SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Schilling poll has him ahead by 13

Monday, Aug 20, 2012

* Schilling says he’s ahead by double digits

A new poll of likely voters in the 17th Congressional District puts U.S. Rep. Bobby Schilling ahead of his Democratic opponent, Cheri Bustos, by 13 points.

The internal poll by the Schilling campaign surveyed 400 people between Aug. 8 and 9 and found that 50 percent would vote for Rep. Schilling, R-Colona, and 37 percent would back Ms. Bustos, of East Moline.

Ms. Bustos has increased her support by 2 points from the last poll of the district conducted by the Schilling campaign in May. Rep. Schilling had the support of 51 percent of those polled in May to 35 percent for Ms. Bustos.

Terry Schilling, Rep. Schilling’s campaign manager, released the new poll on Friday and said he was pleased with the numbers. The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

Prompted by the release of the Schilling poll, the Bustos campaign released its own numbers from an internal poll taken in February. The poll found support of 44 percent for Rep. Schilling to 35 percent for Ms. Bustos. But when the 400 likely voters surveyed where given positive information about both candidates, Rep. Schilling’s lead narrowed to just four points. [See below for more info. The Bustos poll showed she actually led by four points after the positive pushes.]

* From the polling memo

Key Findings

1. Bobby Schilling continues to have a solid image in the district. Incumbent Bobby Schilling’s name ID is 84% and he has positive image ration of more than two to one (42% fav/20% unfav). These numbers are especially strong given how much of the district is new territory for Schilling.

2. Democrat challenger Cheri Bustos’ name ID is under 50%, and her image is polarized among those with an opinion of her. Cheri Bustos’s name ID sits at 49%, and just 29% of voters have an opinion of her (16% fav/13% unfav). Bustos’ image is essentially unchanged since our May survey, and she is running out of time to adequately define herself.

3. Bobby Schilling continues to lead by double digits on the Congressional ballot. Schilling leads Bustos by thirteen points on the ballot (50% Schilling/37% Bustos). Schilling’s support from Republicans is north of 90%, and he also has a significant advantage with Independent voters (50% Schilling/22% Bustos).

* Methodology

Public Opinion Strategies completed a survey of 400 likely voters in Illinois’ newly drawn 17Congressional District August 8-9, 2012. The survey has a margin of error of +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.

* The Schilling campaign also provided this polling roundup…

Schilling 44, Bustos 35 (February 2012) — The Bustos campaign released this internal poll—conducted in February—during the weekend of August 18 in response to the latest Public Opinion Strategies poll released by the Schilling campaign. Bustos was nominated in early March.

Schilling 51, Bustos 35 (May 2012) — In May, the Schilling campaign released this poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies. This was the first publicly released poll of the cycle.

Schilling 50, Bustos 37 (August 2012) — The Rock Island Argus and Moline Dispatch reported this new poll result on Sunday. Public Opinion Strategies also conducted this poll.


…Adding…
The Bustos campaign notes that their polling memo from May showed this

After hearing positive information on both candidates (slightly more on Bustos than Schilling), the Congressman’s lead evaporates and Bustos opens up a 45 – 41 percent lead. In other words, Bustos gains the lead before voters even hear about Schilling’s vulnerabilities.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


13 Comments
  1. - western illinois - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:29 am:

    What hope do the dems have against Scilling w/o a big union effort?
    Lets go poke sticks in their eye. This is how a party that represents a few pultocrats wins. Its smart


  2. - western illinois - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 9:54 am:

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/20/1121704/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Morning-Digest-NRCC-reserves-10-million-in-ad-time-in-12-districts?showAll=yes

    Sorry its long but the NRCC is spending here so he must show some vulnerbility. They may also be trying to lock this up. I dont think Braley and Loebsack are in trouble but Dogfighting advocate Steve King is …..Speaking of dogs MO Gov Nixon did not get teh Farm Bureau endoresement even though he pandered to them by weaking the Puppy Mill Referendum. So go stick it to the majority of the state to pander to people who will never endorse you or vote for you


  3. - Shemp - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:18 am:

    Schilling has shown he has a good learning curve. He did come in quite raw, but he’s very good in person. I’ve met more than a few politicians over the years, and Schilling comes off as genuine, passionate and interested as any of them. No less, never would have guessed in a hundred years he would have been the front-runner for re-election in the district Lane Evans held for so long.


