SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Schilling poll has him ahead by 13

Monday, Aug 20, 2012

* Schilling says he’s ahead by double digits

A new poll of likely voters in the 17th Congressional District puts U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling ahead of his Democratic opponent, Cheri Bustos, by 13 points.

The internal poll by the Schilling campaign surveyed 400 people between Aug. 8 and 9 and found that 50 percent would vote for Rep. Schilling, R-Colona, and 37 percent would back Ms. Bustos, of East Moline.

Ms. Bustos has increased her support by 2 points from the last poll of the district conducted by the Schilling campaign in May. Rep. Schilling had the support of 51 percent of those polled in May to 35 percent for Ms. Bustos.

Terry Schilling, Rep. Schilling’s campaign manager, released the new poll on Friday and said he was pleased with the numbers. The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

Prompted by the release of the Schilling poll, the Bustos campaign released its own numbers from an internal poll taken in February. The poll found support of 44 percent for Rep. Schilling to 35 percent for Ms. Bustos. But when the 400 likely voters surveyed where given positive information about both candidates, Rep. Schilling’s lead narrowed to just four points. [See below for more info. The Bustos poll showed she actually led by four points after the positive pushes.]

* From the polling memo

Key Findings

1. Bobby Schilling continues to have a solid image in the district. Incumbent Bobby Schilling’s name ID is 84% and he has positive image ration of more than two to one (42% fav/20% unfav). These numbers are especially strong given how much of the district is new territory for Schilling.

2. Democrat challenger Cheri Bustos’ name ID is under 50%, and her image is polarized among those with an opinion of her. Cheri Bustos’s name ID sits at 49%, and just 29% of voters have an opinion of her (16% fav/13% unfav). Bustos’ image is essentially unchanged since our May survey, and she is running out of time to adequately define herself.

3. Bobby Schilling continues to lead by double digits on the Congressional ballot. Schilling leads Bustos by thirteen points on the ballot (50% Schilling/37% Bustos). Schilling’s support from Republicans is north of 90%, and he also has a significant advantage with Independent voters (50% Schilling/22% Bustos).

* Methodology

Public Opinion Strategies completed a survey of 400 likely voters in Illinois’ newly drawn 17Congressional District August 8-9, 2012. The survey has a margin of error of +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.

* The Schilling campaign also provided this polling roundup…

Schilling 44, Bustos 35 (February 2012) — The Bustos campaign released this internal poll—conducted in February—during the weekend of August 18 in response to the latest Public Opinion Strategies poll released by the Schilling campaign. Bustos was nominated in early March.

Schilling 51, Bustos 35 (May 2012) — In May, the Schilling campaign released this poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies. This was the first publicly released poll of the cycle.

Schilling 50, Bustos 37 (August 2012) — The Rock Island Argus and Moline Dispatch reported this new poll result on Sunday. Public Opinion Strategies also conducted this poll.


…Adding…
The Bustos campaign notes that their polling memo from May showed this

After hearing positive information on both candidates (slightly more on Bustos than Schilling), the Congressman’s lead evaporates and Bustos opens up a 45 – 41 percent lead. In other words, Bustos gains the lead before voters even hear about Schilling’s vulnerabilities.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


13 Comments
  1. - western illinois - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:29 am:

    What hope do the dems have against Scilling w/o a big union effort?
    Lets go poke sticks in their eye. This is how a party that represents a few pultocrats wins. Its smart


  2. - western illinois - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:54 am:

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/20/1121704/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-NRCC-reserves-10-million-in-ad-time-in-12-districts?showAll=yes

    Sorry its long but the NRCC is spending here so he must show some vulnerbility. They may also be trying to lock this up. I dont think Braley and Loebsack are in trouble but Dogfighting advocate Steve King is …..Speaking of dogs MO Gov Nixon did not get teh Farm Bureau endoresement even though he pandered to them by weaking the Puppy Mill Referendum. So go stick it to the majority of the state to pander to people who will never endorse you or vote for you


  3. - Shemp - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:18 am:

    Schilling has shown he has a good learning curve. He did come in quite raw, but he’s very good in person. I’ve met more than a few politicians over the years, and Schilling comes off as genuine, passionate and interested as any of them. No less, never would have guessed in a hundred years he would have been the front-runner for re-election in the district Lane Evans held for so long.


  4. - trolls4jobs - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:23 am:

    That shows a lot of momentum. Bustos is clearly not connecting with voters.


  5. - PoliSciGeek - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:27 am:

    4.9% margin of error in 95 out of 100 cases.

    This poll barely meets the 95% confidence interval needed to be seen as legitamite. I would like to see a national poliing firm (not a campaign sponsored poll) done in the 17th. Surprised there hasn’t been one yet.


  6. - Aldyth - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:34 am:

    Schilling has the advantage of using his franking privelege to send out “newsletters” to his constituents that are thinly disguised campaign literature.


