maryland for the Maryland Democratic Party.

*** UPDATE *** I didn’t even see Walsh’s video link. Thanks to a commenter for pointing it out. First of all, the Walsh video doesn’t show the alleged operative actually touching the sign. At the very beginning she appears to be standing next to a Bean sign. And lastly, the Walsh sign appears to be posted in a public right of way, which is illegal. Is not stealing or even touching an illegally posted sign illegal? No. Watch it for yourself…


Lamest. Allegation. Ever.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

And more silliness: He said. She said.

* From the RNC’s spokesperson…

Thank you for putting up with my endless stream of emails.

No. Thank YOU for your endless streams of mob banker references.

* A new record! From the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform…

Supreme Court Chief Justice Tom Kilbride’s retention election has set a record as the most expensive retention election in the state’s history and the second most expensive in our nation’s history. Kilbride’s committee and his opponents have raised more than $3.2 million. The previous Illinois record for a retention race was in the low six figures. Kilbride had $2.6 million compared to nearly $700,000 for his opponents. Nearly $1.5 million of Kilbride’s money came from the Democratic Party of Illinois. The opposition JUSTPAC is the political committee of the Illinois Civil Justice League, which has the financial support of insurance companies and health care providers who support limits on medical malpractice and other personal injury lawsuits.

* From a buddy in Decatur…

* Today’s front page…

Yep. Even on election day, they have to get something in there about the mayor’s race.

Here’s a more interesting headline: Meeks never did endorse Pat Quinn.

…Adding… People, don’t be silly. If you see vote fraud, call the attorney general, the state’s attorney, the FBI. Don’t call WLS Radio. What’re they gonna do? Send Roe over to heckle? Sheesh.

* What’s going on at your precincts?

  44 Comments      


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