* The Sun-Times followed up on a poll story I wrote for subscribers this morning…
“The Mighty Quinn” played as Gov. Pat Quinn finished his speech announcing he was running for governor Thursday morning at the hotel where he launched many citizen initiatives.
But then he left the stage trying to avoid questions from reporters about polls showing his support a bit less than “mighty.” Quinn’s nine months as governor — after 33 years as a political activist, gadfly and sometimes-second-level elected official — have sometimes reinforced his image as a populist but other times left him vulnerable to charges that he’s now protecting the status quo.
A new Rasmusson poll finds 53 percent of Illinois voters disapprove of Quinn’s job performance while 45 percent approve.
The significance of the poll is it’s the first time a Rasmussen survey has ever shown more voters disapproving of Quinn’s job performance than approving.
The poll, by the way, also had the generic gubernatorial ballot…
In a generic ballot match-up for the 2010 Governor election in Illinois, a Democratic candidate holds a 43% to 37% edge over a Republican.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds that another 20% of voters there are not sure which party’s candidate they would choose.
The plurality of voters not affiliated with either party (43%) are not sure which candidate they would choose at this time. Thirty-six percent (36%) would pick the Republican while 21% would vote for the Democrat.
More on the Quinn announcement from the Tribune…
He spoke before a phalanx of cameras about his plans for rebuilding Illinois, although he never mentioned his unpopular push for a state income tax increase as a method to fund his initiatives.
Quinn explained that his lack of mentioning a tax increase was because “there’s only a certain amount of things you can talk about in the course of 10 minutes,” even though his address to supporters was about twice as long.
* The Hill followed up today on the Ditka didn’t endorse Patrick Hughes story…
Ken Valdiserri, who serves as president of Ditka’s Gridiron Greats Assistance Fund charity, said the endorsement could have been forgiven as a mixup, but that the finance committee situation is another matter.
“He never agreed to do it,” Valdiserri said. “Mike doesn’t have time to be on a finance committee of any politician. He doesn’t have time to be speaking and helping candidates when he’s in the middle of his busiest season,” which includes serving as an NFL analyst on ESPN.
And then a few minutes ago the Hughes campaign sent out this press release…
The campaign of Republican U.S. Senate candidate Patrick Hughes has issued the following official statement with approval of the Mike Ditka organization:
“As of October 22nd, Mike Ditka is endorsing Patrick Hughes for U.S. Senate. This statement is being issued jointly by Mike Ditka’s organization and the U.S. Senate campaign of Patrick Hughes. We have no further comment on anything that has been discussed or reported in any media.”
Due to Coach Ditka’s numerous business and personal commitments, he will not be serving on Patrick Hughes’ finance committee.
* Meanwhile, Crain’s reports that Gov. Quinn wants the federal government to guarantee a $14-billion Illinois pension obligation bond issue…
According to newly installed state Budget Director David Vaught, Gov. Pat Quinn recently brought up the idea with U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and others at the White House. The governor got a good enough reception that “he intends to extend” his efforts, Mr. Vaught said.
A federally guaranteed bond issue could be an enormous help to Illinois in dealing with a huge fiscal 2011 budget hole that Dan Long, executive director of the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, the Legislature’s fiscal research arm, now pegs at $11 billion to $12 billion.
Mr. Vaught said a federal guarantee would cut the interest rate on such a bond to “in the 3% to 4% range” from “5% to 6%.” That would make it much more profitable — and less risky — for the state, which would invest the funds in higher-yielding stocks and bonds.
Since any profits could be booked up front, at least in part, the state would be able to avoid making hundreds of millions and perhaps billions in annual contributions to worker pensions that it otherwise would have to come up with in the next few years.
- Team America - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 2:27 pm:
Well, now since Ditka has flipped back to endorsing Hughes (just don’t ask either of them any questions about it, according to the release), I wonder if Andy Martin is going to threaten to get his picket signs back out for Ditka’s restaurant?
- Niles Township - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 2:31 pm:
According to Good Day Chicago on Fox this morning, the same Rassmussen poll had Quinn beating Hynes nearly 2 to 1.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 2:34 pm:
No such result.
Rasmussen didn’t do head-to-heads.
- Fred - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 2:34 pm:
Ditka in, Ditka out. Now he is partially back in. Remember Ditka also did a video for Pat Quinn (D) saying Quinn was “good people”.
- wordslinger - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 2:34 pm:
The feds guaranteeing a POB? Are you kidding me?
There’s enough strain on the federal treasury, and enough federal debt being issued, without the country taking on the burdens of state governments that have been shortchanging their pensions.
The feds are already on the hook for many private pension funds that are going to blow up in the coming years.
The state has the ways and means to meet its obligations. All it’s missing are the guts.
- Capitol View - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 2:39 pm:
borrowing with a federal guaurantee…
why doesn’t the federal government just loan us the money at 3 or 4%? The federal reserve system has more money available than the banks do.
Or does this whole thing sound a little “Bernie Madoff-ish”? If I went to the bank to borrow money to invest in the market, they would throw me out the door.
- shore - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 2:45 pm:
the bottom line is that 3/4 the people that posted on this blog that said that Kirk would get creamed for being a moderate (what’s up fran eaton/anne leary/sorock?) were wrong and that once again the right wing of the party has been shown to be more talk than walk. Kirk had 2 issues in this campaign-a tough right wing challenge fracturing the party and beating him, which now looks like a hurdle cleared, and this kirk is bush dem candidate is obama line that he’ll face in the general.
Advantage:Team America, Louis Astaves and the North Shore GOP, Illinoisans who get an actual thinking congressman to run for senate, voters sick of the status quo, thecapfaxblog which will get an actual nailbiter senate race to cover for the first time in its history.
FAIL:Illinois Review, democrat strategists, pro-life activists, tea party members, and everyone else hoping for a Senate race mimicking the msnbc versus fox news b.s. that has become american politics.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 2:45 pm:
===3/4 the people that posted on this blog that said that Kirk would get creamed for being a moderate ===
You’re posting on the wrong blog.
- Anonymous45 - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 2:47 pm:
Quinn, like him or not, is creative and intelligent when it comes to solving IL’s structural deficit…at least he’s trying to come up with solutions and not sticking his head in the sand…go Pat go…
- cassandra - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 2:58 pm:
I think we need to give Mr. Vaught credit for doing his job and trying to generate some ideas for handling the budget crisis. The more ideas the better. Other state agencies should take note.
- Will County Woman - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 3:08 pm:
Memo
To: the other 49 states
Illinois wants a federal guarantee on its pension obligation. Do you want one too? Talk to U.S. Tresury Secretary Tim Geithner today!
- Will County Woman - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 3:09 pm:
Cassandra, I agree with you.
- True Observer - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 3:09 pm:
“Since any profits could be booked up front…”
Even bookies don’t book profits up front.
Maybe AIG can sell them insurance to guarantee interest rates wont go down.
- Leroy - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 3:12 pm:
‘The Mighty Quinn’? Really?
…
Everybody`s in despair
Every girl and boy
But when Quinn the Eskimo gets here
Everybody`s gonna jump for joy
…
Rather boastful, non?
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 3:13 pm:
===I think we need to give Mr. Vaught credit for doing his job and trying to generate some ideas for handling the budget crisis===
I’ll give him credit for keeping us afloat for a fiscal year or so, but “handling?” I don’t think this scheme qualifies.
Think of the POB thing as using your parent’s credit card for a cash advance instead of your own because your max’d out and your parent gets a better interest rate.
I was wrong, there was another rabbit in the hat. This just kicks the can down the road.
- Will County Woman - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 3:15 pm:
47th Ward, I agree with you.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 3:16 pm:
===Even bookies don’t book profits up front.===
Try to stay within reality here.
- dupage dan - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 3:21 pm:
Oh, yeah, pushing off the pension obligation farther into the future by borrowing huge amounts of money is creative. We’ve never heard of that solution before.
I belive that Quinn is intelligent - I just think he is in way over his head. Too much baggage from the previous administration. Feels too obligated to so many that he can’t move without bumping up against some group with a grievance. Then he backpedals and looks for the “creative” solution. Usually involving caving in.
- Niles Township - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 3:37 pm:
No such result.
Rasmussen didn’t do head-to-heads.
—————–
Rich, then the Fox reporter had no clue what he was talking about because he also said that Quinn has more money that Hynes. So two bad facts in one report. Not stellar, but then again this was their am reporter not their typical political leads, Conaty & Placko.
- cassandra - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 3:44 pm:
I didn’t say we had to implement all the ideas. But we should think them over carefully. Mainly, it’s a sign that the budget crew appears to be generating them, not merely making up fantasy budgets while waiting for a tax increase cash tsunami.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 3:51 pm:
NT, my suggestion is you watch a different morning news show.
- Anonymous45 - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 3:53 pm:
C’mon WCW…did you actually agree that one of Quinns’ “flunkies” had a good idea? Beejeesus!
- Ghost - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 4:23 pm:
I think borrowing more money is a horrible solution; BUT I also acknowledge that without a tax increase this is pretty much the only solution left. If we have to borrow, best way to do it is at the lowest interest rate possible.
If we arent gonna cut our way out of it, and the GA and GOP dont want to get the proverbial second job to make ends meet; then all that is left is to borrow our way out.
- Will County Woman - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 4:25 pm:
well actually no. I think the quinn administration official was putting some real good spin out there that coincided with his boss announcing his candidacy for governor. The situation being what it is in Illinois, and has been under the Quinn administration, the governor clearly needs to inspire some confidence. and, mr. vaught’s statement was intended to do just that–inspire some confidence/hope generally speaking, but more specfically inspire confidence in quinn’s leadership.
i think the quinn administration will be putting more positive spins on things from this point foward. i’m not suggesting that it will out-and-out lie, though. they need to make it look like they are managing and things are under control, and as cassandra noted “trying…” (that’s what I agree with her about)
i am not sure how good that is strategically at this point, though.
it’s a bit late to make the “stick with me, I’m working toward progress argument.”
If this is what the quinn administration tries to argue, I would say that they should have done that ages ago. from the moment that quinn gave his budget address he should’ve just told illinoisans that he was going to be all about the budget, and been about it. also, had he handled things better (i.e. worked with the GA better, etc) he could make the “work in progress” argument his platform.
- Team America - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 4:36 pm:
Huffington Post seems both confused and amused about the Ditka/Hughes kerfuffle.
http://editorial.huffingtonpost.com/tmp/individual-entry-archive78.html
- dupage dan - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 4:46 pm:
Borrowing may be a necessity that can’t be avoided. However, there is no overarching plan attached. Just trial balloons floated during the appropriate news cycle with all the star gazers watching to see how the great unwashed respond.(sorry - that was a bit much, wasn’t it?)
Borrowing and taxing should be last resorts - we are there whether we like it or not. Many here have, justifiably, demanded that a comprehensive program of severe cuts with limits on growth be put into place and realistic reforms be at least debated. Since little or none of that has happened I don’t think many will be willing to go blindly down the trail following PQ.
- Will County Woman - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 5:25 pm:
LOL! People when reading online newspapers PLEASE take time to read the reader comments sections. While you can’t draw any scientific conclusions from reader comments, they are neverthless still very helpful and VERY interesting, as is the case with the dome link below. LOL!
ng/x826023256/Quinn-to-formally-announce-candidacy-today
- steve schnorf - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 6:53 pm:
Folks, we already borrowed the pension money years ago, and its already debt. The only question is what effective interest rate are we going to pay on the debt, and how strict is the requirement that it be paid back timely going to be (the old “soft” vs “hard” debate).
