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Monday, May 17, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Alexi Giannoulias campaign has two recent polls for our perusal. Click here for the memo.

The first poll was conducted April 27th through the 29th by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for the campaign…

Giannoulias 37
Kirk 43

The Giannoulias family bank was seized on April 23rd, so they gave the event some time to percolate and then ran their poll. Their result is pretty close to Rasmussen’s April 28th poll which had Kirk ahead of Giannoulias 46-38.

The Giannoulias campaign let things settle down a bit and went back into the field after running a few hundred thousand dollars in TV ads which attacked Mark Kirk and tied him to former President Bush. The ad started around May 4th…

Kirk quickly countered with his own TV ad buy…

The latest Giannoulias campaign poll was taken May 11th through the 13th - just after the ad buy concluded - and shows the race a tie…

Kirk 44
Giannoulias 44

We shouldn’t jump to too many conclusions until we see some independent polling, but there you go. From what I gather, the use of Bush in that ad pushed recalcitrant African-Americans and other Democrats towards Giannoulias. He’s been hovering at around 60 percent or so support there, but calling out Kirk as a “Bush Republican” apparently works enough to move numbers.

* In other campaign news, Gov. Quinn recently fed some red meat to the base…

Quinn advised his fellow Democrats to stand up to the likes of Palin.

“We’re not going to let a bunch of right-wing reactionary politicians tear down our state, tear down our president, tear down our country for political gain,” he said.

* Related…

* Social Media: How the Campaigns Stack Up

* Kirk calls for restoration of line-item veto

* Kirk: “Let the Girls Play”

* Green Party U.S. Senate Candidate Visits Peoria

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Even R2K now shows Kirk, Brady leading

Friday, May 7, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The last Research 2000 poll conducted in February for Daily Kos didn’t even come close to matching up with anybody else. R2K had Mark Kirk and Bill Brady both trailing. They’re somewhat more in line now.

One reason may be that their sample of senior citizens is larger than before, which they’ve taken heat for in the recent past. They had their 60+ at 16 percent before, when the 2006 gubernatorial exit polling had that number at 29 percent. This time, their sample size is up to 20. That’s still not good enough, so adjust for the Republicans accordingly.

The number in parentheses is R2K’s February result. The numbers in brackets are other recent polls, which can be found here…

Alexi Giannoulias (D) 38 (43) [38, 33, 37, 44]
Mark Kirk (R) 41 (36) [46, 37, 41, 41]

* And why they would put Scott Lee Cohen into a question and not Rich Whitney, who, unlike Cohen, is actually on the ballot, is totally beyond me. Anyway, they now have Quinn trailing Brady by a few points rather than leading Brady by eleven, which was completely blown away by other polling. Same thing goes for the parentheses and brackets. Results from those other polls are here…

Pat Quinn (D) 36 (46) [38, 33, 38, 37]
Bill Brady (R) 39 (35) [45, 43, 45, 47]

Pat Quinn (D) 35
Bill Brady (R) 39
Scott Lee Cohen (I) 3

Crosstabs…

* Trendlines…

* Methodology…

The Research 2000 Illinois Poll was conducted from May 3 through May 5, 2010. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

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Must-watch videos and some new poll results

Wednesday, May 5, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* If you want a pretty good summation of where the state budget plans are right now, then you must watch this video shot today by my intern Dan Weber of House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie taking questions from the press…

Related coverage…

The House Executive Committee [this morning] approved two versions of borrowing nearly $4 billion to make pension payments next year to state-backed systems. One would be a straight bond sale as Illinois has done in the past. The other is a more controversial plan to split the payment between a bond sale and basically issuing IOUs to the pension systems.

The latter idea would have to be approved by the Internal Revenue Service so the pension systems don’t jeopardize their tax-exempt status. The Quinn administration plans to seek that approval, but said it could take six months.

Republicans on the committee opposed both pension borrowing plans, which could be an ominous sign. At least one Republican vote is needed to approve a borrowing bill in the House. Rep. Barbara Flynn Currie, D-Chicago, said if Illinois can’t borrow for pensions, another $3.7 billion will have to be found elsewhere to balance the budget. That could result in deeper cuts to programs.

The tax amnesty would allow people who owe back taxes to the state to pay up during a six-week period and avoid penalties and interest. The plan is estimated to raise $250 million. Gov. Pat Quinn last week said he wasn’t inclined to support an amnesty program. Currie said the administration supported the bill Wednesday.

* Republican state Rep. Roger Eddy explained his opposition to the school voucher plan to my intern Barton Lorimor yesterday. Eddy has been getting heat from the Tribune and others for his opposition. Eddy is a school superintendent and has received thousands of dollars in contributions from teachers unions, and that’s being used against him. Barton grilled him politely, but thoroughly. Have a look…

* Gov. Quinn and the Campaign For Better Health Care unveiled the governor’s demand that the General Assembly pass a bill to implement the new federal health insurance law. Background is here. Watch…

* The Paul Simon Institute has released more polling results from their survey of southern Illinoisans. Click the pic for a larger image…

The full results are here. The Southern Illinoisan covered the poll…

Using a question construction that political scientists call a “feeling thermometer,” the poll asked respondents to describe their feelings toward groups or institutions on a 100-point scale, with ratings between zero and 49 representing “cool” feelings, a rating of 50 describing a “neutral” feeling, and ratings between 51 and 100 describing “warm” feelings. […]

“While our results confirm our assumptions that voters in the 18 southernmost counties of Illinois are more Republican and more conservative than voters in the rest of the state, the picture is more complicated than that,” said Charles Leonard, the visiting professor at the institute who supervised the poll.

“For example, the region has a long tradition of union membership in mining, manufacturing and the trades, and four of 10 voters here give warm ratings to unions. The average rating for unions is a relatively warm 53.3, which you might not expect in an electorate in which most partisan identifiers call themselves Republican,” he said.

According to an earlier question in the Southern Illinois Poll, 81 percent feel their area does not get its fair share of state spending. Southern Illinois voters may direct some of this resentment toward “People from Chicago,” as reflected in one question. Only 17 percent gave warm ratings to Chicagoans.

* Other breaking news…

* McPier’s Ochoa quits; top shows balk at proposed reforms, threaten to walk

* MAP college grants run dry, rejections to double

* Bill for Marion development awaits filing in Senate: Senate Bill 2093, sponsored by state Sen. Gary Forby, D-Benton, and state Rep. John Bradley, D-Marion, will authorize Sales Tax and Revenue (STAR) bonds for the project as an incentive to bring major destination development businesses into the area. The project was announced Saturday, just one day after a similar deal proposed by project developer Holland Construction of Swansea was killed over arguments and disagreements in its establishment.

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