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Blowout or overblown? *** UPDATED x1 ***

Monday, Oct 20, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post thinks GOP freshman Congresscritter Peter Roskam is one of a new batch of Republicans “in real races” because the bottom has dropped out on the Republicans.

If Roskam really is in trouble, then we’re in for a landslide of epic proportions - like 1932 or 1936. In which case, there’s nothing much that Republicans can do except pray.

* Progress Illinois has funded a new poll in a different, much more pro-Obama district, and found the Republican incumbent is leading

Dan Seals (D): 41%
Mark Kirk (R): 47%
Undecided: 12%

More…

In the middle of last week, the Washington D.C.-based polling firm Bennett, Petts & Normington conducted the above survey for Progress Illinois in the 10th Congressional District. The results are very similar to the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll conducted two weeks earlier, which also found Democratic challenger Dan Seals down by six points (44-38%).

A few toplines…

Presidential results…

Barack Obama (D): 56%
John McCain (R): 35%
Undecided: 9%

400 likely voters, conducted from October 15-16, 2008, MoE plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

*** UPDATE *** PI has a new poll in the 11th Congressional District, which for whatever reason didn’t include the Green Party candidate…

Debbie Halvorson (D): 50%
Martin Ozinga (R): 29%
Undecided: 22%

More…

The 11th Congressional District poll conducted for Progress Illinois by the Washington D.C.-based polling firm Bennett, Petts & Normington found a 21-point lead for Democrat Debbie Halvorson, similar to the 19-point gap in the internal poll she released on Friday (which included Green Party candidate Jason Wallace).

Republican Marty Ozinga ’s unfavorables (30%) continue to outweigh his favorables (20%), which certainly spells trouble. Independents made up 42 percent of the polling universe in our poll and they also appear extremely wary of Ozinga, with only 14 percent saying they support him and 41 percent still on the fence.

Some toplines…

Presidential…

Barack Obama (D): 49%
John McCain (R): 38%
Undecided: 13%

45% said “The economy and jobs” was the most important problem.

* More congressional stuff…

* NEW: Joliet Herald News - Halvorson will best represent our interests

* Kirk, Seals spar over Iraq, women’s rights

* Kirk, Seals debate in 10th District race

* Conaty calls Kirk’s drilling claim “a bit disingenous”

* Immigration a Key Issue in Congressional Race

* Oberweis hopes to connect with voters on economy

* Foster running at a frantic pace - at home and in D.C.

* Thousands turn out to vote early in Peoria

* Morgenthaler “Won’t Commit to Moving” to IL6

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Monday, Oct 20, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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This just in… Halvorson poll has her ahead by 19

Friday, Oct 17, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* 3:31 pm - Democrat Debbie Halvorson’s congressional campaign has just released a new poll, which shows her leading Republican Martin Ozinga by 19 points. I’ve asked the Ozinga campaign to provide any recent numbers that they might have. From the executive summary…

* Halvorson leads Ozinga by a 48% to 29% margin, with Green Party candidate Jason Wallace at 5%. Halvorson has built a sizeable 19-point lead, but still needs a few points of expansion in order to win.

* Halvorson more than doubled her lead since mid-September when she led by 8 points (43% Halvorson / 35% Ozinga). Although Ozinga has made substantial investments in cable television and mail, Halvorson’s message about strengthening the middle class and fixing the national healthcare crisis has moved the race in her favor.

* The candidates have similar name identification (63% Halvorson / 59% Ozinga), but Ozinga has a high unfavorable rating that makes it difficult for him to expand his support. More voters are unfavorable towards Ozinga than favorable (27% favorable / 32% unfavorable). Ozinga’s favorable rating is 13 points lower than Halvorson’s and his unfavorable rating is 10 points higher than Halvorson’s (40% favorable / 22% unfavorable).

* Since September, Democrats have gone from a small deficit on the generic ballot (38% Democrat / 40% Republican) to a small advantage (38% Democrat / 36% Republican). Barack Obama has taken a 2-point lead (43% Obama / 41% McCain) after trailing by 5 points in mid-September.

* Details…

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=400 live telephone interviews with likely 2008 general election voters in Illinois CD-11. Interviews were conducted between October 10-13, 2008. Respondents were selected at random with interviews apportioned geographically based on expected voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.9% at a 95% confidence level.

…Adding… From the Ozinga campaign…

“So Debbie Halvorson and three liberal special-interest groups spend over $2 million in false and personal smear ads against Marty Ozinga, and she’s still under 50%? Halvorson is clearly vulnerable to a late Ozinga surge once her shameful record of rubber-stamping Blagojevich’s failed agenda sinks in with voters in these final weeks.”

…Adding a thought… Since there are three candidates in the race, Halvorson may not need to hit 50 percent.

* Related

Democrat Debbie Halvorson holds a slight lead in fundraising in the race to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Jerry Weller in Congress.

Halvorson, a Democrat from Crete, reported raising $580,000 between July and October, compared to Republican Martin Ozinga’s $563,000. Green Party candidate Jason Wallace of Normal raised $750. […]

“We think it’s a neck-and-neck race,” Ozinga campaign manager Andy Sere said.

According to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Halvorson raised $580,000 between July and Oct. 1, while spending more than $1.2 million.

Halvorson had $274,545 in the bank.

* 4:26 pm - Watch Congresscritter Judy Biggert completely lose her train of thought during a debate yesterday on Chicago Tonight. It ain’t pretty…


She didn’t do too well earlier in the debate, either, appearing, without lots of success, to access talking points in her mind to fit the question…


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A big, fat goose egg for Blagojevich

Friday, Oct 17, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I told subscribers about a new Rasmussen Reports poll earlier this week, but I figured it was time to clue in the blog as well.

Rasmussen asked: How do you rate the way that Rod Blagojevich is performing his role as Governor? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Zero percent rated Gov. Blagojevich performance as “excellent.”

Zero.

As we used to say in Germany: “Nix, Nein, Frankenstein.”

Last month, 3 percent rated Blagojevich’s performance as “excellent,” which ain’t much, but it was at least something.

* Here are this month’s Blagojevich job approval results with last month’s in parentheses…

Excellent 0 (3)
Good 4 (9)

Fair 29 (28)
Poor 65 (60)
Not sure 1 (0)

Notice that his “poor” rating has risen from 60 to 65 percent.

Oof.

* The Illinois Campaign for Political Reform’s David Morrison comments over at Illinoize

A 2000 General Election exit survey I found on-line suggests that 32% Illinois voters held a favorable view of then-Gov. George Ryan, which was after the first two dozen Operation Safe Roads convictions but still nearly three years before he was indicted and four years before his conviction. It would seem that George Ryan was 8 times as popular as Gov. Blagojevich.

* Blagojevich’s rating is even below President Bush’s, according to Rasmussen: How do you rate the way that George W. Bush is performing his role as President? Excellent, good, fair, or poor?

10% Excellent
15% Good
11% Fair
64% Poor
0% Not sure

* Another question from Rasmussen: Have things in Illinois gotten better, worse or stayed the same since Rod Blagojevich became governor?

5% Better
67% Worse
25% Stayed the same
4% Not sure

* These sorts of stories aren’t helping

The Blagojevich administration still isn’t saying how many people might be affected by an ill-fated health insurance program the governor launched last year.

A day after a Cook County judge ordered the administration to dismantle the FamilyCare expansion program, the administration wouldn’t say how many people might be left in the lurch from the decision.

‘’We are currently reviewing the decision and are determining how many people would be affected, but the governor is committed to making sure that these families continue to get the insurance they need,'’ said Annie Thompson, spokeswoman for the Illinois Department of Healthcare and Family Services.

It is not clear why the administration hasn’t said how many people are enrolled in the program, which offered state-backed health insurance to people earning 400 percent of the poverty level, or up to $83,000 annually for a family of four.

What a disaster.

* Speaking of disasters, an overwhelming majority of respondents said they were cutting back on their holiday spending, which generally drives the nation’s economy…

* This holiday season, will you spend more or less on gifts than you did last year?

6% More
69% Less
23% About the same
2% Not sure

* More poll results…

* Should the Illinois State Constitution be amended to give voters the opportunity to recall statewide elected officials?

57% Yes
23% No
20% Not sure

* Do you favor or oppose Chicago’s bid for the 2016 Summer Olympic games?

64% Favor
26% Oppose
10% Not sure

* Senate Election

Sauerberg 31%
Durbin 62%
Other 0%
Not sure 7%

* 2008 Presidential General Election Match-Ups

McCain 39%
Obama 56%
Other 0%
Not sure 5%

* In terms of how you will vote for President, are you primarily interested in National Security issues such as the War with Iraq and the War on Terror, Economic issues such as jobs and economic growth, Domestic Issues like Social Security and Health Care, Cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion, or Fiscal issues such as taxes and government spending?

50% Economic Issues
19% National Security Issues
9% Domestic Issues
8% Cultural Issues
8% Fiscal Issues
6% Not sure

The economy is everything.

Discuss.

[Illinois Survey of 500 Likely Voters Conducted October 13, 2008. Margin of Sampling Error, +/- 4.5%.]

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Friday, Oct 17, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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« NEWER POSTS PREVIOUS POSTS »
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Indiana's super-sweet Bears offer
* It’s just a bill
* Catching up with the congressionals
* Jackson endorsement mess takes a turn for the worse on Stratton (Updated x3)
* WIU forced to borrow from its foundation to ease cash flow shortage
* C'mon
* Yeah, no
* Unprecedented independent expenditures in state races
* Showcasing The Retailers Who Make Illinois Work
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* Good morning!
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Selected press releases (Live updates)
* Live coverage
* Some weekend congressional campaign updates
* Yesterday's stories

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