Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Polls
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      About     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact Rich Miller
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here. To inquire about advertising on CapitolFax.com, click here.
When a “fact check” is no such thing

Tuesday, Sep 7, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Ever since the Daily Herald lost its political reporter (Eric Krol and then Joe Ryan) and its Statehouse bureau chief (John Patterson), its campaign stories have really gone downhill.

A great case in point is the paper’s latest piece on Republican 10th Congressional District candidate Bob Dold and Social Security reform.

The issue first heated up when Dold posted this on his Facebook page and then deleted it

Congressman Paul Ryan has taken a lot of heat for his Social Security plan, which would allow people under the age of 55 to invest a portion of their FICA tax

Offers workers under 55 the option of investing over one third of their current Social Security taxes into personal retirement accounts, similar to the Thrift Savings Plan available to Federal employees.

That’s pretty much the same idea that got President George W. Bush is such hot water after the 2006 campaign. And it’s very much like Dold’s own plan which he wrote about before the GOP primary in his Tribune questionnaire

Additionally, I would propose allowing a portion of Social security payments (not more that 25%) to be put into Government authorized individual retirement accounts that would be able to be passed to heirs if not used

Dold now says on his website only that he would allow people under 55 to invest a “small portion” of their FICA taxes.

Ryan says his plan isn’t privatization, and that’s the only source the Daily Herald used in its alleged fact check…

THE FACTS: The official website for Ryan’s proposal, roadmap.republicans.budget.house.gov, details its concepts for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and other programs. It also includes a section called “Setting the Record Straight” that seeks to debunk accusations about the plan, as well as another section with answers to frequently asked questions.

According to the website, the Roadmap would not privatize Social Security. The personal accounts it proposes would be managed by a public board.

It’s not difficult to find other sources which claim that Ryan wants to privatize Social Security. But Ryan’s statement is presented as the one and only “fact.”

And instead of quoting Dold’s very own Chicago Tribune questionnaire which cited the 25 percent figure, the Daily Herald instead delved into the semantics of Dold’s original Facebook post and the he said/she said which followed.

I know I’m repeating myself this morning, but this is yet another reason why blogs can often be far better vehicles for reading about politics (or anything else) because they are much more willing to use material from different sources than newspapers are. It’s just stupid that the DH didn’t quote Dold’s Tribune response. It makes zero sense. Their fact check is rendered completely meaningless. I’m not sure why they even bothered.

* To make matters worse, the DH completely botched the admittedly stale deleted Facebook post controversy. This is the explanation the Dold campaign gave me for removing that Paul Ryan post

It’s Facebook. We put things up and take things down all the time. We’re not announcing policy on Facebook.

And this is what the Dold campaign just told the Daily Herald…

As for the disappearing Facebook post, a Dold spokeswoman said the comment simply was replaced by one about a different issue, the proposed Metra STAR line. Dold stands by the original posting’s message, she said.

Democrat Dan Seals’ campaign watches that Dold Facebook page pretty closely and they say they’ve never seen the Republican delete a post except for that Ryan post. And you don’t “replace” Facebook posts. You can delete them and add a new post, but there’s no such thing as replacing them. It’s a goofy explanation and the Daily Herald “fact check” completely let them skip away clean. Also, if they don’t post about policy on Facebook, why did they post about Metra?

* Meanwhile, the Dan Seals campaign claims its latest poll has the Democrat with a large lead. From a press release…

– DOUBLE-DIGIT LEAD: Seals holds a 13-point lead over Republican Bob Dold, 49% to 36%. This margin is slightly larger than Seals’ 8-point lead in May (46% to 38%). [http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2010/07/poll_watch_dems_find_glimmers.html]

– WINNING INDEPENDENTS: Seals leads by 5 points among self-identified independent voters, 39% to 34%.

– STRONGER NAME ID: Seals’ name identification remains strong at 74% compared to his opponent, who was recognized by just 47% of respondents. Seals leads in both Cook and Lake Counties and leads with almost every demographic subgroup.

– LARGE CROSSOVER VOTE: In addition to his strong base of Democratic and independent support, Seals is also winning 16% of voters who say they plan to support Mark Kirk in the 2010 U.S. Senate race, pointing to a diverse coalition of bi-partisan support.

The campaign’s polling memo is here. A We Ask America poll taken in early August had this race much closer, with Seals leading Dold by just 3 points. But there have been some problems with that poll’s accuracy.

* Down-ballot campaign roundup…

* Hare, Schilling agree to 2 debates, but where?

* Cullerton says Democrats will retain state Senate

* Lots of Lawmakers on the Ballot, Few Races Close

* A look at some of the hottest state legislative races in the suburbs

* Legislative debates slated at Decatur Tech Academy

* Washington: Forrest gains, but can he topple Dem?

* Segvich supporters back Daley challenger

* Cook County Board Candidate Admits Conviction

* Felicia Page finds niche in Macon County State’s Attorney’s office

* Maurice Davis begins run in Macon County State’s Attorney’s office

* GOP to open Vermilion County HQ on Tuesday

  6 Comments      


Putting the numbers in context

Tuesday, Sep 7, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The problem with just about all media polls is that the write-ups almost never mention other surveys taken by different pollsters. That means you don’t get any context, and it can lead to outliers being touted as the only definitive results seen by hundreds of thousands of readers/viewers.

The Chicago Tribune is one of the worst offenders. Their numbers, by policy, are all you’ll ever see in their polling stories. And though they’ve improved somewhat over the years, their refusal to release all of their crosstabs means they are still operating in a 20th Century dead tree world. (This is not a knock on the paper’s reporters, mind you, but on corporate policy.)