Good for Vaught. We never thought of doing that back in the day. WS, guaranteeing a state ff&c obligation is about as close to zero risk as you can get, but the federal guarantee would buy the interest rate down. Its hard for me to understand why, since there hasn’t been a state government ff&c default in my lifetime, but the rating agencies work in mysterious ways.
A very good use of a small piece of the stimulus money, I would say. The feds could even put together a cross-collateralized pool, as long as it was all ff&c, and be very helpful to a number of states with a relatively small chunk of money.
- Vote Quimby! - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 7:17 pm:
Still chuckling over Da Coach! Ahhh…gotta love first-time campaigns!!
- Team America - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 7:19 pm:
Here’s that HuffPo link again- looks like they changed it and edited the title, so that link above is not longer correct.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/22/gop-senate-candidate-caug_n_330139.html
- wordslinger - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 7:41 pm:
Steve S., I’m very wary about the idea. The feds have enough on their plate.
I’m concerned the feds would guarantee the bonds and the state would somehow look to wiggle out of their obligations. Keep that printing press running.
I’m also leery about the Masters of the Universe seeing this as another non-productive financial instrument that they could take a taste.
You’re right, of course, about the rating agencies. They’re absurd. States can’t go bankrupt, have never defaulted (outside the old CSA) and have the ability to meet their obligations.
Of course, those subprime mortgages were Triple A, and the Masters used them to lend at 50-1 ratios.
Folks, there’s your problem, last year’s collapse of the international financial system due the reckless action of wizards who should have known better.
What’ scary is, all over the world, they’re still calling the shots.
- Bubs - Thursday, Oct 22, 09 @ 9:21 pm:
That Rasmussen poll leaves me at cross points.
On the one hand, given that the generic vote for Governor was by Rasmussen, which usually is kind to Republican candidates, that poll should leave Republicans worried. The Democrats have this state government in FUBAR territory, with their last Governor under a solid federal indictment, and the GOP STILL can’t win a generic vote.
On the other hand, given how Republicans have fared of late, it’s almost encouraging that the GOP is that close (meaning a couple of points south of where Rasmussen puts it.) Plus, that strong showing in unaffiliated bodes well for the undecided vote.
- Tipper10 - Friday, Oct 23, 09 @ 12:12 am:
“Feels too obligated to so many that he can’t move without bumping up against some group with a grievance. ”
Obligated to who? Patrick Fitzgerald? Isn’t apparent to people that Democratic regulars are coming to Quinn rather than the other way around? They see what’s ahead in November and want to use the Quinn brand as cover.
Honesty and reform at the top of the ticket vs. boring and bad campaign. If I’m down ballot it’s a no brainer. I’m going to be with Quinn.
- Andy Martin - Friday, Oct 23, 09 @ 12:16 pm:
Well!
Pat Hughes’ “sixty days of disaster” as a Senate candidate
Andy Martin says D. Paul Caprio, Jon Zahm and Patrick Hughes are embarrassments to the Republican Party
NEWS FROM:
ANDY MARTIN /2010
Republican for U. S. Senator
“He works for
the People of Illinois”
Suite 4406
30 E. Huron Street
Chicago, IL 60611-4723
(312) 440-4124
www.AndyforUSSenator.com
www.AndyforUSSenator.blogspot.com
www.AndyforUSSenator.wordpress.com
www.MarkKirk.us
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
Pat Hughes launches a disastrous U. S. Senate campaign, and ends up pitting conservative against conservative
How can Hughes run a statewide campaign on forty thousand dollars?
Andy Martin calls Hughes the “Chumbolone Candidate of the Century,” offers a $25 prize to anyone who can suggest a worse campaign than Hughes’
(CHICAGO)(October 20, 2009) It hardly seems believable but Patrick Hughes launched his “chumbolone campaign” for the U. S. Senate only sixty (60) days ago in Springfield on August 20th.
Since then, Hughes has careened from one calamity to another:
1. Hughes has avoided voting in elections most of his life, and only voted Republican for the first time in 2008. When challenged about these gaps, Hughes said he was “too busy” to vote. If Hughes only discovered he was a Republican in 2008, what did he think he was before 2008? Inquiring minds want to know.
