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Kirk boosts Dold in new ad while Schneider poll claims big lead

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sen. Mark Kirk appears in a new TV ad for Republican congressional candidate Bob Dold. Kirk represented much of this district when he was in Congress. Have a look…

* Meanwhile, Lynn Sweet obtained a polling memo from Democratic Congressman Brad Schneider’s campaign…

· In a rematch of their 2012 contest, Democratic Congressman Brad Schneider now leads former Republican Congressman Bob Dold by a solid 8-point margin, 48% to 40%, while 11% of likely voters remain undecided with less than four weeks to go until Election Day.

· At the top of the ticket, Democratic U.S. Senator Dick Durbin is leading Republican Jim Oberweis by 12 points, 52% to 40%, but Democratic Governor Pat Quinn trails Republican Bruce Rauner by 7 points, 40% to 47%.

· On a generic ballot citing no specific candidates, an unnamed Democrat for Congress leads an unnamed Republican by three points, 45% to 42%.

· Voters are more likely to view Schneider’s performance in Congress positively (5% excellent/37% good) than negatively (25% not so good/13% poor).

· Despite being the incumbent, Schneider (13% never heard) is actually less familiar to voters than Dold (3% never heard), providing the Democrat more room to grow.

As I’ve pointed out before, Gov. Quinn should be doing well in this district and he’s getting pounded by Rauner.

* And this is from the Schneider campaign…

U.S. Congressman Brad Schneider (IL-10) launched a new broadcast TV ad highlighting his Democratic priorities, including protecting a woman’s right to choose, preserving our environment and strengthening Medicare.

The new ad, “A Good Fit,” will be paired with the “On the Floor” TV ad currently running on broadcast that hammers Schneider’s opponent Bob Dold for his reliable Republican record, including his votes to defund Planned Parenthood and end the Medicare guarantee.

* The new ad…

* Script…

Husband: Let’s try this again.

Wife: OK

Husband: OK, Brad Schneider and the Democrats, protecting Lake Michigan

Wife: And our drinking water…

Husband: Retirement security…

Wife: Puts the middle class first and protects my right to choose.

Husband: Equal pay…

Wife: and marriage equality…

Husband: Definitely more our style

Wife: It’s a keeper.

Husband: It matches the couch.

Wife: It’s a perfect fit.

We’ve already discussed the companion ad, but it’s here if you want a refresher.

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Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax

Wednesday, Oct 15, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Poll: Quinn leads 44-41-7, Rauner “reformer” image fading

Tuesday, Oct 14, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sun-Times…

In the overall head-to-head race, the survey showed Quinn having an edge over Rauner of just under 3.5 percentage points – within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

That’s actually a bit outside the margin of error, but I would’ve rounded down the “just under 3.5″ to “3″ anyway, so, whatever, it’s close enough for hand grenades.

Anyway, the Sun-Times story focused on a question about whether voters wanted business or political or both experience in a governor. A plurality of 42 percent said “business.” That’s good news for Rauner, of course, but 24 percent said “political” and 25 percent said “both.”

* Since we have some “historical” numbers to compare, I was a bit more interested in this question…

Those queried last week considered Rauner the reform candidate over Quinn — a similar finding to what Early & Often reported in August. However, Rauner’s reform numbers have slipped nine percentage points since Early & Often posed that question in August. Then, 46 percent picked Rauner as the reformer, and 21 percent chose Quinn. Last week, 37 percent said Rauner was the reformer and 26 percent said Quinn was.

It’s not just that Rauner has fallen 9, it’s that Quinn has also jumped 5. That’s a fairly significant swing.

* These numbers have moved against Rauner as well. From the October poll, with August results in parentheses…

Which gubernatorial candidate do you think most understands your everyday concerns?

Rauner: 36 (40)

Quinn: 41 (38)

Grimm: 6 (N/A)

Neither: 16 (12)

Quinn now leads on that question, and his lead is outside the MoE. It’s a slight lead, to be sure, but it’s a seven-point swing. The trend is not becoming Rauner’s friend. But, there’s three weeks to go, campers. All sorts of things can happen.

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