  7. - Inside Baseball - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:50 am:

    There’s no doubt that Bustos’ polls say pretty much the same thing, or they would’ve released them. Releasing a poll from February that shows Schilling with a nine point lead? Really? What did they think would come of that?


  8. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:53 am:

    Couldn’t Schilling releasing results like that hurt his fundraising. If he’s that far ahead, why give him money.

    Or is the idea to hurt Bustos’ fundraising?


  9. - BFro - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 12:12 pm:

    PolSciGeek- Schilling’s polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies, is a partisan firm, but is a very well-regarded, national firm. A 400 ppl sample in a congressional district is good sample and the industry standard for political polling.

    It’s pathetic that Bustos released a poll from February showing her down. How is that a good idea?


  10. - Ricodem - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 1:07 pm:

    Are people really surprised that a former public relations executive who made $380,000 per year is having a hard time connecting with voters in a very blue collar district?


  11. - Paul - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 1:45 pm:

    I live in the 17th District. I also took a phone poll about that time. It sounded an awful lot like a push poll. There were a lot of, would you change your mind if you knew, type of questions. There were many more of those questions asked about Bustos than Schilling. It was about a 10 to 2 ratio. A good number of the Bustos questions were about her alderman days, they tried to place every city council decision at her feet. I did not catch the name of the polling firm. When I noticed the woman kept pronouncing Bustos wrong, I asked where she was calling from, it was Texas. When I mentioned that the poll was sounding like push poll, the lady just laughed.


  12. - Paul - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 2:01 pm:

    Why didn’t Schilling release the questions asked?


  13. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 3:00 pm:

    –Are people really surprised that a former public relations executive who made $380,000 per year is having a hard time connecting with voters in a very blue collar district?–

    Class warfare! lol.

    What’s next: Mitt, Paul and the Tea Party ride to the rescue to save Medicare? You think anyone buys that? Got no game.

    You’ll drop your tranny shifting from fifth to reverse like that.

    Are you the dude from the QC that said Aaron Schock was one of the most accomplished politicians and legislators in U.S. history?

    I seriously doubt Cheri has a problem connecting with anyone. You might want to call it over, but it ain’t over.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* House GOP candidate rents to a sex offender, blames Madigan for "trying to distract" voters
* Gonzales attends tax hike rally, says he's not done with politics
* Question of the day
* I'm just so done with this US Senate campaign
* AFSCME wants apology from IDOC for blaming workers in inmate assault
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Rauner claims he's spending "all my time" on reforms, not campaigns
* Daley whines about Emanuel, but poll results indicate he's wrong
* *** UPDATED x1 - White House responds *** Reporters focus on stroke angle, Dems hit race angle
* Maybe a phone call might help?
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Legislator wants to stop Pokémon Go from leading players to protected sites
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - New cable TV buys
* Another big budget hit coming?
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* LG V20 looks to keep its secondary display in latest leak
* Apple Stops Signing iOS 9.3.2 and iOS 9.3.3
* Samsung Launches Limited iOS Beta Program for Gear S2 Smart Watch
* OxygenOS Community Builds begin with version 3.5 for the OnePlus 3
* We thought the Samsung Gear S2 iOS beta wouldn’t happen, but it’s happening
* Google is opening up WiFi Assistant for all Nexus devices
* Weibo hits up the Le 2s Pro with a different design in mind

* Gonzalez throws successful bullpen Wednesday
* U.S. Cellular to become Guaranteed Rate Field
* White Sox take part in PLAY Campaign
* U.S. Cellular to become Guaranteed Rate Field
* White Sox roll past Phillies with Rodon at wheel
* Rodon unlocks backdoor in commanding win
* Rodon rolls on as White Sox pound Phillies

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Brown: Treasurer tackles insurance companies’ d.....
* Illinois passes tougher penalties on importing .....
* Bernard Schoenburg: Illinois an ‘outlier’ in pa.....
* Mining industry fights downturn in southern Ill.....
* Editorial: A chance for Guv to let voters have .....
* Who’s political now? An unvarnished look at the.....
* Smiddy introduces bill to cut perks for lawmakers..
* Illinois officials: Pension change could be 'de.....
* Editorial: A chance for Guv to let voters have .....
* Rauner Focuses on Fixing Illinois' Political Sy.....


* Hope Solo suspended from national team for 6 months
* White House: Sen. Kirk's 'drug dealer' comment 'outrageous'
* Prices up, choices down on Illinois health insurance market
* Chicago Board of Education OKs $5.4B budget amid protests
* Illinois 'Obamacare' health insurance rates up significantly
* Muggy weather in Illinois could yield bountiful harvest
* House explodes in central Illinois, sends couple into yard
* Police seeking vehicle connected to Illinois killings
* Police seeking vehicle connected to Illinois killings
* Prosecutor wants McCullough case perjury claim investigated