Take, for instance, the governor’s race. The Tribune has this as a five-point race with Bill Brady leading Gov. Pat Quinn 37-32, with Scott Lee Cohen scoring 4 percent and Green Party nominee Rich Whitney and Libertarian Party candidate Lex Green at 2 each.

That’s a slight tightening from a recent Public Policy Polling survey which had the race at nine points, 39-30 Brady over Quinn, and an even more recent Rasmussen poll which found that, with leaners, the race was eight points, 49-41.

This suggests that Quinn’s recent TV ad buy touting Brady’s pro-gun views might have moved some numbers. But that could also just be a function of different polling techniques, considering that Brady’s unfavorable rating was only 19 percent in the Trib poll. The Tribune obviously does not push voters very hard to make up their minds, and not including “leaners” at this advanced stage is a big mistake.

* You also won’t see the Tribune mention stuff like the TPM PollTracker


* Anyway, to the write-up

More telling, barely half of Democrats say they support Quinn’s call for higher taxes, while a quarter of them side with Republican Brady, who has said he won’t detail his proposed budget cuts until after the Nov. 2 election.

At the same time, more voters back Brady’s call for more widespread business tax cuts to spur job creation than get behind Quinn’s reliance on passage of the state’s first public works construction program in more than a decade.

But a telling sign for Quinn may be voter reaction to one of his most recurring themes — that he worked to restore trust in state government following the Blagojevich scandal. Under Quinn, lawmakers enacted the first-ever campaign-donation limits, though some criticized them for having loopholes. The General Assembly also agreed to put on the November ballot a proposed constitutional amendment allowing a limited form of recall of a governor.

Yet 70 percent of the state’s voters said they don’t believe Quinn has done enough to curb corruption in Illinois government, including nearly six of 10 Democratic voters and about three-quarters of those who classify themselves as independents.

It would be nice to see the wording of the questions at hand and some crosstabs, but no dice.

* And today’s Tribune has some worrying news for all Illinois Democrats

Currently, 37 percent of voters identify themselves as Democrats and 27 percent say they’re Republicans — a 10-percentage-point differential that is about half the advantage Democrats had entering the 2008 election. Another 31 percent call themselves political independents.

This is real trouble as well…

Despite national polls forecasting a potential wave for Republicans that could let them recapture the House, 45 percent of Illinois voters said Democrats should maintain control of Congress, compared with 37 percent who back the GOP.

As we’ve discussed before, so many Illinois congressional districts are so heavily gerrymandered to favor the Democrats that this 8-point margin signifies serious problems ahead.

And this ain’t good either…

More than 6 in 10 lack confidence in Democratic-run Springfield, though the angst isn’t limited to Illinois borders. Fully 55 percent of the voters say they don’t have much or any confidence that the federal government will make the right decisions affecting them, according to the poll of 600 registered Illinois voters conducted Aug. 28-Wednesday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

But this is kinda meaningless, depending on how the question was worded…

A total of 83 percent of the voters said Blagojevich’s conviction will make no difference in whether they oppose or support Democratic candidates on the ballot.

* Another recent Tribune poll shows more Democratic weakness

A majority of the 600 Illinois registered voters surveyed still gave a positive review to Obama’s performance as president — but it is barely a majority. In all, 51 percent said they approved of the job he has done as president while 39 percent disapproved.

I didn’t see any regional breakdowns online, but we can probably infer that he ain’t doing well in the suburbs and Downstate. PPP’s latest poll had Obama’s approval at 49 percent and disapproval at 46 percent. Rasmussen’s survey had Obama’s approval at 53 and disapproval at 47. An NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll had the president’s approval at 45 percent.

* Related…

* Brady expected to pick up Fraternal Order of Police endorsement

* Employment Takes Center Stage In Race For Governor

* Politicians Turn Out for Labor Day Rally: QUINN: This election on Nov. 2, it’s all about the economy, it’s all about jobs, it’s all about a governor, who believes, as I do, in the minimum wage.

* GOP gov. hopefuls take on Obama

* Republicans Headed for Big Pick-Up of Governor’s Seats This Year

* Bad economy favors GOP in governor election projection

* Gubernatorial candidate Brady visits, shakes hands; campaign ratcheting up

* Sebelius visits Ill. for Quinn fundraiser

* GOP, Dems gear up for fierce political season

* Rich Whitney Seeks Victory, Not Green Party Growth

  25 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition

Tuesday, Sep 7, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

  Comments Off      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Tuesday, Sep 7, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

  Comments Off      


« NEWER POSTS PREVIOUS POSTS »
* Isabel’s afternoon roundup
* Another day, another loss for Tom DeVore
* Pritzker expresses frustration at some opposition to quantum facility
* Pritzker: 'Scaffolding of a deal' in place for Bears bill; urges legislature to move faster
* Built For Illinois. Built With Transparency.
* E-bikes regulation bill passes Senate
* SB 1486 Raises Premiums And Reduces Consumer Choice
* Sen. Rezin: 'There is a broken concept in Springfield that the taxpayers’ money belongs to the government"
* National Financial Literacy Month: Credit Unions Support Members At Every Stage
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* Good morning!
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Selected press releases (Live updates)
* Live coverage
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
April 2026
March 2026
February 2026
January 2026
December 2025
November 2025
October 2025
September 2025
August 2025
July 2025
June 2025
May 2025
April 2025
March 2025
February 2025
January 2025
December 2024
November 2024
October 2024
September 2024
August 2024
July 2024
June 2024
May 2024
April 2024
March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS | SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax | Advertise Here | Mobile Version | Contact Rich Miller