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*** UPDATED x1 *** GOMB says Senate budget plan is unbalanced

Wednesday, Jan 18, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Subscribers were told about this development early today. AP

Gov. Bruce Rauner’s office estimates a Senate proposal to break a nearly two-year Illinois budget deadlock would still leave the treasury billions of dollars in the red.

The review obtained Wednesday by The Associated Press shows tax increases floated in the Senate plan would increase revenue by $1.7 billion. But it says it adds more than $4 billion in spending. […]

But the budget office estimates the compromise Senate Democrats and Republicans put forth last week would only reduce the expected deficit by $1 billion [down to $4.3 billion]

As I told subscribers, after two years without a real budget nobody really cares about this fiscal year’s deficit as long as next fiscal year is balanced.

* The trouble is, GOMB’s analysis claims that next year’s proposal is out of whack, too

The governor’s budget team says that $4.3 billion deficit for the current financial year would fall to $2 billion in the next one as money begins to roll in from the taxes proposed in the Senate’s budget framework, according to a copy the Chicago Tribune obtained.

The projected FY 18 deficit is actually $2.3 billion.

* More

The math breaks down like this: Because of a series of court orders and laws that’s kept most of government spending on autopilot, the budget office estimates the state will spend $35.1 billion in the financial year that ends July 1. The analysis projects the Senate plan would bring in an extra $1.7 billion during that period, which would leave the state with $35.4 billion to spend. But the Senate plan calls for spending an additional $4.4 billion this year — including nearly $2 billion on employee health care that’s gone unfunded during the long-running impasse — hence the $4.1 billion deficit, according to the analysis.

Again, policymakers don’t care a huge amount about this fiscal year because it’s already half over, so coming up with a complete, balanced solution by the end of this June would be too painful on both the revenue and spending sides. There is a big push, however, to get a balanced budget by the end of next fiscal year. That’s understandable and desirable.

* Subscribers have a copy of the complete GOMB analysis (plus an analysis of the Senate’s “reform” proposals), but here’s what it says about FY 18

Annualizing the new revenue sources in the Senate Plan for FY18 brings in an additional $5.4 billion in revenue compared to previous GOMB revenue estimates. This would bring total available general funds resources to $38.8 billion.

The Senate Plan does not include appropriations for FY18. As such, spending estimates rely on spending estimates previously contained in the GOMB 5 Year Report issued in November of 2016, which placed FY18 expenditures at $40.6 billion. Several items in the Senate Plan require adjustments to this spending level, including $650 million in pension savings, $85 million in procurement savings, an increase of $221 million related to CPS pension parity, and $1.1 billion in debt service for the $7 billion on General Obligation Bonds included in the plan to pay down old bills. With these adjustments, FY18 spending would total $41.1 billion.

With $38.8 billion in available resources, the projected spending total of $41.1 billion would lead to an FY18 budget deficit of $2.3 billion.

The Senate Democrats disputed these numbers yesterday, but haven’t yet put that on paper.

*** UPDATE ***  From the Senate President’s spokesman…

We’ll check it out and see if changes need to be made.

The goal all along has been to produce a balanced, sustainable budget. We filed the legislation to invite input and constructive criticism.

The proposals remain under construction. We’ll look into this and take steps as needed.

  55 Comments      


Moody’s: Get a sustainable budget already

Wednesday, Jan 18, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Moody’s Analytics has prepared yet another economic forecast for the state. The whole thing is worth a read, but here’s some of it

Illinois is one of the Midwest’s weakest links, reflecting both soft job creation and the state’s descent into fiscal quicksand. The state trails the nation in most metrics and political gridlock is imposing significant economic costs. The jobless rate has resumed its descent after rising late last year into early 2016, but much of the decline owes to a sharp drop in the labor force and population losses. […]

To be a solid-performer longer term, the state must navigate its fiscal challenges without doing lasting damage to its business climate. The state’s demographics present it with another challenge, as an aging population coupled with a trend toward fewer workers hampers job and income gains, which are forecast to be below average over the extended forecast horizon. […]

Aside from private industries, the state’s fiscal problems have worsened. Repeated credit downgrades will harm Illinois’ economic climate. […]

Illinois’ budget problems are its biggest headache, and an escalation of the state’s fiscal problems and weakness in the public sector suggest limited upside potential even as other parts of the economy improve. […]

Business climate. Illinois, and Chicago in particular, is in general an appealing location to corporate headquarters and companies that need highly skilled workers and are willing to pay for top talent. Despite Illinois’ advantages, however, uncertainty stemming from the state’s fiscal crisis threatens to discourage firms from locating or remaining in the state. This is a concern since manufacturing in the state is already sputtering, and downstream industries have been strong performers for Illinois during the recovery and in years past.

Although lawmakers are mindful of their state’s business tax climate, in the past they have often opted to entice businesses with lucrative tax incentives and subsidies instead of broad-based reform aimed at reducing the above-average personal and corporate income tax burdens prevalent in the state. There is a recurring pattern of such behavior in Illinois, and it is not clear whether business incentives will generate enough money to pay back these costs. A far more effective method to improve the business tax climate over the longer term is to focus on more broad-based income tax reforms and provide firms more certainty as to what their future tax burdens might be. This can be accomplished only by getting the overall budget situation on a more sustainable, and certain, path. […]

The state’s longer-term outlook is tarnished primarily by its budget woes and weak population trends, not its high costs relative to nearby states. Business costs in the state are lower than they are nationally and have trended downward for the past few decades. Costs are lower than those in Wisconsin and Michigan but higher than those in neighboring Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky and Missouri. Firms in Illinois tend to pay less in taxes and their utility costs are below average, but labor is on the expensive side. By and large, though, business costs are pretty favorable and lower than those in states that have similarly large metropolitan areas with unique features that appeal to businesses such as California and New York.

  14 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Budget and reform analyses of Senate proposal

Wednesday, Jan 18, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Our sorry state

Wednesday, Jan 18, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* David Leonhardt at the NY Times

(T)he earnings gap between four-year college graduates and everyone else has soared in recent decades. The unemployment rate for college graduates today is a mere 2.5 percent. […]

The share of lower-income students at many public colleges has fallen somewhat over the last 15 years.