* Illinois 'Obamacare' health insurance rates up significantly
* Rauner's office warns teachers' pension change could be 'devastating'
* IDOT to analyze fairgrounds flood-control measures
* Rauner signs bill to punish trafficking guns into Illinois
* Rauner to sign bill to clamp down on gun trafficking
* Gov. Rauner signs bills to assist juvenile, other offenders
* Gov. Rauner signs package of criminal justice legislation
* Tax on feminine hygiene products repealed in Illinois
* Gay rights setback seen in Illinois Supreme Court ruling
* New Illinois law addresses financial exploitation of elderly

* FCB Chicago names Ogilvy's Liz Taylor chief creative officer
* Free 3-month digital trial of Crain's Chicago
* Chicago Board of Education OKs $5.4 billion budget
* MIT grads pick Chicago for hemp trading platform
* Here are the ways employers may be shortchanging your 401(k)


* Claire Blumenthal Miller dies; had bat mitzvah & wed in her 80s
* ERA leader Hendricks, Cubs rotation pit dominance vs. prudence
* CPS massive budget, borrowing pass despite giant ‘ifs’
* Man wounded in Chatham shooting
* Brown: Treasurer tackles insurance companies’ dirty little secret
* Bears pushing C Cornelius Edison to get his light-bulb moment
* Bears notes: Jay Cutler, Dowell Loggains didn’t panic after debut
* Fire: Man killed in fiery roll-over crash in Maywood
* Editorial: A chance for Guv to let voters have their say
* The Javy Dilemma: versatility value vs. Gold Glove D at one spot


* Who was the greatest Cubs catcher?
* Taxpayers hit again under Emanuel as CPS hikes property taxes
* About 12 injured after multiple tornadoes hit central Indiana
* Italy earthquake kills at least 159 as rescuers race to free survivors
* Lake County coroner appeals to Illinois Supreme Court to get on ballot
* Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly to allow 4 arrested players to play in opener
* Minnesota bridge collapse survivor accused of trying to join Islamic State after getting settlement
* Cubs offense on full display completing sweep of Padres with 6-3 victory
* Kirk accuses Duckworth of mocking stroke victims as Senate race heats up
* Hope Solo suspended from women's national soccer team for 6 months


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Esther Cepeda: One man's clutter could be another man's treasure
* Bernard Schoenburg: Illinois an 'outlier' in party appointments to legislative vacancies
* Scott Reeder: A case for tempering justice with mercy
* Illinois 'Obamacare' health insurance rates up significantly
* Eugene Robinson: Trump's 360-degree 'pivot'
* Rauner's office warns teachers' pension change could be 'devastating'
* IDOT to analyze fairgrounds flood-control measures
* Michael Gerson: Cheap populism helps no one
* E.J. Dionne: Trump's sour Virginia cocktail
* Michael LeRoy: Map case shows courts' flaws


* Chicago at the Virginia Theatre
* HS Golf: Centennial vs. Mahomet-Seymour 2016
* Coal executives: Industry has future, regulations stand in way
* Nichols will sit out until December
* Hill names Straughan starting QB for FAU
* Schnucks ban on solicitation at stores could affect Salvation Army bell ringing in Peoria and Pekin
* Schnucks' new policy could halt Salvation Army bell ringing at local stores
* Mercado on Fifth opens Friday in Moline's Floreciente neighborhood
* Illinois officials: Pension change could be 'devastating'
* PODCAST: SportsTalk 08-24-16


* A chance to honor Oldham by paying it forward
* Car enthusiasts check out Motors on Milwaukee
* Tolbert, Jones form quite a receiving package for Warren
* The Latest: Clinton calls AP report on donors 'absurd'
* Fernandez helps Marlins snap Royals' 9-game winning streak

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Police in Illinois to receive hundreds of ......

* White House: Sen. Kirk's 'Drug Dealer' Com......
* 2016 VOTE: Kirk fires back - WLS...
* Kirk accuses Duckworth of making fun of st......
* Tammy Duckworth slams Mark Kirk for racist......
* Kirk accuses Duckworth of mocking stroke v......

* EXTRA: “The Cell,” (2003-16)
* Representative Guzzardi responds to our posts about retired teachers who are too old to receive Medicare.
* University of Chicago: ” We hope all members of our community will take the time to look more deeply into the challenges and potential negative consequences of a union and participate in dialogue around these issues.”
* Cartoon of the Day - 8/23/16 Lochte
* Duckworth Slams Kirk During Economic Policy Talk, Outlines Fiscal Priorities
* Cartoon Of The Day
* Cartoon of the Day - 8/24/16 IL black unemployment rate
* Rauner Administration: Pension Adjustments Could Be 'Devastating'
* Are The Police Racist?
* IL Dept of Insurance warns of double digit health care increase in 2017


* Statement on Health Care Rate Filings
* Governor Opens Minority Entrepreneurship Program Applications
* Governor Rauner Signs Firearms Trafficking Bill to Help Protect Communities from Gun Violence
* Governor Rauner Takes Action towards Normalcy for Illinois Youth in Care
* State Announces September 1 Start of Low Income Energy Assistance Program Enrollment - LIHEAP, PIPP applications available for seniors, people with disabilities beginning September 1




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller