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While we wait for the debate: PPP Poll has a one-point governor’s race

Wednesday, Oct 20, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* While we wait for the start of tonight’s 7 o’clock debate [click here for the ABC7 livestream], let’s take a quick look at the new Public Policy Polling poll….

42% Bill Brady
41% Pat Quinn
6% Scott Lee Cohen
1% Lex Green
3% Rich Whitney
6% Undecided

* I asked PPP to check Speaker Madigan’s fave/unfaves and they did…

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Michael Madigan?
18% Favorable
52% Unfavorable
30% Not sure

Oof.

Methodology…

October 14-16, 2010 Survey of 557 likely voters. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%.

* Please help us live-blog tonight’s debate in comments. Y’all did an excellent job last night. Let’s try it again. Click here for the livestream. The debate begins at 7 pm.

* 7:00 pm - And here we go…

* The Chicago Tribune’s Clout St. blog is also liveblogging. And IL Public Media is live-Tweeting. So is ABC7 and NBC5.

* Brady gets to early release, um, early in the debate. Just a quick mention, but a nice pivot.

* After months of ignoring Sen. Dan Kotowski’s budget reform proposal, Quinn has finally started using it in debates, including twice tonight. It also helps that Brady voted against the proposal - because it was attached to a budget bill.

The same goes for legislator furloughs, which Quinn just mentioned. It was in a budget-bill. Brady voted against the bill, so he voted against all that other stuff as well.

* LOL. Quinn has constantly used the phrase “perish the thought” whenever he mentions the possibility that Brady could be elected. Brady just said: “Governor, perish the thought that you’d tell the truth.” The man understands pivots. Very crucial in debates if people are watching.

* Brady: “Gov. Quinn has used the social issues to divide Illinois.”

* Andy Shaw: “Sen. Brady let me see if I can get an actual answer to the question.” Asks about social issues. Brady says he supports “parental notice,” 2nd Amendment. Tries to be as innocuous as possible.

* “Leaders lead, they don’t punt. Gov. Quinn has punted on issue like he has punted” on everything else, Brady said about death penalty reforms. He’s clearly getting the better of the guv.

* Brady again brings up the allegation that Illinois is deemed to be one of only 7 states to be in a recession. That was on MSNBC a while ago. I’ll be doing a fact check tomorrow on this.

* Quinn brings up George W. Bush and Brady’s support for him in yet another debate. Talks about rail car company that’s expanding and Groupon. Nippon and Groupon, if you’re keeping score at home.

* From Clout St…

Quinn claimed Brady voted against a bill that would have barred spouse abusers from having guns. Do not have a bill number to verify at this point.

So, I asked the Quinn campaign…

Brady Voted Against Denying Domestic Abusers Guns. Brady voted against a bill that required applicants for firearm owner’s ID cards to certify that they had not been convicted of domestic battery or similar offense. It also allowed the police to deny or revoke ID cards if the holder had been convicted of such crimes. [HB 127, Adoption, 92-22, 5/31/97]

There you go.

* Brady: “If you want an Illinois that looks more like an Indiana or a Tennessee…” vote for me. [Miller: Look, man, it’s not that I hate Indiana and Tennessee, but I don’t want to be like them.]

* Quinn shout-out to Lisa Madigan on how he’s working with her on transparency. LM is the most popular person in politics these days, so that can’t hurt. Also, third mention of Sen. Kotowski’s “budgeting for results” bill.

* Brady again brings up an audit. I wonder if anyone showed Quinn the quote from the auditor general about whether he knew what a “business audit” of the state would be. His response? “No.” Apparently not because Quinn didn’t mention it in his response. He used to read this blog. Maybe he’s just too busy now.

* Brady: “You’ve racked up record deficits and debt. $13 billion.” “Slashed” public safety. “I never said I’d slash Veterans Affairs.”

* From Ward Room…

“It doesn’t matter how many times you’ve cut $3 billion it’s still not true.”

* Quinn brings up the “drive through deliveries” bill that mandated more than 24 hours hospital time for new moms, but doesn’t explain it very well at all.