The reason is clear. State funding for higher education has plummeted. It’s down 19 percent per student, adjusted for inflation, since 2008, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The financial crisis pinched state budgets, and facing a pinch, some states decided education wasn’t a top priority.

“It’s really been a nightmare,” said Diana Natalicio, UTEP’s president and herself a first-generation college graduate. “The state does not recognize — and it’s not just in Texas — the importance that the investment in public education has for the economy and so many other things. Education was for me, and for many of the rest of us, the great opportunity creator.”

* The chart…


  36 Comments      


Caption contest!

Wednesday, Jan 18, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I couldn’t resist, but please keep it clean…

  80 Comments      


I hadn’t thought of it that way

Wednesday, Jan 18, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* But he’s right…


Heh.

* Meanwhile, Greg Hinz updated his story from yesterday to say that Bobby Rush isn’t going

According to his office, “The congressman will not attend as his wife is hospitalized.”

* And Greg points to this tweet by Jan Schakowsky…


* Back to Gov. Rauner

Gov. Bruce Rauner told reporters Tuesday that his choice to skip President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration wouldn’t have a negative impact on Illinoisans.

“People understand in Washington and around the country that Illinois has big challenges and they know, and respect the fact, that I am one hundred percent focused in Illinois, working on getting a balanced budget with structural change to the system,” Rauner said. “And they respect that and they appreciate it.”

Yeah. People all over the country know he’s working so very hard. /snark

More

“I do have close, good working relationships with a number of incoming members of the Trump administration, as well as members of his transition team, and I’ve worked with the Vice President-elect for years,” Rauner said. “There’s no issue of us not having a good, solid working relationship with the incoming administration.”

Rauner noted that he “worked hard” to form a close relationship with the outgoing Obama administration, including former Secretary of Education Arne Duncan and Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker. He now hopes to work with the Trump administration on infrastructure and schools in Illinois.

He worked so hard forming close ties to Penny Pritzker that she’s now “all in” for one of Rauner’s top opponents. /snark2

  26 Comments      


Question of the day

Wednesday, Jan 18, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Demonstrations at the Statehouse are currently banned above the 1st Floor

No demonstrations are allowed above the first floor of the Capitol Building; this includes singing, chanting or shouting in a loud voice of the type that could interfere with the business conducted in the building.

* Definition of demonstrations

“Demonstration” means demonstrating, picketing, marching, rallying, selling non- commercial printed matter or materials, moving in procession, holding of vigils, singing, chanting, or shouting in a loud voice of the type that could interfere with the business conducted in the building, and all other forms of public demonstrative activity that involve the communication or expression, orally or by conduct, of views or grievances, engaged in by one or more persons, the conduct of which has the effect, intent, or propensity to draw a crowd or onlookers within 100 feet of the buildings named in Section 2005.10, on the Capitol Complex grounds, or within the building or the Capitol. Demonstration shall also mean demonstrating, parading, picketing, speechmaking, holding of vigils, sit-ins, or other activities, conducted for the purpose of demonstrating approval or disapproval of governmental policies or practices (or the lack thereof), expressing a view on public issues, or bringing into public notice any issue or other matter. However, nothing in this Part shall be construed to govern lobbyists or lobbying as defined by the Lobbyist Registration Act [25 ILCS 170], nor shall a demonstration mean the peaceful contact or discussion by one or more persons with elected representatives during a legislative session, or with executive branch officials, concerning their view on a public or personal issue.

* The Question: Should this demonstration ban be rescinded? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.


bike trails

  113 Comments      


Rauner: “We need a capital plan”

Wednesday, Jan 18, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Today in Champaign, Gov. Rauner said he wants a capital plan…

I’d like to get a balanced budget and a capital bill with a balanced budget, and put a lot of resources into our universities across the state, but especially U of I… The U of I is a major economic engine for this state and I want to take them to a whole other level… We need a budget to do it, we need a capital plan to do it…

He didn’t say when he’d like to roll out a capital plan or how he intends to pay for it, however.

* Raw audio…

  62 Comments      


Exelon files yet another appeal on Byron plant

Wednesday, Jan 18, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Every year since 2012, Exelon has appealed the property tax assessment on its Byron nuclear power plant. The 2012 case finally made it to the Illinois Property Tax Appeal Board this past spring when it held a hearing that lasted six weeks. The board hasn’t yet issued a ruling because lawyers are still arguing the case.

And so, right on schedule, Exelon has filed yet another appeal, which seems a bit greedy since Exelon just got a big state bailout.

Exelon Generation officials say the $546 million assessment, set in the fall by county Supervisor of Assessments Jim Harrison, is about 48 percent too high. Their appeal sets the value at $295 million. […]

Harrison set the plant’s value $64 million higher than last year’s assessment of $482.4 million because Exelon officials succeeded in late 2015 in getting the licenses renewed for the two reactors for 20 more years. […]

Exelon paid more than $33.7 million in real estate taxes in 2016 to 11 taxing bodies: Ogle County, Rockvale Township, Byron School District, Oregon School District, Oregon Park District, Byron Fire District, Rock Valley College, Byron Public Library District, Byron Museum District, Byron Forest Preserve District, and Kishwaukee Community College.

The Byron School District received the largest share – $18.6 million.

  14 Comments      


The Pepsi challenge

Wednesday, Jan 18, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Southern Illinoisan takes a look at the proposed sugary drink tax

As frequent retailers themselves, [John Rains, executive vice-president and general manager of Pepsi Mid-America in Marion] said, schools might also feel the sting.

“Schools rely on businesses in the area to support a lot of their programs and businesses won’t be in a position to be as supportive,” he said. “And the schools themselves if they’re going to (use the products) for resale are going to be taxed.”

Overall, Rains said he would prefer legislators to focus on spending.

“Rather than continue to put burdensome taxes on the consumers, they need to look at running the state in a more professional and businesslike manner,” he said. “You just can’t tax, you have to look at how you’re spending money.”

Easier said than done, John. My advice would be to either suggest ways to cut spending or increase revenues, because this tax is most definitely in the mix.

  36 Comments      


Put up or shut up

Wednesday, Jan 18, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Illinois Policy Institute

One of the most foolish things politicians can do to an economy suffering from a weak recovery and a shrinking tax base is to pass tax hikes. Hitting residents and businesses when they’re struggling risks sending a faltering economy into a tailspin.

And for an economy edging toward recession, tax hikes are even worse.

Unfortunately, a multibillion-dollar tax hike is exactly what Illinois politicians are proposing for a state economy that’s been remarkably weak and is now showing signs of recession-like shrinkage.

Illinois’ falling tax collections hint at looming recession

According to the December 2016 monthly briefing from the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, or COGFA, Illinois’ corporate income tax collections are down $386 million in the first six months of fiscal year 2017, when compared with the same time last year.

Personal income tax revenues are off by $189 million. And sales tax collections are also weak, up only $45 million.

State revenues are down by nearly 5 percent year to date, and when all sources are taken into account, total revenues are down nearly 7 percent.

There’s no doubt that tax hikes right now aren’t optimal. But they never are.If the economy was going strong I assume the “Institute” would warn against harming the economy’s success.

But how would the “Institute” balance the budget? They don’t say. Drastic spending cuts will make things worse as well, after all. Much worse, considering how badly the budget is out of balance.

And it’s also quite possible that the impasse, with its reduced spending, is doing damage to the state’s economy.

So, let’s just get on with it, already. There’s nothing fiscally conservative about allowing unpaid bills to pile up by the billions year after year.

  62 Comments      


Survey finds substitute teacher shortage

Wednesday, Jan 18, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Kiannah Sepeda at the AP

Public-school administrators are scrambling to find substitute teachers for as many as 600 Illinois classrooms a day, a survey finds.

The review released Tuesday by the Illinois Association of Regional Superintendents of Schools revealed that teachers call in more than 16,500 absences each week. School officials have trouble finding replacements for nearly 20 percent of them.

Association president Jeff Vose, who is regional school superintendent for Sangamon and Menard counties, said that a 2012 increase in substitute teacher certification requirements may have discouraged some educators from applying to be fill-in teachers. The law increasing certification requirements raised the application fee to $100, bringing applicants’ total registration costs to around $200. It also added a background check to ward off concerns about “educator misconduct with students,” which accounts for roughly $50 of the total fee.

“Districts are desperate to get quality individuals,” Vose told The Associated Press in a phone interview Tuesday. “However, at some point, they’re just searching for a body to be in front of the classroom.” […]

Schools are amplifying recruiting efforts, helped along by a new law set to take effect next year. That law, signed by Gov. Bruce Rauner last week, will reduce the application fee by $50 and remove a pending basic skills test requirement.

It might also help to pay them more because as the economy has improved people have found full-time gigs. But, hey, money is always tight.

* The survey results are here. From the summary

The survey of nearly 400 districts found:

    * Schools have to cover more than 16,500 absences each week

    * Schools cannot find substitutes to cover more than 3,000 absences each week, or about 18 percent of total absences (600 classrooms per day)

    * Total absences are more common in schools in the Chicago suburbs. Substitute teacher shortages are more of an issue outside Chicagoland, led by southern and western Illinois.

The survey found that districts in far southern Illinois can’t find substitutes to cover teacher absences 26 percent of the time every week. The number was lowest in the Chicago area, but 16 percent of absences still can’t be covered there.

  50 Comments      


Pot, meet kettle

Wednesday, Jan 18, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* We’ll get back to the rest of this Tribune article a bit later this morning about the Senate’s “grand bargain” plan, but I wanted to highlight the end of it first

Both chambers would have to agree on any budget plans before they’d reach Rauner’s desk. The division in strategy between the chambers already has raised some doubts.

“My experience has been, all the past budget plans we have passed have been in a bipartisan fashion, with all four caucuses and the governor engaged. Until we do that, based on what I’ve seen so far, nothing is going to happen,” said Rep. Fred Crespo, a Democrat from Hoffman Estates who serves on a House appropriations committee. “We can’t divide it this way, it just doesn’t work.”

That’s kinda rich coming from a guy in a caucus which as recently as last May attempted to unilaterally ram through a partisan budget that went nowhere in the Senate.

The House Democrats are infamous for their “take it or leave it” budget plans, often sending a package across the building and then adjourning.

* Yes, Crespo’s right that everyone will eventually have to be “engaged.” As I’ve already said, the Senate’s proposal should be seen as a bipartisan counter-offer to the governor. If it passes (and that’s still an “if”), the House can then put its own stamp (partisan or bipartisan) on the proposal or come up with its own counter-offer or just do nothing and everything collapses.

But don’t talk to us about “dividing” it this way. After what happened last year, the House Democrats have no room to criticize.

  28 Comments      


Proft gets another cash infusion from Uihlein

Wednesday, Jan 18, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

Liberty Principles PAC, the political committee run by radio host and former candidate for governor Dan Proft, reported a $500,000 contribution from Richard Uihlein, CEO of the packaging supply company Uline. The group works to elect Republican candidates to seats in the Illinois Capitol.

The group is also seen as a possible threat to Republicans who vote for an agreed tax plan.

Proft’s PAC ended 2016 with about $437,000 in the bank and $275,000 in debt, split between his gubernatorial campaign PAC and the Illinois Opportunity Project, a group he founded that spent hundreds of thousands of dollars last year backing Rep. Ken Dunkin (D-Chicago).

  26 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Wednesday, Jan 18, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

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More Illinois Democrats say they won’t be attending Trump inauguration

Tuesday, Jan 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

A growing number of Democratic lawmakers from Illinois — as well as Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner — are skipping President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration Friday.

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel will not attend the swearing-in. Democratic Reps. Mike Quigley of Chicago and Dan Lipinski of Western Springs also will not attend, their spokespeople said Tuesday. Another Chicago Democrat, Rep. Luis Gutierrez, said earlier this month that he would miss the inauguration but planned to attend the Women’s March on Washington on Saturday. […]

Quigley, who is new to the growing list of officials who are sitting out the swearing-in, “fully supports the peaceful transfer of power, but has chosen to spend the…week with those who have elected him,” his spokeswoman Tara Vales said in a statement. […]

Lipinski, another no-show, said in a statement he preferred to work in his district and spend time with his wife rather than watch the ceremony in D.C. and attend parties there. […]

Rep. Jan Schakowsky of Evanston is hearing from people urging that she sit out the swearing-in, her spokesman, Jeronimo Anaya-Ortiz, said Tuesday. “We’ve had a big response on social media asking the congresswoman not to attend, and to stand with John Lewis on boycotting the inauguration,” he said.

Sounds like Schakowsky won’t go, either. We’ll see.

* Hinz

Other Democrats, including both Sens. Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth, and Reps. Cheri Bustos, Bobby Rush and Brad Schneider say they will be there, but some made it clear their attendance is more about respect for the presidency than for the man who will succeed Chicago’s Barack Obama. […]

Foster’s spokeswoman said he had not yet decided whether to attend. Kelly’s spokeswoman said that she currently expects to be there, “but that might change.” […]

“I will be attending the inauguration this Friday out of respect for the office of the presidency and our constitutional process,” said Raja Krishnamoorthi, a freshman from the northwest suburbs. […]

“I will attend the presidential inauguration ceremony out of respect for the office and to bear witness to our nation’s peaceful transition of power,” [Rep. Brad Schneider] said. “I hope my presence on Friday underscores my commitment to be vigilant and to hold the incoming administration accountable to our laws and Constitution on behalf of the people of the Tenth District.”

WaPo is keeping a running list. Click here.

* Related…

* Greg Hinz: Trump and Blagojevich share much more than big hair

  34 Comments      


Question of the day

Tuesday, Jan 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From my good friend and talented musician/song-writer Tom Irwin…

Greetings everyone:

We just launched a Kickstarter campaign (Jan. 13 thru Feb. 13) at the above link to support a batch of my songs called All That Love. The recording (CD & LP) has John Stirratt of Wilco producing with an incredible group of musicians.

The Kickstarter link takes you to my page on their website and explains in detail what we are doing and how to navigate the rewards and pledges. Please feel free to share with others online, on social media and word of mouth.

Thanks so much for your support. Very much appreciated.

Sincerely, Tom

Tom’s Kickstarter page is here. Go help the guy out.

* From Tom’s pledge page

$150 or more

Your very own song

I will write you a song on the subject of your choosing plus you get an All That Love CD & T-shirt - Plus your name in video of Thank You For Loving Me performed live by Tom Irwin & John Stirratt

That’s so tempting.

* The Question: What subject should I choose? Don’t forget to explain. Thanks!

  29 Comments      


What could possibly go wrong?

Tuesday, Jan 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sun-Times

Police Supt. Eddie Johnson said Tuesday that of all the Chicago Police Department’s failings highlighted in the Department of Justice report released last week, it’s that his officers are not receiving adequate training that pains him most.

“We owe it to our police officers to give them the best training possible because that makes them better when we go out on the street,” said Johnson, a 28-year police department veteran. “And to think that we failed them is a difficult pill to swallow. It really is.” […]

Asked about making timely reforms to police officer training in light of the city’s plan to hire 1,000 new officers in the coming months, Johnson said the process should not be rushed.

“I don’t think the focus should be made on making reforms quick enough. I think what we should focus on is making reforms the right way,” he said.

So, I take it that the newly hired cops won’t be properly trained either?

*Sigh*

* Background

The Chicago Police Department is stuck in the Stone Age — from training that relies on 35-year-old videos to outdated pursuit tactics that imperil suspects, officers and innocent bystanders, according to a scathing 161-page report just released by the Justice Department. […]

The report takes aim at a series of “unsound tactics” that cops have used for decades to pressure or pursue suspects. The report argues that those tactics — used on the street though they’re not official department policies — can alienate communities and, in many cases, lead to unnecessary violence.

At the top of the list: foot chases. The feds found police routinely chased people simply because they’d run away and not because they were suspected of a particular crime. On many occasions, the result was a deadly shooting. […]

An instructor showed students one video on the use of deadly force that was made about 35 years ago — long before the Supreme Court rulings that currently govern cops’ use of force. The investigation found one in six rookies were able to correctly answer basic questions about the use of force.

The police department’s field-training program is hampered by major problems, investigators found. There are too few training officers and the voluntary job, with a $3,000-a-year stipend, isn’t viewed as a path to promotion and is “a highway to nowhere,” one supervisor said.

  18 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** The tide shifts a bit

Tuesday, Jan 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Back when Pat Quinn was governor and before he raised taxes, some folks were saying Quinn should follow California Gov. Jerry Brown’s example and allow state services to deteriorate so much that people would literally beg for a tax hike. Quinn wouldn’t do something like that. His heart just wasn’t in it.

But after over two years without a real budget and services crumbling everywhere, opinion at the newspaper editorial board level is starting to change. For instance, this is from the usually tax-averse Jacksonville Journal Courier

Compromise seems to be a dirty word in Springfield. Not on the Senate side, though, where bipartisan efforts are being made to end the budget gridlock. A proposal being floated would increase personal income tax from 3.75 percent to 4.95 percent to generate $4.1 billion. Unlike the House Democrats’ call for a tax increase without strings attached, the Senate plan would blend in an acceptable dose of reform for such things as unaccountable spending, pensions and workers’ compensation.

Although we have been critical in the past of tax hikes without a purpose — or with a “pretend” purpose, such as the massive lame-duck hike of 2011 — it’s clear something has to be done if Illinois is to survive.

Pretend purpose? The state hadn’t made its pension payments out of GRF in years and had been borrowing billions to make the payments for two years while bills were piling up fast.

And if 2011’s tax increase was “massive,” this one is even bigger, raising the personal rate to 4.95 percent and adding on a sugary beverage tax and eliminating some business tax incentives.

But, hey, whatever gets you through the night.

