* A new statewide poll taken by Research 2000 for Daily Kos has Pat Quinn and Alexi Giannoulias with significant leads over their GOP opponents. Full results here.
First, a big advantage for Quinn vs. Brady…
Pat Quinn’s favorables…
Bill Brady’s favorables…
* Giannoulias vs. Kirk…
Giannoulias’ most recent poll had him ahead 49-45. Research 2K’s last poll in January had the race at 38-30.
The poll of 600 likely voters had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. It was taken Feb. 22-24.
After a tougher primary race and whispers of a scandal surrounding a bank associated with Giannoulias’ family, Giannoulias is actually more popular than Kirk, according to the poll. Giannoulias is viewed favorably by 49% of respondents, while 34% view him unfavorably. Kirk’s fav/unfav rating stands at 42%/35%.
Despite a difficult climate for their party, Dems have been seeking to portray Kirk as the DC insider in the race. Among indies — those most likely to be disillusioned with DC — Giannoulias leads Kirk by the smallest of margins, 36-35%.
Kirk trounced challenger Patrick Hughes, who ran to his right, in the GOP primary. But his moderate creds, such as support for the Dem energy bill last spring, aren’t yet paying off in the general. He is capturing just 9% of the Dem vote in the poll, while Giannoulias holds 71% of Dems.
Meanwhile, IL’s most famous DC export, Pres. Obama, remains popular among the voters he once represented in the Senate. Fully 60% of ‘10 LVs view Obama favorably, while 36% have an unfavorable impression of him.
* I’m not the only one who can’t get a call-back from Forrest Claypool…
Cook County Commissioner Forrest Claypool, who’s retiring from that spot to go into private business, so far isn’t returning calls about a report in Capitol Fax that the White House wants him to replace Mr. Cohen on the November ticket.
Mr. Claypool has, frankly, seemed a bit burned out on public life lately, and winning in November is no sure thing. On the other hand, the commissioner is the best of buddies with presidential counselor David Axelrod, who can be mighty persuasive.
* Our afternoon video was taken by my intern Dan Weber. Rep. Elaine Nekritz (D-Northbrook) criticized the General Assembly this afternoon during a speech on the House floor for adjourning so early on yet another “go home” day. Nekritz said she thought that the GA was “fiddling while Rome burns.”
In December, Giannoulias was up by three points over Kirk. In October, the two men were tied at 41% each. In mid-August, Kirk held a modest 41% to 38% lead over Giannoulias.
* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?
* How would you rate the job Pat Quinn has been doing as Governor… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?
In Illinois, 45% rate their personal finances as good or excellent, while just 13% say they are poor. But only 20% think their finances are improving, while 42% say they are getting worse.
Forty-seven percent (47%) of Illinois voters believe it is possible to balance the federal budget without raising taxes, but 34% disagree. Forty-four percent (44%) favor an across-the-bard tax cut for all Americans, but 38% oppose such a tax cut.
Still, the majority (53%) of voters in Illinois believe cutting taxes is a better way to create jobs than increased government spending. Twenty percent (20%) believe increased spending is the way to go.
* Some people believe that the federal government has become a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests. What do you think? Has the federal government become a special interest group?
71% Yes
17% No
12% Not sure
* Do government and big business often work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors?
67% Yes
14% No
19% Not sure
Etc…
Illinois Survey of 500 Likely Voters Conducted February 3, 2010. Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 4.5 percentage points
Mark Kirk’s campaign put out a poll yesterday claiming to start the general election with a 12 point lead over Alexi Giannoulias, which was a little surprising to me since we found Alexi up by eight points just two weeks ago. I’ll give Kirk points for transparency though- he put the full results from the poll online.
Of course doing so makes it clear how the big lead in the poll was possible. Just 49% of those surveyed report voting for Barack Obama in 2008 to 42% who say they voted for John McCain. Obama won the state 62-37.
It is more than likely that the folks who turn out this fall will be less Obama friendly than the folks who turned out in 2008, but not to that extent. Our final Massachusetts Senate poll found the electorate there had supported Obama by a 56-37 margin, just a 7 point drop on the margin from his 62-36 victory there. Use a 59-41 Obama split on the Kirk poll and you get a 44-39 lead for Kirk, relatively similar to this morning’s Rasmussen poll.
Beyond that it’s important to note that more than 2/3rds of the undecideds in the Kirk poll were Obama voters- distribute those proportionally and you have a 50/50 race, which feels about right at this point. The last couple of weeks of the primary were a lot harder on Giannoulias than they were on Kirk, and his fate may be determined by the extent to which he is able to unify Democratic voters around him now that he’s the guy.
* Thinking now about the economy…Do you think that the 780 billion dollar economic stimulus legislation passed by Congress last year was a good idea, a bad idea or do you not have an opinion either way?
Good Idea 38.3
Bad Idea 46.0
No Opinion 15.7
* Thinking about the way the federal government has responded to the financial crisis in recent months, generally speaking, do you approve or disapprove of the expansion of the government’s role in the economy?
Approve 38.2
Disapprove 49.6
No Opinion 12.2
* Thinking now about health care…From what you have heard about House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Leader Harry Reid’s health care plans, do you think their plans are a good idea or a bad idea?
Good Idea 30.6
Bad Idea 52.1
No Opinion 17.4
…Adding… The DSCC just posted a new YouTube video attacking Mark Kirk. Rate it…