* It’s a good thing that this debate isn’t being watched by a majority of the voters or the guv would be toast.

Keep that in mind, by the way. We’re watching, but not a huge number of people are. This isn’t like a presidential debate.

* Brady: “Let me remind you, governor, that it was you who introduced the bill to cut education by a billion dollars.” Zing.

* Quinn now trying to explain those three Brady “conflict of interest” votes. Actually, it wasn’t much of a “try.” The governor doesn’t seem to know the specifics. Bizarre.

Brady brings up the AFSCME deal in response. “Ethically challenged?” he asks before each point, including “secret pay raises.”

* Moderator asks Brady to explain the votes. Brady glosses over them.

Quinn, however, still doesn’t explain what the three votes were, except to say they were published by the Tribune. For crying out loud, somebody tell the governor to read the gosh-darned Tribune story. Sheesh.

* If your Quinn drinking game word was “Groupon,” you’re plastered by now. Please, don’t comment. You might embarrass yourself.

* Clout St…

*Quinn has ripped Brady twice for not going to a campaign forum sponsored by an African-American advocacy group.

* Mike Flannery…

Brady offers lamest defense/explanation yet of 3 votes he cast in Genl Assembly to spend tax dollars to benefit his interests nr Champaign

Yeah, but Quinn’s explanation was even lamerster. (OK, my drinking game word was “budgeting for results,” so I may be getting a bit tipsy too.)

* Latina panelist Rebecca Sanchez asks Brady about a story I wrote for subscribers a few weeks ago regarding a fundraiser attended by two former Rod Blagojevich cronies. Brady says he doesn’t know what she’s speaking of. She says Juan Ochoa and Dean Martinez. Brady says they’re “good people.” Quinn points out that he fired Martinez. That ought to push the story into the mainstream if anyone is paying attention.

* Brady: “Governor, you didn’t even have the backbone to stand up to Mike Madigan and John Cullerton” on your own reform commission’s ideas.

* Quinn talks about companies “taking” jobs from Indiana and Missouring and “bringing them to Illinois.” This was in context of Brady not paying taxes, believe it or not.

* Quinn uses Bush again in his closing statement. From Clout St…

*Brady closing statement: Illinois is a crossroads, but we need new leadership. Quinn has run state into the ground the past two years. Jobs lost. If you want to continue down that path, vote for Pat Quinn. If you want a difference, lower taxes and more jobs, vote Brady.

*Quinn closing statement: He stabilized government on ethics when he took over. Blamed Bush killing economy. Said he’s creating jobs. Important to have a governor with a heart.

And it’s over.

Thoughts?

94 Comments

PPP: Kirk over Giannoulias 42-40

Wednesday, Oct 20, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Public Policy Polling has just released its latest Illinois survey and finds Mark Kirk ahead of Alexi Giannoulias by two points 42-40. PPP’s last poll three weeks ago had Kirk ahead by four. From the pollster…

You would assume that for Mark Kirk to be running ahead as Republican in Illinois that he would be winning a good amount of crossover support from Democrats and that he would have a massive lead with independents. In reality he is doing neither of those things. He’s only getting 10% of the Democratic vote, about average for GOP candidates across the country this year. And he has just a 9 point advantage with independents, below average for what Republican Senate candidates across the country are getting. To put it into perspective when the GOP won another Senate seat this year in a state Obama won by 25 points- Massachusetts- their nominee took independent voters by a 32 point margin.

So how is Kirk ahead if he’s not doing those things? The final outcome in Illinois, perhaps more so than any other state in the country, is going to be determined by the ability of Democrats to mobilize their base in these final two weeks. We find that likely voters there only voted for Barack Obama by a 9 point margin in 2008, compared to his actual 25 point victory in the state. If what Democrats are dealing with on a national basis is an enthusiasm gap then what they’re facing in Illinois could perhaps be better described as an enthusiasm canyon. The only state where we see a bigger disparity between who voted in 2008 and who’s planning to vote this year is Obama’s native Hawaii.