* Rockford Register Star

A Rockford casino is part of a package of bills that would provide a budget for the state of Illinois. A state income tax increase, minor pension reforms, school funding and workers’ compensation reforms, a phased-in minimum wage increase, a two-year property tax freeze and a bill that would make it easier for local governments to consolidate are in the mix. […]

We think there’s a market for a casino here that would increase the gaming business statewide.

If there were no market, why would the Isle Casino Hotel in Bettendorf, Iowa, organize two bus trips a month from locations in Rockford and South Beloit? And let’s not forget all the local folks who like to drive to Ho Chunk Gaming in Madison or the casino in the Wisconsin Dells.

They want that casino so bad they’ll take those tax hikes and like ‘em.

* From a January 10th Chicago Tribune editorial

In the Senate this week, President John Cullerton and Republican leader Christine Radogno attempted a grand bargain toward a full-year budget. But there wasn’t enough time. They promised to pursue, in good faith, a comprehensive budget deal as soon as new lawmakers are seated. We will hold them to it.

So, after railing against the 2011 tax hike they’re gonna push hard for a 2017 tax hike? Will wonders never cease?

*** UPDATE ***  The Belleville News-Democrat, no fan of tax hikes, also looked kindly on the Senate plan, as did, to a somewhat lesser extent, the Champaign News-Gazette.

  21 Comments      


Vallas says CSU will not be absorbed

Tuesday, Jan 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Today…


The Chicago Tribune editorial board urged a “full-blown takeover by a stronger university” just the other day, mentioning UIC as a possibility.

* More from today’s press conference

Vallas, known for transforming urban schools districts, called CSU’s financial and structural problems a “microcosm” of what he endured as CEO of Chicago Public Schools from 1995 to 2001. But he said he’s confident the university can endure a turnaround.

“Our objective here is to not only preserve Chicago State but to help transform it into the dynamic university that the community needs,” Vallas said. “Universities are economic development engines and there’s absolutely no reason why Chicago State cannot be one.”

Let’s hope so. And maybe the governor and those remaining legislative Democrats who are resisting a deal will finally realize the damage they’ve done to our “economic development engines” around the state these past two years.

  30 Comments      


We’ve come a long way, baby

Tuesday, Jan 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a 2015 local government-related bill introduced at the behest of Gov. Bruce Rauner

Prohibited subjects of bargaining. 


(a) A public employer and a labor organization may not bargain over, and no collective bargaining agreement entered into, renewed, or extended on or after the effective date of 
this amendatory Act of the 99th General Assembly may include, 
provisions related to the following prohibited subjects of collective bargaining: 


(1) Employee pensions, including the impact or 
implementation of changes to employee pensions, including 
 the Employee Consideration Pension Transition Program as 
set forth in Section 30 of the Personnel Code. 


(2) Wages, including any form of compensation including salaries, overtime compensation, vacations, 
holidays, and any fringe benefits, including the impact or 
implementation of changes to the same; except nothing in 
this Section 7.6 will prohibit the employer from electing 
to bargain collectively over employer-provided health insurance. 


(3) Hours of work, including work schedules, shift 
schedules, overtime hours, compensatory time, and lunch periods, including the impact or implementation of changes 
to the same. 


(4) Matters of employee tenure, including the impact of 
employee tenure or time in service on the employer’s 
exercise of authority including, but not limited to, any 
consideration the employer must give to the tenure of 
employees adversely affected by the employer’s exercise of management’s right to conduct a layoff.

That was all part of Rauner’s plot to help local governments deal with a property tax freeze. Under Rauner’s logic, the locals could drastically cut labor costs and therefore keep local taxes low.

* This is pretty much all that’s left of Rauner’s plan in the Senate’s “grand bargain”

Amends the Property Tax Extension Limitation Law in the Property Tax Code. Provides that, for the 2017 and 2018 levy years, the term “taxing district” means all taxing districts in the State, including home rule units. Provides that, for the 2017 and 2018 levy years, the extension limitation for those taxing districts is 0% or the rate of increase approved by the voters.

Amends the School Code. Makes changes concerning contracts between a school board and a third party. Provides that local boards of education shall forward certain cost projections to the State Board of Education. Provides that, beginning July 1, 2022, the State Board shall review and analyze the cost projections and review for any cost savings and economic benefits. Requires the State Board to file a report by December 31, 2022.

Imposes a moratorium on third-party contracts for non-instructional services while the State Board is preparing the report. Imposes a moratorium on third-party contracts for non-instructional services while the State Board is preparing the report. Provides that a school district may offer a driver education course in a school by contracting with a commercial driver training school; sets forth requirements concerning the contract. Provides that a school district may offer a driver education course in a school by contracting with a commercial driver training school; sets forth requirements concerning the contract.

Provides that school districts need not comply with and may discharge any mandate or requirement placed on school districts by the Code or by administrative rules adopted by the State Board of Education that is unfunded; with exceptions. Sets forth requirements concerning discharging mandates. Makes changes concerning physical education.

* Regarding that unfunded mandate non-compliance ability

(b) Subsection (a) of this Section does not apply to any of the following:

    (1) Laws and rules pertaining to student health, life, or safety.
    (2) Federally required mandates, including without limitation compliance with the federal Every Student Succeeds Act.
    (3) Laws and rules pertaining to civil rights and protections.

(c) Before a school district may lawfully discharge an unfunded mandate under subsection (a) of this Section, it must hold a public hearing and referendum on the matter.

Emphasis added.

* And here’s the PE requirement

A school board may determine the schedule or frequency of physical education courses, provided that a pupil engages in a course of physical education for a minimum of 3 days per week.

  41 Comments      


Rauner won’t say where he stands on “repeal and replace”

Tuesday, Jan 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From Governing Magazine on Friday

In the early morning hours on Thursday, U.S. Senate Republicans jammed a provision through that will speed up the process of repealing the Affordable Care Act (ACA), President Obama’s signature health reform law.

Congressional Republicans voted to repeal Obamacare dozens of times throughout the last few years, but the threat of a presidential veto always stood in their way. With Donald Trump’s election giving Republicans full control of Congress and the White House, though, the debate has largely become not whether Obamacare will be repealed — but how quickly the law will be replaced and what will appear in its place.

Of the 31 states that adopted one of Obamacare’s biggest provisions, Medicaid expansion, 16 of them have Republican governors. If that provision isn’t part of the replacement plan, states would likely lose millions of dollars in federal funding for health care. Even if Medicaid expansion is carried over into the new plan, millions of low-income people could lose health insurance if there’s a gap between repealing and replacing the law.

That puts many Republican governors, some of whom have long criticized the ACA, in a tough spot and for many, up against their Republican counterparts in Congress. On Thursday, GOP governors will discuss Medicaid with members of the U.S. Senate Finance Committee.

They go on to list where various governors stand, but Illinois isn’t on the list. I asked the governor’s press office for a response the other day and haven’t heard back.

* That meeting between GOP governors and members of the Finance Committee is in two days, so Gov. Rauner was asked about what he wants for Illinois out of the ACA repeal/replace actions…

There are a lot of changes being proposed. I think it’s too early to say. We’re having conversations [with] the federal administration. There’s disagreement within Congress, there’s disagreement between the Trump administration and congressional leaders about what to do. This is going to take some sorting out.

Rauner was asked whether it wasn’t important for him and other governors “to say ‘This is what will hurt us, this is what will not,’ and speak out about it?”

* Rauner’s response…

Well, we’re having conversations. And I am working with other governors around the country. We’ll speak louder if we have a joint voice. One governor’s voice isn’t as much in a federal administration as many governors. So we’re talking with other governors and administrations, we’re talking with the federal government directly. These are conversations that would be inappropriate for me to, you know, talk too much about specific ideas through the press. That’s not the way to have a negotiation or discussion. They want to be able to talk with us in confidence. Because, frankly when there’s disagreements people are very sensitive about whose opinions are getting put out there, so we just gotta be thoughtful and we’ll pursue it. I’m just gonna be a strong advocate for the people of Illinois in these discussions.

Oh, so now he understands that it’s best not to negotiate through the media?

And now he understands that in times of disagreement people might be a bit sensitive about what is “put out there”?

And now he understands the benefits of being “thoughtful” about an approach to negotiations?

Ah, how things change when an unpredictable and vengeful president-elect has millions of Twitter followers and our governor only has 15.7 thousand.

* Raw audio…

* Related…

* 18M would lose insurance year after Obamacare repeal: study

  35 Comments      


Zombies!!!

Tuesday, Jan 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Illinois Policy Institute

Illinoisans are facing a fiscal emergency. Homeowners are saddled with the nation’s highest property taxes, job creators have to navigate an uncompetitive workers’ compensation system, not to mention the worst pension crisis in the nation, and billions in unpaid bills. But politicians are unwilling to confront those challenges, even as residents continue fleeing for other states as a response.

At least one Springfield lawmaker, though, wants Illinoisans to brace themselves for another threat: Zombies.

On Jan. 12, state Rep. Chris Welch, D-Westchester, filed House Resolution 0030, which would designate October 2017 as “Zombie Preparedness Month,” urging “Illinoisans to educate themselves about natural disasters and take steps to create a stockpile of food, water and other emergency supplies that can last up to 72 hours.”

The language in this bill demonstrates insensitivity and a lack of seriousness on the part of lawmakers.

And on and on like that they go, concern trolling over a harmless little resolution with bipartisan support.

* Actually, Welch’s idea might do some good. From the resolution

WHEREAS, Tornadoes, floods, and other natural disasters are real and all Illinois citizens should be aware of the potential danger; while prevention of natural disasters is not viable, citizens can be prepared with emergency supplies and plans; and

WHEREAS, If the citizens of Illinois are prepared for zombies, than they are prepared for any natural disaster; while a Zombie Apocalypse may never happen, the preparation for such an event is the same as for any natural disaster; and

WHEREAS, Disasters disrupt hundreds of thousands of lives every year and can have lasting effects, both to people and property; and

WHEREAS, Over 60% of Americans are not practicing or preparing for natural disasters, and only 39% have developed an emergency plan; and

WHEREAS, Practicing for preparedness makes perfect, and staying safe is important for the citizens of Illinois; and

WHEREAS, Citizens should have supplies on hand, which may include, water, food, medications, tools, electronics, sanitation and hygiene, clothing and bedding, important documents, and first aid…

…Adding… As noted in comments, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has a Zombie apocalypse preparedness page. So, this ain’t new.

* Rep. Welch defended himself on Twitter and a snit broke out

Oh, for crying out loud.

* And then it took a turn for the worse

Sheesh. Also, I know of no poll that shows Rauner at 15 percent disapproval, but I digress.

* Eventually, I intervened and so did GOP Rep. Grant Wehrli (a noted Twitter troll himself) and everybody stopped arguing and went on to enjoy their holiday weekends.

All that energy expended over a little resolution.

  34 Comments      


Treating the symptoms

Tuesday, Jan 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sun-Times

Chicago is bolstering its response to emergencies involving people suffering from mental illness to address glaring deficiencies laid bare by the Justice Department.

An eight-hour course developed in partnership with EMS System Hospitals will allow paramedics, 911 personnel, police officers and mental health providers to engage in live, “scenario-based” simulations at Fire Academy South, 1338 S. Clinton.

* OK, that’s a good idea. But no mention of this?

It’s been more than [five] years since Mayor Rahm Emanuel ignited protests around the city by closing six mental health clinics in low-income, high-crime neighborhoods.

But if he has any second thoughts about his cuts, he sure isn’t showing it.

On the contrary, if last week’s brouhaha over City Council hearings on the clinics is any indication, the mayor is still reluctant to even discuss the matter.

So I’ll be the one to remind you that in the fall of 2011 he proposed closing six of the city’s 12 mental health clinics because—well, he didn’t really say.

He didn’t hold any hearings before he proposed the closures. He didn’t initiate a study or put together a task force.

He certainly didn’t talk to any mental health patients who would be affected by the cuts.

