[Note from Rich: This is another piece from my intern Kevin. Constructive criticism would be helpful.]

* The special election to replace Dennis Hastert is set for Saturday, and both candidates vying for his spot are turning up the heat.

As of Feb. 25th campaign disclosure statements show that Bill Foster has loaned his campaign $1.3 million, and Oberweis an astounding $2.3 million. In a district where as of the 2000 Census the median per-capita income was $23,406, an infusion of a million or two can give a candidate a considerable size blow horn.

Foster and Oberweis are trading barbs over whose literature is more misleading:

Democrat Bill Foster said Republican rival Jim Oberweis is misleading the public with a recent campaign mailing, but Oberweis responded with an accusation that Foster’s “pro-illegal immigration allies” are breaking election law with a recent hit piece.

The mailings at the center of the dispute between the candidates seeking to replace retired House Speaker Dennis Hastert are among the torrent of ads flooding mailboxes ahead of Saturday’s special election in the 14th Congressional District.

The Foster campaign on Wednesday objected to an Oberweis mailing that purports to show how Foster’s tax policies would affect typical district residents.

The issue is none of the four families pictured in the ad are actual district residents, as a disclaimer in fine print at the bottom of the ad makes clear.

* The Foster campaign used this as an example to illustrate a history of shady campaign tactics employed by Oberweis. In his 2006 Gubernatorial bid he was criticized for sending out mail pieces with fake newspaper headlines. Then there was this little blemish last year over his 2004 Senate run:

The Federal Election Commission fined Oberweis $21,000 in 2007 for an incident during his 2004 campaign for the Senate, in which he appeared in an ad for the Oberweis Dairy business.

* Oberweis responded with his own criticism of Foster’s mailers. A recent mailing that appears to be targeted to Hispanic residents of the district hits Oberweis for his strong opposition to illegal immigration. The ad claims:

“Oberweis wants to scare people, and then turn them against Latino families” and “Since Oberweis started his anti-immigrant and anti-Latino speeches – hate crimes in the United States against Latinos have gone up 35%.”

Oberweis campaign spokesman Bill Pascoe said the ad violates election law because it does not clearly state who it is from. It says “Sponsored by Latino Neighbors Against Hate Crimes.” No record of such an organization can be found, and the Foster campaign denies any knowledge of the ad.

* Your thoughts on the mailing mess, and it’s impact on the special election?

*** UPDATE *** [From Rich] Via Kos, a Roll Call story on a new Survey USA poll…

The House seat recently vacated by former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) is in danger of flipping to the Democrats in Saturday’s special election, according to a poll conducted this week for Roll Call.

In the poll of 517 likely special election voters, conducted by Survey USA exclusively for Roll Call on March 3 and 4, physicist Bill Foster (D) led dairy company executive Jim Oberweis (R) 52 percent to 45 percent. The poll had a 4.4-point margin of error.

Foster appeared to test particularly well with women and independent voters, who preferred him by a 3-2 margin. The survey also suggested Foster had locked down his party’s base, taking 97 percent of likely Democratic votes and perhaps stealing 10 percent of likely GOP votes.

I’m skeptical of any special election polls because I doubt anyone knows who will really bother to show up, but SUSA is a pretty decent outfit, so there you have it.

*** UPDATE 2 *** [From Rich] Yesterday, Charlie Cook declared the special election to be a toss-up. Today, the Rothenberg Political Report did the same…

The race to succeed former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) is too close to call, and we’ve changed our rating of the race from Lean Republican to Toss-Up, in advance of Saturday’s special election.

Jim Oberweis (R) and Bill Foster (D) have both spent heavily from their own pockets, and both the NRCC and DCCC are involved as well. A March 3-4 SurveyUSA poll for Roll Call showed Foster leading the race 52%-45%, but some private polling contradicts the Roll Call numbers.

Republicans are at serious risk of losing the seat, but they could benefit from turnout in the Republican-leaning district. It would be a symbolic victory for the Democrats, and NRCC Chairman Tom Cole predicted that if his party were to lose the seat there would be a flood of stories spelling out the end of the GOP. At least he knows what he’s in for.

*** UPDATE 3 *** [From Rich] The SurveyUSA poll is now online…

If the special election for the US House were today, would you vote for…(names rotated) Democrat Bill Foster? Or, Republican Jim Oberweis?

52% Foster (D)
45% Oberweis (R)
3% Undecided

Is your opinion of Bill Foster … favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, are you unfamiliar with Bill Foster?

42% Favorable
31% Unfavorable
22% Neutral
5% Unfamiliar

Is your opinion of Jim Oberweis … favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, are you unfamiliar with Jim Oberweis?

38% Favorable
49% Unfavorable
12% Neutral
1% Unfamiliar

If your opinion of Dennis Hastert is…

48% Favorable
35% Unfavorable
16% Neutral
0% Unfamiliar

If your opinion of Rod Blagojevich is…

12% Favorable
74% Unfavorable
14% Neutral
0% Unfamiliar

If your opinion of Barack Obama is…

49% Favorable
35% Unfavorable
15% Neutral
1% Unfamiliar