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Rauner, Pritzker release first TV ads of the general election

Tuesday, Jun 5, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gov. Rauner is kicking off the festivities by taking the Blagojevich route, which is mighty interesting since President Trump is considering letting the man out of prison and Rauner’s Blagojevich TV ads during the primary didn’t really hurt Pritzker all that much. I mean, the dude won by 20 points after Rauner spent millions.

Then again, general election audiences are very different than Democratic primary audiences, and it’s well known that the Rauner folks have been polling and focus-grouping the heck out of this topic. And the spot most definitely takes a wicked shot at Pritzker, which his GOP base will appreciate. Press release…

Today, the Rauner campaign is launching the first TV ad of the general election, and latest in a series highlighting JB Pritzker’s conversations with corrupt ex-governor Rod Blagojevich, federal inmate #40892-424, caught on FBI wiretaps.

The ad features Pritzker and Blagojevich talking about potentially appointing Barack Obama’s controversial spiritual leader Reverend Jeremiah Wright to the former president’s open Senate seat.

Pritzker quipped how “hilarious” it would be, followed by both of them rounding out their conversation with a rousing “God D@mn America!”

* Rate it…

Not a lot of context there. But the patriotic theme could take hold. Again, this is a sop to the base, which is absolutely fine for this point in the campaign.

* Background text from a GOP operative…

Only 16% of people in the state blame Bruce Rauner solely for our problems. An overwhelming majority blame Mike Madigan — to whom Pritzker has solidly hitched his wagon.

* On to the next one. Press release…

Today, the JB Pritzker campaign released the first in a new series of TV ads that will document how Bruce Rauner has failed Illinoisans across the state as governor.

The first ad in the series, “Brent,” highlights how Bruce Rauner’s failure to pass a budget led to the halt of road construction and 20,000 workers being laid off at the height of construction season. Learn more about the Rauner Failed Me campaign at www.RaunerFailedMe.com.

“Bruce Rauner’s failed leadership has had a real and lasting impact on hardworking people across our state and after three and a half years in office, it’s clear this governor has nothing positive to talk about,” said JB Pritzker. “Working families have been lied to, let down, and failed by Rauner for nearly four years — and it’s time their stories are heard.”

* Rate it…

* If you wanted Pritzker to draw serious blood with his first ad, this definitely ain’t it. They’re trying to build a narrative, though, so we’ll see. Actual general election voters may not want this thing to start out as an 11 on a scale of 1-10 and the ad does tell a story about how a real person was hurt by the governor’s choices.

Even so, it looks to my eyes like an overreaction to Hillary Clinton’s unexpected blue-collar losses in the “Rust Belt” states. Illinois isn’t Wisconsin, or Michigan, or Pennsylvania or Ohio, however. Hillary won Illinois by 17 points.

The spot seems like a too-careful-by-half, overpaid consultant’s ad and not what the relatively small number of people who are actually paying attention right now really want (which is what the Rauner ad most definitely is - a vicious assault). Instead of kicking it all off with some nasty red meat for a few days, they’ve taken the safely bland route from the get-go. They may live to regret that choice. If you’re gonna say you’ll “protect” the state from President Trump and Gov. Rauner then you need to show you’re up to the task. This ad most definitely falls short. I’ve been warning for months that Pritzker may not be tough enough to win this thing, and his inaugural ad, in my opinion, only bolsters that prediction. But, hey, they’ve got reams of polling data and endless focus group experience and I don’t.

* Script…

My name is Brent Williams, and I’m a proud union laborer. I’m one of the guys that works construction out there on the highways you drive by. Last summer, in the middle of our busy season, because of Bruce Rauner not passing a budget, I was told my job was being shut down. We just bought a house. I need to be working. When I’m not working, I’m not making money, and roads and bridges aren’t being fixed. Along with me, there were 20,000 other workers that were laid off. I don’t know that Bruce Rauner does think of me. Why would we do it for four more years?

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Roskam district Dem poll finds weak GOP support, strong opposition to Trump

Friday, May 4, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Politico…

Democrat Sean Casten, who is trying to unseat incumbent U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam, R-Ill., says his internal polling numbers show the two are in a statistical tie.