  14 Comments      


Manar wants Rauner to “personally” negotiate AFSCME contract

Tuesday, Jan 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Jordan Abudayyeh

AFSCME going on strike would be unprecedented and Senator Andy Manar says the Governor should personally be involved in negotiations trying to make sure that doesn’t happen.

Manar says the union is willing to move on their proposals, but he hasn’t seen a willingness to compromise from the Governor.

During a press call Monday, Senator Manar says if there is a strike he will support bills that would protect union members.

“The Governor should personally involve himself in this contract negotiation at this point,” said Sen. Andy Manar, D-Bunker Hill. “He sold himself to the people of the state as a businessman that can make deals and bring stability to state government. There’s no better place to show that that’s the case than right now with this impasse with AFSCME. By the looks of it this isn’t going to end well and we’re either looking at a strike or a lockout in a very short period of time.”

Did Rauner really sell himself as a guy who could “make deals and bring stability to state government”? Did Sen. Manar forget about the time when candidate Rauner said

“I may have to take a strike and shut down the government for a few weeks,” he said, with Dan Proft looking on. Rauner said he might not be happy about it, but “I will do it proudly because it’s the right thing to do.”

So, how would Rauner negotiating this thing personally solve the problem?

* Finke

“AFSCME has taken a profound step toward the Rauner administration with their latest proposal, and I would call on the administration to take a profound step toward AFSCME so we can have a settlement,” Manar said in a conference call with reporters Monday.

He was referring to a letter AFSCME sent to the Rauner administration a week ago setting out a “framework” to resume talks on a new contract. That included agreeing to a four-year freeze in base salary increases, although the union wants to continue step increases for the roughly 40 percent of its members who still qualify for them. The union also said it’s willing to have members pay higher health insurance costs, but not the 100 percent increases the union says the administration is seeking.

Last week, AFSCME said it will ask its members to vote on authorizing a strike. The union said if members approve, the 200-member bargaining committee could call a strike at some point, but a strike was not assured.

“This situation is eroding, and without Gov. Rauner being personally involved and personally invested in negotiating a contract, I’m deeply concerned about where this is going,” Manar said. “Nothing good would come of locking out state employees, replacing state employees, threatening state employees with their jobs.”

Emphasis added because those step increases ain’t cheap. Was it a significant move by AFSCME? Heck, yes. Was it “profound”? Not quite.

But, hey, Manar has a lot of state workers in his district, so he ought to be speaking on their behalf.

* Rauner administration response…

The Rauner Administration’s track record of successfully negotiating contracts with 19 other unions speaks for itself. Our approach includes earning overtime after working 40 hours, implementing workplace safety task forces, and using volunteers at veterans’ homes and state parks. Instead of parroting AFSCME’s irresponsible strike talk, Sen. Manar should encourage the union to work with us to implement these items that are fair to both employees and taxpayers.

That 40-hour thing is just a killer. I get what’s going on here with the unpaid time for lunch, but they should find a way around that somehow.

  92 Comments      


And Petrella makes 8

Tuesday, Jan 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Petrella is the second Statehouse reporter poached by the Tribune for its editor ranks in the past couple of months and the 8th Statehouse reporter to leave their bureaus during that same time period

DAN PETRELLA, 32, the Statehouse bureau chief for Lee Enterprises newspapers, is leaving that post to work as an assistant editor for the business section of the Chicago Tribune. He starts there Jan. 30.

Petrella has been in his current job for a year, providing coverage for newspapers in the Quad Cities, Decatur, Carbondale, Bloomington, Charleston-Mattoon and Munster, Indiana, which is in the Chicagoland area.

He’s a native of the Chicago suburb of Lombard, and still has family there. He’s got undergraduate and graduate degrees from the University of Illinois in Urbana, including his journalism master’s. His wife, JULIA, is a doctoral student in library and information science there, and will periodically commute as she completes that work. […]

“Having grown up reading the Tribune and being inspired to go into journalism because of the Tribune, it was just impossible to pass up an opportunity to go and work there.”

  9 Comments      


Candidate preview at Rainbow PUSH

Tuesday, Jan 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gov. Rauner was at a Rainbow PUSH breakfast honoring Martin Luther King, Jr. yesterday along with five possible Democratic opponents. From Charles Thomas’ report..

“As I’ve always said I don’t ever close any doors,” [Sen. Kwame Raoul] said.

Raoul was palling around with possible Democratic primary opponent businessman Chris Kennedy. “I have friends before I ventured into politics and I consider Chris to be one of those friends,’ Raoul said.

“I’ve talked to an awful lot of people. I’m convinced that our state is on the wrong path,” Kennedy said Monday. […]

“It means that whoever is going to run against him better have the resources to run against what probably is going to be more like $100 million,” [JB] Pritzker said [about Rauner recently putting $50 million into his campaign fund]. “I’m going to do my best. I certainly do have money but more importantly I’m willing to step up because we’ve got to win.”

Kennedy — no pretender himself when it comes to wealth — said it’s about more than money.

“This most important thing that occurs in this election is to listen to people,” Kennedy said.

The other possible candidate was former Gov. Pat Quinn, who didn’t rule out a 2018 run.

* More from the event

KENNEDY: I mean I’m convinced at this point that the state of Illinois is on the wrong track.

Democrat JB Pritzker joined Rev Jesse Jackson and a handful of elected officials on stage to sing We Shall Overcome.

PRITZKER: Oh I have to say I’m exploring it, I’ve talked to an awful lot of people to get their input, this is a process.

As the breakfast ended, former Governor Pat Quinn was spotted shaking hands in the lobby.

* One more

Billionaire businessman JB Pritzker says he hates that money has become so important in politics. Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner has said he’d run for a second term. Last month, the wealthy Republican governor put $50 million of his own money into his campaign fund. And that’s left some Democrats wondering if they’re going to need a wealthy candidate to run against him - and JB Pritzker is one of the possible names on the list.

“I’m not a guy who thinks we should turn politics into a playpen for people who are wealthy, but I’m also somebody who believes we’ve got to win in 2018.”

