Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Wednesday, Jul 30, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

Gov. Pat Quinn on Tuesday dismissed a recent poll giving his Republican opponent Bruce Rauner a 14-point lead as “phony-baloney” and suggested it’s a bit early to write his political obituary. […]

“A lot of these polls are supported by my opponents supporters, so you gotta be careful there.” […]

Madeleine Doubek, chief operating officer of Reboot Illinois, said she stands behind the poll and its methodology.

“I am completely comfortable with the results. The firm doing polling for us is reputable,” Doubek said.

She said the race is in its early stages and cautioned that the poll only represents a snapshot in time.

We got a lot of comments yesterday (many of them deleted) flat-out claiming that We Ask America is intentionally altering results because the company is owned by the Illinois Manufacturers Association, which has endorsed Bruce Rauner.

That’s ridiculous. I’ve worked with that firm a long time. No way are they doing that. The Quinnbots are hereby on notice to stop it right now or face permanent banishment.

* But the governor’s campaign is clearly not happy with the new WAA poll and sent this along yesterday…

Applying 2010 Exit Poll Party ID to today’s crosstabs gives

Rauner 42.83
Quinn 38.73
Undec 18.44

* And there are some other polls out there. For instance, a CBS/New York Times YouGov online poll found this…

Rauner 46
Quinn 43
Other 2
Won’t vote 6
Not sure 1

* As can be expected, the move to an online poll has produced some sharp criticisms, but also some praise. Washington Post pollster Scott Clement…

News of the weekend: @nytimes and @CBSNewsPoll abandon decades of quality research methods.

— Scott Clement (@sfcpoll) July 27, 2014

Amy Walter, national editor of the Cook Political Report…

Here's the reality: the phone/cell only poll is dying close to dead. The only Q is what replaces it

— amy walter (@amyewalter) July 28, 2014

* Another poll taken by Mike Mckeon’s outfit found this…

Rauner 40
Quinn 34
Undecided 26

But that poll also found Attorney General Lisa Madigan leading her totally unknown GOP rival by just nine points 46-37.

And the YouGov poll had Sen. Dick Durbin leading Jim Oberweis by just 48-41.

* Meanwhile, in the mayor’s race…

The survey of 600 likely Chicago voters was conducted July 24-27 by San Francisco-based pollster David Binder Research, a firm known its work for President Barack Obama and numerous West Coast politicians, including mayors of Los Angeles and San Francisco.

In a head-to-head matchup, the poll found that 45 percent of those questioned are committed to or leaning toward Mr. Emanuel, compared with 33 percent for Ms. Lewis. That’s a near reversal of a We Ask America poll taken for the Chicago Sun-Times this month that showed the mayor losing to Ms. Lewis by 9 points.

Just 27 percent of those sampled said they were “certain” to vote for Mr. Emanuel. And 22 percent are undecided.

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Poll: Rauner has 14-point lead

Tuesday, Jul 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sun-Times…

Gov. Pat Quinn is facing an increasingly uphill battle against Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner, a new We Ask America poll shows.

Rauner is now sitting on a 14-point lead in the poll that was conducted July 28, which is up from his 10-point lead he had in a June poll. Rauner’s boost can be attributed to his economic plan, which includes a state income tax reduction. A poll showed while people don’t believe Illinois can afford this plan, a majority say it makes them more likely to vote for him. […]

Overall, if the election were held today, Rauner would pull in 47 percent of the vote, compared to Quinn’s 33 percent. Of those polled, 20 percent said they’re still undecided.

* Reboot…

The poll contained three questions asked in sequence to gauge respondents’ reactions to the tax plans forwarded by Quinn and Rauner. Respondents first were asked for whom they would vote if the election were today. They then heard specifics of the tax plans in a second question: “Pat Quinn wants to make permanent the 5 percent personal income tax rate. Bruce Rauner wants to take four years to reduce the income tax rate to 3 percent. Rauner would also expand the sales tax to cover 32 services; not just goods. We’d like to know which plan you think is more likely to balance the budget?”

After answering that question, respondents were asked, “Knowing this information about each candidate’s approach to taxes and budgeting, for whom would you vote if the election were held today?”

Support for Quinn fell slightly — from 33 to 31 points — after respondents heard about Quinn’s plan to keep the current 5 percent personal income tax rate rather than allowing it to fall as scheduled to 3.75 percent at year’s end. Though Rauner’s plan contains its own version of a tax increase even as it proposes to lower the income tax over four years, his poll numbers increased slightly after respondents learned of his plan.

Respondents said they believed Rauner’s tax plan was more likely to balance the state budget than Quinn’s by an 11-point margin.

That last line is telling for its preposterousness. People really want to believe in magic fairy dust. Rauner apparently knows that.

Also, Rauner is still leading in suburban Cook. That’s truly ominous news for Quinn.

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