The survey (see the memo here) indicates 45 percent of those surveyed support Roskam, 44 percent for Casten, with 11 percent undecided. Democrats nationally believe the suburban 6th congressional district is among the most likely to flip to blue in November. […]

Still, Roskam is better funded than Casten, has warded off challenges in the past and voters chose Roskam in 2016 at the same time that Hillary Clinton prevailed in the same district. Roskam, one of the architects of the Republican tax law, meantime, is pounding away at Casten on taxes, trying to wrap him in Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan’s unpopularity as well as tying him to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi in digital ads. “The taxpayers in the Sixth District deserve a representative who will reflect their priorities and values, not tax-and-spend policies that have driven our state deeper and deeper into debt over the last 30 years,” Roskam campaign spokeswoman Veronica Vera said in a statement.

* As mentioned in the piece, this a memo, not the full poll. It also has a smallish sample size (although not too horribly small, I suppose) and it’s a bit dated…

This memorandum outlines the key findings from a recent telephone survey among a cross-section of 401 likely general election voters in Illinois’s 6 th Congressional District conducted on behalf of Casten for Congress. The survey was conducted April 21-23, 2018, including both cell and landline interviews, and has an overall margin of error of ±4.9 percentage points.

* Let’s have a look…

▪ In our initial trial heat, Sean Casten is in a statistical tie with Peter Roskam, 44% for Casten to 45% for Roskam, with 11% of voters undecided. Among the all-important bloc of independent voters, Casten leads Roskam by 43% to 34%.

▪ Perhaps even more striking is Roskam’s strength of support…or lack thereof.
Incredibly, only 39% of Roskam voters say they strongly support him, which is actually
lower than Casten’s strength of support. For a five-term incumbent to have weaker support than a first-time candidate early in the cycle is a sure sign of Roskam’s deep
vulnerability.

* More…

▪ President Trump lost IL-06 by 7 points in 2016. And voters here certainly haven’t warmed to the president since the election. Trump’s feelings thermometer is currently negative by a 20-point margin (37% positive, 57% negative), and his job approval stands at 41% approve to 56% disapprove (46% strongly).

▪ The national Republican brand is certainly no help to Roskam either, as voters here are more negative (49%) than positive (25%) to Republicans in Congress by nearly 2 to 1.

▪ Perhaps the brightest flashing red light for Peter Roskam is that voters in the district want their member of Congress to be an independent check and balance on Donald Trump rather than to support Trump and help him pass his programs by a decisive 69% to 29% margin, including 76% to 20% among independents. The fact that Peter Roskam has been a virtual rubber stamp for Donald Trump, voting with Trump 94% of the time, puts Roskam FAR out of step with the voters of his district on this critical question, and Roskam’s voting record is a cold hard fact that will be impossible to run away from.

That last point is important because Democrats successfully used that very same message against the wildly unpopular President George W. Bush in 2006. And if 76 percent of independents like this message, then that’ll move some votes for sure. But, hey, things can change fast in politics.

* Here’s Roskam’s Madigan attack from late yesterday afternoon…

Now that House Speaker Mike Madigan has formally backed J.B. Prtizker’s plan to raise taxes for Illinois families, residents of the 6th District deserve to know if Sean Casten will join this latest tax hike scheme by Madigan and Pritzker.

Casten has been one of Madigan’s most consistent supporters for a progressive tax hike.

As recent NBC Chicago investigation revealed that Casten attacked his primary opponent Kelly Mazeski through a Super PAC secretly funded by Casten’s own father. The attacks called Mazeski a “fake” Democrat for her opposition to the Casten/Madigan tax hike.

“Sean Casten consistently stands with Mike Madigan in their shared commitment to raising taxes on Illinois families. The taxpayers in the Sixth District deserve a representative who will reflect their priorities and values, not tax-and-spend policies that have driven our state deeper and deeper into debt over the last 30 years,” said Roskam for Congress spokesman Veronica Vera.

* Sean Casten supported Mike Madigan and his party voted to override the Governor’s veto, burdening Illinois taxpayers with a 32 percent state income tax hike.

* Casten opposed the Governor’s recent budget because he said it didn’t do enough to raise taxes on Illinois residents.

* Earlier this year, Casten announced his intention to repeal the tax breaks Sixth District families and small businesses received through the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and support a plan to instead, raise their taxes.

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