Election officials say early voting is increasingly popular. Illinois has expanded its early voting period.
Daily pre-election early voting totals weren’t available for previous years.
Officials say during 2012’s general election, nearly 16 percent of registered voters voted early at polls, representing 22 percent of the nearly 5.3 million votes.
Newly filed campaign finance paperwork shows Republican U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk raised less than $300,000 during the first 19 days of October, leaving him with $576,279 for his re-election effort’s final push.
That contrasts with the Democratic challenger, two-term U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth of Hoffman Estates. Duckworth’s pre-election report for the same time period showed her raising $860,559, with $2.5 million left ahead of Tuesday’s election.
That comes after the two candidates released third-quarter fundraising numbers last month. Kirk reported raising nearly $1.2 million for his re-election bid from July through September, compared with $4.1 million for Duckworth during the same time period.
Kirk had more than $3.1 million in July but spent almost $3 million during the third quarter, leaving him with nearly $1.4 million to start October. Duckworth had more than three times that amount at $4.3 million.
Ouch.
There are rank and file Illinois state legislators and challengers who raised way more money than Kirk last month. Quite a lot of them, in fact.
* Scott Reeder: Kirk’s comment about Duckworth’s mother all about race: The parents in question weren’t of immediate European descent, leaving Trump, Kirk and others of their ilk free to attack their children’s patriotism. Don’t believe me? Well, how often have you heard anyone attack Trump for having a mother born in Scotland?
New Jersey became the state with the worst-funded public pension system in the U.S. in 2015, followed closely by Kentucky and Illinois.
The Garden State had $135.7 billion less than it needs to cover all the benefits that have been promised, a $22.6 billion increase over the prior year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Illinois’s unfunded pension liabilities rose to $119.1 billion from $111.5 billion.
The two were among states whose retirement systems slipped further behind as rock-bottom bond yields and lackluster stock-market gains caused investment returns to fall short of targets. The median state pension had 74.5 percent of assets needed to meet promised benefits, down from 75.6 percent the prior year. The decline followed two years of gains. The shortfall for states overall was $1.1 trillion in 2015.[…]
While New Jersey only has 37.5 cents available to pay each $1 of benefits, South Dakota, the state with the best-funded pension, had $1.04, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Kentucky, the state with the second-worst funded retirement system, had a ratio of assets to liabilities of 37.8 percent, followed by Illinois at 40.2 percent.
So, New Jersey and Illinois together make up about 23 percent of the combined unfunded liability of all states in the nation.
Lovely.
* Related…
* Illinois gets more awful news from its largest pension fund: On Oct. 28, TRS’ board of trustees voted to seek a state contribution in fiscal 2018 of $4.56 billion—up a whopping $561 million, or 14.5 percent, over this year’s $3.99 billion.
Madigan spokesman Steve Brown says the speaker “complies with all of the applicable law. If someone wants to change (the law), file a bill and we’ll have a debate.”
But shouldn’t the speaker disclose his taxes voluntarily if the governor is doing so?
No. “There’s a vast difference in the powers” of the offices of speaker and governor, Brown replied. And besides, “the governor has a practice” of releasing his taxes and ought to stick with it. Madigan has a different practice.
* The Question: Should Speaker Madigan release his income tax returns? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
* Possible gubernatorial candidate Chris Kennedy lambasted Gov. Rauner in Crain’s for staying mostly mum on Donald Trump…
In the face of this very partial accounting of Trump’s misdeeds, Rauner’s silence must be called what it is: complicity with Trump’s hate.
Does Rauner remain quiet because he’s not a woman, Latino, African American, Jewish, Muslim, LGTBQ, or a veteran? Does Rauner not understand he is the governor of a state whose citizens are numerously represented among those groups? Does he not appreciate Illinois’ diversity is its strength and a reason businesses locate here? Does he not recognize his duty as his party’s leader to take a stand on behalf of Republicans (and everyone in our state) against Trump’s ugly words? Does he agree with what Trump says?
We are left to wonder. Rauner’s haughty dismissals of questions about his Trump support, as if Illinoisans don’t deserve to know why, is especially unfortunate considering how many Republican officials have spoken out against their nominee.
Whether it’s because he is afraid of the electorate, deliberately malicious, or incompetent, Rauner’s defective moral compass is an embarrassment to the Land of Lincoln, named for our greatest president who gave his life to defend the democratic values Trump would destroy. Illinoisans will not forget Rauner chose to remain mute in the face of Trump’s demagoguery, unwilling to be counted when it mattered by saying what all decent people know is true: Donald Trump is unfit for the presidency and a danger to our republic.
I dunno. People have pretty short memories. We’ll see.
The truth is that the governor is focused on one thing: fixing Illinois. Taking his milquetoast statement supporting the future Republican presidential nominee as proof of Rauner’s true intentions is an insult to the intelligence of the electorate. People subjected to those misguided and inane ads will remember that—both on November 8th and into the future.
I think the “people” Gidwitz is talking about mostly reside in the governor’s orbit. But, maybe not.
* Which threat do you think is more credible? Or is neither threat credible?
Seth Lewis, a Republican who has benefited from Rauner’s generosity, is running for the state Senate in Chicago’s western suburbs, including Villa Park and Bartlett. He has raised $1.7 million in the last three months. […]
Lewis, who is challenging Democratic incumbent Tom Cullerton, D-Villa Park, is spending much of this money on sending mailers to voters and airing expensive TV ads.
“Has (the money) had an impact? Absolutely,” Lewis said. “But in my particular case, I think it’s just been able to keep us even with our opponent.”
Lewis claims all that money from Rauner is helping Republicans stay even with the Democrats’ fundraising. Over the last three months, Cullerton raised about $1.5 million from labor unions, attorneys — traditional Democratic funders — along with Democratic leaders.
Cullerton said it’s the Democrats who are trying to keep up with the Republicans. He won the Senate seat four years ago with a fraction of the cash he’s spent this year.
“With the amount of money the governor has put in, I don’t know if anybody can keep up with the kind of money that he’s got and the kind of money he’s moving around the state,” Cullerton said.
* And speaking of money, the Tribune has a much better piece today on spending than you’ll normally find in a mainstream media outlet. Click here to read it. And click here for some very handy charts that show money raised by each legislative candidate.
Unions and trial lawyers largely are funding Madigan’s troops, while Rauner and wealthy allies are bankrolling the Republican efforts. One longtime Illinois campaign finance expert questions whether the influx of all that campaign cash is good for either side or for the state’s politics.
