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Wednesday, Oct 27, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I won’t be watching because I don’t live in Chicago, but if you’re in the area tune in to WTTW’s US Senate debate at 7 o’clock tonight and help us out in comments by live-blogging, please. Thanks. We’ve done this before and it’s been great.

* Also, the Pollster Who Shall Not Be Named released another poll today on the US Senate race. Once again, he didn’t include all the names. And “Some other candidate” received 5 percent of the vote. Go hear and read it yourself if you want.

* From the toplines, President Obama’s approval rating here is now 51 percent. Disapproval is at 48 percent. That’s about where Raz has always had him here. The Democrats have just a six-point advantage on the congressional generic ballot, which isn’t nearly enough…

* Thinking about this year’s elections - suppose that your vote determined which political party wins control of the U.S. Senate this year. Would you vote for the Republican Party or the Democratic Party?

43% The Republican party
49% The Democratic party
8% Not sure

And then there’s this…

* Do you consider yourself part of the Tea Party Movement?

22% Yes
63% No
15% Not sure

And…

* A proposal has been made to repeal the health care bill and stop it from going into effect. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose a proposal to repeal the health care bill?

43% Strongly favor
11% Somewhat favor
9% Somewhat oppose
32% Strongly oppose
5% Not sure

Anyway, thanks again in advance for any live-commenting you can do.

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Fox News Poll: Brady ahead by 5 points

Tuesday, Oct 26, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A new Fox News poll left out one the candidates’ names (Libertarian Lex Green), which is just ridiculous. But “Some other candidate” took 1 percent, which is about in line with other recent polling.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters taken October 23rd has Bill Brady leading Gov. Pat Quinn 44-39. Independent Scott Lee Cohen has 6 percent and Green Party nominee Rich Whitney has 4 percent.

According to the poll, Quinn leads among women voters just a single point. He has just 64 percent of the “non-white” vote, while Brady has 12, Whitney has 6 and Cohen has 5. Quinn has just 74 percent support among Democrats, but Brady has 87 percent backing among Republicans. Independents break heavily 45-27 to Brady. All those numbers are pretty much right in line with other recent polling.

Among those who have already voted, 58 percent said they cast their ballot for Quinn, while 37 percent were with Brady. That could help put some of these early voting stories into context.

43 percent said the policies of the Obama administration have hurt Illinois’ economy, while just 31 percent said it helped and 23 percent said it made no difference. Just 44 percent said Obama’s policies will help the country in the long run, while 47 percent said they’ll hurt. 45 percent strongly or somewhat support the tea party, while 43 percent oppose it. 11 percent were neutral. 49 percent of women opposed it, while 37 percent supported it.

* Speaking of the tea party…

When is a tea party-sponsored event for Republican governor nominee Bill Brady not a tea party-sponsored event? When Brady is the one promoting it, apparently.

Brady’s campaign today sent out an e-mail promoting the “final stop on Brady’s suburban ‘Clean Break Express’ tour” on Wednesday in southwest suburban Homer Glen. Appearing with Brady will be Govs. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Bob McDonnell of Virginia.

But in promoting the event, dubbed “Crunch Time 2010,” Brady’s campaign made no mention of the fact that the Will County Tea Party Alliance is hosting the event. The tea party group and a variety of conservative groups are promoting attendance by saying, “Tea Partiers, Independents, Republicans, Conservatives, and Libertarians will gather together in Homer Glen to prepare for the final drive to victory.”

* And David Axelrod uses big words to excuse possible failure…

A top White House official blamed “extraneous factors” for Democrats’ troubles this fall in President Obama’s home state.

White House senior adviser David Axelrod blamed the political fallout from former Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s (D) time in office for some of the difficulties now facing Alexi Giannoulias (D) in his race for the president’s old Senate seat and Gov. Pat Quinn’s (D) bid for reelection.

“There were some extraneous factors in Illinois this year,” Axelrod said on MSNBC, “including a lot of contretemps about how the president was replaced.”

* The Fox News pollster only included two names in its US Senate poll, so I’m not reporting the results here. Go see it for yourself.

