More questions about that Simon poll
Thursday, Mar 1, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Background is here if you need it. From the Tribune’s Rick Pearson…
The [Paul Simon Public Policy Institute] survey, conducted Feb. 19 through Sunday, was made up of registered voters who identified their party preference to poll takers and said they were likely to vote in the March 20 primary. The sample was not weighted to reflect voters more likely to go to the polls based on past voting history and was not adjusted for historical racial and age demographics or turnout.
For example, African-Americans make up about one-third of the state’s Democratic primary vote. But of Democratic voters surveyed in the poll, only 19 percent were black based on those giving their race or ethnicity to pollsters. […]
Among African-American voters, a key demographic in Democratic elections, Pritzker had 45 percent to 22 percent for Kennedy and 6 percent for Biss, the poll showed. But the smaller sample of black voters also has a significantly larger margin of error.
In addition, Chicago voters cast one-third of the state’s Democratic primary votes in the 2016 presidential primary election. But only a quarter of the voters in the poll who said they would vote in the Democratic primary were from Chicago.
The Tribune almost never writes about anybody else’s polls, so this story makes me wonder if the paper is ever going to do its own poll. Usually, it does two and would have published one by now.