“If having someone who is, or appears to be, a wholly owned subsidiary of the speaker is bad for representative democracy and local control, then replacing them with someone who is, or appears to be, a wholly owned subsidiary of the governor — I don’t think that gets us any closer to democracy and local control,” said Kent Redfield, emeritus professor of political science at the University of Illinois at Springfield.
“If we were keeping score and asking if it is now a more balanced fight, that begs the real question of whether this is how we really ought to be electing people and making decisions and representing local legislative districts and communities. That’s the big picture part of it. It’s not healthy for the political system on either side,” he added.
Yeah, well, this is nothing compared to what will likely happen in 2018.
Total spending has topped $2 million in 16 state legislative races this year, including a dozen that have gone above $3 million and six that have surpassed $4 million through Oct. 31, the Chicago Tribune reports.
Two years ago, just one Illinois Senate race topped $4 million while one House contest exceeded $2 million, a sign of how the current battle has intensified between Rauner and Democrats, especially House Speaker Michael Madigan.
* From an October 28th e-mail from Veritone, a company I’d never heard of until last week…
Hi Rich,
I saw your Madigan post and wanted to provide you some insight that you may find helpful.
We track local news talk radio within the state of Illinois. Within the past week “Madigan” was mentioned over 180 times. Here is a brief collection of advertisements from radio in the state of Illinois to include an interview with Jason Gonzales. Can I provide you any additional information that may be helpful for you?
Best regards,
Elisa Henry
The link she provided is here. It even has that new Jim Durkin radio ad paid for by Gov. Rauner’s Turnaround Illinois PAC - the independent expenditure which broke the contribution caps and allowed Durkin to collect unlimited contributions from Rauner and Ken Griffin.
Not every reference will be about Speaker Madigan, but it’s close enough.
* Here’s what Ms. Henry says the data covers…
Local news talk radio information that consists of
What hosts are saying
Interviews
Constituent call-in conversations
Advertisements
Transcription Engines convert spoken audio recordings into readable text. They are built and trained to recognize different languages, dialects, and topics, even in the presence of background music or noise. Veritone utilizes a continuous machine-learning combination of several transcription engines to provide the best possible transcription of audio recordings. For those occasions where 100% accuracy is required, the request can be routed to human transcription professionals as well.
* Anyway, I asked Elisa how far back she could search for “Madigan” in Illinois and she sent me this report…
2015
July - 108
August - 31
September - 19
October - 160
November - 75
December - 149
2016
January - 114
Feb. - 96
March - 105
April - 24
May - 159
June 1 -30 - 225
July - 371
August - 121
September - 34
October - 498
* If you click here you’ll see the latest TV ads for Dan Proft’s Liberty Principles PAC. There’s quite a lot of them. And almost all the recent ones (at least 30 of them) feature a woman speaking to the camera identified as “Kathleen, single mom.” The woman is actually the Illinois Opportunity Project’s Director of Communication Kathleen Murphy. That group was co-founded by Proft.
State and federal authorities are trying to find out why 1,500 absentee ballot applications were left in a Rock Island post office box for three weeks. Michelle O’Neill reports.
Rock Island County Clerk, Karen Kinney, says one of the first tips about a potential problem with absentee ballot applications came from her own mother. Voters also started to call her office asking, “Where’s my ballot?” Kinney called the sheriff, state’s attorney, and the Illinois Attorney General for help. She learned that a Dekalb woman from the Illinois Opportunity Project rented the Post Office box. The project is a Chicago-based non-profit, co-founded by Dan Proft who’s a radio host and former Republican candidate for governor. [Emphasis added]
Co-founder Pat Hughes said his organization has done nothing wrong.
“We’re doing a vote-by-mail program,” Mr. Hughes said. “We’ve delivered thousands of applications in Rock Island County and throughout the state.”
While Ms. Kinney said the 1,500 absentee applications were piled up at the Rock Island Post Office on 11th Street before being delivered last Thursday and Friday by a man, Mr. Hughes refutes there was any voter suppression on behalf of his organization.
“They’re (applications) being picked up and delivered every single day,” Mr. Hughes said. “Any comments on voter suppression are false. If those statements are coming from the Rock Island County clerk or any other Democratic elected official, they are politically motivated.”
Mr. Hughes said the Illinois Attorney General’s Office has made many inquiries and demands over the last week of his organization related to Rock Island County and other counties, but he said it has done nothing wrong.
Hughes said the Illinois Opportunity Project mailed applications to voters on Oct. 11, and picked up the returned applications from the Rock Island Post Office on Oct. 26, after receiving inquiries from law enforcement. Hughes says the group didn’t break any laws by not grabbing the applications sooner. He also says that because the group distributed applications on the 11th and collected them on the 26th, it disproves the Democratic clerk’s claim that the applications languished for three weeks.
Mark Curley, postmaster for the Rock Island Post Office, corroborated Hughes’ timeline.
“There was no three weeks,” Curley said. “They didn’t languish.”
* Ron Gidwitz, chairman of Trump-Pence Victory Illinois, writes in Crain’s…
Two things are guaranteed out of every political campaign season:
• We all get tired of the rhetoric and non-stop campaign ads; and . . .
• Outlandish accusations will describe mole hills as mountains.
That second point may best be illustrated by Illinois Democrats’ piercing shrieks about Governor Bruce Rauner’s support for Donald Trump. Unless you’re wise enough to take an extended vacation off the planet during election season, you’ve undoubtedly seen the breathless accusations splashed across the airwaves that Governor Rauner deeply and profoundly supports Donald Trump—punctuated with one single damning phrase: “I will support the Republican Party’s nominee.”
Be still my heart! A half-hearted phrase muttered demurely and without mentioning He Whose Name Will Not Be Spoken suddenly has become video proof that Rauner will go to the ends of the Earth to get Trump elected so he can steal from the poor and give to the wealthy. Clearly, Rauner’s terse phraseology can be interpreted as a sign of complicity and access to the pots of gold the governor has in his possession!
So, lemme get this straight. The Illinois chairman of Donald Trump’s campaign has now stridently come to the defense of his party’s governor for not explicitly by name endorsing… Donald Trump.
The Illinois Republican Party on Tuesday called on Chicago City Clerk and Illinois State Comptroller candidate Susana Mendoza to explain why she was sued by national electronics retailer Best Buy for unpaid personal bills after months of non-payment.
Cook County Sheriff’s Deputies served Mendoza with a summons to appear before a Cook County Judge to answer allegations that she opened a Best Buy credit account and ran up charges, but then failed to pay her bill. Mendoza later reached a settlement agreement with the retailer.
“It is concerning that anyone running for elected office would have to be sued to pay their bills,” said Nick Klitzing, Illinois Republican Party Executive Director. “But when that candidate is asking to serve as the state’s Chief Fiscal Officer, such an incident is disqualifying. If she can’t take care of her own finances, how can she be trusted to manage the state’s checkbook?”
