|
When a “fact check” is no such thing
Tuesday, Sep 7, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * Ever since the Daily Herald lost its political reporter (Eric Krol and then Joe Ryan) and its Statehouse bureau chief (John Patterson), its campaign stories have really gone downhill. A great case in point is the paper’s latest piece on Republican 10th Congressional District candidate Bob Dold and Social Security reform. The issue first heated up when Dold posted this on his Facebook page and then deleted it… ![]() Congressman Paul Ryan has taken a lot of heat for his Social Security plan, which would allow people under the age of 55 to invest a portion of their FICA tax…
That’s pretty much the same idea that got President George W. Bush is such hot water after the 2006 campaign. And it’s very much like Dold’s own plan which he wrote about before the GOP primary in his Tribune questionnaire…
Dold now says on his website only that he would allow people under 55 to invest a “small portion” of their FICA taxes. Ryan says his plan isn’t privatization, and that’s the only source the Daily Herald used in its alleged fact check…
It’s not difficult to find other sources which claim that Ryan wants to privatize Social Security. But Ryan’s statement is presented as the one and only “fact.” And instead of quoting Dold’s very own Chicago Tribune questionnaire which cited the 25 percent figure, the Daily Herald instead delved into the semantics of Dold’s original Facebook post and the he said/she said which followed. I know I’m repeating myself this morning, but this is yet another reason why blogs can often be far better vehicles for reading about politics (or anything else) because they are much more willing to use material from different sources than newspapers are. It’s just stupid that the DH didn’t quote Dold’s Tribune response. It makes zero sense. Their fact check is rendered completely meaningless. I’m not sure why they even bothered. * To make matters worse, the DH completely botched the admittedly stale deleted Facebook post controversy. This is the explanation the Dold campaign gave me for removing that Paul Ryan post…
And this is what the Dold campaign just told the Daily Herald…
Democrat Dan Seals’ campaign watches that Dold Facebook page pretty closely and they say they’ve never seen the Republican delete a post except for that Ryan post. And you don’t “replace” Facebook posts. You can delete them and add a new post, but there’s no such thing as replacing them. It’s a goofy explanation and the Daily Herald “fact check” completely let them skip away clean. Also, if they don’t post about policy on Facebook, why did they post about Metra? * Meanwhile, the Dan Seals campaign claims its latest poll has the Democrat with a large lead. From a press release…
The campaign’s polling memo is here. A We Ask America poll taken in early August had this race much closer, with Seals leading Dold by just 3 points. But there have been some problems with that poll’s accuracy. * Down-ballot campaign roundup…
|
|
Putting the numbers in context
Tuesday, Sep 7, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller * The problem with just about all media polls is that the write-ups almost never mention other surveys taken by different pollsters. That means you don’t get any context, and it can lead to outliers being touted as the only definitive results seen by hundreds of thousands of readers/viewers. The Chicago Tribune is one of the worst offenders. Their numbers, by policy, are all you’ll ever see in their polling stories. And though they’ve improved somewhat over the years, their refusal to release all of their crosstabs means they are still operating in a 20th Century dead tree world. (This is not a knock on the paper’s reporters, mind you, but on corporate policy.) Take, for instance, the governor’s race. The Tribune has this as a five-point race with Bill Brady leading Gov. Pat Quinn 37-32, with Scott Lee Cohen scoring 4 percent and Green Party nominee Rich Whitney and Libertarian Party candidate Lex Green at 2 each. That’s a slight tightening from a recent Public Policy Polling survey which had the race at nine points, 39-30 Brady over Quinn, and an even more recent Rasmussen poll which found that, with leaners, the race was eight points, 49-41. This suggests that Quinn’s recent TV ad buy touting Brady’s pro-gun views might have moved some numbers. But that could also just be a function of different polling techniques, considering that Brady’s unfavorable rating was only 19 percent in the Trib poll. The Tribune obviously does not push voters very hard to make up their minds, and not including “leaners” at this advanced stage is a big mistake. * You also won’t see the Tribune mention stuff like the TPM PollTracker… * Anyway, to the write-up…
It would be nice to see the wording of the questions at hand and some crosstabs, but no dice. * And today’s Tribune has some worrying news for all Illinois Democrats…
This is real trouble as well…
As we’ve discussed before, so many Illinois congressional districts are so heavily gerrymandered to favor the Democrats that this 8-point margin signifies serious problems ahead. And this ain’t good either…
But this is kinda meaningless, depending on how the question was worded…
* Another recent Tribune poll shows more Democratic weakness…
I didn’t see any regional breakdowns online, but we can probably infer that he ain’t doing well in the suburbs and Downstate. PPP’s latest poll had Obama’s approval at 49 percent and disapproval at 46 percent. Rasmussen’s survey had Obama’s approval at 53 and disapproval at 47. An NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll had the president’s approval at 45 percent. * Related…
|
|
Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
Tuesday, Sep 7, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
|
|
Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
Tuesday, Sep 7, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller
|
| « NEWER POSTS | PREVIOUS POSTS » |










