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Anyone remember the crime problem?

Monday, Oct 31, 2016

* Lots of distractions out there with the presidential election and the World Series. But Chicago just had a terrible weekend.

From the Tribune

The last weekend of October was the deadliest so far this year in Chicago, including among its victims an eighth-grade honors student and twin 17-year-old boys, according to police and data compiled by the Tribune.

Seventeen people were fatally shot in the city between Friday afternoon and early Monday, an extraordinary toll even in a year that is far outpacing last year in shootings and homicides.

Up until now, Father’s Day weekend had been the most violent with 59 people shot, 13 fatally. The same number of people were shot this past weekend but more of the shootings were fatal, according to Tribune data.

The weekend toll also was deadlier than the three long summer holiday weekends when violence typically spikes because of the warm weather. Six people were fatally shot over the Memorial Day weekend, five over the Fourth of July weekend and 13 people over Labor Day weekend, according to Tribune data.

* Meanwhile, from FiveThirtyEight

Chicago police are shooting fewer residents and drawing fewer civilian complaints than they were before protests over the fatal 2014 shooting of a black teenager, Laquan McDonald, by a white police officer. […]

The Chicago police have continued to be less active in recent months. Narcotics arrests for the period from Jan. 1 through Oct. 3 were down 47 percent this year, compared with the same time frame in 2015. Meanwhile, crime — especially gun violence — has remained high. The total number of murders, which began increasing after the release of the video, is up by 44 percent so far this year after a 16 percent jump in 2015. Chicago is currently on pace for its highest murder total since the late 1990s and will likely experience its biggest one-year jump since the FBI began keeping track in the early 1930s.9

Relatively few of the city’s murders are solved: As of Oct. 3, the Chicago Police Department had cleared10 only 21.0 percent of murders and other homicides and 2.6 percent of nonfatal shooting incidents in 2016. That’s down considerably from 2015, when 31.8 percent of homicides and 6.1 percent of nonfatal shootings were cleared.

The Chicago Police Department has made significant strides in reducing negative interactions between police and civilians, as measured by complaints and shooting incidents. But those strides may have come at the cost of a severe drop in arrests and a worsening wave of violent crime.

* Related…

* Twin brothers, 17, among 17 killed in deadliest weekend of year

* Shots Fired at CPD Officers in 2 Separate Stops

* Man shot during Facebook Live post in March among those killed Friday

* Man critically wounded in drive-by shooting in South Shore

- Posted by Rich Miller        


21 Comments
  1. - Foie Gras For All - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 11:27 am:

    Wow, Chicago has a shot (pun intended) at 700 homicides for 2016. Truly sad. Rahm’s legacy.


  2. - Roman - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 11:28 am:

    Interesting Fivethirtyeight piece.

    As the data keep rolling in, it’s getting harder to argue against the “Ferguson Effect” theory.


  3. - Last Bull Moose - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 11:42 am:

    Given the cost to the City of the wrongful death lawsuits, this may be cost effective policing.

    I don’t think anyone knows how to police the most violent neighborhoods.


  4. - TRN - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 11:56 am:

    A whole lot of CPD officers on the streets around Wrigley Field this weekend. Was anyone left to patrol high-crime areas?


  5. - Federalist - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 12:09 pm:

    “I don’t think anyone knows how to police the most violent neighborhoods.”

    Yep that pretty much sums it up. and that combined with the ‘race’ factor makes it even more impossible.

    I know there must be some bad or over zealous cops out there but is their anyone on this site that would like to police those areas if they had their career to start over.

    If so, tell me why and what you would do. Not expecting many responses.


  6. - weltschmerz - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 12:12 pm:

    Each of the wounded costs an average of $55K for treatment. Most of it borne by the tax payers.


  7. - Responsa - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 12:14 pm:

    ==I don’t think anyone knows how to police the most violent neighborhoods.==

    Sadly, I’m afraid this is true. Equally sad, there are many good and decent people who live in constant fear in these neighborhoods amidst the crime and violence.


  8. - Belle - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 12:16 pm:

    There was almost no news (everything is the election and the Cubs) about it until this AM.
    It’s a pathetic issue. Shootings seem to be over retribution and drugs.
    I haven’t a clue of how this will end unless ‘they’ finally shoot each other to the point where there is no one left. It feels so hopeless.


  9. - to the point - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 12:29 pm:

    it is hopeless. These are urban war zones that are devoid of any sense of appropriate structure and control….anarchy plain and simple. And to blame the mayor and/or law enforcement for this situation is naïve to say the least. The only solution is for those living in these war zones, the responsible ones at least, to take steps to change the culture, but change starts from within. Then others can step in and help.


  10. - crazybleedingheart - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 12:39 pm:

    8/9 comments authored by Hurricane Statehousechick?


  11. - Just Observing - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 12:42 pm:

    === As the data keep rolling in, it’s getting harder to argue against the “Ferguson Effect” theory. ===

    Is it that police are afraid too afraid of being internet sensations do their jobs effectively, or some police are taking a FU attitude (you want us to hold back, then here you go, here’s what you get), or some combination of the both?

    In the end, overly-aggressive policing, civil rights violations, racial profiling, etc. cannot be part of the equation. Police will have to police under the watchful eye of Facebook, YouTube, etc.


  12. - Smith - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 1:02 pm:

    How many arrests? No one is more aware of the clearance rate than these shooters.


  13. - Roman - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 1:19 pm:

    @Just Observing

    Based on what I’ve heard from cops, it’s both. The paperwork required for the new contact card system plays a factor, too.

    I think figuring out how to use the “target list” data is the key, I just don’t have the answer.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/24/us/armed-with-data-chicago-police-try-to-predict-who-may-shoot-or-be-shot.html


  14. - Precinct Captain - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 1:22 pm:

    The Sun Times I believe did a story over the weekend about the CPD applying for grants from DOJ saying they were severely understaffed while publicly saying they didn’t.


  15. - Touré's Latte - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 2:34 pm:

    The deaths are horrific. The “Shots Fired at CPD Officers in 2 Separate Stops” is chilling.


  16. - anon - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 2:39 pm:

    A 47 percent jump in homicides suggests police did a more effective job last year. It also suggests that Richie and Rahm were blowing smoke all those years they insisted there were enough cops on the street.


  17. - IRLJ - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 3:01 pm:

    I’m just a layman, but it seems to me that the correlation between police activity and homicides depends on the notion that police are holding back from preventing people from getting killed. Really?
    A correlation I’m more confident in is that if there were fewer guns available, fewer people would get shot.


  18. - Anonymous - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 3:51 pm:

    I believe approximately 1,000 police officers were detailed to Wrigley Field and the surrounding neighborhood. I wonder what the staffing numbers were for other police districts over the same weekend?


  19. - Anonymous - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 4:20 pm:

    I feel for the people who have to live in fear inside their own homes. It’s clear that locking them up is not the answer. What is the answer to stopping crime? Rehab? Education? Jobs?


  20. - Mama - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 4:22 pm:

    How do we stop kids from killing kids?


  21. - Tom K. - Monday, Oct 31, 16 @ 9:34 pm:

    Or, how do we inventivize people who do not have the resources (be they economic, cultural, emotional, educational, whatever) from having those kids to begin with? Maybe it’s time to start trading dollars for implantable birth control, vasectomies, etc.. The folks who are certain of anthropogenic global warming should be all over this idea.


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