Mendoza was personally served with papers requiring her to appear in Cook County Circuit Court on the morning of December 28, 2000. In the lawsuit, Best Buy maintained that Mendoza failed to make monthly payments as required in the credit agreement she signed. The retailer asked that Mendoza be required to pay a debt of $1,561.32.
“Susana Mendoza disqualified herself for this office by spending 10 years in Springfield voting at the behest of Mike Madigan for the very unbalanced budgets, tax increases and pension holidays that have landed our state in fiscal crisis, but this revelation is even more alarming,” Klitzing said. “Human services, small businesses, hospitals, schools and others depend on the Comptroller to swiftly process state payments – they simply can’t afford to take chances on someone that doesn’t even pay her own bills.”
Mendoza was 27 at the time of the purchase, and was elected to the Illinois General Assembly as a state representative in November 2000, at the age of 28. […]
Mendoza’s campaign dismissed the allegations, saying Mendoza bought a Best Buy laptop with an agreement that she’d have a year to make a payment, and no interest charges. After a year passed, she didn’t receive a bill. She was later sent a letter from a collection agency demanding the amount owed, plus a fee from the agency. Mendoza took Best Buy to court to prove that she did not receive a bill, and the case was settled with Mendoza paying what she owed for the laptop, her campaign said.
In a statement, Mendoza’s campaign manager Lauren Peters called the information release from the GOP a “desperate attempt to distract voters” from issues Munger wants to “run away from,” including her role in late payments for court-ordered disability payments during the budget impasse.
“The state of Illinois has never been worse off than it has been under the Rauner/Munger team,” Peters said. “And they will say or do anything to distract the voters of Illinois from the truth, including a decades old dispute, in order to avoid explaining how they managed to push the state further into debt while slashing social service.”
Gov. Bruce Rauner, who once described himself as part of the “point-zero-one percent” of wealthy Americans, is holding back on releasing his personal income taxes this year — a departure from past practice for the wealthy Republican. The Rauner Family Foundation also has not filed its papers this year.
Since Oct. 20, Rauner’s office did not respond to questions about why the governor hadn’t released his 2015 taxes and whether he planned to do so. Informed today that POLITICO was poised to publish a story, the governor’s office released this statement.
“Governor Rauner will release his tax returns, as he has done in the past, when additional filings are completed, including the filings for the Rauner Family Foundation,” said the text-message statement from spokeswoman Catherine Kelly. […]
“We’ve not seen those returns,” Illinois Democratic Party spokesman Steve Brown told POLITICO Illinois. “It certainly is another example of making him look more Trump-like. A very curious development.” […]
“Is it about not wanting to be transparent or not wanting to draw contrasts between yourself and the presidential nominee?” said Kent Redfield, professor emeritus at University of Illinois at Springfield. “Those are the two most reasonable explanations: ‘I don’t have to do it’ and ‘it’s not going to hurt me.’ Or we’re kind of slow-walking it because we don’t want to draw contracts between his behavior and Trump’s.”
He released his returns last year in mid-October. The grapevine has it that the new returns will show a large increase in income.
WTAX has asked the offices of the Speaker of the House and President of the Senate what plans there are to release those legislative leaders’ 2015 returns.
An e-mail from Steve Brown, spokesman for House Speaker Mike Madigan (D-Chicago), says, As soon as law changes or Speaker makes same same decisions as governor’s.
Why he decided to jump into the fray considering his boss has never released his own tax returns is puzzling, to say the least.
Duckworth has a commanding edge over Kirk within the City of Chicago (62 percent to 17 percent), while the two draw even in the Chicago suburbs 38 percent each, and Kirk holds a slim lead in the rest of the state 38 percent to 36 percent.
Turning to the question of favorability ratings for the U.S. Senate, Tammy Duckworth enjoys a +13 net favorability, while Senator Kirk has a +1 favorability.
Other noteworthy results from the poll
54 percent of likely voters in Illinois approve of President Barack Obama’s job performance, while 41 percent disapprove.
53 percent of Illinois likely voters see the country headed in the wrong direction, while 76 percent say the state of Illinois is headed in the wrong direction. Only 14 percent of those polled indicated that the state was headed on the right track.
Kirk remains a relatively unknown quantity even after almost 6 years in the Senate. According to the toplines, Kirk’s total favorables (32 percent) and his total unfavorables (28 percent) add up to just 60 percent who can rate him. That total is 70 percent for Duckworth (41-29).
The Loras College Poll surveyed 600 likely voters in Illinois. The survey was conducted Oct. 26-27. Margin of error for full sample is +/- 4 percent. Results calculated at a 95 percent confidence interval.
45 percent of the respondents were contacted via their mobile phones.
Tax revenue has recovered slowly and unevenly after falling in every state during the Great Recession. By the first quarter of 2016, tax collections had bounced back in 31 states after accounting for inflation. But amid inconsistent growth, receipts had slumped in 17 states at the start of the year
* Sen. Bertino-Tarrant wasn’t expecting to have such a spirited reelection bid, but she’s most definitely got a barn-burner on her hands. So, this press release will help, but there are two odd things about it…
Barack Obama today announced his endorsement of Jennifer Bertino-Tarrant’s campaign for State Senate, 49th District.
“I am very honored to receive the endorsement of Obama,” said Bertino-Tarrant, a first-term legislator from Shorewood. “I am proud to have the support of our president who is working tirelessly to invest more in our schools, create better paying-jobs, and reform the status quo.”
Bertino-Tarrant is now the first candidate for state Senate to receive the Obama’s endorsement in Illinois. Her campaign is now endorsed by organizations that represent teachers, police-officers, fire-fighters, small business owners, retirees, responsible gun-owners and working families.
“What drives me every day is the desire to provide a better future for our District,” said Bertino-Tarrant. “As a fourth-generation Will County resident and life-long educator, I am running to give the 49th District a voice they can count on to champion common sense legislation and promote bipartisan reform in Springfield.”
Until this year, Obama has not endorsed in state legislature races. Prior to serving in the White House and U.S. Senate, Obama served in the Illinois Senate representing Chicago’s Hyde-Park neighborhood.
1) No actual statement from the President? What’s up with that?
2) I was also told there will be no accompanying TV ad, which is odd, right?
* Meanwhile, speaking of national politics, this is from a reader…
Hi Rich,
Thought I would pass this along to you. I took this outside an early voting site in Park Ridge this morning.
* The pic…
Yeah, somehow I don’t think Michael paid for that truck.
…Adding… From a GOP friend…
That McAuliffe ad truck is owned by a hardcore GOP guy named Brian Younker. Maybe friendly fire?
Our analysis divides all elementary schools in the state into 10 tiers based on the percentage of low-income students a school serves. The zero to 9.9 percent tier includes schools serving the fewest low-income students, while those in the 90 percent to 100 percent range covers schools with the highest percentage of low-income students.
We then calculate the average percent met/exceeds for each tier. As in past years, our analysis shows how deeply stratified Illinois schools are by income, with no income tier performing better than any other tier with fewer low-income students.
The message parents should take from Monday’s newly released state report card data is that despite Illinois’ financial difficulties, school performance is steady — for the most part, according to state officials.
John Barker, the state’s new chief of performance, pointed out that overall graduation rates, attendance rates and ACT scores are either the same or up a little compared with last year.
Two areas of concern: Chronic truancy rates, which look at students who missed 5 percent or more days without a valid excuse, increased from 8.7 percent to 9.8 percent. Also, the number of students in preschool went down by more than 12,000 children.
Preschool education is this governor’s specialty. He knows a lot about it, including the theories about how and why it works. So, it’s weird that the number of preschool kids dropped.
* More from the ISBE…
Students enrolled in Pre-K-12 education – more than two million students (2,041,779) at the beginning of 2015-16, 12,777 fewer than the previous year; percentage of Hispanic students increased slightly (25.1% to 25.5%), while percentage declined slightly for White (49.3% to 48.8%) and African-American (17.5% to 17.3%) students
*** UPDATE *** It looks like WBEZ and I both misread the ISBE numbers. Those are for all students, not just Pre-K.
Chicago’s only Illinois House Republican is taking advantage of a historic World Series run — printing out a “W” poster in campaign mail ads that when placed on a window show the grinning faces of Michael McAuliffe and his family decked out in Cubs gear.
The Cubs last year filed applications with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office to expand its trademark of the “W” sign — which flies above Wrigley Field after victories and is a staple at Cubs fans’ homes.
McAuliffe’s campaign said the political mailer isn’t selling a product, and isn’t causing confusion in the marketplace, which would mean a trademark infringement. […]
Also of note, a misspelling of legendary broadcaster Harry Caray’s name: “History is in the making, and so for Ron Santo, Ernie Banks, Jack Brickhouse, Harry Carey, and all the other Cub players and announcers who never got to drink from the sweet cup of victory . . . let’s go Cubs!”
* Meanwhile, from a press release…
The Village of Rosemont today charged the political campaign of Merry Marwig with releasing deliberately false and misleading information that infringes on the village’s trademarked “Rose” and intentionally and deceptively implies that a political advertisement is from Mayor Brad Stephens. In a letter to Marwig, Rosemont attorneys called for her campaign to cease and desist the use of the village’s iconic trademarked “Rose” and demanded that Marwig renounce a political mailer sent to village residents which falsely and deceptively implies that Mayor Brad Stephens is endorsing Marwig for political office.
Mayor Stephens said Marwig’s campaign had devolved from political chicanery to outright illegality by using Rosemont’s trademark on a political letter that bears Rosemont’s seal and then signing it with the initial “B’, deceptively implying that Mayor Stephens had authored it. In the handwritten note, Marwig is endorsed for state representative. While trademarks are often borrowed for clever non-harmful reasons, Marwig’s campaign has engaged in outright deception.
“This is political dirty trickery at its worst and I am sickened that Merry Marwig, a candidate for state representative would condone it,” Mayor Stephens said. “We are today demanding that Marwig repudiate this false and deceptive ad and that she identify all persons involved in its production or dissemination so appropriate legal action can be taken.”
Rosemont said it would take whatever actions were lawful and appropriate to protect its rights including filing a complaint with the Illinois State Board of Elections. The Village also indicated it would ask the U.S. Attorney and the U.S. Postal Inspection Service to investigate the matter for possible mail fraud and other illegalities.
I doubt they have a federal case, but messing with Rosemont is never advisable.
*** UPDATE *** From Merry Marwig…
“I have spoken with and received great support from Rosemont residents, but I don’t know who sent this letter.
“Earlier this year, Michael McAuliffe admitted to calling me a ‘girl’ when talking about me to voters. He looks down on women, has a shameful record on women’s issues and has now convinced Mayor Bradley Stephens to join him in his crusade to keep women from holding elected office.
“Voters are outraged. They’re outraged by Michael McAuliffe’s shameful record on women’s issues, and they’re outraged that Mayor Stephens is in line to receive a $260,000 taxpayer-funded salary when most other mayors in the suburbs receive a fraction of that obscene amount, while his family members are appointed to six-figure patronage jobs.”
The National Republican Congressional Committee is on the airwaves today with a new ad outlining the important differences between predictable partisan Brad Schneider and Bob Dold, one of the most independent members of Congress. Whether it is his support for the dangerous deal with Iran or billions in higher taxes, Brad Schneider has proven he can’t be trusted to do what is right for Illinois. Luckily, Bob Dold is one of the most bipartisan members of Congress, opposes the Iran Deal, and has consistently looked out for hardworking taxpayers.
Two candidates. Important differences. Brad Schneider supports the dangerous deal with Iran. Bob Dold opposes it.
Dold fights for Illinois taxpayers. Schneider has supported billions in higher taxes.
Dold is an independent leader – one of the most bipartisan members of Congress. Schneider voted the party line nearly 90%.
Bob Dold – the proven independent choice for Illinois.
* Press release…
Tammy Duckworth’s campaign for U.S. Senate today released its closing argument ad, entitled “Simple.” The 30-second, direct-to-camera positive spot, which will run in every Illinois market, highlights the core of Duckworth’s mission as a public servant: to help Illinois working families achieve economic security and opportunity. Duckworth concludes the ad by asking Illinoisans for their vote.
Over the last week, Duckworth has picked up key endorsements from newspapers around the state, including the State Journal-Register, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Quad-City Times, the Southern Illinoisan, the Chicago Defender, and the Daily Illini, adding to endorsements from the Chicago Sun-Times, Chicago Tribune, and Rockford Register-Star. These endorsements will be featured in regional variations of this ad.
“This ad is the essence of why Tammy is running for Senate and the connection she has made with Illinois voters — and speaks for itself,” Tammy for Illinois campaign manager Kaitlin Fahey said. “We’re thrilled that our campaign has the resources to run this spot statewide, and we’re gratified to have secured so many key endorsements just as Illinoisans are starting to go to the polls. With one week to go, our grassroots campaign will be working around the clock to to fight for every vote across every part of this state.”
Tammy Duckworth: I know what it’s like to fight for your life behind enemy lines and I know what it’s like to not be left behind. If you elect me to the Senate I’ll be guided by the simple notion that if you don’t give up on yourself, America won’t give up on you. I will fight for every kid trying to pay for college, for every small business trying to grow, and for every family working hard just trying to catch a break. I’m Tammy Duckworth, I approve this message and I’m asking for your vote. Thank You.
* And, finally…
A new video, available at fairgame.fairelectionsil.org, tells the story of a game that feels all too familiar: It’s election season in Illinois, once again, and Governor Bruce Rauner and his billionaire cronies play a game of basketball against Democracy (youth activist Asean Johnson). As the announcer highlights how the Billionaires United have used their money to block popular reform efforts, it seems that our hero, Democracy, can’t buy a shot. By the end of the game, the Billionaires won’t even let Democracy touch the ball. It is clear that the Billionaires are playing by a different set of rules.
That’s the message in the first salvo of a social media campaign that was launched today by the Fair Elections Illinois coalition in response to the rising influence of money in Chicago politics and Illinois State House and Senate campaigns. As the reform groups’ website notes, this is a game that is being played by elected officials on both sides of the aisle, with politicians like Chicago Mayor Rahm Emmanuel and Governor Rauner reaping huge benefits.
The Fair Elections Illinois video helps to educate the public on exactly how their elected officials and big donors use loopholes in the campaign finance system to dramatically alter current policies and to push alternative candidates out of contention. “We are living in unprecedented times,” said Amanda Weaver, Executive Director of Reclaim Chicago. “Billionaires and well-funded special interest groups have never been as powerful as they are today, and we believe that the public deserves to know how a handful of individual donors are reshaping the political landscape in this state.”
This ad campaign comes at a time when huge amounts of money are being moved around by big donors. In just the last couple of weeks, Governor Rauner and his friend, hedge fund CEO Ken Griffin, transferred $5 million to Illinois House Republican Leader Jim Durkin’s campaign. Then Durkin turned around and transferred over $3 million to the House Republican Organization.
Sadly, the story is no different here in Chicago. In February 2015, 79% of Chicago voters supported a ballot question to limit the influence of special interest money by instituting a public campaign financing system.
New York, though, is still the nation’s food-truck and food-cart capital, with 3,100 legally licensed vendors selling everything from classic hot dogs to small-batch popcorn on almost every corner of the city’s densest areas. (Many more vendors operate illegally.)
And while many cities confine their food trucks and carts to certain main thoroughfares and parks at certain times, New York, with a few exceptions, lets them operate wherever their proprietors like.
Now, New York City Council wants to double the number of food-truck and -cart permits it awards. The permits are good for both carts, which operate on sidewalks and trucks, which operate on streets, whichever the vendor prefers.
And I don’t mean to just pick on Chicago. We could use lots more food trucks and carts everywhere here. It allows people to more easily break into the food business and allows existing restaurants to cheaply test new products.
By all means, responsibly and reasonably regulate their safety and quality, but stop focusing so darned much on quantity.
* Last week, 1,500 absentee ballot requests were found in a Rock Island post office box and they had apparently been sitting there for weeks. Local officials initially thought the PO box was owned by the Democrats, but now Rock Island County Clerk Karen Kinney says it’s owned by the Illinois Opportunity Project, co-founded by Dan Proft and Pat Hughes…
Ms. Kinney said that, after investigators looked into the postal box, a man brought the ballot applications to her office Thursday and Friday but gave few details on why submitting the applications took weeks. All those applications, she said, will be mailed ballots.
Ms. Kinney has asked Rock Island County State’s Attorney John McGehee, Sheriff Gerry Bustos and the Illinois Attorney General’s office to look into the matter. […]
Pat Hughes, co-founder of the Illinois Opportunity Project, confirmed his group rents a Rock Island postal box for absentee ballot applications. But he said he was unsure if it was the same box, and he will determine if it was. […]
“In Rock Island County, we sent out thousands of applications, and received a little over 1,500 applications in that P.O. box,” he said. “Every single one has been delivered to the clerk.”
With less than a week until Election Day and nearly four in 10 voters in states with no voter-ID requirements falsely believing they must present identification in order to vote, the personal-finance website WalletHub conducted an in-depth analysis of 2016’s Most & Least Politically Engaged States.
In order to determine where Americans are most involved in politics, WalletHub’s analysts compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across seven key indicators of political engagement. They range from “percentage of registered voters in the 2012 presidential election” to “total political contributions per adult population.”
Political Engagement in Illinois (1=Most; 25=Avg.)
28th – % of Registered Voters in 2012 Presidential Election
34th – % of Electorate Who Voted in 2014 Midterm Elections
34th – % of Electorate Who Voted in 2012 Presidential Election
23rd – Change in % of Electorate Who Actually Voted in 2012 Elections vs. 2008 Elections
11th – Total Political Contributions per Adult Population
9th – Civic Education Engagement
1st – Voter Accessibility Policies
Please let me know if you have any questions or if you would like to schedule a phone, Skype or in-studio interview with one of our experts. Full data sets for specific states and the District are also available upon request.
Methodology is here. According to Popa, voter accessibility is defined by laws governing things like early voting, no-excuse absentee voting, online voter registration and same-day registration.
* We looked at one of Sen. Daniel Biss’ new anti-Rauner super PAC ads yesterday. Here’s the other ad, which, unlike yesterday’s spot, doesn’t mention Donald Trump. Because of that, I assumed it was only meant for Downstate voters, but a pal told me he saw it on Chicago TV this morning…
Monday, Oct 31, 2016 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
A diabolical ploy. Outlandish drivel that’s aimed at taking care of the insiders. A waiter asking how your salmon tastes while the Titanic sinks.
These outraged cries of a few opinion writers aren’t about politicians, but an important ballot question: Should lawmakers be required to spend money where they say they’re going to? Our group, Citizens to Protect Transportation Funding, believes it’s important enough to ask voters to change the Constitution after seeing Springfield use road funds to prop up the state budget year after year, totaling more than $6.8 billion.
Today, we’re seeing the costs of those diversions:
The amendment language is complex, but its impact is simple: when you pay gas taxes and vehicles registrations, your money will go to their intended transportation needs.
Isn’t changing the Constitution too extreme? Not when the budget doomsday is already here. The Road Fund was tapped for half a BILLION DOLLARS just last year, ahead of a full year without a budget at all. Without this Amendment, why would we think it won’t happen again?
Vote Yes for the Safe Roads Amendment. It’s good for our economy, for our safety, and for some political sanity for a change at the state Capitol. Learn more at http://www.saferoadsamendment.com/
Illinois Republican U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk, already facing an uphill battle for re-election, is entering the crucial final week before Election Day weakened by comments about his opponent that critics attacked as racist and “beyond reprehensible.”
Two organizations whose endorsements Kirk touted as indicators of his independence withdrew their backing over the weekend, issuing blistering rebukes. Both said they’re now supporting Democratic U.S. Rep. Tammy Duckworth.
Democrats are relying on winning Illinois as they look to regain control of the U.S. Senate. The party must pick up four or five seats to do so, depending on whether they retain control of the White House.
Kirk spent the weekend away from the public eye - a highly unusual move for any candidate in the waning days of a campaign, but one that allowed him to avoid rehashing the incident in the media. Duckworth had a full campaign schedule, including get-out-the-vote events with civil rights icon and U.S. Rep. John Lewis.
* Actually, Kirk was at the Coleman-Oliver Foundation’s Black Coffee Agenda on the city’s South Side on Saturday morning. According to Kirk’s campaign, he then held a “town hall” meeting at Silk N Classy Barbershop in Dolton later in the day, and used the opportunity to get a haircut.
* How do I know this? Simple. First, I looked at Kirk’s Twitter account and then asked his campaign for more details. The Sun-Times also previewed the Sinai event. According to the Kirk campaign, the AP never bothered to call and check.
Look, it’s not like the incumbent had an action-packed weekend, but he did do some things. We don’t need to make this worse than it already is.
This past weekend saw the most fatal shootings all year in Chicago, but CPD Supt. Eddie Johnson said deploying extra officers to control crowds around Wrigley Field during the World Series did not mean other neighborhoods were neglected.
Between Friday evening and Monday morning — as the Cubs were playing three straight games at Wrigley Field — 17 people were shot and killed in Chicago, nearly all on the South and West sides. […]
The extra officers at Wrigley didn’t impact police staffing in the rest of the city, Johnson said Monday morning after a department graduation ceremony at Navy Pier.
Those neighborhoods hit by the spike in fatal shootings “didn’t get shortchanged at all this weekend,” he said.
For five years, Mayor Rahm Emanuel and other city officials hewed to the same script, maintaining to the public that Chicago has enough cops.
And the mayor and police brass proclaimed that they were working with the community to fight problems that lead to crime.
But out of the spotlight, the Emanuel administration told federal officials that the Chicago Police Department needed hundreds of additional officers and that community-based policing has been withering in Chicago for years — and that’s been a factor in the rise in violent crime battering the city.
In applications for grants from the Justice Department the past two years, city officials portrayed the Chicago Police Department as dangerously understaffed — even as Emanuel and police brass publicly dismissed calls to hire more cops until just a few weeks ago.
* David Giuliani is doing his best to keep up with the constant falsehoods landing in 76th House District mailboxes…
In the GOP’s mind, Rep. Andy Skoog should join his fellow Democrat, Hillary Clinton, behind bars.
The party’s latest mailer depicts a smiling Skoog in a police lineup in white shirt and loosened tie. The beefy arms of fellow “bad guys” appear on either side of Skoog, with one guy’s arm heavily tattooed.
Skoog is holding a sign that reads, “$6,000/year property tax scam.” The flier implores voters to retire “crooked politician” Skoog on Election Day, calling him a tax dodger.
Over the top? Of course, it is.
Just like plenty of other political fliers in mailboxes these days.
* And everything is portrayed as the end of the world as we know it…
This is Dems' latest over-the-top anti-Long mailer. When sex offenders are released, they're allowed to change from their orange uniforms. pic.twitter.com/oBDK2E8gaS
* Giuliani should keep up the good work. Few reporters ever bother confronting the blatant lies that are constantly churned out in legislative races because they either fall below the local media’s radar or they’re just so many of them that nobody wants to bother with the Herculean task of fact checking the avalanche.
In the end, however, it’s all just too much. Both sides have created alternate reality universes. Almost nothing they say has more than a tiny grain of truth, but their messaging has a much longer and deeper reach than any newspaper or Twitter account. Hence, the title of this post.
The only way these sorts of attacks will end is if they stop working. But since both sides do it, how could we ever tell?
If this amendment passes, the road funds will go into a “lockbox” and will be untouchable, even in a dire emergency.
It’s like taking a family’s household budget and saying that an important priority — say, saving for your kids’ college funds — would be locked up. Sounds good, until a financial crisis happens and you have no money to put food on the table, right?
Other states that have passed similar measures have provisions to declare a fiscal emergency and access those funds. Illinois’ measure doesn’t. That’s why voters should see big red flags.
Past history shows that once Illinois’ constitution is amended, it’s a highly difficult process to get it changed back. Exhibit A, the state’s efforts to find a way to deal with its skyrocketing pension obligations.
Transportation is an important investment for the state to make. But so is education, both K-12 and higher education. So are social services. So are public safety issues. Will they get their own dedicated funds?
If it wasn’t for all the Republican votes on this thing and the governor’s total silence, I’d be easily convinced this was a clever ploy by Speaker Madigan to lock up state money so that Gov. Rauner can’t use it to fund another patchwork, stopgap budget.
But, the Republicans found themselves in boiling hot water with the road builders last year when the GA and Rauner swept the Road Fund to pass the FY 16 budget “fix.” So, they had some making up to do.
Same thing happened on the Democratic side with the trade unions.
However, I cannot imagine Madigan supporting this hastily crafted proposal (with a ton of unintended consequences) under any other governor.
The proposed constitutional amendment, the Illinois Transportation Taxes and Fees Lockbox Amendment, is highly problematic for several reasons.
• First, its wording is vague, and as a result its actual impact is unclear. The proposed amendment’s lack of clarity may result in more revenue streams, at both state and local levels of government, than intended being restricted to a limited number of transportation related expenses.
• Second, the proposed amendment is likely to divert revenue away from other areas of state and local budgets. The Lockbox Amendment would not increase total revenue—rather, it would change how existing revenue is spent.
• Third, because it is being proposed as a constitutional amendment and not a regular statute, any negative consequences would be extremely difficult to modify or reverse.
The last weekend of October was the deadliest so far this year in Chicago, including among its victims an eighth-grade honors student and twin 17-year-old boys, according to police and data compiled by the Tribune.
Seventeen people were fatally shot in the city between Friday afternoon and early Monday, an extraordinary toll even in a year that is far outpacing last year in shootings and homicides.
Up until now, Father’s Day weekend had been the most violent with 59 people shot, 13 fatally. The same number of people were shot this past weekend but more of the shootings were fatal, according to Tribune data.
The weekend toll also was deadlier than the three long summer holiday weekends when violence typically spikes because of the warm weather. Six people were fatally shot over the Memorial Day weekend, five over the Fourth of July weekend and 13 people over Labor Day weekend, according to Tribune data.
Chicago police are shooting fewer residents and drawing fewer civilian complaints than they were before protests over the fatal 2014 shooting of a black teenager, Laquan McDonald, by a white police officer. […]
The Chicago police have continued to be less active in recent months. Narcotics arrests for the period from Jan. 1 through Oct. 3 were down 47 percent this year, compared with the same time frame in 2015. Meanwhile, crime — especially gun violence — has remained high. The total number of murders, which began increasing after the release of the video, is up by 44 percent so far this year after a 16 percent jump in 2015. Chicago is currently on pace for its highest murder total since the late 1990s and will likely experience its biggest one-year jump since the FBI began keeping track in the early 1930s.9
Relatively few of the city’s murders are solved: As of Oct. 3, the Chicago Police Department had cleared10 only 21.0 percent of murders and other homicides and 2.6 percent of nonfatal shooting incidents in 2016. That’s down considerably from 2015, when 31.8 percent of homicides and 6.1 percent of nonfatal shootings were cleared.
The Chicago Police Department has made significant strides in reducing negative interactions between police and civilians, as measured by complaints and shooting incidents. But those strides may have come at the cost of a severe drop in arrests and a worsening wave of violent crime.
Eric Adelstein, the Chicago based Democratic political consultant, is doing the most anti-Trump-related work in Illinois, with his firm representing LIFT, Mendoza and Schneider. “While Trump allows for a nationalization of message across races, there are different strategic imperatives,” Adelstein said. […]
Adelstein said LIFT is determined not to let Rauner have it both ways. “If your opponent doesn’t want to talk about something, it’s usually a good strategy to force them to talk about it and Trump is that thing they don’t want to talk about.”
A Democrat familiar with Trump-related Illinois polling described the Trump factor as potentially depressing “turnout among good GOP constituencies in Illinois, like affluent, white college-educated voters.
“It means that GOP winners must over perform the top of the ticket by 15 points rather than 10. It means the suburbs are in play for statewide candidates and it means that GOP candidates must alienate their base or risk losing the middle, and even then it might not work,” the source said.
I’m still not completely sure after reading this piece what the actual aim of the Biss spots may be - at least as far as this cycle is concerned. Mendoza is using both Rauner and Trump in her ads, but most legislative races aren’t.
By analyzing data from state legislative races across the country in 2013 and 2014, the Montana-based National Institute on Money in State Politics determined that voters re-elected 91 percent of incumbents running in general elections. Current officeholders who raised more campaign cash than their opponents were even more likely to retain their seats, winning 94 percent of their races.
“Incumbency was the most powerful single factor determining a state legislative candidate’s success in the 2013 and 2014 elections, followed closely by the power of money,” Linda Casey, the institute’s lead researcher, wrote in a March report. The trend has held relatively steady since the 2001 and 2002 state election cycles, according to the institute.
The power of incumbency was even stronger in Illinois in 2014, with only one incumbent out of 124 — former state Sen. Mike Jacobs, D-East Moline — losing in the general election. Three other incumbents, two Democrats and one Republican, withdrew after the primaries. […]
Jacobs’ defeat at the hands of now-Sen. Neil Anderson, R-Rock Island, was a rare loss for an incumbent who raised more money than his challenger. Jacobs spent $2.1 million to Anderson’s $1.9 million in the most expensive legislative race in Illinois history, according to an analysis from Kent Redfield, an emeritus professor of political science at the University of Illinois Springfield.
Those dollar amounts almost seem quaint these days.
The Teachers’ Retirement System of the State of Illinois announced Friday it had given preliminary approval to a contribution request for $4.56 billion to its pension fund.
The changes in state law made last year for determining actuaries’ estimates for adequately funding pensions have greatly increased the amount of contributions statewide.
The Teacher’s Retirement System said of the projected $4.56 billion contribution, just $974 million is needed to pay the cost of pensions for that year. The remaining $3.5 billion is to go toward the amount owed from previous years.
“Most of the fiscal year 2018 contribution is a self-inflicted wound,” TRS Executive Director Dick Ingram said. “That money could be spent on other priorities today if the state of Illinois had fully met its obligations in the past.”
While next year’s contribution to the teachers’ pensions is an eye-popping figure, it is far short of the actuaries’ ceiling. Using the new accounting standards, the state’s annual contribution should be $6.88 billion to catch up with its unfunded liability.
(Tongue FIRMLY planted in cheek) Speaker Madigan is so powerful that at the age of 1 year, while still in diapers, he got the General Assembly to pass and GOP Governor Dwight Green to sign that legislation. WOW! That’s power!
The 1980 cutback amendment passed overwhelmingly, eliminating a few dozen lawmakers from the House of Representatives and helping Madigan consolidate power as speaker when his peers first elected him to that office in 1983.
Yep. Madigan ordered gadfly reformer Pat Quinn to put the Cutback Amendment on the ballot to consolidate his nefarious grip on power. It’s all rigged!
* Related…
* Zorn: Anti-Madigan documentary shows why he’ll be hard to beat
This fiscal year, our state’s general funds are spending $22 billion as a result of court-ordered outlays. Then, there is $12 billion in “hard expenditures” we must pay for debt service, pensions and transfers to local governments and Medicaid accounts.
We can add to those totals another $6 billion in unpaid bills. For example, the state is as much as 673 days late in reimbursing medical providers for employee health care services. […]
These expenditures total $40 billion for the year, but we have only $30 billion in revenue coming into the general funds to pay all these bills.
Of course, we say we must tighten our belts. And, of course, we always can do some of that, but less than you might imagine.
Annual state pension payments of $7.2 billion are mostly debt service for underfunding pensions and sweetening them in years past, and the state high court has said we must pay them.
During the past decade or so, the state also has cut expenditures for schools, universities and social services significantly. State employee numbers are down, from 89,000 in 2001 to 64,500 last year. […]
All I am saying here is cutting “waste and corruption,” the default budget-cutting option of the public, sure won’t alone erase a $10 billion budget shortfall.
More than one-third of social media users are worn out by the amount of political content they encounter, and more than half describe their online interactions with those they disagree with politically as stressful and frustrating
The roughly two-thirds of American adults who use social media sites express a relatively wide range of opinions on the political interactions they witness and take part in on these platforms. Many feel overloaded by political content and view their social media interactions with those they disagree with as a source of frustration and annoyance. At the same time, a substantial minority of users enjoy the ability to consume political content and engage in discussions with people on the other side of issues:
* Nearly twice as many social media users say they are “worn out” by the amount of political content they see in their feeds (37%) as say they like seeing lots of political information (20%). Still, about four-in-ten (41%) indicate that they don’t feel particularly strongly one way or the other about the amount of political content they encounter on social media.
* 59% say their social media interactions with those with opposing political views are stressful and frustrating – although 35% find them interesting and informative.
* 64% say their online encounters with people on the opposite side of the political spectrum leave them feeling as if they have even less in common than they thought – although 29% say they end these discussions feeling that they have more in common than they might have anticipated. […]
Some 40% of users agree strongly with the notion that social media are places where people say things while discussing politics that they would never say in person (an additional 44% feel that this statement describes social media somewhat well).
Meanwhile, roughly half of users feel the political conversations they see on social media are angrier (49%), less respectful (53%) and less civil (49%) than those in other areas of life. At the same time, a notable minority feels that the political discussions they see on social media are largely reflective of the political discussions they witness in other areas of their lives: For instance, 39% of users feel that these interactions are no more less respectful than other political interactions they encounter. And a small share finds political debates on social media to be more civil (7%), more informative (14%) and more focused on important policy issues (10%) than those they see elsewhere. […]
When ignoring problematic content fails, social media users tend to utilize technological tools to remove troublesome users from their feeds entirely. Nearly one-third of social media users (31%) say they have changed their settings in order to see fewer posts from someone in their feed because of something related to politics, while 27% have blocked or unfriended someone for that reason. Taken together, this amounts to 39% of social media users – and 60% of them indicate that they took this step because someone was posting political content that they found offensive. […]
Even as their overall political attitudes differ dramatically, Democrats and Republicans (including independents and other nonpartisans who “lean” toward either party) tend to view and utilize social media in largely comparable ways. For instance, they are equally likely to say that they comment, post about or engage in political discussions on social media (10% of Republican users and 8% of Democrats do so often). And a nearly identical share from each party feels worn out by the amount of political material they encounter on social media (38% of Democrats and 37% of Republicans who use social media report this) or feel that the conversations they see on social media are angrier and less civil than in other venues where these conversations occur. However, Democrats who use social media are somewhat more likely to view these sites as useful vehicles for bringing new voices into the political arena.
During any given campaign season, one or maybe two state legislative campaigns wind up running ads on Chicago broadcast television stations. But in the age of Gov. Bruce Rauner’s gigantic campaign contributions, it may be easier to count the number of Chicago-area candidates who aren’t running any city broadcast ads.
State Rep. Michael McAuliffe (R-Chicago) started the trend by airing Chicago broadcast TV ads at the beginning of August—an act completely without precedent in the General Assembly. Chicago broadcast ads are so expensive that campaigns usually don’t start airing them until mid to late October.
The ads are also incredibly inefficient. The Chicago media market has about 7.9 million people aged 12 or over, as measured by the ratings companies.
Four years ago, during the last presidential cycle, a total of 38,748 votes were cast in McAuliffe’s race. So, when McAuliffe and other House candidates air these ads, they’re aiming them at only about half a percentage point of the entire media market. It’s actually much lower than that because most people have already made up their minds by now. So, it’s like using a hydrogen bomb to kill a tiny gnat.
Just last week, the cash-rich Republicans went up on Chicago broadcast TV in five legislative races: Rod Drobinski vs. Rep. Sam Yingling (D-Grayslake), who also made a broadcast buy late last week; Rep. Chris Winger (R-Wood Dale) vs. Cynthia Borbas, who has been up on Chicago broadcast for a little while with an ad blasting Winger for her social conservatism; Rep. David Olsen (R-Downers Grove), who is fending off a late cable TV buy from Greg Hose; Steve Reick, who’s up against John Bartman, who just launched cable ads in retiring McHenry County Democratic Rep. Jack Franks’ district; and Michelle Smith vs. Sen. Jennifer Bertino-Tarrant (D-Shorewood), who is also on Chicago broadcast.
Keep in mind, those are just the latest to air the ads. Plenty of others were already on Chicago broadcast.
Both candidates in the Rep. Kate Cloonen (D-Kankakee) race have been airing broadcast TV, as have both in Democratic Rep. Andy Skoog’s LaSalle County-area race and both in Democratic Sen. Tom Cullerton’s DuPage County contest, as well as Rep. McAuliffe’s opponent Merry Marwig, among others.
And it’s not just the two parties airing the spots. Dan Proft says his Liberty Principles PAC is currently airing Chicago broadcast ads on behalf of six Republicans.
And it’s not just happening in Chicago. St. Louis broadcast TV has also been a relative rarity for legislative campaign ads. Heck, many statewide candidates forgo advertising in St. Louis because of its high cost-to-benefit ratio.
Rep. Dwight Kay (R-Glen Carbon) has been running ads on St. Louis TV for several weeks, and the Democrats just started airing ads there for Rep. Dan Beiser (D-Alton) to match his Republican opponent Mike Babcock’s buy. The Democrats also started running St. Louis ads for Mike Mathis against Rep. Avery Bourne (R-Raymond).
“It’s crazy,” said one Metro East pal about the flood of St. Louis ads. “I want to throw something at the TV.”
Head up the Mississippi River and you’ll see broadcast TV ads in the Quad Cities for and against Rep. Mike Smiddy (D-Hillsdale). Like in St. Louis, most people who watch Quad Cities television stations don’t live in Illinois.
Then head as far south in Illinois as you can go and Rep. John Bradley (D-Marion) is reportedly pushing a completely unheard of 3,900 gross ratings points on TV stations in and near his district. Generally, if you want half your targeted audience to see an ad three times, you’ll “push” 150 ratings points. Do the math. Bradley must be advertising 24 hours a day on every program.
The Republicans, by the way, estimated last week that they’ve pushed 5,000 points statewide on their anti-House Speaker Michael Madigan message.
But are any of these ads working this late in the game?
Last week, a friend of mine who doesn’t watch much broadcast television said he was watching “Chicago’s Very Own” WGN and texted me the ads as they popped up on his TV: “Anti-Yingling, pro-Duckworth, anti-Mendoza, anti-Skoog, anti-Yingling (again), anti-Cloonen. All back-to-back in a single commercial break.”
A few minutes later, he texted: “Hey back to commercials! Anti-Bartman, anti-Cullerton. Anti-Trump/Rauner (new from LIFT). What is this! An ad for Target. Like, a real ad for buying cheap [stuff]. Refreshing.”
“Seriously,” he texted, “it was just one big jumble. Nothing could break through this. And if you were getting 20 pieces of mail? Shoot me now.”