* If Pritzker’s comments sound to you like he’s about to jump in, you’re not alone. His sister, outgoing Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker, had this to say to Lynn Sweet

GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner has fueled his political rise with his own tens of millions of dollars. He is up for re-election in 2018 and Pritzker’s younger brother, J.B. is considering a run.

Though the two have had their differences over the years, when it comes to running for governor, “J.B. and I have been very much aligned on this. I very much support him. I think he’ll make a terrific governor. So I am all in to help him.”

The two have “talked about it on many different levels…he’s a man who has committed himself to early childhood (education) and to helping build businesses, start ups and manufacturing businesses. I think he’ll do a great job. …I told him I’m all in to help him.”

J.B. is prepared to pour his own multiple millions into a governor run. Having his sister on board – with her extensive fundraising networks as well as her own deep pockets – is a considerable plus.

“All in” is a whole lot of money. Just sayin…

* But Rauner has some deep-pocketed supporters, too

Chicago billionaire philanthropist Ken Griffin has paid $85 million for an oceanfront estate in Palm Beach, Florida, that neighbors property he already owns there.

It’s the second most expensive single real estate transaction in the area, according to the Palm Beach Daily News. First was a 2008 deal by President-elect Donald Trump, who sold a mansion for $95 million.

Griffin, the founder of the Chicago-based hedge fund company Citadel and the market-maker Citadel Securities, plans to build a massive estate. His vacation home will be designed by architect Ugo Sap.

Griffin reportedly now owns more than 12 acres of contiguous land with about 871 feet of oceanfront. The tab for all that gorgeousness: $229.85 million.

Amazing.

* Back to the Democrats. Here’s Sneed

Here’s a question: Will Chris Kennedy, an heir to the Kennedy dynasty’s dynamism, have announced his candidacy for governor before he is honored at a Special Olympics Chicago reception at the Carnivale restaurant on Feb. 27?

Or at it?

Created originally at the Chicago Park District by a young [Illinois Supreme Court Justice] Anne Burke, it was Kennedy’s aunt, Eunice Shriver, who made the Special Olympics concept and ran it into an international institution.

Stay tuned.

  39 Comments      


On inauguration day, a study in contrasts

Tuesday, Jan 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

If I had to choose a word to describe the Democrats’ nominating speeches for House Speaker Michael Madigan’s re-election last week, it would be either “defensive” or perhaps “joyless.”

The speeches seemed directly aimed at Madigan’s toughest critics – and there are plenty of those out there. The nominators at times angrily justified their own votes for Madigan and their continued willingness to support him while under siege by a hostile kabillionaire governor and much of the state’s media. They literally cannot go anywhere without being asked about why they continue to back Madigan.

For the most part, these were speeches from an all-too-real bunker.

Rep. Dan Beiser (D-Alton) told a touching story about how Madigan dotes over his grandchild, but began his speech with an anecdote about how he figured the child would get him in trouble by playing with a toy car in Madigan’s office – a clear acknowledgment of his leader’s fearsome reputation. It was an attempt to humanize a man who has been turned into a cartoon caricature of an evil villain. But it was too little, too late.

Beiser, by the way, was a Tier One campaign target last year who was repeatedly forced to distance himself from Madigan. His nominating speech was the clearest indication yet that he won’t be running for re-election next year. Former Rep. John Bradley lost his House race last year partly because the Republicans aired an ad that used video from one of his own Madigan-nominating speeches. Beiser’s speech was likely not so much an act of courage in the face of overwhelming retribution, but a way to show his thanks to the top dog on his way out the door.

While House Democrats repeatedly lashed out at the opposition to Madigan, Senate Democrats were heaping praise on Senate President John Cullerton for being, in the words of Sen. Toi Hutchinson (D-Olympia Fields), “uniquely qualified at building bipartisan bridges because, above everything else, he has demonstrated a love for this state.”

Contrast that with Rep. Elgie Sims’ (D-Chicago) speech, which began with a story about how a friend warned him against seconding Madigan’s nomination because the Republicans would bash him with tons of negative ads.

The strong sense of political danger about the vote was a sentiment widely shared by Sims’ fellow Democratic House members. But in the end, the members did their grim best to power their way forward.

Madigan began his own speech by asking for bipartisanship, but then defiantly refused yet again to participate in any “race to the bottom” with Gov. Rauner and appeared to dismiss out of hand any attempt to reform workers’ compensation insurance, a key component of the compromise brewing in the Senate.

Madigan’s speech was nothing like Senate President Cullerton’s, who mildly complained about the fact that the Senate is often ignored by reporters because “if there’s no conflict there’s no coverage.”

Cullerton talked about the advances he and Senate Republican Leader Radogno have made together. The two were elected to their leadership roles as the divisive end of the Rod Blagojevich era was coming to a tragic end. “We’ve seen some pretty bad times and we’ve gotten through them by working together,” he said.

“How about we just try governing for a little bit?” Cullerton gently asked near the end of his speech after saying the non-stop campaign-style messaging needs to stop. “That’s what the people have sent us here to do.”

That same sentiment was expressed much more forcefully in the House, where Republican Leader Jim Durkin angrily demanded an end to the Democrats’ “gotcha” games of holding endless roll calls purely designed to be used in campaign ads.

Watching the two ceremonies was truly a study in contrasts. The Senate was brimming with hope that it can finally lead the way out of this horrific two-year impasse. The House, meanwhile, is still mired up to its collective neck in the stalemate with no clear way forward.

And then there was the lone “Present” vote by Rep. Scott Drury (D-Highwood), who issued a long and rambling press release afterward predicting that he will likely face “repercussions” for his (mostly meaningless) act, and claiming that “Illinois is in a free-fall into the abyss.”

Despite his usual melodramatics and penchant for self-aggrandizement, Drury’s statement was almost the perfect cap for a joyless and grim afternoon. It is clear, he wrote, that “a majority of the General Assembly is not ready for a new Speaker.”

That is very true. Last week, the House Democrats continued the age-old political practice of dancing with the one who brung them. But there were few smiles to be seen.

  53 Comments      


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Tuesday, Jan 17, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

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