SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Schilling poll has him ahead by 13

Monday, Aug 20, 2012

* Schilling says he’s ahead by double digits

A new poll of likely voters in the 17th Congressional District puts U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling ahead of his Democratic opponent, Cheri Bustos, by 13 points.

The internal poll by the Schilling campaign surveyed 400 people between Aug. 8 and 9 and found that 50 percent would vote for Rep. Schilling, R-Colona, and 37 percent would back Ms. Bustos, of East Moline.

Ms. Bustos has increased her support by 2 points from the last poll of the district conducted by the Schilling campaign in May. Rep. Schilling had the support of 51 percent of those polled in May to 35 percent for Ms. Bustos.

Terry Schilling, Rep. Schilling’s campaign manager, released the new poll on Friday and said he was pleased with the numbers. The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

Prompted by the release of the Schilling poll, the Bustos campaign released its own numbers from an internal poll taken in February. The poll found support of 44 percent for Rep. Schilling to 35 percent for Ms. Bustos. But when the 400 likely voters surveyed where given positive information about both candidates, Rep. Schilling’s lead narrowed to just four points. [See below for more info. The Bustos poll showed she actually led by four points after the positive pushes.]

* From the polling memo

Key Findings

1. Bobby Schilling continues to have a solid image in the district. Incumbent Bobby Schilling’s name ID is 84% and he has positive image ration of more than two to one (42% fav/20% unfav). These numbers are especially strong given how much of the district is new territory for Schilling.

2. Democrat challenger Cheri Bustos’ name ID is under 50%, and her image is polarized among those with an opinion of her. Cheri Bustos’s name ID sits at 49%, and just 29% of voters have an opinion of her (16% fav/13% unfav). Bustos’ image is essentially unchanged since our May survey, and she is running out of time to adequately define herself.

3. Bobby Schilling continues to lead by double digits on the Congressional ballot. Schilling leads Bustos by thirteen points on the ballot (50% Schilling/37% Bustos). Schilling’s support from Republicans is north of 90%, and he also has a significant advantage with Independent voters (50% Schilling/22% Bustos).

* Methodology

Public Opinion Strategies completed a survey of 400 likely voters in Illinois’ newly drawn 17Congressional District August 8-9, 2012. The survey has a margin of error of +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.

* The Schilling campaign also provided this polling roundup…

Schilling 44, Bustos 35 (February 2012) — The Bustos campaign released this internal poll—conducted in February—during the weekend of August 18 in response to the latest Public Opinion Strategies poll released by the Schilling campaign. Bustos was nominated in early March.

Schilling 51, Bustos 35 (May 2012) — In May, the Schilling campaign released this poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies. This was the first publicly released poll of the cycle.

Schilling 50, Bustos 37 (August 2012) — The Rock Island Argus and Moline Dispatch reported this new poll result on Sunday. Public Opinion Strategies also conducted this poll.


…Adding…
The Bustos campaign notes that their polling memo from May showed this

After hearing positive information on both candidates (slightly more on Bustos than Schilling), the Congressman’s lead evaporates and Bustos opens up a 45 – 41 percent lead. In other words, Bustos gains the lead before voters even hear about Schilling’s vulnerabilities.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


13 Comments
  1. - western illinois - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:29 am:

    What hope do the dems have against Scilling w/o a big union effort?
    Lets go poke sticks in their eye. This is how a party that represents a few pultocrats wins. Its smart


  2. - western illinois - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:54 am:

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/20/1121704/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-NRCC-reserves-10-million-in-ad-time-in-12-districts?showAll=yes

    Sorry its long but the NRCC is spending here so he must show some vulnerbility. They may also be trying to lock this up. I dont think Braley and Loebsack are in trouble but Dogfighting advocate Steve King is …..Speaking of dogs MO Gov Nixon did not get teh Farm Bureau endoresement even though he pandered to them by weaking the Puppy Mill Referendum. So go stick it to the majority of the state to pander to people who will never endorse you or vote for you


  3. - Shemp - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:18 am:

    Schilling has shown he has a good learning curve. He did come in quite raw, but he’s very good in person. I’ve met more than a few politicians over the years, and Schilling comes off as genuine, passionate and interested as any of them. No less, never would have guessed in a hundred years he would have been the front-runner for re-election in the district Lane Evans held for so long.


  4. - trolls4jobs - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:23 am:

    That shows a lot of momentum. Bustos is clearly not connecting with voters.


  5. - PoliSciGeek - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:27 am:

    4.9% margin of error in 95 out of 100 cases.

    This poll barely meets the 95% confidence interval needed to be seen as legitamite. I would like to see a national poliing firm (not a campaign sponsored poll) done in the 17th. Surprised there hasn’t been one yet.


  6. - Aldyth - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:34 am:

    Schilling has the advantage of using his franking privelege to send out “newsletters” to his constituents that are thinly disguised campaign literature.


  7. - Inside Baseball - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:50 am:

    There’s no doubt that Bustos’ polls say pretty much the same thing, or they would’ve released them. Releasing a poll from February that shows Schilling with a nine point lead? Really? What did they think would come of that?


  8. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:53 am:

    Couldn’t Schilling releasing results like that hurt his fundraising. If he’s that far ahead, why give him money.

    Or is the idea to hurt Bustos’ fundraising?


  9. - BFro - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 12:12 pm:

    PolSciGeek- Schilling’s polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies, is a partisan firm, but is a very well-regarded, national firm. A 400 ppl sample in a congressional district is good sample and the industry standard for political polling.

    It’s pathetic that Bustos released a poll from February showing her down. How is that a good idea?


  10. - Ricodem - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 1:07 pm:

    Are people really surprised that a former public relations executive who made $380,000 per year is having a hard time connecting with voters in a very blue collar district?


  11. - Paul - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 1:45 pm:

    I live in the 17th District. I also took a phone poll about that time. It sounded an awful lot like a push poll. There were a lot of, would you change your mind if you knew, type of questions. There were many more of those questions asked about Bustos than Schilling. It was about a 10 to 2 ratio. A good number of the Bustos questions were about her alderman days, they tried to place every city council decision at her feet. I did not catch the name of the polling firm. When I noticed the woman kept pronouncing Bustos wrong, I asked where she was calling from, it was Texas. When I mentioned that the poll was sounding like push poll, the lady just laughed.


  12. - Paul - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 2:01 pm:

    Why didn’t Schilling release the questions asked?


  13. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 3:00 pm:

    –Are people really surprised that a former public relations executive who made $380,000 per year is having a hard time connecting with voters in a very blue collar district?–

    Class warfare! lol.

    What’s next: Mitt, Paul and the Tea Party ride to the rescue to save Medicare? You think anyone buys that? Got no game.

    You’ll drop your tranny shifting from fifth to reverse like that.

    Are you the dude from the QC that said Aaron Schock was one of the most accomplished politicians and legislators in U.S. history?

    I seriously doubt Cheri has a problem connecting with anyone. You might want to call it over, but it ain’t over.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* AG Madigan opposes Exelon, ComEd "bailout"
* Chamber turns thumbs down on AFL-CIO demand
* Question of the day
* Ammons feels the Bern
* Carrigan: Agreed bill process or nothing
* Rivers Casino Needs to Drop its Unsavory Political Tactics Against Fantasy Sports
* Better late than never, I suppose
* *** LIVE *** Session Coverage
* Good investments, but not for the city
* Fantasy Sports Is Internet Gaming
* Baricevic hit over fundraising
* Simple answers to simple questions
* Talking past each other
* The more things change...
* *** UPDATED x1 - GOPs participated as well *** HDems move to shield social service contracts from immediate cancellation
* Brown: Democrats need a plan
* Durbin begs backers: "Cool it"
* Remap reformers declare victory
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Apple Pay Support in Singapore Expands to Five Major Banks
* Crowdfunded GOLE1 PC dual-boots Windows 10 and Android
* Apple Hiring Lawyer With Health Privacy Expertise, HIPAA Experience
* End of life for the Nexus Player at the Google Store
* Android Wear on Samsung Gear not happening again anytime soon [UPDATE]
* Siri SDK may open Apple up to voice assistant frenzy
* Huawei sues Samsung for infringing on user software and 4G patents

* White Sox employing eight-man 'pen
* Uribe has nothing but love for Chicago, fans
* Nobody's more impactful than combo of Sale-Quintana
* New book helps paint portrait of Shoeless Joe
* White Sox survive doubleheader and turn to Chris Sale
* Ventura pleased starters worked deep in DH
* Nobody's more impactful than combo of Sale-Quintana

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* No consensus on automatic voter registration – .....
* Thousands rally for Exelon; Madigan calls bill .....
* Brown: Democrats' short list of gov candidates .....
* Lawmaker Meetings Continue, But No State Budget.....
* Governor Likens Drug Policy To Naming State Pie.....
* Rauner Approval Rating Hits All-Time Low - Prog.....
* A third year with a phony budget? If so, Govern.....


* ATV crashes kill youths in Clark, McHenry counties
* Illinois lawmaker, university spar over research animals
* Illinois remapping issue step closer to November ballot
* Family agrees to $1.1M settlement in WWII veteran's death
* Schaumburg woman gets 5 years for friend's drug death
* Prosecutor: Man charged with having bombs wanted to kill
* State Police announces traffic safety initiative
* Chicago has ambulance equipped to handle infectious diseases
* Family asks for FBI investigation of 2013 police shooting
* Jury duty proving costly in Knox County

* Illinois pushes legal aid for juveniles in murder cases
* Bill to ban sale of ‘bath salts’ sent to governor
* Illinois lawmaker, university spar over research animals
* Illinois remapping issue inches closer to November ballot
* Republicans doubtful Illinois State Fairgrounds foundation bill will pass
* GOP leaders: No tax hike with no reforms
* State election board questions automatic voter registration
* Feeding sites to still serve needy children in Springfield
* U.S. Supreme Court rejects request to reconsider Blagojevich case
* Rauner says there's still time for 'grand compromise'

* TreeHouse Foods to close 2 plants it bought from ConAgra
* Airlines hope to charge you more next year
* Monsanto rejects $62 billion Bayer offer
* Choose Chicago relaunches fight for state funding
* Goodbye, empty nest: Millennials staying longer with parents


*
* Some charter schools won’t survive proposed budget cuts
* 16-year-old boy shot in McKinley Park
* ‘Body of an American’ a brilliant picture of the ghosts of war
* TreeHouse Foods to close 2 plants it bought from ConAgra
* Former Bear Ryan Mundy suing helmet manufacturer for 2014 injury
* Brown: Democrats’ short list of gov candidates is pretty short
* Iowa man allegedly made fake pot that led to Aurora teen’s death
* One killed in NW Indiana crash
* Four ways to cut those airport lines for good


* White Sox lead Indians 1-0
* Sox slugger Jose Abreu connects on visit to school for autistic students
* Trump would crush winners of the U.S. economy
* UN secretary general frontrunner faces internal uproar
* Waukegan cops arrest man accused of hitting officer with car at Walmart
* Lake Geneva, Wis., mom who disappeared with sons faces criminal charges
* O'Hare marks warmest day so far of 2016
* With White Sox playing well, closer David Robertson's signing paying off
* Virginia governor: I followed the law in accepting donations
* Cubs surge to 6-0 lead in 1st


* Illinois pushes legal aid for juveniles in murder cases
* Bill to ban sale of ‘bath salts’ sent to governor
* Illinois lawmaker, university spar over research animals
* Illinois remapping issue inches closer to November ballot
* Republicans doubtful Illinois State Fairgrounds foundation bill will pass
* Kathleen Parker: Election disaffection
* GOP leaders: No tax hike with no reforms
* State election board questions automatic voter registration
* Feeding sites to still serve needy children in Springfield
* U.S. Supreme Court rejects request to reconsider Blagojevich case


* South Peoria acquires permanent location for its tool library
* PODCAST: SportsTalk 05-24-16
* Gabby's Law goes to governor
* Bill expanding alcohol sales at universities on its way to Rauner
* 14-year prison sentence for plea in break-in
* Thousands rally for Exelon; Madigan calls bill a 'bailout'
* Bill Cosby is ordered to stand trial in sex case
* Trump says decision to seek donations followed GOP request
* Clinton, Sanders make all-out blitz in California primary
* VA chief: 'I deeply regret' wait-time comparison to Disney


* Softball: Huntley, St. Charles East open regionals with wins
* Buffalo Grove students win contest with idea born in laundry
* Illinois dismisses Nunn after domestic battery guilty plea
* Derby winner Nyquist is sick and won't run in Belmont
* Mom sentenced to prison for disabled daughter's death hospitalized

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Brown: Democrats' short list of gov candid......
* Time Is Running Out For The Senate To Fina......
* US Sen. Durbin cites problems with House P......

* Letter: Kirk's leadership encourages suppo......

* University of Illinois, SEIU pushing bills that grant subsidies for non-American higher ed students
* University of Illinois, SEIU pushing bills granting subsidies to non-American higher ed students
* Emanuel Unveils Proposal For Tackling Laborers Pension Fund
* First Hurdle Cleared For Ballot Question In Legislative Remapping Effort
* Undocumented Chicago Activist To Sue Federal Immigration Agency Over DACA Denial
* Illinoisans Sound Off On Exelon/ComEd Bill As Report Unveils Dangers At Their Local Nuclear Sites
* CTU To Protest In Solidarity With Fired Teachers In Mexico
* Rauner Approval Rating Hits All-Time Low
* Four more GOP Congressman speak out against IL GOP marriage plank change
* Chicago Alderman: Homeowners Who Install Security Cameras Should Get A Rebate


* Emergency Management Officials, National Weather Service Encourage Winter Preparedness - November is Winter Weather Preparedness Month in Illinois
* Keep Your Family Safe This Winter - November through February are leading months for carbon monoxide related incidents
* Governor Takes Bill Action
* Illinois Department of Labor Director Hugo Chaviano Awards Governor’s Award for Contributions in Health and Safety to the Illinois Refining Division of Marathon Petroleum Company LP
* State Regulator Elected Treasurer of Interstate Medical Licensure Compact




Hosted by MCS -- CapitolFax.com Privacy Policy -- SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax -- Advertise Here -- Mobile Version -- Contact Rich Miller