The following is a summary of findings from a live interview telephone survey conducted among 600 likely voters in Illinois. Respondents were reached on both landlines and mobile phones. Interviews were conducted September 27-29, 2016. The sampling error for this survey is ±4%.
• Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth has weathered nearly a million dollars of false attacks on TV during the month of September alone and has expanded her lead over Senator Mark Kirk to 46% to 37%.
• These improvements for Duckworth took place without any commensurate advantage in the presidential race. The presidential race remains steady in Illinois.
The current poll shows Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump 52%-35%. Our August 1-4 poll showed Clinton leading Trump 51%-32%.
Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth continues to expand her lead over incumbent Senator Mark Kirk, 46%-37%. As the chart below indicates, this nine-point lead is an increase from the August 1-4 poll that showed Duckworth besting Kirk 44%-37%, a seven-point lead. Duckworth remains ahead among constituencies critical to Kirk’s success in November, including Independents (45%-30%) and among Veteran households (44%-40%). Moreover, she maintains strong leads among core Democratic constituencies of African American (70%-8%), Hispanic (62%-26%), and women (46%-36%) voters.
In September, Kirk and Republican special interest groups spent nearly one million dollars attacking Duckworth both Downstate in the Chicago media market with false ads about her record on Veterans and commitment to fighting terrorism. Despite these attacks, Duckworth maintains a 29-point margin over Kirk for which candidate is dedicated to helping Veterans (44%-15%) and an 8-point lead on Is someone we can count on to keep America safe (30%-22%).
Not only is Duckworth pulling farther ahead but voters have increasing negative impressions of Kirk. As the chart above shows, his favorable rating has steadily eroded since the summer and he is now five points underwater.
With less than six weeks until Election Day, Democratic challenger and former Congressman Brad Schneider leads incumbent Republican Congressman Bob Dold, 46%-41% in the rematch contest for the 10th Congressional District of Illinois. […]
o Dold’s favorable rating remains objectively low at 34%-29%. Voters know him but they certainly do not like him.
o His job rating is weak, with just 38% of voters rating his performance as “excellent” or “good” and 35% rating his “not so good” or “poor.”
o Moreover, despite Dold’s repeated attempts to mischaracterize Schneider’s position on the Iran deal to persuade Jewish voters, they remain solidly with Schneider.
Not only does Schneider hold a five-point lead, but the political environment also strongly favors him:
o President Barack Obama is increasingly popular, with a favorable rating of 60%-31% and a job rating of 61%-37%. Both of these measures are better than in 2012 when Schneider first defeated Dold.
o Donald Trump is a major liability for Dold. He is nearly universally unpopular with a favorable rating of 25%-64%, with 49% rating him very unfavorable. Hillary Clinton has a 27-point lead over Trump in the race for president, 59%-32%.
The problem for Schneider is that he’s so badly trailing the top of the ticket.
Respondents were reached on both landlines and mobile phones (51% landlines, 49% mobile). Interviews were conducted September 28-29, 2016. The sampling error for this survey is ±4.9%.
* Meanwhile, from Illinois Review…
DOLD SNUBS GOP NOMINEE TRUMP AND PARTY PLATFORM IN LATEST AD
Congressman Bob Dold (IL-10) is very proud of his independence from the Republican Party’s presidential nominee and the GOP’s conservative leadership in the U.S. House. He boasts of how he’s parted with their pro-Second Amendment and pro-life positions in his new ad:
