Poll shows ten-point lead for Hopkins
Wednesday, Apr 1, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I’ve avoided writing about this race mainly because Brian Hopkins and I go way, way back to our college days. But, whatever. Numbers is numbers, as they say, so for his sake, I hope this poll is accurate…
A new Ogden & Fry poll on Chicago’s 2nd Ward aldermanic runoff race shows Brian Hopkins in the lead over Alyx Pattison.
The survey, conducted Tuesday on behalf of Aldertrack, showed Hopkins polling at 55.3 percent to Pattison’s 44.7 percent.
Hopkins and Pattison are competing for the open 2nd Ward seat being vacated by Ald. Bob Fioretti (2nd), who made an unsuccessful bid for mayor. Fioretti opted to run for mayor after he was drawn out of his original 2nd Ward and into the 28th Ward during the 2012 remapping process.
The poll is here.
US Sen. Dick Durbin and most labor unions, among others, are backing Pattison. Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, among others, are backing Hopkins.
* And speaking of Preckwinkle…
Gov. Bruce Rauner’s hand-picked state Republican chairman is looking to put Democratic Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle in a political trick bag on property taxes.
Republican Commissioner Timothy Schneider of Streamwood intends to ask colleagues at Wednesday’s board meeting to record their opposition to a property tax increase. The symbolic measure would not have the force of law but could tie Preckwinkle’s hands as she tries to fashion a 2016 budget with significantly higher costs from rising debt payments, increased employee salaries and possibly bigger pension contributions.
Preckwinkle, who has maintained all options are on the table for balancing next year’s budget — including the “last resort” of a property tax hike — called Schneider’s move “ill-conceived and irresponsible.” […]
The county has not increased property taxes since 1994, when an ordinance was passed requiring a two-thirds vote of the 17-member board to increase taxes by more than 5 percent or the rate of inflation, whichever was lower. But other local governments, including the city of Chicago and Chicago Public Schools, repeatedly have raised property tax collections in the last 20 years.”
Schneider is also the state GOP chairman. He has signed up two Democrats to his resolution, but needs three more to pass it.
* Other stuff…
* Old-school aldermen try to hold on in runoffs
* On Daley family’s home turf, Kozlar aims to be latest upset winner
- tikkunolam - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 12:06 pm:
For what it’s worth, Rich, those Ogden and Fry polls turned into trashcan fires once they stopped including undecideds in February. They blew some races by 10 points or more.
- Belle - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 12:08 pm:
I live in the 2nd Ward and my guess from the start of this was that Brian would win it.
My guess was only based on his part of the Ward being the most densely populated and since he was involved in SOAR, he would be well known.
- A guy - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 12:12 pm:
I hope this poll is right.
- Anonin' - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 12:14 pm:
Was Brian really tryin’ to win. Can’t bear to think of campaignin’ to be on the Chicago City Council
BTW has CarWashTim called for a travel ban to or thru IN?
- the Other Anonymous - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 12:14 pm:
“Gov. Bruce Rauner’s hand-picked state Republican chairman is looking to put Democratic Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle in a political trick bag on property taxes.”
Why would Rauner want to pick this fight too? I mean, I know that he wants smaller government and lower taxes at all levels, and he especially wants to punish public sector unions and workers at all levels. But doesn’t he have his hands quite full already?
- Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 12:15 pm:
Any truth to the rumor his rise in polls corresponds with changing the campaign slogan from ==I know Rich Miller== to ==Not Rich Miller==?
Good luck to you, Mr Hopkins.
- Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 12:18 pm:
==called Schneider’s move “ill-conceived and irresponsible.”==
Known to others as ==Cook County politics==.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 12:36 pm:
===Alyx Pattison===
He was great in those Twilight movies.
- Demoralized - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 1:16 pm:
==Republican Commissioner Timothy Schneider of Streamwood intends to ask colleagues at Wednesday’s board meeting to record their opposition to a property tax increase. ==
Grover Norquist would be proud.
- LilLebowskiUrbanAchiever - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 1:20 pm:
One of those polls Ogden and Fry blew in the first round was the 2nd Ward. They had Hopkins leading by 17 and he only won by 5. Hopeful that that they are just as wrong this time.
Alyx is a real talent. Not everyday an Aldermanic candidate is endorsed by the both the Tribune and Sun-Times AND labor.
- Nemo - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 1:56 pm:
AlYx is just about the most un-Chicago female name I can think of.
- ZC - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 2:08 pm:
I’ll be in the field for Alyx Pattison all day this Tuesday, but whoever wins this race should make a good alderman. I think Brian had the natural advantage with his base / name recognition on the eastern side of the ward, but Alyx shook a lot of hands this past year. Wouldn’t count her out. Ogden & Fry, as noted above, not that reliable.
- Just Me - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 2:54 pm:
With such a small area to cover, it is all about GOTV. Polls don’t really matter.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 2:57 pm:
===With such a small area to cover===
Dude, have you seen that ward map?
- Amalia - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 3:12 pm:
I love Chicago, where all the focus is on the lakefront wards.
- Rapscallion - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 3:16 pm:
=The county has not increased property taxes since 1994, when an ordinance was passed requiring a two-thirds vote of the 17-member board to increase taxes by more than 5 percent or the rate of inflation, whichever was lower.=
Soooooo, did the county board ACTUALLY increase taxes within the limitations of PTELL, or did they not? If they did, then the writer just made a complete lie that was refuted in the next sentence.
I guess if he accurately wrote, “The county board hasn’t raised taxes by more than 5% since 1994.” he couldn’t generate sympathy for a bigger tax increase. Do editors even read their writers’ pieces anymore?
Gosh, do I ever miss the days when there was at least coherent, well communicated journalism in Chicago news sources.
- Gooner - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 3:17 pm:
Amalia, that ward stretches pretty far west.
This is an interesting race with two high quality candidates, and oddly, both of them have produced laughably bad attack ads.
I had hoped for more from those two on the attack ads, but these things happen.
By the way, I probably will be out there working for Brian. Those of us who post here should have some signal to the other regulars so that for at least a few minutes on that day, we can have a laugh about other stuff.
- Precinct Captain - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 4:00 pm:
Ogden & Fry got some right in February and some wrong. It’s a mistake to rely only on polling that removes undecided as an option after EV starts, but it also gives a perspective on where people may lean at any particular point in time when put on the spot. The thing to look at more is how particular pollsters are modeling the electorate and how they are reaching cell phone users and whether those cell phone users are accurate in regards to geography. Due to my cell phone area code I have gotten polls and robocalls for races I live nowhere near. It’s a difficult environment for pollsters out there.
Nevertheless, I think Brian’s got a great campaign team and he’s a great candidate and they will pull it out.
- Amalia - Wednesday, Apr 1, 15 @ 6:51 pm:
@ Gooner, yeah, not compared to say where Arena and Garrido are!
besides, worry about the details of the early match on Saturday! Stevei Gerrard, we hardly saw ye in that second half and shall not see ye at the Emirates. Go Gunners!