* 3:31 pm - Democrat Debbie Halvorson’s congressional campaign has just released a new poll, which shows her leading Republican Martin Ozinga by 19 points. I’ve asked the Ozinga campaign to provide any recent numbers that they might have. From the executive summary…

* Halvorson leads Ozinga by a 48% to 29% margin, with Green Party candidate Jason Wallace at 5%. Halvorson has built a sizeable 19-point lead, but still needs a few points of expansion in order to win.

* Halvorson more than doubled her lead since mid-September when she led by 8 points (43% Halvorson / 35% Ozinga). Although Ozinga has made substantial investments in cable television and mail, Halvorson’s message about strengthening the middle class and fixing the national healthcare crisis has moved the race in her favor.

* The candidates have similar name identification (63% Halvorson / 59% Ozinga), but Ozinga has a high unfavorable rating that makes it difficult for him to expand his support. More voters are unfavorable towards Ozinga than favorable (27% favorable / 32% unfavorable). Ozinga’s favorable rating is 13 points lower than Halvorson’s and his unfavorable rating is 10 points higher than Halvorson’s (40% favorable / 22% unfavorable).

* Since September, Democrats have gone from a small deficit on the generic ballot (38% Democrat / 40% Republican) to a small advantage (38% Democrat / 36% Republican). Barack Obama has taken a 2-point lead (43% Obama / 41% McCain) after trailing by 5 points in mid-September.

* Details…

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=400 live telephone interviews with likely 2008 general election voters in Illinois CD-11. Interviews were conducted between October 10-13, 2008. Respondents were selected at random with interviews apportioned geographically based on expected voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.9% at a 95% confidence level.

…Adding… From the Ozinga campaign…

“So Debbie Halvorson and three liberal special-interest groups spend over $2 million in false and personal smear ads against Marty Ozinga, and she’s still under 50%? Halvorson is clearly vulnerable to a late Ozinga surge once her shameful record of rubber-stamping Blagojevich’s failed agenda sinks in with voters in these final weeks.”

…Adding a thought… Since there are three candidates in the race, Halvorson may not need to hit 50 percent.

* Related…

Democrat Debbie Halvorson holds a slight lead in fundraising in the race to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Jerry Weller in Congress.

Halvorson, a Democrat from Crete, reported raising $580,000 between July and October, compared to Republican Martin Ozinga’s $563,000. Green Party candidate Jason Wallace of Normal raised $750. […]

“We think it’s a neck-and-neck race,” Ozinga campaign manager Andy Sere said.

According to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Halvorson raised $580,000 between July and Oct. 1, while spending more than $1.2 million.

Halvorson had $274,545 in the bank.

* 4:26 pm - Watch Congresscritter Judy Biggert completely lose her train of thought during a debate yesterday on Chicago Tonight. It ain’t pretty…

She didn’t do too well earlier in the debate, either, appearing, without lots of success, to access talking points in her mind to fit the question…