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Unprecedented GOP turnout
Wednesday, Mar 16, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller * There was an historic Republican turnout yesterday, and Democrats nearly matched their huge numbers from 2008. This may help explain the numerous ballot shortage troubles throughout the state. According to unofficial tallies, 1,377,341 voters cast ballots for Republican presidential candidates. That’s a 48 percent increase over the 933,454 people who voted for GOP presidential candidates in 2012, and a 53 percent increase over the 899,422 who voted Republican in 2008. Wow. * Meanwhile, 1,971,059 Democrats voted for president yesterday, well above the 652,717 who took part in the uncontested race in 2012, and just below the historic high of 2,038,614 in 2008. Not bad, but those Republican numbers cannot be ignored. * And in Chicago, 84,948 Republican ballots were cast, compared to 47,896 four years ago. That’s way up, but because of increased Democratic turnout this year, the GOP share was 11 percent, compared to 15 percent four years ago. Go back to 2008, however, and the total GOP share was 6.4 percent. So, despite a really good turnout year for Democrats this time around, the Republicans greatly improved both their numbers and (compared to ‘08) their percentages. * In suburban Cook, the Republicans cast 218,850 votes yesterday, for 32 percent of the total. That’s way down from their 49 percent in 2012, but way up from the 23 percent in 2008. * Also, Chicago clearly put Hillary Clinton over the top yesterday. She beat Bernie Sanders by 55,040 in the city, but her statewide margin was just 34,605. Sanders closed the gap hard, but using Rahm Emanuel as a whipping post ultimately didn’t work, despite all the gleeful chatter from the chattering class on Monday. * The New York Times has some fascinating maps to help you delve deeper. Click here. CNN’s exit polling is here and here. We’ll talk more about all that later.
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- highspeed - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:05 am:
How can there be a shortage of ballots? Dont they print for every registered voter? Guess i dont understand.
- From the 'Dale to HP - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:06 am:
All things considered, Chicago was probably a little closer that one might assume going in to yesterday. It was suburban Cook put where Hillary did better than, I at least, expected. Hillary won suburban Cook by 35,000 votes. If Bernie had won suburban Cook, he would have won Illinois.
- ILPundit - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:10 am:
Not too surprising with two, hotly contested presidential Primaries
- Thoughts Matter - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:10 am:
Highspeed - in a normal primary, we are lucky to get 20% of eligible voters to actually vote. No point in printing millions of ballots just to throw them away. They do need to respond better to high demand though.
- Allen D - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:11 am:
== How can there be a shortage of ballots? Dont they print for every registered voter? Guess i dont understand.==
There were a ton of first time voters that turned out on both sides and registered on the spot…
One of the counties down close to me, Madison County ran out of ballots, but they unlike most of the state, print their own rather than contract out so it was just a short wait for more ballots. More counties in the state with very heavy turnout should do the same, Madison County said they save thousands every election buy printing inhouse.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:11 am:
@ Highspeed,
No they don’t print one for each voter, usually the primaries are smaller turnout, why waste the cash on ballots that go unused.
Just like the bank doesn’t keep all of it’s depositors money on hand in the form of cash. It’s unlikely that everyone will show up at the same time.
But…when they do, things like last night happen.
- Johnny Pyle Driver - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:12 am:
Not sure what to make of these huge turnout numbers for Republicans all across the country.
It seems like Trump is the one pulling in the huge numbers of new voters. But it also seems like he’ll need even more new voters to even sniff a chance in the fall. Surely, lots of people came out to vote against Trump too, so perhaps that’s playing in to these large numbers as well. The numbers suggest he’s way underwater with Independents nationwide, but I can’t see Hillary energizing or attracting large numbers of them either.
To me, the fall will hinge on the apathy (or not) of the establishment republican voters. They don’t by any means need to turn out for Hillary, but they’ll need to stay home in pretty large numbers if we’re going to avoid Trump. Hard to gauge how many will gladly go to the polls simply to vote against Hillary
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:13 am:
The best explanation to date that I’ve heard is that Trump has brought in GOP voters who usually skip the primaries but vote in the general.
In other words, voters who generally wait to vote against the Democrats are motivated to vote now against GOP officeholders.
- illlinifan - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:13 am:
Thanks Rich for the data. My husband was asking about this very information this morning. You must have heard him. You have saved me a lot of time.
- Honeybear - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:15 am:
What about roughnecks? That’s not bad. The roughneck vote.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:18 am:
Trump is the reason.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:19 am:
A chance to vote against Rauners well paid puppets motivated some voters like myself to get out
- Ghost - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:20 am:
Welcome to 1932……
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:28 am:
–And in Chicago, 84,948 Republican ballots were cast,–
Once again, a lesson for those who analyze election results by county.
Only two counties — DuPage and Lake — cast more GOP ballots than the city of Chicago.
Cook cast about 300K GOP ballots, more than double than DuPage, the next highest.
Yet my GOP ballot in Cook was virtually free of candidates except for president and delegates. No one even bothered to file.
Rather than having Dan Proft squander millions on stiffs like Dunkin and Benton, perhaps the leader of the state GOP might consider some party building where the voters are.
- Not convinced - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:35 am:
Turnout has been up in most of the primaries and caucuses so far, so there was no reason to think it would not be up in Illinois as well. I know a bunch of Democrats like me who took Republican ballots to vote against Rauner-backed candidates.
So I still don’t see an excuse for 10 precincts in Sangamon County to run out of ballots. That’s just incompetence.
- Tinsel Town - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:38 am:
Despite Trump and the huge R turn out, Mr. R’s crew seems to have gotten zip, zero, nada, and empty plate despite the money R spent.
Should the Illinois R party drop R from their activities.
- Sammy1952 - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:39 am:
I normally pull a “D” ballot but pulled a “R” ballot this time because I wanted to weigh-in on the presidential and state rep. (McCann) races. I know several other voters who did the same thing. Come the General Election, things will be different, especially if Trump gets the nomination. The point is that Hillary would have done better and the Republicans true turnout isn’t as high as the numbers appear because of the voters who crossed party lines. You saw the same pattern in Michigan.
- Person 8 - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:44 am:
Last week I printed both ballots. The Dem ballot had nothing on it except the top of the ticket and maybe 1 or 2 county races.
Once we realized we would just cancel each other out on the Dem ballot, we decided to pull R ballots and vote together. I know a lot of other people in my neighborhood did the same (didn’t see the point in pulling a D ticket within no one running)
This is probably why the 26 senate is so close.
- Anon - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:44 am:
I wonder how many of those Republican voters were Democrats pulling ballots to vote against Rauner supported candidates?
- Flunky McTaggert - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:52 am:
It’s all about the Trump, about the Trump, about the Trump…
1. Voter excitement over the opportunity - for the first time in their life - for blue collar Republicans to vote on their economic interests and anxieties and against the republican establsihment.
2. Trump Democrats
3. Democrats engaging in strategic voting against Trump.
- hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:57 am:
Interesting seeing Hillary’s wins in Cook, Lake, the river counties and Decatur.
Places with strong Dem establishment went Hillary but the base Dem voter less tethered to an established party everywhere else went Bernie. Thought Bernie might get Decatur given his stance on trade but suppose those folks went Trump. Cruz’s strength in central illinois is interesting. Just a different breed of Republican Party there than up north or down south I guess?
- allknowingmasterofracoondom - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 9:57 am:
=This is probably why the 26 senate is so close.=
But if that were the case in any significant numbers of crossovers, why would a uber conservative pro-life lobbyist win with such big numbers?
- Team Sleep - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:03 am:
Friday - the other factor could also be that Ted Cruz, Heidi Cruz and Rafael Cruz all campaigned in the area during the last week or so. That makes a difference. Trump appeared in Springfield too early.
- walker - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:23 am:
Suburban Cook is the arena where big races can be decided. Heavy in money and voters, with a lot of potential switchers. Undervalued by state Dems, and foolishly ignored by GOP. Everybody just assumes.
- Dr X - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:25 am:
Durn Federalism. Where was all that fed money after 2000 for voting machines?
- Thoughts Matter - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:29 am:
Friday- Cruz may have gotten votes from other people like me. I wanted to vote Kasich, but felt that would be a throw away vote. I voted Cruz to counteract a Trump voter.
- @MisterJayEm - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:53 am:
“Don’t they print for every registered voter?”
In addition to the explanations offered above, citizens of Illinois were allowed to register to vote at their polling places yesterday. There were likely thousands more registered voters in Illinois when the polls closed than there were when they opened.
– MrJM
- highspeed - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 11:09 am:
I appreciate the comments, but given the climate of the state, and the amount of money they waste everyday,I didnt think it would be too hard to do.
I live in Vermilion County and we ran out.
- Ghost - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 11:28 am:
I wonder if the GOP is upset anout the lack of strong voter ID laws, could have helped to scale back their turnout…..
- Thoughts Matter - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 11:30 am:
Ballots are printed at the County Clerk level and are paid for at that level also. Not a state expense.
- South Central - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 3:44 pm:
@hisgirlfriday: why the Cruz vote in the central part of the state? I believe it’s because he is perceived as a better Christian than the others. (not my view). I live in a very Catholic county, and the most Catholic precincts went 2 or 3 to 1 for Cruz. He is also a tea party fave here.
- JakeCP - Wednesday, Mar 16, 16 @ 10:24 pm:
Do we know how many people registered to vote in the last few months leading up to the election? I’d be curious to know how many first time voters picked a R Ballot.
- Jerry - Thursday, Mar 17, 16 @ 8:49 am:
Absolutely no excuse to ever run out of ballots. You know how many people are registered. This isn’t hard.