Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

News outlet uses loaded poll questions to make broad policy assumptions

Wednesday, Jun 8, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Capitol News Illinois…

A new survey released this week suggests Illinoisans are more moderate on the issue of abortion than the current Democratic-controlled General Assembly, but it is unclear whether that will cost Democrats votes in November.

The poll by the Chicago-based firm Ogden & Fry – which is owned by a Republican candidate for Cook County Board – found that 40 percent of those responding describe themselves as “pro-choice with some restrictions,” including limits on late-term abortions, while nearly 25 percent describe themselves as “pro-life with exceptions” for things like rape, incest and protecting the life of the mother.

That puts nearly two-thirds of those surveyed somewhere in the middle of the spectrum, with only 21.5 percent describing themselves as 100-percent “pro-choice” and 14 percent identifying as 100-percent “pro-life.”

First, there is a world of difference between being pro-choice with some exceptions and pro-life with a few limited exceptions.

* I passed on that poll result because of the wording…

Abortion is one of the most divisive topics of the day. How do you consider yourself?

100% Pro-Life
Pro Life with exceptions (rape, incest, life of mother, etc.)
Pro Choice with some restrictions e.g. partial-birth abortions, late term abortions, etc.
100% Pro Choice (legal until the moment of birth including partial-birth abortions)

“100% Pro-Life” is not defined, but all other stances are. Also, using “etc.” in a poll question is a bit odd. And, “until the moment of birth”? Yeah, not loaded at all. There was also this question…

Are you more or less likely to support a candidate who believes an elective abortion should be legal until the moment of birth?

I’m not sure what that actually means, but 51.9 percent said they’d be less likely. That’s usually not enough to move actual numbers in campaigns, however. You normally need a much higher result than that to see an impact on real life votes.

* There are some other significant poll results, though. Back to the article…

Perhaps more importantly, 78 percent of those surveyed said they believe parents should be notified before their minor child receives an abortion, including 35 percent who supported a judicial bypass in situations where parental notification is not possible or not in the child’s best interest.

Even among self-identified Democrats, 61.6 percent said they support some level of parental notification requirement.

Repealing PNA has never polled well, but there might be a political way to manage it. For example, I told subscribers recently about a mailer attacking Rep. Mike Zalewski (D-Riverside) for voting against repealing PNA…

When the Illinois legislature took steps to protect access to abortion care for all people in Illinois, Mike Zalewski voted with every Republican in Springfield to block younger women from freely accessing reproductive care. His vote protected outdated parental notification requirements – even when a person is raped or the victim of incest – putting the health and safety of young women at great risk.

* Anyway, more results…

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as President?

Approve 50%
Disapprove 48%
Unsure or never heard of him 2%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job JB Prtizker is doing as Governor?

Approve 51%
Disapprove 46%
Unsure or never heard of him 3%

The article had numbers on both of those people which didn’t match up with my math. You can do the math yourself if you’d like.

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Irvin on hot seat: Proft has poll showing Bailey lead; Proft’s new TV ad; Pritzker’s new TV ad; Irvin doesn’t recall saying Trump is “bigoted racist”

Monday, Jun 6, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Proft touted this poll on his show earlier today…

ILGOP Gov race polling:
Fabrizio & Lee
6/1-2
600 likely. +/-3.5%

Bailey 27
Irvin 20
Sullivan 13
Rabine 12

+Bailey moved 13 points in the last month from -6 to +7.
+Irvin fav/unfav moved 23 points from +17 to -5.

Will the GOP finally nominate a conservative reformer? 3 weeks.

— Dan Proft (@DanProft) June 6, 2022

Proft said on his show this morning that the same pollster had Irvin up by 6 points a few weeks ago. Fabrizio, Lee and Associates is Donald Trump’s pollster.

* Background is here. A new Proft PAC ad…

* And here’s a new TV ad paid for by Gov. JB Pritzker’s campaign…

Script…

On May 24th, 8:07 pm. Officers are called to this Aurora marijuana store where police reports say a drunk woman has punched and kicked a security guard. The woman threatens ‘I’m going to call my boyfriend. He’s the mayor of Aurora.’ Minutes later, Richard Irvin arrives. And the official police report says Irvin assured his girlfriend that quote, ‘The charges would be taken care of.’ Richard Irvin, the more we learn the worse it gets.

You know it’s aimed at Republican primary voters because they use the phrase “marijuana store.” /s

* WTTW last month…

But text messages written by Irvin in 2018 during the middle of the Trump presidency, and obtained by WTTW News, appear to show Irvin has very strong feelings about Trump, and they are not positive. The messages offer some insight into aspects of Irvin’s political beliefs his campaign has been reticent to address.

“And I hate Trump too!” Irvin wrote. “He’s an idiot!!!”

Shortly after, Irvin added, “and a bigoted racist.” […]

Irvin then clarifies his position on Trump once again: “And although I don’t hate Trump the man, I do hate what he stands for.”

Well, Jim Niedelman reminded Irvin about the texts and asked “Are you afraid of the consequences that could come with taking a stand against Donald Trump?” Irvin’s response…

Listen, I don’t remember sending those texts since 2018 or 2019. What I can say is, that I disagree with certain parts of that administration. However, you know, I think everybody can agree and I agree wholeheartedly that that administration has done great things for Americans and for America. You know, reducing taxes, making sure we had economic development when he created opportunity zones and employed economic development in areas that need it most. And supporting our men and women of law enforcement.

We’ve used all those tools in the city of Aurora. You know, I have used all those tools in the city of Aurora as mayor, to effectively to help push our city forward. And that’s exactly what JB Pritzker is scared of. He’s scared of someone who’s actually effectively got great results.

And if you compare us, about comparing records, if you compare my record of success to JB Pritzker’s record of failure, there’s nothing to say about it. We have the answer of who the next Governor of the state should be. Which is why he’s spending so much money in a Republican primary to make sure that me as a candidate doesn’t doesn’t face him in the general because he knows that I’ll beat him, and he knows that we’ll change how government works in the state of Illinois and will get us back on track to take our state back.

Please pardon all transcription errors.

* From a candidates’ forum in McHenry County featuring Darren Bailey and Gary Rabine and a surrogate for Paul Schimpf…

Irvin seemed to receive the most criticism from the other candidates. Bailey reiterated recent barbs directed at Irvin, calling him a “corrupt Democrat.” Solomon said any of the Republican candidates, minus Irvin, would make a good governor.

The candidates’ thoughts on immigration was discussed seemingly more than any other topic, covering almost half of the entire forum. Candidates expressed an interest in allowing counties to continue to detain immigrants in partnership with the Immigration Customs Enforcement agency, and also ending sanctuary cities.

McHenry County in particular had one such contract with ICE, until a state law required the county to release its detainees and cancel the agreement.

Bailey, Rabine and Solomon all expressed support in building a wall at the country’s southern border.

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