The competitiveness of this race is completely predicated on paltry Democratic turnout. If that proves to be the case it’s about 50-50 as to who will win on election day with perhaps a small advantage for Kirk. If Democratic turnout exceeds current expectations there’s almost no doubt Giannoulias ends up as the winner.

Crosstabs are here. This is a relatively “old” poll since it was conducted Oct. 14-16, so some of these numbers are almost a week old.

Green Party nominee LeAlan Jones has 4 percent and Libertarian Mike Labno has 3 percent. 10 percent are undecided.

* Voters don’t like either of these guys…

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Alexi Giannoulias?
35% Favorable
47% Unfavorable
18% Not sure

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Kirk?
35% Favorable
46% Unfavorable
19% Not sure

* And this is bad, bad news for Democrats…

Would you rather Democrats or Republicans held the majority in the next US Senate?
45% Democrats
46% Republicans
9% Not sure

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?
45% Approve
51% Disapprove
4% Not sure

* Lots of undecided females…

* And LeAlan Jones is taking Democratic and black votes away from Giannoulias…

* The DSSC leaked a topline to Lynn Sweet yesterday showing Giannoulias leading Kirk 41-36. The pollster who shall not be named once again screwed up his numbers by using “some other candidate” instead of Libertarian Labno. Stupidity.

17 Comments

*** UPDATED x1 *** Congressional roundup: Hare trails by 7, Foster down by 1, Seals whacks Dold

Wednesday, Oct 20, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The DCCC has spent $360K on Congressman Phil Hare, according to Hotline on Call. Hare will need every dollar he can get. The Hill’s new poll has him trailing Republican Bobby Schilling by seven points…

Rep. Phil Hare (D-Ill.) is in trouble. He ran unopposed in 2008, but this cycle he trails the GOP candidate, Tea Party favorite Bobby Schilling, by seven points — 38 percent to Schilling’s 45 — and 14 percent of likely voters are undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

Perhaps even more troubling, 50 percent of independent voters support Schilling, while only 29 percent support Hare. Also among independents, 45 percent had a negative view of Hare, while only 18 percent had a negative view of Schilling, who’s never run for office and owns a pizza restaurant.

President Obama carried this district, and 57 percent of independents gave the president low marks.

Meanwhile, Hare trails by 17 points among male voters, while he only leads by two points among female voters. Schilling has a 20-point lead among middle-aged voters. Hare wins younger and older voters by a small margin.

Meanwhile, 95 percent of Republicans said they definitely will vote, while 84 percent of Democrats said the same.

And 38 percent of voters said Obama has brought change to Washington “for the worse,” while 25 percent said it was “for the better” and 34 percent said nothing has changed.

* Here’s a brutal NRCC ad attacking Hare…

*** UPDATE *** From the Hare campaign…

Had the National Republican Campaign Committee bothered to watch Congressman Hare’s complete statement, they would have understood he was clearly saying that we must invest in local communities to keep teachers and firefighters on the job. The myth Hare referred to is that you can’t spend at all during periods of debt. Hare even points out several budget offsets that could pay for these investments like ending tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires and subsidies to the oil industry–offsets Republicans like Schilling refuse to support.

Watch the full video in context here.

Associated Press says clip is out of context: “But add a little context and it becomes clear that Hare was not denying the debt exists. He was calling it a myth that the debt means the federal government can’t spend money on important programs.”

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* The NRCC’s latest poll has Schilling leading Hare 44-41.

* Hotline on Call also reports that the DCCC has spent $366K recently on Congressman Bill Foster. The Hill poll has Foster trailing Randy Hultgren by one point…

Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) is in a tough battle for his district. He trails Republican Randy Hultgren by one point, 42 percent to 43, with 12 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll. […]

The poll found 26 percent of likely voters weren’t familiar with Hultgren, compared with 11 percent who didn’t know Foster. And 27 percent of independents said they weren’t familiar with Hultgren. […]

Among independent voters, 45 percent favor Foster, 39 percent favor Hultgren and 13 percent are undecided. Younger voters and female voters are leaning toward Foster, while Hultgren is popular among male and older voters.

President Obama carried this district, but 45 percent of voters said they disapproved of the job he’s doing. And 71 percent said the president would be a factor in their 2010 decision.

When asked about the change Obama brought to Washington, 35 percent said he brought change “for the worse,” 30 percent said he brought change “for the better” and 31 percent said nothing has changed.

* The Democrats are unleashing a double-barreled attack on Republican congressional candidate Bob Dold. Both ads hit him for being pro-life in a pro-choice district. Dold claims he’s pro-choice, but Planned Parenthood begs to differ. First up, Democrat Dan Seals’ ad, which claims that Dold is “hiding who he is”…

* The DCCC’s ad says “Robert Dold has been careful about what he shows us” and goes on to say he is “backed” by the Illinois Federation for Right to Life. Actually, the group “recommended” Dold in the primary. Watch…

According to Hotline on Call, the DCCC has spent $631,000 on Seals.

* Roundup…

* 3Q House Fundraising Reports Roundup

* Durbin Stumps Downstate With Hare

* New 10th District ads have very different messages

* Kinzinger, Halvorson in 11th District showdown

* Area mayors endorse Rep. Halvorson

* Polls: Tight race in 14th Congressional District

* Hare and Shilling Debate in Springfield

* US House Candidates Debate in Springfield

* U.S. Rep. Shimkus: ‘I feel I need to be there’

28 Comments

Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Wednesday, Oct 20, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Tuesday, Oct 19, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Quinn’s meandering, Obama’s robocall, and much, much more

Monday, Oct 18, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gov. Pat Quinn announced grant money for a new Port of East St. Louis the other day. The governor’s office originally posted a video of the occasion, but it’s since been “privated.” I downloaded it over the weekend, however, and cut it to give you yet another look at our meandering governor on the stump. You really should watch this…

I do have to say, though, that the governor’s meandering ways are starting to grow on me a little. Better late than never, I suppose…

“The biggest river in our country and one of the biggest rivers in the United States of America.”

An absolute classic.

* President Obama is doing a robocall for Alexi Giannoulias. Listen…

Script…

This is Barack Obama calling on behalf of Alexi Giannoulias.

With polls showing my good friend Alexi in a close race, your vote is crucial.

Early voting is already underway, and I strongly urge you to go vote today.

Also, for the first time ever you can vote by mail.

To learn how you can avoid lines and bad weather by voting early visit alexiforillinois.com or call 312-603-5656 (a second version uses 312-269-7900).

* Personal PAC’s big fundraiser was at the Hilton today. Unfortunately for the group, hotel workers went out on strike…

* The American Action Network (one of those 501(c)(4) groups) is spending big bucks on this TV ad in the 10th Congressional District attacking Democrat Dan Seals…

* The Seals campaign is pointing to this Washington Post article about the group’s chairman, Fred Malek…

The documents about Malek’s work as Nixon’s special assistant are part of formerly restricted material from personal files that the Nixon library made public in January. A note posted on the National Archives Web site mentions Malek’s reputation under Nixon as “the hatchet” because of his tenacity, and says the documents show that Malek “supplied Nixon with a list of thirteen people he thought had Jewish surnames” at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

At the time, according to Nixon’s Oval Office tapes and other official documents, the president was enraged by what he and his aides called a Jewish “cabal” at the bureau, and they blamed the group for making gloomy economic forecasts.

* And another Paul Simon Institute poll…

While more than 40 percent of voters agree or strongly agree with the Tea Party, only a third said they would be more likely to vote for a candidate affiliated with the grassroots political movement.

In comparison, 45.5 percent said they would be less likely to vote for such a candidate, according to a recent statewide poll conducted by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale. […]

Of those polled, 24 percent agreed with the movement and 17 percent strongly agreed. Sixteen percent said they disagreed; 20 percent strongly disagreed and more than 19 percent said they had no opinion.

* Roundup…

* Cohen camp tops opposition w/ mailings

* It’s Expensive to Fix ‘Rich Whitey’ on Chicago Ballots

* Mid-Terms 2010: Some Unexpected Increases For Democrats

* Republican candidates flush for Senate bids

* BARTON LORIMOR: Giannoulias to be in Carbondale Thursday for rally instead of debate

* Daily Herald: Congress, 8th District: Bean

* The resurrection of Joe Walsh’s campaign

* Q&A: Bean, Walsh, Scheurer for 8th congressional

* Daily Herald: Congress, 9th District: Pollak

* Israel Becomes a Big Issue in the Ninth District Race

* Daily Herald: Congress, 10th District: Seals

* How Dold, Seals stand on the issues

* ‘Young man’ giving Halvorson tough run

* Daily Herald: Congress, 16th District: Manzullo

* Manzullo raises almost 20 times more than opponent

* Hare, Schilling agree to televised debate

* Race for 17th District has different look

* 18th Congressional, County Board and recorder hopefuls attend forum

* Shimkus: ‘Don’t ask, don’t tell’ must stay

* Q&A with Rahm Emanuel: His first Chicago interview

* Washington: Could a minister be a good mayor?

* Burris says he’s been encouraged for mayoral run

* Council dean Burke says he will not run for mayor

* County Assessor Hopefuls Battle for Black Votes

* Claypool campaigns at South Side church

* Q&A: Cook County assessor — Forrest Claypool

* Q&A: Cook County assessor — Joseph Berrios

34 Comments

Drilling down into the debate

Monday, Oct 18, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Both Gov. Pat Quinn and Sen. Bill Brady talked to reporters after their debate last night. First up, Bill Brady, who talks about the allegations of conflict of interest (several times), early release, “forensic audit” vs. “business audit” (which he claims could be completed in 50-75 days for 80 percent of the government) and how he will deal with his company after he’s elected. Watch…

* Gov. Quinn spent most of his time whacking Brady for the Senator’s alleged conflicts of interest…

* The Quinn campaign sent out press releases throughout the debate last night which responded to Brady. Zorn gives us Brady’s response to a Phil Ponce question about whether he’s “seriously out of step” on gay employment rights and civil unions…

I don’t belive so. My beliefs are what they are. And I believe a lot of people in Illinos respsect those believes. But unlike Governor Quinn my agenda is focused on solving the economic crisis and bringing jobs to Illionios by balancing our budget without raising taxes. Gov. Quinn’s agenda is to promise that he’ll pass a civil unions bill as his first priority after he’s elected. Now I believe that the people care deeply about bringing jobs back to Illinois That’s what I’m focused on, and as governor of this state that will be by first and highest priority.

Audio…

And here is the Quinn “rapid reaction” team’s response…

Senator Brady claimed tonight that social issues weren’t his first priority. However, his actions after the February primary belie that claim.

Two days after the Republican primary, Senator Brady introduced a bill to permit mass euthanization of dogs and cats in gas chambers (SB2999, Filed 2/4/10)

He proposed two other bills that week:

* The first was his third attempt to ban gay marriage and civil unions (SJRCA 95, Filed 2/10/10; SJRCA

* The other would allow religious organizations to discriminate in hiring against people based on sexual orientation, gender identity or religion (SB 3447, Filed 2/10/10).

He transferred sponsorship of all three bills after their appearance in the media and public outcry.

After the primary, Brady’s first priority was animal euthanization and restricting LGBT rights.

* The two sides also talked about the budget last night. Not many specifics were offered up, despite the best intentions of the questioners. But Zorn has Brady’s answer to a question about a specific budget cut…

Well, the Medicaid program under Governor Quinn allows people like Governor Quinn to walk in and receive an eligibility card. We don’t verify eligibility in the Medicaid program. It’s costing other human service providers and educators and other people in state government.

…Adding… Audio…

* Earlier this afternoon, I sent the governor’s office some questions, without alluding to last night’s debate: “Does Illinois verify income eligibility in the Medicaid program? If not, why not? If so, how?” The response from Stacey Solano, who is the communication manager for the Illinois Dept. of Healthcare and Family Services…

Yes, HFS verifies income information when an individual applies for Medicaid benefits, as it is both state and federally required. At application, HFS checks paystubs as well as federal data for income sources, such as Social Security. We also identify unemployment benefits and coordinate with DHS for any income information received in conjunction with SNAP or TANF programs.

So, according to this response from HFS, Brady appears to be wrong.

* Kurt Erickson has more on “forensic audits” in his weekly column…

…the team of auditors in the Lone Star State also recommended raising a number of taxes and fees that were deemed too low.

That’s the risk with backing the idea of a forensic audit. After millions of dollars and thousands of hours spent analyzing state spending, the pencil pushers could recommend that some taxes actually need to rise.

John Sharp was the comptroller in Texas when a forensic-type audit was launched there in 1991. He told me the process was tough, but it worked. Cuts outlined by his team helped fill in a $3 billion deficit, and a tax hike was avoided.

But, he said, “I never caught more (crap) than that in my life.”

* Speaking of the budget, the Paul Simon Institute has released some new polling results about the budget. 83 percent opposed cuts to programs for people with mental or physical disabilities. 82 percent opposed cuts to education, 74.5 percent opposed cuts to public safety, 66 percent opposed cuts in state spending “on programs for poor people,” 57 percent opposed cuts for universities and 53 percent opposed cuts for state parks and conservation.

But here’s one answer that kinda surprised me, considering that public employee unions are this year’s “Cadillac-driving welfare queens”…

Do you favor or oppose cuts in state spending on pension benefits for state workers’ retirement?

Favor 45.5%
Oppose 47.3%
Other/Don’t know 7.2%

Split.

* The revenue side of the poll was also predictable. For instance, 57 percent agreed with this statement…

The state takes in plenty of money to pay for public services but wastes it on unnecessary programs. We can fix the problem by cutting waste and inefficiency in government.

And that agreement holds up pretty much everywhere in Illinois. Click the pic to see a larger image of the xtabs…

Full budget crosstabs are here.

* And now, a brief foray into campaign news. Gov. Pat Quinn hasn’t been in Lake County since before Labor Day? That’s not the way things usually go here…

[Sen. Bill Brady] held a 35 percent to 29 percent lead over Quinn in suburban Chicago in a poll of 1,000 registered voters last week by Southern Illinois University’s Paul Simon Public Policy Institute. That survey, which gave Brady a nearly 9 percentage-point lead statewide, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points […]

With slightly more than two weeks until the election, some of Quinn’s allies still regard this as a race for the hearts and minds of suburban voters. Link would like the governor to spend more time in the collar counties, noting he hasn’t been in Lake County since before Labor Day.

“I think he can run very good in the collar counties,” Link said of Quinn. “Obviously, he has to work them a little better. His message has to get out here. He himself has to get out here more.”

Rod Blagojevich beat Judy Baar Topinka in Lake County by about 6400 votes four years ago. Blagojevich lost to Jim Ryan in the county by almost 16,000 votes four years earlier. It’s competitive turf, and it’s pretty surprising that Quinn hasn’t set foot there in months. Not even in Waukegan? Well, it turns out, he has been in Waukegan recently. From the Lake County News-Sun’s Quinn endorsement on October 11th…

We also like Quinn’s jobs plan, which he outlined this week while in Waukegan during a campaign stop.

Still, that’s the only visit I could find.

* Related…

* Evidence that our next governor will be unable to answer a question

* WBEZ’s third-Party Gubernatorial Forum

* How Gubernatorial Races Affect Senate Races

13 Comments

Question of the day

Monday, Oct 18, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Paul Simon Institute has released some more Illinois poll numbers…

Which of the following three statements comes closest to your position on the legal rights of gay and lesbian couples in Illinois?

* Gay and lesbian couples should be allowed to legally marry 33.6%
* Gay and lesbian couples should be allowed to form civil unions, which would give them some legal rights 33.9%
* There should be no legal recognition of relationships between gay and lesbian couples 26.5%
* Other/Don’t know 6.0%

* The Question: What’s your position? Explain.

94 Comments

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