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Is it tightening?

Wednesday, Aug 20, 2014

* Democratic pollster Garin Hart Yang Research Group has Bruce Rauner ahead of Gov. Pat Quinn by 44-41. Two percent lean toward each candidate. The firm conducted the poll for Sen. Dick Durbin. These are likely voters, which makes it even more interesting since most of the polls showing a tight race are simply registered voters (where Dems do better). Greg Hinz

But a Garin Hart Yang survey released on May 14 had Mr. Rauner up six points, 46 percent to 40 percent. And another in April had the race 49 percent for Mr. Rauner to 39 percent for Mr. Quinn.

All of those polls were taken before the Quinn campaign and an independent group, Illinois Freedom PAC, began dropping millions in ads that slash Mr. Rauner for not paying enough income taxes, investing overseas and other rich guy sins. But the new survey was taken after those ads hit, specifically last week, on Aug. 12 to 14.

What I find particularly interesting is that Mr. Quinn’s numbers haven’t moved much since spring; he’s still right around 40 percent. But Mr. Rauner’s numbers have dropped — a classic sign of a negative campaign that is making some voters reconsider their position.

But there’s this

President Barack Obama’s job approval rating in the state is negative, with 51 percent disapproving of his performance and 47 percent approving. He was up 50 to 49 in the survey as recently as April.

Again, keep in mind that this is a Democratic pollster, but numbers is numbers and candidates like to know exactly where they are. To do otherwise would be foolish.

* Other stuff…

* Tribune poll: Chicago voters split on luring Obama library

* Pat Quinn to team up with Pat Quinn for Ice Bucket Challenge

* Greek parade organizer: Rauner, Quinn lineup left him sleepless: Parade organizer Basilios Dimitrios Mataragas, who is also president of the Federation of Hellenic American Organizations of Illinois, said he didn’t know of an attempt to kick Rauner out… “Four days before, I could not sleep because the pressure I was under for who I put in front and who I put behind,” Mataragas told Early & Often. “I felt, I cannot play anybody’s political campaign. We were not there to promote anybody’s campaign.”

* Korecki: Rauner pushes Uber; but Quinn’s camp uses it more often: For Quinn, the total is about $674. For Rauner, it’s about $581.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


19 Comments
  1. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 12:03 pm:

    It will be tightening until the scandals make the news.

    I had already predicted that the race would tighten now, and I already expressed concern that Quinn is needing to be ahead at this point, because once the news begins reporting on the Quinn scandals, coupled with the Rauner ad blitzes, he will lose a lot of support before the Election.

    Quinn simply cannot be behind at this point. I don’t care if it is tightening, it will be loosening after October. Quinn has to be ahead right now to suffer the upcoming losses ahead.


  2. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 12:04 pm:

    Bruce Rauner is up 6-10 points on the Governor, outside and above any margin of error.

    Saying he’s down 3 in a poll taken by a leaning group is only cutting the real difference in half and hoping that saying its true, it becomes true.


  3. - CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 12:04 pm:

    Looks like we should get the butter knife loaded up because Mitt is about to pop out of the toaster. No right wing social issues, total flip on tax hikes, no help from CommandoMakeItUp Kirk, and sleazy biz deals popping up every day are the ingredients for a LOSS.


  4. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 12:06 pm:

    This is interesting stuff, and Greg’s whole post is worth a read. The President’s numbers in particular stand out, and it would have been great to see an update on the Durbin race.

    While it is important to pay attention to this one, it is also important to take it with a grain of salt until additional polls roll in. For the time being, I am filing this one next to the poll that showed Rauner up by something like 14 points a couple weeks ago. It just does not “feel” that close at the moment, any more than it felt like a “blowout” a couple of weeks ago.


  5. - MrJM - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 12:14 pm:

    Pat Quinn to team up with Pat Quinn for Ice Bucket Challenge

    Bruce Rauner then buys the ice bucket and declares, “You know what? I bet Pat Quinn and his Chicago machine political allies don’t even know what an ‘ice bucket’ is… You know what? An ‘ice bucket’ is a bucket fulla ice. You know what? You know what? You know what?”

    – MrJM


  6. - LittleLebowskiUrbanAchiever - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 12:17 pm:

    Oswego, what is that based on? Your opinion?

    Garin Hart is highly respected and documented the movement in the race. You think they are making this up?


  7. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 12:25 pm:

    - LittleLebowskiUrbanAchiever -

    https://capitolfax.com/2014/08/11/polling-average-rauner-7-8-points-ahead/


  8. - Frenchie Mendoza - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 1:10 pm:

    I suspect — I hope — Karen Lewis will make a difference here. I know she (literally) just filed for Chicago mayor, but I hope her entrance in the overall picture will give Quinn the little bit of mileage he need to go over the top and trounce Rauner.


  9. - Raising Kane - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 1:10 pm:

    Interesting that Durbin didn’t release his own numbers.


  10. - Frenchie Mendoza - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 1:11 pm:

    BTW — the debate I’d like to see (and hopefully never will) is Karen Lewis versus Bruce Rauner.

    That. Would, Be. Fantastic.


  11. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 1:34 pm:

    Difference between the last poll and this is within the MOE, so I wouldn’t say there’s much if any actual “movement” statistically unless it’s backed by other polls


  12. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 1:36 pm:

    Adding: this is comparing a poll now to one three months ago. Hardly close enough to legitimize any movement, especially when it’s so small (if even real)


  13. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 2:00 pm:

    Vanillaman:

    Anyone would rather be up now, but if I was Quinn I would be pretty happy with this poll. Neither candidate has really started their advertising blitz.

    Generally, Democrats believe that they can make up as much as 5% with ground game. Rauner expects to have a much better field operation, but I have a sense labor is getting pretty fired up about defeating Rauner, so I would give Democrats the advantage.

    And Rauner’s team ought to be pretty worried at the rate that his numbers are falling. It shows that this race isn’t just a referendum on Quinn anymore, voters are starting to view it as a choice, and they aren’t so enamored with Rauner as a choice.

    Not clear where the third party candidates are in this poll, and in a race this tight, that is important.


  14. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 2:18 pm:

    Meh, I doubt either one of them runs away with it. Neither has a history of piling up big margins. Rauner’s only history is a narrow GOP primary plurality.

    If both the Libs and Greenies makes the ballot, I bet the winner doesn’t crack 50%.


  15. - Ginhouse Tommy - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 3:18 pm:

    It’s going to be interesting to watch this play itself out. If either candidate starts to fall behind, expect panic in the planning sessions. This could get real interesting. As for the three planned debates, since neither man is that thrilling of a speaker, it might turn out to be awkward for the viewers. I would hope for better but plan for the worse.


  16. - votecounter - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 5:17 pm:

    Rauner better find a way to get the GOP conservatives excited or at least interested or he is toast! You can’t win as a Republican replacing the base with indies you need both.


  17. - Ginhouse Tommy - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 6:05 pm:

    Votecounter Agreed.


  18. - Just The Way It Is One - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 8:20 pm:

    44-41. Yep. Now that finally does sound like somebody got it just about right where we truly ARE at at the moment in this Race.


  19. - steve schnorf - Wednesday, Aug 20, 14 @ 9:47 pm:

    I don’t remember seeingg the crosstabs on Obama, but if he’s only 49-51 statewide, given how badly we know he’s upside down among Rs it probably means he’s still in pretty good shape among Ds and Is, the ones Governor Quinn will want him to motivate to the polls.


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