* Roundup…

* Big, late cash in guv race

* New Chicago Tribune poll mirrors Post-Dispatch’s, has GOP’s Brady up by 4 for gov

* Social issues divide Brady, Quinn

* Brady: I’ve Always Been Campaigning for Black Votes

* Brady: “There’s No Room for What Rickey Hendon Did”

* Quinn, Brady Argue Over Who Should Apologize

* Scott Lee Cohen puts another $3.2 million of his own money into governor race

* Scott Lee Cohen has loaned $2.1 million to his campaign since July

* Sun-Times: For lieutenant gov, Simon bests Plummer

* RR Star: Keep Jesse White as secretary of state

* “This will be it,” Jesse White says

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Tuesday, Oct 26, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Tribune poll: Brady leads Quinn 43-39, Rutherford leads Kelly 42-38

Tuesday, Oct 26, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Bumped up for visibility.]

* There just isn’t any good news for Gov. Pat Quinn in the Tribune’s new poll. For instance…

Among independent voters, Brady’s backing improved 10 percentage points in the new survey while Quinn’s support remained about the same.

Brady’s now leading 47-28 among independents. If this poll is correct then they’re breaking hard his way.

* More bad news for Quinn…

Indeed, Brady now has the support of 85 percent of voters who call themselves Republican, up from 79 percent four weeks ago. Quinn’s support among self-identified Democrats has increased from 71 percent to 75 percent during the same time period. […]

Slightly more than half of black voters viewed Quinn favorably, just two-thirds supported him and more than a quarter are undecided or backing a third-party candidate. Among women statewide, Quinn has a narrow 43 percent to 38 percent advantage over Brady. Among white suburban women, the two men are statistically even at about 40 percent support.

Tied among white suburban women. Nice job, governor. Better roll out that puppy ad.

* And this is just bizarre when you think about how much money has been spent attempting to define Brady…

The poll indicates a sizable chunk of voters — nearly one in three — still have no opinion of Brady despite a year of campaigning for the state’s highest office. That Brady now has a slight lead in the poll indicates a willingness among many voters to seek change during a time of economic uncertainty and go with an unfamiliar candidate rather than a better-known commodity like Quinn.

Scott Lee Cohen was at 5 percent, Rich Whitney was at 4 and Lex Green was at 2. Another 6 percent are undecided.

* The poll also found that Bill Brady has increased his support in the collar counties by 11 points, while Gov. Quinn fell by 8. The tally there now is 50-38. But the last Tribune poll had the two tied in the collars, which nobody really believed. The new number seems much closer to reality and indicates that the paper’s previous poll (which had Quinn leading Brady 39-38) could’ve been an outlier.

The only possibly good news for Quinn is that since the poll was taken Monday through Friday, much of these results are a week or almost a week old. It’s possible that he’s moved up since then. Then again, he could’ve also moved down.

* Meanwhile, most of the down-ballot statewide races are blowouts, which is no surprise. The only close contest is for treasurer…

Republican state Sen. Dan Rutherford held a 42 percent to 38 percent edge over Democrat Robin Kelly, a former south suburban lawmaker and current chief of staff to Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. The poll’s error margin is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Rutherford, who lost a run for secretary of state four years ago, held a 3-to-1 cash advantage. He launched broadcast TV ads in the Chicago area in mid-October.

Kelly did best among Chicago voters, with 61 percent to Rutherford’s 11 percent. Rutherford led Kelly in the collar counties, 53 percent to 31 percent, and downstate, 51 percent to 29 percent. Both candidates had 41 percent support in suburban Cook County.

Independent voters broke toward Rutherford, who had 46 percent to Kelly’s 25 percent.

Judy Baar Topinka is creaming David Miller 57-26. Lisa Madigan is crushing her opponent 69-21. And Jesse White is absolutely trouncing his Republican opponent 72-18.

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*** UPDATED x1 *** Hendon kinda/sorta apologizes

Monday, Oct 25, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

*** UPDATE *** If this newly posted AP story is any gauge, Sen. Hendon’s comments have “worked” to get the message out about Brady’s voting record…

Republican Bill Brady’s views on abortion, gay rights and other social issues are getting new attention, but the candidate for governor says his focus is on jobs and money.

State Sen. Rickey Hendon harshly attacked Brady’s record over the weekend, calling his fellow senator “idiotic.” And an abortion-rights group is running an ad pointing out Brady’s position.

Brady opposes abortion even in cases of rape and incest. He also opposes including gay people in the state law against job and housing discrimination.

Brady has criticized legislation requiring equal pay for equal work, and he opposes gun control.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* As I told subscribers this morning, Sen. Rickey Hendon’s comments over the weekend put Gov. Pat Quinn in a real trick bag. And even though Hendon kinda/sorta apologized for them on WLS Radio this morning, I’m not sure this is over yet.

In case you somehow missed it, Hendon called Bill Brady some very ugly things…

“I’ve never served with such an idiotic, racist, sexist, homophobic person in my life,” Hendon said before introducing Gov. Quinn. “If you think that the minimum wage needs to be three dollars an hour, vote for Bill Brady. If you think that women have no rights whatsoever, except to have his children, vote for Bill Brady. If you think gay and lesbian people need to be locked up and shot in the head, vote for Bill Brady.”

Here’s the video taken from CBS2’s story (which is here). Notice how Gov. Quinn embraces Hendon after Hendon’s speech…

Brady and others have called for a Quinn apology and renunciation of Hendon…

Republican candidate for governor Bill Brady says Governor Quinn should apologize to the people of Illinois for what Hendon said about Brady.

But Quinn said he is not apologizing for comments he himself did not make. Brady suggested he and Hendon should say they’re sorry.

“It’s not about me — it’s about the people of Illinois,” Brady, a state senator and businessman from Bloomington, says. “They are disgusted with campaigns that go to that level. I think (Quinn) needs to apologize, and he should renounce Hendon from his campaign.”

Poll numbers from the Tribune…

With little more than a week before the Nov. 2 election, Quinn has wanted to put the focus on his vast differences with Brady’s record on social issues to an electorate that largely is concerned about the economy and jobs. Hendon provided the political cover to do so.

Quinn’s support among African-American voters is weak for a Democrat, a new Tribune/WGN poll shows. Among women statewide, Quinn is barely ahead. And among white suburban women, who tend to be moderate on issues such as abortion, Quinn and Brady are running even.

So, Hendon helped focus a “weak” black base, but likely turned off that all-important suburban white woman demographic.

* As mentioned above, Hendon kinda/sorta apologized today. From WLS Radio…

Now Hendon tells Cisco Cotto on WLS, “On your show right now I will apologize to the people of the state of Illinois if they were offended by what I said, but I will not apologize to Bill Brady for telling the truth about his voting record,” Hendon said.

The full audio is here. And here’s the relevant snippet with more context…

Will it work?

* Also, the Sun-Times editorialized on Brady’s views today…

When we ask conservative Republicans running for office this year where they stand on important social issues like gun control and abortion, we typically get a canned response that goes like this:

“Golly, when I knock on doors and talk to the voters, they just don’t care about that stuff. All they want to talk about is jobs.”

There is truth to that. The bad economy is foremost on the mind of most voters.

But that response is also a transparent dodge, a way to divert attention from what can be extreme, even dangerous, views.

In Illinois, nobody has played dodgeball harder than state Sen. Bill Brady, the GOP nominee for governor. And nobody has had better reason. Brady’s deeply conservative views on many social issues, if widely known, would appall the more moderate Republican and independent voters he needs to win.

* Roundup…

* Mark Brown: Brady cash flood make mockery of disclosure laws: These are among the many individuals and corporations fueling the Republican Governors Association, which reported dumping another $1.4 million into Illinois late last week, channeling the money through a shell campaign fund, RGA Illinois 2010 PAC, that was created for the purpose of helping Brady. The group’s latest donation pushes its total involvement in the Brady campaign past the $6.8 million mark, which I believe to be unprecedented in an Illinois state election.

* When Brady fought the neighbors: Dave Anderson, who retired as Normal city manager in 1998, said he’s never walked out of a meeting with the Bradys. “And I can’t say that about every subdivider in town,” he said. That willingness to negotiate goes hand-in-hand with what observers say is a concern to protect the family’s reputation. Among the family’s many charitable efforts was building a home in Philo last year for ABC’s “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition,” just months before Brady won the Republican gubernatorial primary.

* Quinn jobs claims a little shaky

* Mike Lawrence: Neither Brady nor Quinn has made his case

* You wouldn’t elect a puppy killer, would you?

* Find out where Quinn, Brady stand on budget, taxes

* Quinn targets Chicago; Brady’s focus downstate

* No rest for candidates for governor Sunday

* Candidates woo independent voters on weekend

* Gubernatorial candidates stump in Metro East

* Southern: Time for fresh start in Illinois state government

* Herald & Review: Bill Brady is best choice for Illinois governor

* Pantagraph: Quinn hasn’t been a leader; it’s Brady’s turn

* Southtown Star: Give Quinn 4-year term

* Brady speaks with business owners in Crystal Lake

* Green offers second Bloomington option for governor

* Whitney ad to air on Comedy Central and MSNBC

* Political experience, age differ widely in race for lieutenant governor between Plummer, Simon

* Plummer: Lack of policy not lagging resources is to blame

* SJ-R: Elect Madigan, White again

* RR Star: Lisa Madigan deserves third term as attorney general

* Madigan faces novice for attorney general

* Dispatch-Argus: State treasurer, comptroller

* Topinka believes her experience would help state

* Kelly, Rutherford square off in treasurer race

* State Rep. Miller makes pitch for comptroller

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Polling, schmolling

Monday, Oct 25, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Two things to keep in mind about the Tribune’s new US Senate poll. From the article…

The poll of 700 registered voters, conducted last Monday through Friday…

I’m going on the hope that they asked those registered voters if they were likely to vote. If not, this is worthless. Also, a five-day window? Some of these numbers are now a week old. That’s ancient in campaign terms.

But at least the Tribune put all the Senate candidates into its poll, unlike the Mason-Dixon poll.

Man, the polling this year is really messed up.

* From the Tribune poll…

Kirk’s support among independents increased from 38 percent to 50 percent, the poll showed, while Giannoulias’ backing among unaligned voters was relatively stagnant at about 28 percent. During that time period, the number of undecided independent voters dropped from 22 percent to 8 percent — with Kirk picking up virtually all of those deciding on a candidate. […]

The poll showed potential avenues where Giannoulias can grow support — if he can get Democrats motivated. Concerns of a post-2008 letdown have prompted Obama to make two visits back home to Chicago to help Giannoulias and other Democrats, with a third trip planned for Saturday.

Only two-thirds of voters in predominantly Democratic Chicago back Giannoulias’ candidacy, a gain of less than 5 percentage points from late September, while 15 percent of city voters said they were undecided. At the same time, in increasingly Democratic suburban Cook County, Giannoulias carries a slim 49 percent to 43 percent advantage over Kirk.

Kirk holds a strong 15 percentage-point advantage among men, and Giannoulias has an 8 percentage-point edge among women across the state. But the two men each have the support of 43 percent of a key voting demographic: white suburban women who tend to be social moderates.

Geo tabs…

* Meanwhile, the DSCC just leaked its latest topline…

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote — Alexi Giannoulias, a Democrat, Mark Kirk, a Republican, Michael Labno, a Libertarian, or LeAlan Jones, of the Green Party?

Total Giannoulias 38%
Total Kirk 36%
Total Labno 4%
Total Jones 7%
Undecided 16%

Another five-day polling window, but at least it’s more recent (Wednesday through yesterday). 600 likely voters. MoE +/-4.0 percent.

* Related…

* Charlie Cook: Dems’ House Losses Likely Enormous, but Senate Hard to Read

* Illinois Moves to the Right

* Revenge Of The Right

* Senate Forecast Update: G.O.P. Still Seeking No. 51

* Gay voters angry at Democrats could sway election

* Feds OK Illinois extension on overseas ballots

* Poll shows tight races for governor, U.S. Senate

* Poll: Kirk has slim lead in Senate race (VIDEO)

* Illinois Senate race listed as one of 7 toss-ups

* Forget ads: Senate candidates Kirk, Giannoulias worthy

* A closer look at U.S. Senate candidates Kirk, Giannoulias

* U.S. Senate candidate profiles

* Kirk, Giannoulias press the flesh in suburbs, city

* SJ-R: Alexi Giannoulias for U.S. Senate

* RR Star: Alexi Giannoulias our pick for U.S. senator

* Giannoulias: This Senate Seat Isn’t For Sale

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Monday, Oct 25, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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