  4. - trolls4jobs - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:23 am:

    That shows a lot of momentum. Bustos is clearly not connecting with voters.


  5. - PoliSciGeek - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:27 am:

    4.9% margin of error in 95 out of 100 cases.

    This poll barely meets the 95% confidence interval needed to be seen as legitamite. I would like to see a national poliing firm (not a campaign sponsored poll) done in the 17th. Surprised there hasn’t been one yet.


  6. - Aldyth - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:34 am:

    Schilling has the advantage of using his franking privelege to send out “newsletters” to his constituents that are thinly disguised campaign literature.


  7. - Inside Baseball - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:50 am:

    There’s no doubt that Bustos’ polls say pretty much the same thing, or they would’ve released them. Releasing a poll from February that shows Schilling with a nine point lead? Really? What did they think would come of that?


  8. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 10:53 am:

    Couldn’t Schilling releasing results like that hurt his fundraising. If he’s that far ahead, why give him money.

    Or is the idea to hurt Bustos’ fundraising?


  9. - BFro - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 12:12 pm:

    PolSciGeek- Schilling’s polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies, is a partisan firm, but is a very well-regarded, national firm. A 400 ppl sample in a congressional district is good sample and the industry standard for political polling.

    It’s pathetic that Bustos released a poll from February showing her down. How is that a good idea?


  10. - Ricodem - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 1:07 pm:

    Are people really surprised that a former public relations executive who made $380,000 per year is having a hard time connecting with voters in a very blue collar district?


  11. - Paul - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 1:45 pm:

    I live in the 17th District. I also took a phone poll about that time. It sounded an awful lot like a push poll. There were a lot of, would you change your mind if you knew, type of questions. There were many more of those questions asked about Bustos than Schilling. It was about a 10 to 2 ratio. A good number of the Bustos questions were about her alderman days, they tried to place every city council decision at her feet. I did not catch the name of the polling firm. When I noticed the woman kept pronouncing Bustos wrong, I asked where she was calling from, it was Texas. When I mentioned that the poll was sounding like push poll, the lady just laughed.


  12. - Paul - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 2:01 pm:

    Why didn’t Schilling release the questions asked?


  13. - wordslinger - Monday, Aug 20, 12 @ 3:00 pm:

    –Are people really surprised that a former public relations executive who made $380,000 per year is having a hard time connecting with voters in a very blue collar district?–

    Class warfare! lol.

    What’s next: Mitt, Paul and the Tea Party ride to the rescue to save Medicare? You think anyone buys that? Got no game.

    You’ll drop your tranny shifting from fifth to reverse like that.

    Are you the dude from the QC that said Aaron Schock was one of the most accomplished politicians and legislators in U.S. history?

    I seriously doubt Cheri has a problem connecting with anyone. You might want to call it over, but it ain’t over.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Afternoon updates
* Stop the satellite TV tax!
* *** UPDATED 1x *** Twitter suspends parody account @peoriamayor
* Lesson learned: Don't 'Leave'
* Fitch affirms Illinois GO Bond rating
* BGA: Rauner firm holds state contracts; political round-up
* Question of the Day
* CAPTION CONTEST!
* Morning Shorts
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * 'Beats Music' Updated With In-App Subscriptions, Offline Mode and More
        * Nike Fires Majority of FuelBand Team, Plans to Stop Making Wearables
        * iBeacons Are Ready for Showtime at the Tribeca Film Festival
        * New iPhone 6 fan render takes a stab at handset’s design
        * Facebook Updates 'Paper' App With Birthdays, Events, Photo Comments and More
        * Pelican and AT&T offer durable protection for your Galaxy S5
        * Possible iPad Air 2 photo leak suggests display changes

        * Nike has reportedly fired most of its FuelBand team and is getting out of the hardware business
        * iiyama MN5040-A10-VGB Mini Tower Desktop PC
        * Spire Ridge 6602 Mid-Tower PC Case
        * Maxell MPC-CLT6600 Mobile Battery Charger
        * EIZO ColorEdge CX241 24.1-Inch LCD Monitor
        * Gigabyte GV-R523D3-1GL Graphics Card
        * Verizon HTC One M8 Getting An Update with Bug Fixes and Enhacements

        * Rangers 12, White Sox 0: Martin Perez and Felipe Paulino, a study i...
        * Paulino struggles in opener against Rangers
        * Refreshed Abreu set to make adjustments
        * Beckham closer to return from oblique injury
        * Sale changes things up with pitch selection
        * Lindstrom talks the talk about walks
        * Lone Star Infirmary: A Texas Rangers Preview


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Medicaid paid $12M for Illinois dead..
        * Several major projects resume, planned for Sout.....
        * Ill. unemployment remains 3rd highest, despite .....
        * Illinois approved for No Child Left Behind waiver..
        * St. Louis Regional awarded $1.6M for taxiway im.....
        * Clock ticking for states to adopt health exchanges..
        * St. Charles massage parlor worker charged with .....
        * Investigator wants tougher legislative ethics laws..
        * Cook County issues 1,000th gay marriage license..
        * 860 school districts would see cuts if temporar.....


        * Boeing to give California workers $47M in back pay
        * APNewsBreak: Medicaid paid $12M for Illinois dead
        * Democrats: Illinois schools could face major cuts
        * Illinois approved for No Child Left Behind waiver
        * Cook County issues 1,000th gay marriage license
        * Investigator wants tougher legislative ethics laws
        * Illinois prisons to use costly hepatitis C drug
        * Clock ticking for states to adopt health exchanges
        * Federal lawsuit over western Md. wind farm ends
        * University: Ill. pension reform had costly mistake

        * 2015 tax rates still far from settled
        * Strip club tax brings in much less than expected
        * Quinn grants 43 clemency requests
        * Illinois approved for No Child Left Behind waiver
        * University: State pension reform had costly mistake
        * U of I officials seeking to prevent retirement rush
        * House bill urges schools to make digital emergency plans
        * Illinois Medicaid paying for dead clients
        * Rutherford's lawyers ask judge to dismiss sexual-harassment lawsuit
        * Chicago-only casino option to face opposition

        * Illinois Medicaid paying for dead clients
        * Medicaid paid $12 million for Illinois dead
        * Cook County issues 1,000th gay marriage license
        * Emanuel names task force to find site for Lucas museum
        * Illinois GOP lawmaker objects to 9-0 vote for Obama library


        * Rapper Big Glo laid to rest; father vows better life for children
        * $14 mil. awarded to woman who suffered stroke after taking medication
        * Illinois schools get waiver from No Child Left Behind progress mandate
        * Part of man’s ear bitten off by underage girlfriend’s brother
        * City sends bike cops into high-crime neighborhoods
        * Inspector general report alleges crimes both big and small
        * Feds arrest former mole in Rezko, Carothers cases
        * Truck crashes into Greater Grand Crossing store; five people injured


        * Woman who suffered stroke awarded $14 million in birth control case
        * 1 wounded in Northwest Side shooting
        * Lake County Jail inmate commits suicide
        * Past government mole arrested on federal charges
        * Mom: 15-year-old son killed in North Chicago
        * Boston Bound: Chicago couple determined to run and remember
        * Illinois legislative watchdog recommends greater transparency
        * Illinois legislative watchdog recommends greater transparency
        * Boy, 15, pulled from pond in Woodstock dies
        * City parents can take part in a "mini-shopping spree" for new playground equipment


        * Illinois Finally Gets 'No Child Left Behind' Waiver
        * U Of I: Illinois Pension Overhaul Had Costly Mistake
        * Fish fry dinners bring food, community to Catholics during Lent
        * Listen To State Week - April 18, 2014
        * Murray Center Advocates Win Appeals Decision
        * Employment Improves, But Illinois Still Lags U.S.
        * Nine Illinois lawmakers vote to fund Obama library - but only five members in attendance
        * WBEZ's Student Stories
        * Interview: John Tinker & The Landmark Case On Students' Right To Free Speech
        * State Legislation Hints At Marijuana Legalization


        * Quinn grants 43 clemency requests
        * Illinois approved for No Child Left Behind waiver
        * U of I officials seeking to prevent retirement rush
        * Illinois Medicaid paying for dead clients
        * Democrats: Illinois schools could face major cuts
        * State prisons to use costly drug for hepatitis C
        * University: State pension reform had costly mistake
        * DNR mining-oversight official fired
        * Clock ticking for states to adopt health exchanges
        * GOP lawmaker objects to 9-0 vote for Obama library


        * St. Louis Regional awarded $1.6M for taxiway improvement
        * Running to remember
        * Offense and defense both break off big plays in SIU spring game
        * Hospice to present mystery dinner
        * Blotter 4/18/14
        * Volleyball team visits Kenney
        * Jay, Roper deliver for baseball team
        * HS Track: Monticello Boys Invitational 2014
        * Memorial Scholarship offered
        * SportsTalk 4-18-14


        * The 10th District money race
        * Aurora Democrat calls out IHSA
        * Lawyers: Ill. hazing law vague, unconstitutional
        * Ill. House OKs lower-cost hunting bill for seniors
        * Quinn’s running mate takes new consulting job

        * Lipinski announces 2014 Congressional Art ...
        * Lipinski seeks artistic submissions - The ...
        * Lemont VFW honors Vietnam veterans - Subur...
        * Lipinski Votes to Protect the Paychecks of...
        * Meet the 8 House Dems who don't co-sponsor...
        * Jeff Vorva's Editor's Notebook: In this ca...
        * Rep. Lipinski Honors Vietnam Vets on House...
        * Southwest Airlines Adding 9 Non-Stop Daily...
        * Lipinski Announces Southwest will Start Fl...
        * Lipinski Thanks Voters for Support in Unco...

        * Loading Koch Industries Website Too Many T......
        * Maryland and DC among worst for food aller......
        * Cleveland State University to reestablish ......
        * Convicted political boss Al Sanchez runnin......
        * Candidates make last filings for local, st......

        * Illinois Lt. Gov. Simon opposes pension le......
        * Dillard Odd Man Out on Pension Deal Reaction...
        * Sen. Mark Kirk sides with Rauner on pensio......
        * Governor's race infighting threatens pensi......
        * SCHOONERS - Home of Everyone's Favorite Be......

        * Life-affirming messages challenge abortion business in Chicago
        * What Triggers a Protest of the NRA? [video]
        * Ben Joravsky tells us where the pension money went. And who spent it.
        * Governor Quinn. Veto Rahm’s pension bill.
        * GTCR is Rauner’s Bain Capital. So Squeezy gives him a state contract. Shaking up Springfield?
        * Chris Christie’s pension theft in New Jersey. Nation-wide pension theft needs a nation-wide response.
        * Sean Burns. Fair tax.
        * Peter Dowd. Rauner is no regular guy.
        * Gabriel Garcia Marquez. Farewell letter. Update.
        * Anonymous. “You just want more, more and more.”


        * Governor Pat Quinn Takes Clemency Action
        * Proposed Rules for Compassionate Use of Medical Cannabis Pilot Program Act Filed
        * Adopt-A-Highway Spring Cleanup Begins Today - Annual Event Honors Earth Day, Tackles Roadside Litter After Harsh Winter
        * Illinois Schools Win No Child Left Behind Waiver - Federal Government Approves Flexibility Needed for Successful Implementation of State Strategies to Improve Student Learning
        * Illinois filmmakers invited to enter state’s Shortcuts competition - 7th year for Illinois Film Office contest honoring local talent




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller