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Friday, Oct 1, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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This just in… TRIBUNE POLL: Quinn leads by one point - And why this is happening

Friday, Oct 1, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

[Bumped up for visibility and updated.]

* 9:37 pm - Pat Quinn’s up 39-38, according to the Trib. Yep. It’s definitely a trend…

A pre- Labor Day Tribune survey had Brady leading Quinn 37 percent to 32 percent. But in the last four weeks, Quinn’s abysmal job approval rating improved a little, and voters view him slightly more favorably than a month ago. And the governor is attracting more support from traditionally key sources of Democratic vote, particularly in Chicago and among African-American voters.

On the other hand, Brady’s numbers flipped and he is now liked and disliked by about the same percentage of voters, though more than a third say they still haven’t formed an opinion about the veteran state senator. Brady, who hails from a prominent Bloomington homebuilding family, continues to trounce Quinn downstate, though his lead in the collar counties has disappeared.

Democrats are coming home. A month ago, Quinn had only 56 percent of Dem voters. Now, it’s 71. He’s almost at 60 percent of Chicagoans, up from less than half of city voters a month ago.

Brady’s unfavorables have risen 10 points, from 19 to 29.

The poll found 39 percent of those surveyed think Brady would do a better job of restoring the state’s economy, compared to one-third who said Quinn would do the better job. […]

Quinn remains heavily out of favor with voters outside the Chicago area — a possible explanation for his recent spate of downstate visits to cut ribbons for public works projects. Almost half of downstate residents view the governor unfavorably, and Brady has the backing of 51 percent of the region’s voters compared to Quinn’s 27 percent.

Among independent voters, a group key to Republican chances for victory, Brady holds the advantage but has failed to distance himself significantly from Quinn. The poll found Brady favored by 37 percent of independent voters, compared to 33 percent a month ago. But Quinn also gained and is now backed by 29 percent of independents, up from 24 percent last month.

But the Trib says they’re basically tied in the collar counties. That’s hugely significant. Huge.

…Adding… I forgot to mention the other guys. Scott Lee Cohen is at 4 percent, Green Party nominee Rich Whitney is at 3 and Libertarian Lex Green is at 2.

…Adding more… The reason I say this looks like a trend is that we have now seen four polls released this week which put the race in single digits. Three of the four are public, one is private, except for subscribers. And three of those four polls have this as a one or two-point race.

Progress Illinois (a subscriber) let the cat out of the bag…

(W)hen [Scott Lee Cohen is] included in polling, the Capitol Fax calculated that Democratic numbers improve.

Look at the polls that have included Cohen’s name going back a month, when the Tribune had this as a five-point race. Every major pollster who included Cohen had this contest in single digits. Every one. Rasmussen, PPP (until now) and the rest have simply been churning out completely wrong numbers. This race has been close for a while. And now it’s probably closer.

…Adding still more… Limited crosstabs are here.

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PPP: Brady up by seven, Topinka ahead by 20 and Rutherford up by 8

Thursday, Sep 30, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Two publicly released polls in two days showing a single digit governor’s race. Something’s up. Subscribers know one theory. From Public Policy Polling…

Bill Brady continues to lead the Illinois Governor’s race but Pat Quinn’s pulling a little closer, trailing 42-35 in PPP’s newest survey of the race. Independent Scott Lee Cohen gets 6%, Green Party candidate Rich Whitney is at 4%, and Libertarian Lex Green is at 2%.

Quinn’s doing better than he was in an August PPP poll, when he trailed by 9, largely because of an improved standing with independents. He continues to trail Brady 39-27 with them, but that’s a significant improvement from his 25 point deficit in the last poll. Quinn is incredibly unpopular with independent voters, at an 18/67 approval spread. But those voters don’t like Brady either, viewing him negatively 32/38.

It’s amazing that Quinn’s still in this given his continuing incredible unpopularity. 60% of voters in the state now disapprove of the job he’s doing to only 24% who are happy with it. In addition to those dreadful numbers with independents only 6% of Republicans think he’s doing a good job and even with Democrats he’s at just a 42/38 spread. But he’s fortunate that GOP voters nominated a very weak candidate themselves. Only 36% of folks in Illinois see Brady in a favorable light while 44% have a negative opinion of him.

