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*** UPDATED x1 w/corrected numbers *** Rasmussen: Giannoulias over Kirk 44-41

Wednesday, Mar 10, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

*** UPDATE *** I just got off the phone with Fox Chicago. They accidentally misreported the numbers this morning. The actual numbers are…

Giannoulias 44
Kirk 41

Undecided 10
Other 5

The poll was taken March 8th (the same day as the Quinn/Brady poll) and the margin of error is +/-4.5.

[ *** End of update and text corrected below to reflect update *** ]

* A new Rasmussen poll has Alexi Giannoulias leading Mark Kirk 42-41 44-41.

Rasmussen hasn’t posted the numbers as of 10 o’clock this morning, but I’ll check back later. [UPDATE: Check back after four o’clock for the full poll results.]

So, what the heck is going on? Yesterday’s poll, presumably of the same set of voters, had the governor’s race a lopsided 47-37 Bill Brady lead over Gov. Quinn.

I originally thought that the Quinn/Brady poll was an outlier, but Rasmussen’s US Senate numbers are in line with recent polling…


Again, if Rasmussen polled the same people for US Senate that they polled in the governor’s race, then this is a screwy year, baby. Screwy.

* Anyway, back to the Senate poll. Here are Rasmussen’s numbers for the current poll with their February, December and October results in parentheses…

Giannoulias 44 (40, 42, 41)
Kirk 41 (46, 39, 41)

That’s a huge apparent swing for Giannoulias/Kirk in the past month - a month when the Democrat has been hammered incessantly over his family bank’s troubles. Today was no exception. Tribune

It’s usually understood that a Democratic president supports his party’s candidates for office, especially when the nominee in question is running for the U.S. Senate seat the president himself once held.

But today Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias’ campaign went out of its way to announce that he does, in fact, have the backing of the White House.

Giannoulias campaign sent out a news release highlighting remarks by President Barack Obama’s press secretary about the president’s support for Giannoulias, who not only is the Democratic nominee running for Obama’s old Senate seat but also is known for being a longtime personal friend of the president’s.

NBC5

Democratic Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias got a show of support from the Obama White House on Tuesday, but it wasn’t much of a show.

WaPo

Illinois state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, the party’s nominee for the state’s open Senate seat, visited the White House Tuesday and picked up a somewhat tepid endorsement from press secretary Robert Gibbs.

And Carol Marin predicted today that there will be pressure on Giannoulias to get out of the race

While Democrats may scoff at any notion of a latter-day Reagan revolution coming to the blue state of Illinois, they are hardly cheered by the challenges facing state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias in his U.S. Senate battle vs. Kirk.

Giannoulias has tried to get out in front of the seemingly imminent failure of his family’s Broadway Bank, but there’s no way to put that story behind him as long as the FDIC could move in at any time and take it over.

Giannoulias met with David Axelrod at the White House on Tuesday. At the same time, Republicans were sending out dispatches with a reminder of President Obama’s recent denunciation of “fat cats who are getting rewarded for their failure . . . bankers don’t need another vote in the U.S. Senate.”

Expect heat on Alexi to exit the kitchen.

Not with those numbers, he won’t.

  45 Comments      


Rasmussen: Brady over Quinn 47-37

Tuesday, Mar 9, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rasmussen has a new poll, but it’s a bit weird

Bill Brady 47
Pat Quinn 37

Here’s why…

The new survey finds Brady leading by 17 points among women but just three points among men.

We’ve known for a while that Quinn had trouble with women, but I cannot possibly see how the Democrat is trailing among women to a Republican by 17 points, while losing by just 3 among men.

The crosstabs (subscribers only) show Brady ahead of Quinn 50-33 among women and 45-42 among men. The crosstabs also show Quinn leading Brady among Democrats 63-21, while Brady leads Quinn among Republicans 82-10.

The only other poll we have is the Research 2000 for Daily Kos which had Quinn up 47-32 - an almost reverse image of this one. So, go figure.

Even Rasmussen has a bit of trouble with these results…

Brady’s numbers likely reflect at least a modest bounce from the news of his victory. Given Illinois’ strong Democratic leanings, the race is sure to tighten in the days ahead.

* Meanwhile, Rasmussen has support divided over whether the LG’s office should be eliminated

Should Illinois eliminate the position of lieutenant governor?
41% Yes
40% No
19% Not sure

  53 Comments      


Bank troubles make for tense Friday afternoons on Giannoulias campaign

Monday, Mar 1, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I don’t doubt this Bloomberg lede at all

Fridays are getting tense in the Chicago campaign office of Alexi Giannoulias, the Democrat seeking the U.S. Senate seat once held by President Barack Obama. That’s the day regulators announce which troubled banks they’ll close.

Broadway Bank in Chicago, owned by Giannoulias’s family, must attract at least $75 million in capital by late April to meet terms of a consent order with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. prompted by losses on commercial real-estate loans. Even if successful, the family could lose control before November’s election, dealing a blow to Democrats and an Obama friend.

“The last thing that Alexi Giannoulias needs right now is another round of bad news stories and stories raising questions about the family’s business,” said Stu Rothenberg, editor of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report. “The one thing you don’t want to spend in a campaign is a lot of time defending yourself.”

The Tribune explains why it will be so difficult for the bank to get itself out of this mess

Demetris Giannoulias, a Yale University economics and sociology graduate, said one of the few options for Broadway Bank to raise money is through private-equity firms.

But that won’t be easy. For one thing, many private-equity firms won’t bother doing deals of less than $100 million, he said. For another, banking regulations make it unappealing for private-equity firms to take more than, say, a 25 percent ownership stake. Exceeding that threshold would force such firms to register as bank holding companies. That would open up a typically secretive industry to more scrutiny in the highly regulated banking world.

A purchase of Broadway by another bank is virtually off the table, Demetris Giannoulias said. That’s because many healthy banks believe it makes more sense to wait until a lender fails before swooping in for the deposits, assets and branches. That way, the acquiring bank can usually strike a deal with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. that limits its losses.

Also, with only four branches, including its 5960 N. Broadway headquarters, Broadway has scant franchise value, providing little incentive for another institution to fashion a deal before its collapse.

Sen. Durbin said over the weekend that he believes Giannouolias will address all these issues soon…

“There are a lot of people who want to attribute all sorts of things to him, but most people in fairness will say, you know ‘he’s been away from this for four years, and banks are failing’ he needs to answer these questions, he’s prepared to answer these questions and it will happen soon.”

And this factoid from the Bloomberg piece can be expected to be part of that explanation

[Giannoulias’] campaign presented figures showing 9 percent of about $240 million in non-performing assets now on the bank’s books originated while he was there.

Watch Giannoulias being asked about the bank by the Sun-Times…

* You may have noticed the new polling app in the center column for the US Senate race. I’m gonna keep it for a while unless it slows down the site (as these sorts of apps often do). I’ll also be adding the gubernatorial trendlines as soon as some more polls are taken so we can have some trendlines.

* Related…

* Kirk: Waive $1M penalty against district

* Giannoulias works Kane audience to build momentum in Senate race

  39 Comments      


« NEWER POSTS PREVIOUS POSTS »
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Your moment of zen
* Showcasing The Retailers Who Make Illinois Work
* A walk down memory lane
* Springfield hosts the return of women’s pro baseball
* Roundup: Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias announces run for Chicago mayor
* Madigan flashbacks?
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* Good morning!
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Selected press releases (Live updates)
* Rep. Canty says she is ‘disturbed’ by LIG’s conduct
* Illinois becomes 19th state to beat back DOJ on voter database seizure attempt
* Yesterday's stories

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