D
I predict Obama takes it. I have said all along Obama’s strenght is his ability to pull in independents and republicans, and Clintons weakness is her inability to draw from anywhere but the Democratic base. Many of the recent polls show obama brings not only large number of independents, but also a few republicans out to the caucas. This is his ability to win the national and get things done once he is in the job.
R
McCain will turn an upset of Huckabee. The Huckabee and Romney back and forth is and will continue to drive people over to McCain where his name recongnition and lack of appearance of negative campaigning will give him the edge.
Obama-Big. I witnessed 10 repubs at the rally in Sioux City yesterday who will register as a D and caucus for Barack Thursday. Over 800 attended, overflow crowd. Obama is HOT out here. Edwards 2nd. Repubs will be Huckabee, Romney.
O’ crystal ball of snow-covered rural caucus meetings…..
D
Clinton
Edwards
Obama
R
McCain
Romney
Huckabee
As others are noting, several among the second tier candidates are polling under the 15% caucus threshold. Their supporters’ “second choices” become important and the candidates have a chance to become kingmakers… I’ve read enough stories on these three campaigns’ GOTV efforts to lead me to think they’re about equal in that regard, so it will come down to second choicers.
I see more of those under-the-threshold candidates instructing their caucus goers to lean Clinton (Richardson’s relatively strong — but not strong enough — 4th place, Biden, etc) than either Obama or Edwards.
Kucinich has asked his supporters to go to Obama (just as he did for Edwards in 2004), but DK has even less support now than four years ago. I don’t have a good sense of where Dodd would send his folks, though perhaps Edwards currently lines up more with his platforms.
That said (here’s the caveat), I’ve seen polling suggesting Edwards is first among “second choices” (always a bridesmaid…) though those numbers are stale.
…As for the R’s, it comes down to money and establishment support. Romney has the money to keep his organization and GOTV strong, even as his support has wained (things always tighten right before an election/caucus) but the rather harsh editorials coming out against him have got to hurt.
McCain is getting institutional/establishment support as evidenced by newspaper endorsements in his favor and he may just bubble to the top.
Huckabee just doesn’t seem to have a large enough coalition, though the groups under his wing are certainly dedicated.
Either way, I still think whoever wins Iowa wins their party’s nomination.
Explanation first. I see the caucuses as kind of like dating in high school and then college. We are first attracted to that mysterious, hot girl/guy, but in the end, we go with the girl/guy that mom would like and we can see ourselves growing old with. I think in the run-up to the nomination, voters flirt with the “interesting” candidate, but in the end select someone that they will feel most comfortable with and they think will have the best chance of representing their party.
R - Romney, Huckabee, McCain
People have been all over the board with the candidates, and lately have been flirting with Huckabee. I think they like a lot of the things that Huckabee says, especially on the social issues. However, when the come to pull that lever, they will go with Romney because they think he’s more electable.
D - Clinton, Obama, Richardson
Obama has been the “rockstar”. He is charismatic and energetic, and very likeable. However, he has almost no experience. Come on, the only reason that he was pulled into the race, is that he gave the best, most stirring speech at the DNC Convention 3.5 years ago. We select a president based on one speech? Hillary, although fairly unlikeable, is the “safe candidate”.
All it takes between the #1 & 2 for both races is a couple of percentage points. People at the last minute going for safe will make up those few percentage points.
This finish roughly approximates the Des Moines Register poll.
Republicans
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain
4. Paul
I figure Ron Paul’s supporters are the least likely to throw their support to a second choice, and his polling numbers in the state are now stronger than Giuliani’s.
— Obama has a strong showing on the entrance polls, but all of Dodd’s, Biden’s, and Richardson’s caucus-goers are instructed to go into the Clinton corner if their candidate doesn’t meet the threshold. Thus putting Clinton in the lead.
R
Huckabee
Romney
McCain
— Huckabee has a strong showing, but all the infighting among the Republican front-runners has accomplished 2 things: 1) To increase attention and draw republicans back to this contest who thought about caucusing for Obama; 2) To confuse republican regulars, who just want to go back to an old standard (McCain).
The result? McCain with an expectations-beating, strong 3rd place finish.
- Napoleon has left the building - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:44 am:
Obama will not only win, but the margin will be surprisingly large.
Huckabee wins for the Republicans, but the only other state he will take is Arkansas.
it is a touch of Irony that when Bill CLinton ran, his opponent discussed his complete lack of exp as the reason he should be defeated. We know how well the lack of exp angle worked for Bush. So the Clintons have dusted of the Bush losing strategy of targeting exp….good example of Hillaries decision making
The Coffee Bean Caucas had Obama ahead with more then double the votes of Clinton…One Bean One Vote.
The fact that Edwards is holding steady with a slight finishing push. Clinton will steal some of Obama’s votes but not enough to best Edward’s.
Republicans
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain
4. Paul
I think Romney is on the upswing and Huckabee did himself a lot of damage on both the ignorance on Pakistan and his attempt to run negative which was pulled at the last minute. Paul is moving up and will be a strong candidate when he puts his money to work to present his story.
R - Huckabee, Romney, McCain
Three words: Chuck Norris Power.
D - Clinton, Edwards, Obama
I think Edwards will have a stunning upset. Obama gets third because college students tend to be lazy and not as politically active beyond joining Facebook groups. Although, I’d look forward to the day when college students can actually be relied upon to vote. Close margins in this race though.
Winners: The media circus and the Iowa economy.
Losers: American voters.
Iowa blows.
Howard Dean was right when he sat for Canadian television and explained Iowa’s shortcomings. Then Dean got stupid and ran in the state he knew was a waste of campaign resources and LOST.
Clinton should have avoided Iowa. Same with Romney. If enough real canidates refuse to play caucus games Iowa will be once again an electoral backwater where it belongs.
I predict that no one wins tomorrow. Both parties will show a three-way tie. Pundits will announce that NO ONE won and then scramble to New Hampshire where voters really vote.
I think the undecideds will ultimately break for the familiar names. Huckabee finishing third is probably wishful thinking, but if the Iowa caucus goers can’t see through the house of cards that is the Huckabee campaign, then we really are giving them too much credit.
- North of I-80 - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 12:40 pm:
Dem:
1 Obama
2 Edwards
3 Clinton
Obama is articulate, Not George Bush and Not Clinton. Edwards is gaining momentum
Rep:
1 Romney
2 Huckabee
3 Thompson
Huckabee fading as his record comes out + his recent missteps; Thompson is only conservative in the top 4, the only honest one, not negative & not flip/flopping.
**Howard Dean was right when he sat for Canadian television and explained Iowa’s shortcomings. Then Dean got stupid and ran in the state he knew was a waste of campaign resources and LOST.**
So, is that your way of saying that were it not for the vetting by this “electoral backwater” that Dean would have been the Democratic nominee/president? I would think you would be thanking the state.
I will hold back from singing the merits of the Iowa caucus. As a native Iowan, it is hard for me to remain objective on the topic. That being said, I spent the holidays in Iowa in my hometown of 10,000 and saw Richardson, Obama and Clinton in the span of 24 hours. It is a great place to be if you are a political junkie.
Now predictions:
D: Obama, Edwards, Clinton
While Obama may have captured the hearts of college students, he has also captured the votes of many native Iowans. The folks I talked to just can’t get behind more years of Clinton. Also, Obama should consider himself lucky that the media has not talked much about the neighbor state effect. I think it is really going to help him tomorrow.
R: Huckabee, Romney, McCain
I feel much less confident predicting for the Republicans, but folks seem to have little trust of Romney. While Iowans really look at the substance of plans/policies that the candidates are putting out, at the end of the day, like most of us, they go with their gut, and their gut trusts Huckabee. Also, Iowans cannot help but laugh when talking about Giuliani’s attempts at relating to them. Any man that claims he understands Iowa because Staten Island was under his watch is not going to get far. He was wise to put very few resources into Iowa.
- lake county democrat - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 1:14 pm:
Dems:
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Though many Iowans have been bamboozled into thinking the modern-day Jimmy Carter is the modern-day JFK (minus Bay of Pigs, Cuban missle crisis, dithering on civil rights, etc.), I won’t believe the college/crossover coalition will beat the grannies in turnout until I see it. Poysonally I’d vote Edwards (as much as a vote for a deadlocked convention as for his populism) and think Biden would make the best President of the lot of them.
GOP:
Huckabee
McCain
Paul
I’m winging it on this one — Romney is just so rudderless that I can’t see well-centered midwesterners going for him. The Paul folks, for better or worse, are possessed!
The whole question on the D side is whether Obama’s approach of getting out non-core-D groups works. Is he enough of a rock star, and do his people have wll the ground-war niceties tied up? If so, he wins. Otherwise, Clinton wins in an old-fashioned way. If I have to choose, I choose Obama, becasue of hsi speaking skills. Hillary may say the words people want to hear, but Obama could give a speech on Algebra and get people fired up.
On the other side of the aisle, Huck’s peaked. Iowa may be religious, but it’s not the snake-handling hothouse that, say, Alabama is. Romney wins, but it’s a very close three-way finish with him, Huck , and McCain.
D- Edwards, Obama, and Clinton, with Richardson ending his campaign on Monday and endorsing Clinton (and hoping for a VP nod)
R- McCain, Huckabee, Romney, and Thompson, in a close one with all 4 claiming victory by finishing where they did and only McCain believing it.
R: Huckabee, McCain, Rudy & Mitt (neither with impressive results)
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Undecided come out 2nd or 3rd. I think the Republicans will end up with a brokered convention.
I come from a caucus state. It is a process that allows everyone to understand for whom they are voting to be delegates at the national convention. That’s not an option voters have in primary states. (When you vote in the IL primary exactly who is going to Denver or Minneapolis to represent you? And do you Republican voters understand that your delegates are really free agents; the primary vote is only ‘advisory’.)
Also, the concept of “instructing” voters on their second choice is ludicrous. It is one thing for a candidate to encourage his supporters but quite another for a campaign worker to tell people who their second choice should be. It is likely that only eligible voters are allowed in the caucus and neighbors are certainly not going to ‘instruct’ one another although there will be a lot of cajoling.
Not being in Iowa right now I don’t know what the talk on the street is but surely the kids of draft age must be pondering that particular governmental program and actively supporting the candidate that they think is least likely to call for military expansion. (I know parents of draft-age kids who continue worry about the draft.) Remember that 17-year-olds can caucus as long as they will be voting age by November.
D: Edwards wins by being the second choice of the Biden, Richardson, Dodd and Dennis K voters. If the second-tier supporters were susceptible to the lure of Hilary or Obama they would have moved to them already.
R: The anti-Enlightenment vote will carry the day for the Huckster. Republicans bewildered and scared by the irrationality of their own party’s standard-bearers will put McCain into the number two slot.
In 1992, Bill Clinton DID avoid Iowa. And a day after a mediocre showing in the Dem caucus, Tom Harkin withdrew.
As a native Iowan, I agree that Iowa is overrated. I reveled in it but I don’t get it. It’s all about early momentum. Iowa gets a huge economic boost from it. (Chris Dodd bought a house not far from my parents.)
I predict that the top three in each party (Clinton-Edwards-Obama and Guiliani-Huckabee-Romney) finish within 10 pct. point of each other. (Alphabetical, not my predicted order of finish). Still, Romney’s numbers will be disappointing overall. Guiliani, the moderate who did not campaign there, will surprise with a top-3 finish.
Thanks to an increase in first-time caucus participants, along with crossover Republicans and Independents, Barack Obama is positioned to take his first step toward the Democratic nomination by winning Iowa. Edwards and Clinton will end up close behind.
On the GOP side, Huckabee edges out Romney, and McCain is a distant third.
(BTW, I saw Rich Miller Sr.’s majestic Obama Cadillac at this morning’s Obama rally in Davenport.)
Montrose (and others)… Clinton is getting a bunch of support from Illinois also. She was born here and Bill cultivated quite a network during his 8 years in office.
Also, just ask Pres. Dick Gephardt how well the neighbor-state effect worked for him. It only carries a candidate so far (being able to supply “snow shovelers and babysitters” on caucus night doesn’t add up to that many percentage points).
NOBODY shows up; no winners, no losers. And, by the way, why should ANYBODY care what a handful of folks in Iowa think? Ain’t we got no brains to decide for ou’selves?
Democrat, Obama by at least 10 points. Has the best ground organization ever seen in Iowa. It also helps when the organization is solid and the candidate is solid. A lethal combination. Oh, they have plenty of money too.
Romney, again organization and some last-minute blunders by that other former governor of Arkansas. But, but, McCain will not come in first but will be called the surprise winner of the Republican side because of his “exceeding expectations” crap that everyone loves so much.
I’m pro-Obama, so I frankly don’t care who he faces in the general, he’ll beat them all. John Presta.
Good one, GoBearss. But with my Iowa roots I like to think we’re smarter than that.
OK, on to the prediction.
For the Dems — Basically a three way tie. It won’t clarify a thing. Hillary gets some second choice votes. Edwards has momentum and contacts from four years ago but is in a bind on second choice votes. Obama has a monster organization but unfortunately for him this caucus unlike previous ones is outside the college term.
Republicans. Huck and Romney tie, and the result effectively finishes Huckabee. McCain is close enough to escape to NH intact.
Watch the interplay of independents in NH. How McCain and Obama play the expectations game is hugely important, because their voting bases overlap in this key group of disaffected voters. Obama’s recent framing of some of his policies in the blather of conservative talking points suggest he’s well aware of this fact.
The polling shows Obama and Clinton neck & neck, they both have lots of money, and a solid GOTV infrastructure. But I think supporters of the other Dem candidates are going to break strong for Obama. Biden and Richardson don’t have the sort of organizational strength to command their supporters to opt for anyone in particular. And if someone is supporting one of them I think it has to be a sign of at least some dissatisfaction with Clinton as a candidate and early presumptive nominee. While Edwards should also get a generous break from the lower-polling Dem candidates, I don’t think it’ll be enough to compensate for his relative lack of monetary and GOTV strength, and push him above Clinton.
On another note with Obama. I lived in Iowa for two years of graduate school, and somehow all the campaigns have my cell-phone number and think I’m an Iowa resident. I’ve gotten plenty of automated messages from the Pubs and Dems the last several weeks, but only one actual live person who was intent on engaging me and having a real conversation. That was from the Obama campaign.
R - Romney, Huckabee, ???
Nothing beats old fashioned millions of dollars and incredible GOTV apparatus. That’s what Romney has and it’ll beat any recent surge by Huckabee, even if his star is still rising. That said, there’s no one else even close to Huckabee in Iowa so he’ll definitely take a strong second aided by his recent jump in recognition. I think someone else is bound to take over 15%, but I have no idea who.
I’m curious where this “Obama has the greatest organization ever seen” meme is coming from, b/c while Obama’s ground game is strong, Edwards’ organization is what’s kept him going despite the money difference, and turned IA from a two-person to a three-person race.
That said, Obama does have strong native support, and if all the IL college kids come back to campus to caucus and the first timers show up, Obama could win a close one. However, under the system the delegate numbers are decided in advance based on previous caucus turnout, so even if 300 people show up at some hall in Iowa City or Grinnell, if only 50 people showed up in 04, they get delegates based on that. And even if one candidate has a lot of support in that hall, if anyone else is viable they could still pick up a delegate or two. If HRC or Edwards pull big in established areas, or are strong in rural areas where Obama might not be viable, they’ll pick up delegates and that could make up for the newbie factor elsewhere.
Since in 04 the last Zogby poll called it almost exactly right, I’m going w/ that: Obama, Edwards, Clinton all w/in about 2 pts of each other. Today’s poll is essentially a three-way tie w/ the margin of error, and factoring in 2nd choices of supporters of the candidates who won’t be viable didn’t change anything (and Kucinich was polling a lot better (4%) in 04 than he is now (about 1-2), so Obama can’t really count on a big uptick from his folks). If that is the finish, it’ll be interesting to see how that gets spun.
On the GOP side, their system isn’t as convuluted as the Dems (it’s basically a straw poll) but based on the current polling I’d guess Huck, Mittster, maybe McCain edging Thompson for third.
For the Dems - Obama, Clinton, Edwards. Nobody really knows, but I believe independents could be up in arms this year and turn out in unexpected numbers. Turnout’s been up the past couple of national cycles. And Obama is the change candidate for independents.
Republicans - Huckabee, Romney, Giuliani. Getting shellacked by the national news media isn’t exactly the kiss of death in a Republican primary.
Betting with my heart, if not also my head, I picked Obama-Edwards-Clinton-Richardson. I figure Hillary is no one’s second choice, and Edwards is almost everyone’s number 2. Obama is counting on support from new caucus voters, a very risky proposition. He’s in position to win and has the team and infrastructure to pull it off.
On the GOP side, I’d guess Romney, Huckabee, McCain, Giuliani. I’m a Democrat, so this isn’t well informed, but Iowa doesn’t strike me as fervently conservative enough to rally around Huckabee, and so I think Huckabee has already peaked. Romney is the safe vote for Iowa caucus goers. McCain finally weathered the immigration storm and now looks like the strongest possible nominee in my estimation, but he has a long way to go. Is Fred Thompson still in the race? How will the Ron Paul phenomenon play itself out?
Weird wacky stuff. An actual contested election. Sort of.
- steve schnorf - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 10:26 pm:
I predict the Iowa results wil be meaningless, except to those who die from finishing in single digits, and not even all of them will die.
- prairiestatedem - Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 1:01 am:
Took a trip across the river to support our native son for the presidency….The previous posters tend to focus on the college students when discussing obama…well Im here to tell all my fellow Illinoisans …it goes way beyond that…PSD’s predicition is:
Obama
Edwards (Not too far behind at second)
Hillary (Her abrassive style and false concern for the commoners really shone through in the hawkeye state)
Repubs…
Hard to say but I think Huckabee will stay on top…tended to have good momentum in closing arguments.
Romney 2nd
McCain 3rd ( The vets will make an appearance to slide John into 3rd)
PS… I’m hoping I’m wrong on my D prediction — tho’ only because I’m supporting Obama for the primary. Once that’s done I’d be happy to go with any of the candidates in the general.
[…] January 4, 2008 in Democrats, Presidential Campaign 2008, Republicans by robnesvacil My contrarian predictions proved woefully inaccurate. That’s the fun of reading your fake tea leaves, right? […]
- GoBearsss - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:03 am:
Blagojevich wins in a stunning upset.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:05 am:
LOL. OK, please stick to the question. Thanks.
- Mr. Cub - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:08 am:
D
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
R
Huckabee
Romney
McCain
College kids wimp out in the cold
- SouthernILRepub - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:11 am:
Obama, Edwards, Clinton, Richardson, Gravel
Romney, McCain, Huckabee, Thompson, Paul
- Ghost - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:21 am:
D
I predict Obama takes it. I have said all along Obama’s strenght is his ability to pull in independents and republicans, and Clintons weakness is her inability to draw from anywhere but the Democratic base. Many of the recent polls show obama brings not only large number of independents, but also a few republicans out to the caucas. This is his ability to win the national and get things done once he is in the job.
R
McCain will turn an upset of Huckabee. The Huckabee and Romney back and forth is and will continue to drive people over to McCain where his name recongnition and lack of appearance of negative campaigning will give him the edge.
- Eddy - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:25 am:
Obama-Big. I witnessed 10 repubs at the rally in Sioux City yesterday who will register as a D and caucus for Barack Thursday. Over 800 attended, overflow crowd. Obama is HOT out here. Edwards 2nd. Repubs will be Huckabee, Romney.
- Rob_N - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:30 am:
O’ crystal ball of snow-covered rural caucus meetings…..
D
Clinton
Edwards
Obama
R
McCain
Romney
Huckabee
As others are noting, several among the second tier candidates are polling under the 15% caucus threshold. Their supporters’ “second choices” become important and the candidates have a chance to become kingmakers… I’ve read enough stories on these three campaigns’ GOTV efforts to lead me to think they’re about equal in that regard, so it will come down to second choicers.
I see more of those under-the-threshold candidates instructing their caucus goers to lean Clinton (Richardson’s relatively strong — but not strong enough — 4th place, Biden, etc) than either Obama or Edwards.
Kucinich has asked his supporters to go to Obama (just as he did for Edwards in 2004), but DK has even less support now than four years ago. I don’t have a good sense of where Dodd would send his folks, though perhaps Edwards currently lines up more with his platforms.
That said (here’s the caveat), I’ve seen polling suggesting Edwards is first among “second choices” (always a bridesmaid…) though those numbers are stale.
…As for the R’s, it comes down to money and establishment support. Romney has the money to keep his organization and GOTV strong, even as his support has wained (things always tighten right before an election/caucus) but the rather harsh editorials coming out against him have got to hurt.
McCain is getting institutional/establishment support as evidenced by newspaper endorsements in his favor and he may just bubble to the top.
Huckabee just doesn’t seem to have a large enough coalition, though the groups under his wing are certainly dedicated.
Either way, I still think whoever wins Iowa wins their party’s nomination.
- Trafficmatt - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:38 am:
Explanation first. I see the caucuses as kind of like dating in high school and then college. We are first attracted to that mysterious, hot girl/guy, but in the end, we go with the girl/guy that mom would like and we can see ourselves growing old with. I think in the run-up to the nomination, voters flirt with the “interesting” candidate, but in the end select someone that they will feel most comfortable with and they think will have the best chance of representing their party.
R - Romney, Huckabee, McCain
People have been all over the board with the candidates, and lately have been flirting with Huckabee. I think they like a lot of the things that Huckabee says, especially on the social issues. However, when the come to pull that lever, they will go with Romney because they think he’s more electable.
D - Clinton, Obama, Richardson
Obama has been the “rockstar”. He is charismatic and energetic, and very likeable. However, he has almost no experience. Come on, the only reason that he was pulled into the race, is that he gave the best, most stirring speech at the DNC Convention 3.5 years ago. We select a president based on one speech? Hillary, although fairly unlikeable, is the “safe candidate”.
All it takes between the #1 & 2 for both races is a couple of percentage points. People at the last minute going for safe will make up those few percentage points.
- Boone Logan Square - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:39 am:
Democrats
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Biden
This finish roughly approximates the Des Moines Register poll.
Republicans
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain
4. Paul
I figure Ron Paul’s supporters are the least likely to throw their support to a second choice, and his polling numbers in the state are now stronger than Giuliani’s.
- Bill Baar - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:39 am:
Note the College kids are home for the holidays… so they will not be out in the force they could be…
- GoBearsss - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:40 am:
D
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
— Obama has a strong showing on the entrance polls, but all of Dodd’s, Biden’s, and Richardson’s caucus-goers are instructed to go into the Clinton corner if their candidate doesn’t meet the threshold. Thus putting Clinton in the lead.
R
Huckabee
Romney
McCain
— Huckabee has a strong showing, but all the infighting among the Republican front-runners has accomplished 2 things: 1) To increase attention and draw republicans back to this contest who thought about caucusing for Obama; 2) To confuse republican regulars, who just want to go back to an old standard (McCain).
The result? McCain with an expectations-beating, strong 3rd place finish.
- Napoleon has left the building - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:44 am:
Obama will not only win, but the margin will be surprisingly large.
Huckabee wins for the Republicans, but the only other state he will take is Arkansas.
- Ghost - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:44 am:
it is a touch of Irony that when Bill CLinton ran, his opponent discussed his complete lack of exp as the reason he should be defeated. We know how well the lack of exp angle worked for Bush. So the Clintons have dusted of the Bush losing strategy of targeting exp….good example of Hillaries decision making
The Coffee Bean Caucas had Obama ahead with more then double the votes of Clinton…One Bean One Vote.
- Justice - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:51 am:
Democrats
1. Edwards
2. Obama
4. Clinton
The fact that Edwards is holding steady with a slight finishing push. Clinton will steal some of Obama’s votes but not enough to best Edward’s.
Republicans
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain
4. Paul
I think Romney is on the upswing and Huckabee did himself a lot of damage on both the ignorance on Pakistan and his attempt to run negative which was pulled at the last minute. Paul is moving up and will be a strong candidate when he puts his money to work to present his story.
- Kiyoshi Martinez - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:51 am:
R - Huckabee, Romney, McCain
Three words: Chuck Norris Power.
D - Clinton, Edwards, Obama
I think Edwards will have a stunning upset. Obama gets third because college students tend to be lazy and not as politically active beyond joining Facebook groups. Although, I’d look forward to the day when college students can actually be relied upon to vote. Close margins in this race though.
- Skeeter - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:52 am:
D: Edwards, Clinton, Obama
Edwards may have peaked a bit early. People are looking for an alternative to Sen. Clinton, and in Iowa, they like Edwards.
R: Pure guesswork. I’m going with Rommey, Huckabee, and McCain, with it considered a McCain victory since he spent so little time there.
- VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 11:55 am:
Winners: The media circus and the Iowa economy.
Losers: American voters.
Iowa blows.
Howard Dean was right when he sat for Canadian television and explained Iowa’s shortcomings. Then Dean got stupid and ran in the state he knew was a waste of campaign resources and LOST.
Clinton should have avoided Iowa. Same with Romney. If enough real canidates refuse to play caucus games Iowa will be once again an electoral backwater where it belongs.
I predict that no one wins tomorrow. Both parties will show a three-way tie. Pundits will announce that NO ONE won and then scramble to New Hampshire where voters really vote.
- M.V. - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 12:29 pm:
My prediction:
D-
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
R-
McCain
Romney
Huckabee
I think the undecideds will ultimately break for the familiar names. Huckabee finishing third is probably wishful thinking, but if the Iowa caucus goers can’t see through the house of cards that is the Huckabee campaign, then we really are giving them too much credit.
- North of I-80 - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 12:40 pm:
Dem:
1 Obama
2 Edwards
3 Clinton
Obama is articulate, Not George Bush and Not Clinton. Edwards is gaining momentum
Rep:
1 Romney
2 Huckabee
3 Thompson
Huckabee fading as his record comes out + his recent missteps; Thompson is only conservative in the top 4, the only honest one, not negative & not flip/flopping.
What do we win if correct?
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 12:43 pm:
===What do we win if correct?===
Nothing.
- kane county doc - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 12:50 pm:
GOP- Huck, Mitt and who cares about 3rd?
Dems- Edwards, Obama and Clinton.
Richardson finishes with less than 5% and steps out
- Ghost - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 12:52 pm:
What no shirt as a Prize:
“I predicted the outcome of the Iowa Caucus on THE Capital Fax Blog, and for that, and $20, all I got was this lousy t-shirt.”
- montrose - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 1:04 pm:
**Howard Dean was right when he sat for Canadian television and explained Iowa’s shortcomings. Then Dean got stupid and ran in the state he knew was a waste of campaign resources and LOST.**
So, is that your way of saying that were it not for the vetting by this “electoral backwater” that Dean would have been the Democratic nominee/president? I would think you would be thanking the state.
I will hold back from singing the merits of the Iowa caucus. As a native Iowan, it is hard for me to remain objective on the topic. That being said, I spent the holidays in Iowa in my hometown of 10,000 and saw Richardson, Obama and Clinton in the span of 24 hours. It is a great place to be if you are a political junkie.
Now predictions:
D: Obama, Edwards, Clinton
While Obama may have captured the hearts of college students, he has also captured the votes of many native Iowans. The folks I talked to just can’t get behind more years of Clinton. Also, Obama should consider himself lucky that the media has not talked much about the neighbor state effect. I think it is really going to help him tomorrow.
R: Huckabee, Romney, McCain
I feel much less confident predicting for the Republicans, but folks seem to have little trust of Romney. While Iowans really look at the substance of plans/policies that the candidates are putting out, at the end of the day, like most of us, they go with their gut, and their gut trusts Huckabee. Also, Iowans cannot help but laugh when talking about Giuliani’s attempts at relating to them. Any man that claims he understands Iowa because Staten Island was under his watch is not going to get far. He was wise to put very few resources into Iowa.
- lake county democrat - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 1:14 pm:
Dems:
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Though many Iowans have been bamboozled into thinking the modern-day Jimmy Carter is the modern-day JFK (minus Bay of Pigs, Cuban missle crisis, dithering on civil rights, etc.), I won’t believe the college/crossover coalition will beat the grannies in turnout until I see it. Poysonally I’d vote Edwards (as much as a vote for a deadlocked convention as for his populism) and think Biden would make the best President of the lot of them.
GOP:
Huckabee
McCain
Paul
I’m winging it on this one — Romney is just so rudderless that I can’t see well-centered midwesterners going for him. The Paul folks, for better or worse, are possessed!
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 1:15 pm:
I should check to see how senior women are polling. They tend to be the very last to break.
- Muskrat - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 1:16 pm:
Guesses are free, right?
The whole question on the D side is whether Obama’s approach of getting out non-core-D groups works. Is he enough of a rock star, and do his people have wll the ground-war niceties tied up? If so, he wins. Otherwise, Clinton wins in an old-fashioned way. If I have to choose, I choose Obama, becasue of hsi speaking skills. Hillary may say the words people want to hear, but Obama could give a speech on Algebra and get people fired up.
On the other side of the aisle, Huck’s peaked. Iowa may be religious, but it’s not the snake-handling hothouse that, say, Alabama is. Romney wins, but it’s a very close three-way finish with him, Huck , and McCain.
- GollyGEEE - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 1:17 pm:
WINNER IN IOWA
Democrat
1st Obama
2nd Obama
3rd Obama
Republican
1st Obama
2nd Obama
3rd Obama
Obama will win it all.
- Shallow Pharnyx - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 1:24 pm:
Dems
Obama
Edwards
Clinton
Repubs
Romney
Huckabee
McCain
Dems because voters are looking for an alternative to Hillary’s polarization.
Repubs because Huckabee’s Christianity faltered when he showed the Romney neagtive ad to the press.
- Downstate weed chewing hick - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 1:28 pm:
D- Edwards, Obama, and Clinton, with Richardson ending his campaign on Monday and endorsing Clinton (and hoping for a VP nod)
R- McCain, Huckabee, Romney, and Thompson, in a close one with all 4 claiming victory by finishing where they did and only McCain believing it.
- RBD - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 1:39 pm:
D: Obama, Clinton, Richardson (an easy ‘second’ choice)
R: Huckabee, McCain, Rudy & Mitt (neither with impressive results)
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Undecided come out 2nd or 3rd. I think the Republicans will end up with a brokered convention.
I come from a caucus state. It is a process that allows everyone to understand for whom they are voting to be delegates at the national convention. That’s not an option voters have in primary states. (When you vote in the IL primary exactly who is going to Denver or Minneapolis to represent you? And do you Republican voters understand that your delegates are really free agents; the primary vote is only ‘advisory’.)
Also, the concept of “instructing” voters on their second choice is ludicrous. It is one thing for a candidate to encourage his supporters but quite another for a campaign worker to tell people who their second choice should be. It is likely that only eligible voters are allowed in the caucus and neighbors are certainly not going to ‘instruct’ one another although there will be a lot of cajoling.
Not being in Iowa right now I don’t know what the talk on the street is but surely the kids of draft age must be pondering that particular governmental program and actively supporting the candidate that they think is least likely to call for military expansion. (I know parents of draft-age kids who continue worry about the draft.) Remember that 17-year-olds can caucus as long as they will be voting age by November.
- countryboy - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 1:57 pm:
Obama, Edwards, Clinton
Huckabee, Romney, McCain
Montrose called it - I’m also a native and spent last week there spectating. I see it the same way.
- so-called "Austin Mayor" - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 1:57 pm:
D: Edwards wins by being the second choice of the Biden, Richardson, Dodd and Dennis K voters. If the second-tier supporters were susceptible to the lure of Hilary or Obama they would have moved to them already.
R: The anti-Enlightenment vote will carry the day for the Huckster. Republicans bewildered and scared by the irrationality of their own party’s standard-bearers will put McCain into the number two slot.
– SCAM
- Chris - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 2:24 pm:
In 1992, Bill Clinton DID avoid Iowa. And a day after a mediocre showing in the Dem caucus, Tom Harkin withdrew.
As a native Iowan, I agree that Iowa is overrated. I reveled in it but I don’t get it. It’s all about early momentum. Iowa gets a huge economic boost from it. (Chris Dodd bought a house not far from my parents.)
I predict that the top three in each party (Clinton-Edwards-Obama and Guiliani-Huckabee-Romney) finish within 10 pct. point of each other. (Alphabetical, not my predicted order of finish). Still, Romney’s numbers will be disappointing overall. Guiliani, the moderate who did not campaign there, will surprise with a top-3 finish.
- Chris - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 2:28 pm:
Sorry. Brain cramp. Sub McCain for the Huckster in my top 3 prediction.
- Porter McNeil - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 2:44 pm:
Thanks to an increase in first-time caucus participants, along with crossover Republicans and Independents, Barack Obama is positioned to take his first step toward the Democratic nomination by winning Iowa. Edwards and Clinton will end up close behind.
On the GOP side, Huckabee edges out Romney, and McCain is a distant third.
(BTW, I saw Rich Miller Sr.’s majestic Obama Cadillac at this morning’s Obama rally in Davenport.)
- Rob_N - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 2:45 pm:
Montrose (and others)… Clinton is getting a bunch of support from Illinois also. She was born here and Bill cultivated quite a network during his 8 years in office.
Also, just ask Pres. Dick Gephardt how well the neighbor-state effect worked for him. It only carries a candidate so far (being able to supply “snow shovelers and babysitters” on caucus night doesn’t add up to that many percentage points).
- Rob_N - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 2:49 pm:
Porter writes, “(BTW, I saw Rich Miller Sr.’s majestic Obama Cadillac at this morning’s Obama rally in Davenport.)”
I believe it’s also appearing on YouTube…
- ArchPundit - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 2:56 pm:
–And a day after a mediocre showing in the Dem caucus, Tom Harkin withdrew.
Err…he didn’t withdraw until March 9th–after Kerrey did. He took 76% in Iowa with the second biggest total being for uncommitted.
- Ah Haaaa. - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 3:10 pm:
NOBODY shows up; no winners, no losers. And, by the way, why should ANYBODY care what a handful of folks in Iowa think? Ain’t we got no brains to decide for ou’selves?
- Reading on Walden - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 3:19 pm:
Democrat, Obama by at least 10 points. Has the best ground organization ever seen in Iowa. It also helps when the organization is solid and the candidate is solid. A lethal combination. Oh, they have plenty of money too.
Romney, again organization and some last-minute blunders by that other former governor of Arkansas. But, but, McCain will not come in first but will be called the surprise winner of the Republican side because of his “exceeding expectations” crap that everyone loves so much.
I’m pro-Obama, so I frankly don’t care who he faces in the general, he’ll beat them all. John Presta.
- Reading on Walden - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 3:23 pm:
Way to go to “GollyGEEE.” A commenter after my heart. John Presta.
- Angry Chicagoan - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 3:33 pm:
Good one, GoBearss. But with my Iowa roots I like to think we’re smarter than that.
OK, on to the prediction.
For the Dems — Basically a three way tie. It won’t clarify a thing. Hillary gets some second choice votes. Edwards has momentum and contacts from four years ago but is in a bind on second choice votes. Obama has a monster organization but unfortunately for him this caucus unlike previous ones is outside the college term.
Republicans. Huck and Romney tie, and the result effectively finishes Huckabee. McCain is close enough to escape to NH intact.
Watch the interplay of independents in NH. How McCain and Obama play the expectations game is hugely important, because their voting bases overlap in this key group of disaffected voters. Obama’s recent framing of some of his policies in the blather of conservative talking points suggest he’s well aware of this fact.
- Sacks Romana - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 3:43 pm:
D - Obama, Clinton, Edwards
The polling shows Obama and Clinton neck & neck, they both have lots of money, and a solid GOTV infrastructure. But I think supporters of the other Dem candidates are going to break strong for Obama. Biden and Richardson don’t have the sort of organizational strength to command their supporters to opt for anyone in particular. And if someone is supporting one of them I think it has to be a sign of at least some dissatisfaction with Clinton as a candidate and early presumptive nominee. While Edwards should also get a generous break from the lower-polling Dem candidates, I don’t think it’ll be enough to compensate for his relative lack of monetary and GOTV strength, and push him above Clinton.
On another note with Obama. I lived in Iowa for two years of graduate school, and somehow all the campaigns have my cell-phone number and think I’m an Iowa resident. I’ve gotten plenty of automated messages from the Pubs and Dems the last several weeks, but only one actual live person who was intent on engaging me and having a real conversation. That was from the Obama campaign.
R - Romney, Huckabee, ???
Nothing beats old fashioned millions of dollars and incredible GOTV apparatus. That’s what Romney has and it’ll beat any recent surge by Huckabee, even if his star is still rising. That said, there’s no one else even close to Huckabee in Iowa so he’ll definitely take a strong second aided by his recent jump in recognition. I think someone else is bound to take over 15%, but I have no idea who.
- Wumpus - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 3:52 pm:
D
Obama by 4 (thanks to all the Kucinich Voters
Edwards
Clinton
R Hucks
McCain
Thompson
Wumpus ? of the day.
Who is more disappointing thus far, Richardson or Thompson. Or was Richardson fighting for a Veep spot?
- Ellinoyed - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 4:57 pm:
I’m curious where this “Obama has the greatest organization ever seen” meme is coming from, b/c while Obama’s ground game is strong, Edwards’ organization is what’s kept him going despite the money difference, and turned IA from a two-person to a three-person race.
That said, Obama does have strong native support, and if all the IL college kids come back to campus to caucus and the first timers show up, Obama could win a close one. However, under the system the delegate numbers are decided in advance based on previous caucus turnout, so even if 300 people show up at some hall in Iowa City or Grinnell, if only 50 people showed up in 04, they get delegates based on that. And even if one candidate has a lot of support in that hall, if anyone else is viable they could still pick up a delegate or two. If HRC or Edwards pull big in established areas, or are strong in rural areas where Obama might not be viable, they’ll pick up delegates and that could make up for the newbie factor elsewhere.
Since in 04 the last Zogby poll called it almost exactly right, I’m going w/ that: Obama, Edwards, Clinton all w/in about 2 pts of each other. Today’s poll is essentially a three-way tie w/ the margin of error, and factoring in 2nd choices of supporters of the candidates who won’t be viable didn’t change anything (and Kucinich was polling a lot better (4%) in 04 than he is now (about 1-2), so Obama can’t really count on a big uptick from his folks). If that is the finish, it’ll be interesting to see how that gets spun.
On the GOP side, their system isn’t as convuluted as the Dems (it’s basically a straw poll) but based on the current polling I’d guess Huck, Mittster, maybe McCain edging Thompson for third.
- ZC - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 5:54 pm:
For the Dems - Obama, Clinton, Edwards. Nobody really knows, but I believe independents could be up in arms this year and turn out in unexpected numbers. Turnout’s been up the past couple of national cycles. And Obama is the change candidate for independents.
Republicans - Huckabee, Romney, Giuliani. Getting shellacked by the national news media isn’t exactly the kiss of death in a Republican primary.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 6:30 pm:
Betting with my heart, if not also my head, I picked Obama-Edwards-Clinton-Richardson. I figure Hillary is no one’s second choice, and Edwards is almost everyone’s number 2. Obama is counting on support from new caucus voters, a very risky proposition. He’s in position to win and has the team and infrastructure to pull it off.
On the GOP side, I’d guess Romney, Huckabee, McCain, Giuliani. I’m a Democrat, so this isn’t well informed, but Iowa doesn’t strike me as fervently conservative enough to rally around Huckabee, and so I think Huckabee has already peaked. Romney is the safe vote for Iowa caucus goers. McCain finally weathered the immigration storm and now looks like the strongest possible nominee in my estimation, but he has a long way to go. Is Fred Thompson still in the race? How will the Ron Paul phenomenon play itself out?
Weird wacky stuff. An actual contested election. Sort of.
- GOPer - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 7:09 pm:
R
Huckabee
Romney
Thompson
McCain
D
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
- RFK fan - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 9:42 pm:
Here it is:
D: Obama (and not quite as close as many believe), Edwards edging out Clinton for 2nd, n, Biden, Richardson
R: Romney, Huckabee, McCain, Thompson
- Establishment Republican - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 10:08 pm:
Democrats:
Round 1
Clinton- 29
Edwards- 27
Obama- 26
Biden- 8
Richardson- 7
Kucinich - 2
Dodd- 1
Post viability drop outs
Obama-35
Clinton- 33
Edwards- 30
uncommitted- 2
Republicans:
Romney- 30
Huckabee- 28
Thompson- 12
McCain- 11
Paul- 8
Giuliani- 8
Keyes- 2
Hunter- 1
- steve schnorf - Wednesday, Jan 2, 08 @ 10:26 pm:
I predict the Iowa results wil be meaningless, except to those who die from finishing in single digits, and not even all of them will die.
- prairiestatedem - Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 1:01 am:
Took a trip across the river to support our native son for the presidency….The previous posters tend to focus on the college students when discussing obama…well Im here to tell all my fellow Illinoisans …it goes way beyond that…PSD’s predicition is:
Obama
Edwards (Not too far behind at second)
Hillary (Her abrassive style and false concern for the commoners really shone through in the hawkeye state)
Repubs…
Hard to say but I think Huckabee will stay on top…tended to have good momentum in closing arguments.
Romney 2nd
McCain 3rd ( The vets will make an appearance to slide John into 3rd)
Thompson 4th
- Rob_N - Thursday, Jan 3, 08 @ 3:02 am:
PS… I’m hoping I’m wrong on my D prediction — tho’ only because I’m supporting Obama for the primary. Once that’s done I’d be happy to go with any of the candidates in the general.
I’m a bit of a contrarian that way; keeps it fun.
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