The two biggest things to watch in this race over the final five weeks are the undecideds and the 10% of voters currently leaning either toward Cohen or Whitney.

The undecideds are an overwhelmingly Democratic bunch. 67% voted for Barack Obama while only 20% supported John McCain. They’re planning to vote Democratic for Congress by a 44-17 margin this fall. They’re supporting Alexi Giannoulias by a 21 point margin over Mark Kirk. But they don’t like Pat Quinn- only 14% of them approve of him with 42% disapproving. Whether their Democratic loyalties outweigh their dislike of Quinn in the end may determine whether he can still pull out this race despite his very poor personal numbers.

The folks supporting Cohen or Whitney right now are also a Democratic leaning bunch. 52% voted for Obama to only 32% who supported McCain. They’re planning to vote Democratic for Congress by a 43-28 margin. But they really hate Quinn- 4% approve of him and 83% disapprove of him.

If you allocate all of the undecideds who voted for Obama to Quinn and the ones who voted for McCain to Brady, the Brady lead shrinks to 44-43. My guess is that most of the undecideds will indeed end up in the Quinn camp and make this a much closer race. Quinn’s path with the Whitney and Cohen voters is tougher though and he needs to hope those folks’ dislike of him isn’t so strong that they’ll go so far as to vote for Brady to get him out.

This is a pretty fascinating race.

Yes, it is. That undecided info is also quite interesting. The question is whether the Democrats can keep them moving their way and then turn those people out. From the company’s president…

“Things are starting to look a little more encouraging for Pat Quinn than they did earlier in the summer,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He remains personally unpopular but the minor candidates are starting to pick up some of the anti-Quinn instead of it all going to Brady.”

That can happen in a multi-candidate race. You slam the other guy, but those voters don’t automatically go to you if they have other options. It’s the biggest reason why Rich Whitney scored 10 percent four years ago.

* Methodology…

PPP surveyed 470 likely Illinois voters from September 23 to 26. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.5%.

* Crosstabs are here.

* Meanwhile, the pollster also had some very good news for Republicans Judy Baar Topinka and Dan Rutherford…

Notice, however, that they didn’t poll the two third-party candidates. Not good.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition and more news

Thursday, Sep 30, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Thursday, Sep 30, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Poll: Two-point race for governor? Giannoulias ahead?

Wednesday, Sep 29, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* CNN/TIME’s new poll of likely voters shows a very close race for governor…

…40 percent of likely voters back state senator Bill Brady, the GOP nominee, with 38 percent backing Gov. Pat Quinn, the Democrat’s nominee.

Fourteen percent support independent Scott Lee Cohen, while four percent support Green Party candidate Rich Whitney.

The crosstabs have Cohen scoring 16 percent of Democrats, 19 percent of independents and 6 percent of Republicans. They also have Quinn beating Bill Brady in Cook County 49-26 (with a whopping 17 percent going to Cohen), losing in the collars 53-25 (12 percent for Cohen) and losing Downstate 45-33 (15 percent for Cohen). Unlike other recent polling, Quinn is leading among women.

Weird.

* The poll also has Giannoulias ahead in the Senate race…

Forty-three percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they back Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, the Democrat’s Senate nominee, while 42 percent support Rep. Mark Kirk, the Republican standard-bearer.

Eight percent back Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones, while another four percent remain undecided.

Other polls of likely voters conducted this month also indicate the race is a dead heat.

“The key to this race may be Jones, whose support among liberals and independents is in double digits. Since 13 percent of the independents are currently opting for Jones, Kirk has a 16-point lead among that group,” CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said.

* Methodology…

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted September 24-28, with 1,504 adults, including 1,360 registered voters in Illinois and 828 likely voters, questioned by telephone.

The survey’s sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for likely voters.

Anybody wanna take a crack at this one?

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GOP poll has Hare behind; PPP poll has Kirk up by four, Obama upside down

Wednesday, Sep 29, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As I told subscribers the other day, I was polled on the 17th Congressional District race this week by The Tarrance Group, which is a GOP pollster. Expect the GOP to jump in with both feet now…

Rep. Phil Hare (D-IL), viewed in strong shape at the beginning of the year, now looks to be ins serious trouble, trailing his Republican challenger by one point. […]

Hare trails businessman Bobby Schilling (R) 44% to 43% in a Tarrance Group survey that was conducted Sept. 23-25. When asked if Hare deserved re-election or if it was time for someone else, just 35% of respondents [said] he should be re-elected.

Hare’s own polling has showed this to be a super-close race for a while, so this is no surprise. And the DCCC is now helping Hare…

The DCCC has reserved at least $200,000 worth of television time in the Quad-Cities. The Washington Post says it has also reserved time in the Springfield/Decatur market.

No ad is posted yet at the DCCC’s YouTube site. Stay tuned.

* There’s not a lot of news in the latest Senate numbers. Public Policy Polling’s fresh US Senate poll has Mark Kirk leading Alexi Giannoulias by four points. Unlike others, PPP actually included both third party candidates that have made it to the ballot. The crosstabs are here. From the pollster…

The Illinois Senate race continues to be very close, but because Mark Kirk is doing a better job of consolidating his base than Alexi Giannoulias is he’s taken a small lead after trailing by 2 points on PPP’s previous two polls of the race. Kirk is ahead 40-36 with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones at 8% and Libertarian Mike Labno geting 3%.

Our August poll found Kirk winning 74% of Republicans and Giannoulias getting 72% of Democrats. Now Kirk has expanded his support from his own party to 79% while Giannoulias’ support from his has declined to 68%. Kirk is getting 9% of the Democratic vote while only 2% of Republicans are planning to vote for Giannoulias. Kirk’s double digit lead with independents persists at 41-27.

This continues to be a race between two deeply unpopular candidates. Giannoulias’ favorability is 33/48 and Kirk’s isn’t much better at 33/47. 16% of voters have a negative opinion of both candidates and Kirk leads Giannoulias 35-16 with them, accounting for most of his overall lead. For many swing voters this is going to come down to choosing who they see as the lesser of two evils and right now Kirk is winning that vote.

A big factor to watch moving forward is whether Jones, the Green Party candidate, can maintain his support in the final 5 weeks as it becomes more clear that votes for him could push this race into the Republican column. On one hand Jones’ voters strongly dislike Giannoulias- 56% see him unfavorably to only 21% with a positive opinion. On the other hand they are a strongly Democratic leaning lot with 65% of them having voted for Barack Obama to only 28% who were McCain voters. If Jones fades Giannoulias will gain but if his support remains steady that’s going to be a big plus for Kirk.

Another factor that could result in the race tightening further as voters more firmly make up their minds is that 46% of the undecideds are Democrats compared to 27% who are Republicans and 27% who are independents. If those folks end up ‘coming home,’ that will move Giannoulias even closer.

This continues to be one of the closest- and depressing- Senate races in the country. Only 39% of voters say they’re excited about who they’re voting for with 45% saying they wish someone else was running. This is one race where you may end up seeing an enthusiasm gap on both sides.

* Methodology…

PPP surveyed 470 likely Illinois voters from September 23rd to 26th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.5%.

* As I told subscribers this morning, PPP also found that President Obama is upside down in his home state…

Barack Obama’s approval numbers have dropped into negative territory even with likely voters in his home state. 44% approve of the job he’s doing while 49% say they disapprove.

Obama’s home state approval numbers had before avoided some of the trends dragging down his numbers in other states but that’s no longer the case. Independents strongly disapprove of him with just 35% feeling he’s doing a good job to 57% unhappy. Whatever support he may have maintained with Republicans has now evaporated, with only 3% of them approving of him. And although his 80/12 spread with Democrats is still pretty solid it’s not what it had been previously.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Wednesday, Sep 29, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

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