2. Hughes hired conservative profiteer D. Paul Caprio to launch his senate campaign. By October 1st, Caprio had been thrown under the bus. Why did Hughes dump Caprio? Caprio’s claim that he left after Hughes’ campaign was “up and running” is a face-saving joke.
3. Hughes says he is an outstanding attorney. Andy Martin disclosed that Hughes had placed himself on “inactive” status with the Illinois Supreme Court. Hughes violated Illinois Supreme Court Rules by holding himself out as a practicing attorney. Hughes was forced to pay past due fees and renew his active status. Jon Zahm smeared Andy for telling the truth.
4. Hughes claimed he is a “real estate developer.” His major real estate development failed to put a shovel in the ground and was sued for non-performance. Now that’s a development!
5. Nine of Hughes’ supporters issued a letter to Republican county chairmen saying they supported Hughes, but failed to disclose some of the signers of the letter were on Hughes’ payroll. By mid-October, Hughes’ original nine signers have shrunk to six for a new letter on October 16th (see below).
6. On August 20th Hughes said he has $400,000 in financial “commitments.” By September 30th, Hughes’ “commitments” have shrunk to $130,000. What happened to the other $270,000 in commitments? Hughes was forced to loan his personal funds to his campaign to make up for the missing “commitments.”
7. Hughes calls himself a wealthy developer and investor, but came out against extending unemployment benefits to Illinois citizens who are facing the brunt of a brutal recession. Hughes’ remarks were the modern equivalent of “let them eat cake.” Who advised Hughes to take this stand? Caprio? Wealthy developer-in-a-recession anyone?
8. On October 16th Hughes “adviser” Caprio and five other individuals (down from nine in August) demanded that Eric Wallace and John Arrington withdraw as senate candidates. Caprio & Co. claimed that Wallace and Arrington previously agreed to do so. Both Wallace and Arrington deny any such “agreement to withdraw” exists. Wallace and Arrington are the Illinois GOP’s only statewide African-American candidates.
9. Hughes claimed he had been “endorsed” by NFL legend Mike Ditka. Hughes also claimed Ditka agreed to serve on Hughes’ “finance committee.” (The “finance committee” with the missing $270,000?) Andy Martin investigated and disclosed that Hughes lied. There was no “Ditka endorsement.” Ditka issued statements denying he ever endorsed Hughes and denying he ever agreed to serve on Hughes’ “finance committee.” In retaliation, Hughes campaign manager Charlie Johnston called Ditka a liar.
10. Hughes disclosed he launched his statewide senate campaign by spending only $40,000 in two months. An independent (non-Martin) web posting says:
“Those in the know say the Hughes candidacy is self-destructing. Funds are scarce. No organization. Operatives have quit. He has no damage control on the Ditka scandal.” (Source: IllinoisReview.com, October 19th)
11. October 19th D. Paul Caprio (him again) launched a “defense” of his role in the Hughes campaign, and triggered a new round of recriminations and counterattacks.
Where is Hughes in all of this chaos? Good question. Maybe hiding. And he wants to be a U. S. Senator?
Pat Hughes’ “sixty days of disaster.” What’s next? Stay tuned.
Closing note: Disillusioned Hughes supporters are very welcome to join Andy Martin’s campaign. Martin is a man whom the Chicago Tribune has called “an absolutely brilliant campaigner.” We are the genuine “conservative answer” to Mark Kirk, focused, friendly and all for Illinois. Please join us.
——————–
WIN THE PRIZE! We believe Pat Hughes’ doofus campaign brands him as the “Chumbolone Candidate of the Century.” We offer a $25 reward to anyone who can come up with a worse statewide campaign by any Illinois candidate (no, Alan Keyes does not qualify; he lived in Maryland) in this century. Send us your suggestions by October 25th. If you can think of anyone worse than Hughes, you win $25.