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Schilling poll has him ahead by 13

Monday, Aug 20, 2012

* Schilling says he’s ahead by double digits

A new poll of likely voters in the 17th Congressional District puts U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling ahead of his Democratic opponent, Cheri Bustos, by 13 points.

The internal poll by the Schilling campaign surveyed 400 people between Aug. 8 and 9 and found that 50 percent would vote for Rep. Schilling, R-Colona, and 37 percent would back Ms. Bustos, of East Moline.

Ms. Bustos has increased her support by 2 points from the last poll of the district conducted by the Schilling campaign in May. Rep. Schilling had the support of 51 percent of those polled in May to 35 percent for Ms. Bustos.

Terry Schilling, Rep. Schilling’s campaign manager, released the new poll on Friday and said he was pleased with the numbers. The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

Prompted by the release of the Schilling poll, the Bustos campaign released its own numbers from an internal poll taken in February. The poll found support of 44 percent for Rep. Schilling to 35 percent for Ms. Bustos. But when the 400 likely voters surveyed where given positive information about both candidates, Rep. Schilling’s lead narrowed to just four points. [See below for more info. The Bustos poll showed she actually led by four points after the positive pushes.]

* From the polling memo

Key Findings

1. Bobby Schilling continues to have a solid image in the district. Incumbent Bobby Schilling’s name ID is 84% and he has positive image ration of more than two to one (42% fav/20% unfav). These numbers are especially strong given how much of the district is new territory for Schilling.

2. Democrat challenger Cheri Bustos’ name ID is under 50%, and her image is polarized among those with an opinion of her. Cheri Bustos’s name ID sits at 49%, and just 29% of voters have an opinion of her (16% fav/13% unfav). Bustos’ image is essentially unchanged since our May survey, and she is running out of time to adequately define herself.

3. Bobby Schilling continues to lead by double digits on the Congressional ballot. Schilling leads Bustos by thirteen points on the ballot (50% Schilling/37% Bustos). Schilling’s support from Republicans is north of 90%, and he also has a significant advantage with Independent voters (50% Schilling/22% Bustos).

* Methodology

Public Opinion Strategies completed a survey of 400 likely voters in Illinois’ newly drawn 17Congressional District August 8-9, 2012. The survey has a margin of error of +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.

* The Schilling campaign also provided this polling roundup…

Schilling 44, Bustos 35 (February 2012) — The Bustos campaign released this internal poll—conducted in February—during the weekend of August 18 in response to the latest Public Opinion Strategies poll released by the Schilling campaign. Bustos was nominated in early March.

Schilling 51, Bustos 35 (May 2012) — In May, the Schilling campaign released this poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies. This was the first publicly released poll of the cycle.

Schilling 50, Bustos 37 (August 2012) — The Rock Island Argus and Moline Dispatch reported this new poll result on Sunday. Public Opinion Strategies also conducted this poll.


…Adding…
The Bustos campaign notes that their polling memo from May showed this

After hearing positive information on both candidates (slightly more on Bustos than Schilling), the Congressman’s lead evaporates and Bustos opens up a 45 – 41 percent lead. In other words, Bustos gains the lead before voters even hear about Schilling’s vulnerabilities.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


13 Comments
  1. - western illinois - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:29 am:

    What hope do the dems have against Scilling w/o a big union effort?
    Lets go poke sticks in their eye. This is how a party that represents a few pultocrats wins. Its smart


  2. - western illinois - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:54 am:

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/20/1121704/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-NRCC-reserves-10-million-in-ad-time-in-12-districts?showAll=yes

    Sorry its long but the NRCC is spending here so he must show some vulnerbility. They may also be trying to lock this up. I dont think Braley and Loebsack are in trouble but Dogfighting advocate Steve King is …..Speaking of dogs MO Gov Nixon did not get teh Farm Bureau endoresement even though he pandered to them by weaking the Puppy Mill Referendum. So go stick it to the majority of the state to pander to people who will never endorse you or vote for you


  3. - Shemp - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:18 am:

    Schilling has shown he has a good learning curve. He did come in quite raw, but he’s very good in person. I’ve met more than a few politicians over the years, and Schilling comes off as genuine, passionate and interested as any of them. No less, never would have guessed in a hundred years he would have been the front-runner for re-election in the district Lane Evans held for so long.


  4. - trolls4jobs - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:23 am:

    That shows a lot of momentum. Bustos is clearly not connecting with voters.


  5. - PoliSciGeek - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:27 am:

    4.9% margin of error in 95 out of 100 cases.

    This poll barely meets the 95% confidence interval needed to be seen as legitamite. I would like to see a national poliing firm (not a campaign sponsored poll) done in the 17th. Surprised there hasn’t been one yet.


  6. - Aldyth - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:34 am:

    Schilling has the advantage of using his franking privelege to send out “newsletters” to his constituents that are thinly disguised campaign literature.


  7. - Inside Baseball - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:50 am:

    There’s no doubt that Bustos’ polls say pretty much the same thing, or they would’ve released them. Releasing a poll from February that shows Schilling with a nine point lead? Really? What did they think would come of that?


  8. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:53 am:

    Couldn’t Schilling releasing results like that hurt his fundraising. If he’s that far ahead, why give him money.

    Or is the idea to hurt Bustos’ fundraising?


  9. - BFro - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 12:12 pm:

    PolSciGeek- Schilling’s polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies, is a partisan firm, but is a very well-regarded, national firm. A 400 ppl sample in a congressional district is good sample and the industry standard for political polling.

    It’s pathetic that Bustos released a poll from February showing her down. How is that a good idea?


  10. - Ricodem - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 1:07 pm:

    Are people really surprised that a former public relations executive who made $380,000 per year is having a hard time connecting with voters in a very blue collar district?


  11. - Paul - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 1:45 pm:

    I live in the 17th District. I also took a phone poll about that time. It sounded an awful lot like a push poll. There were a lot of, would you change your mind if you knew, type of questions. There were many more of those questions asked about Bustos than Schilling. It was about a 10 to 2 ratio. A good number of the Bustos questions were about her alderman days, they tried to place every city council decision at her feet. I did not catch the name of the polling firm. When I noticed the woman kept pronouncing Bustos wrong, I asked where she was calling from, it was Texas. When I mentioned that the poll was sounding like push poll, the lady just laughed.


  12. - Paul - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 2:01 pm:

    Why didn’t Schilling release the questions asked?


  13. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 3:00 pm:

    –Are people really surprised that a former public relations executive who made $380,000 per year is having a hard time connecting with voters in a very blue collar district?–

    Class warfare! lol.

    What’s next: Mitt, Paul and the Tea Party ride to the rescue to save Medicare? You think anyone buys that? Got no game.

    You’ll drop your tranny shifting from fifth to reverse like that.

    Are you the dude from the QC that said Aaron Schock was one of the most accomplished politicians and legislators in U.S. history?

    I seriously doubt Cheri has a problem connecting with anyone. You might want to call it over, but it ain’t over.


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