The other potential candidates
Wednesday, May 25, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I think it’s just too early for this. It’s akin to all the chatter about a Cubs vs. White Sox World Series. But, whatevs. Democrats cannot stand this governor and therefore the speculation will intensify as the days progress.
Here’s Mark Brown on what happens if US Sen. Dick Durbin doesn’t run for governor against Bruce Rauner two and a half years from now…
After Lisa Madigan, the list is less obvious.
State Treasurer Michael Frerichs was elected in 2014 with Rauner and appears to covet the governor’s job, but may not have the stature at this point.
Frerichs moved into the treasurer’s post from the Illinois Senate, where several of his former colleagues — Daniel Biss, Andy Manar, Kwame Raoul and Heather Steans — also are believed to be positioning themselves for higher office.
All four are among the more cerebral members of the Legislature, but going up against Rauner would be a major step up in weight class for any of them. […]
Former Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn is said to want a rematch with Rauner and never shies from the competition, but at some point, he’s going to have to recognize that his electoral career is finished.
Businessman Christopher Kennedy has flirted with runs for political office on several previous occasions, but some believe he is serious about jumping into the race against Rauner.
Quinn lives in Quinnland, so I’m not sure he got the memo about his electoral career, or ever will. Brown also mentioned Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart, who could be the strongest candidate in the bunch, but getting him to run is a different matter. Sen. Steans has been traveling the state for a while now, and she’d have access to significant resources, but she’d be starting from scratch.
* Korecki…
Whoever runs against Rauner must be prepared to go up against the former private equity investor’s bottomless pit of money and the monsoon of opposition research and negative attacks that Rauner is capable of financing. Some insiders are estimating Republicans may spend $100 million in the next gubernatorial campaign. Dems wouldn’t have to match that dollar for dollar, but they’d have to raise $60 million to stay competitive. That’s why party insiders are looking to persuade big guns like Durbin, and to a lesser degree, Arne Duncan. Lisa Madigan would be a formidable opponent if her father agreed to step down as speaker if she were elected. While Brown notes other rising stars, they’d have a tough road ahead building name recognition and creating a strong organization while battling the Rauner jabs.
Brown’s kicker seems appropriate here: “Add it all up and what do you get? A lot more speculation about Durbin being the candidate.”
I really doubt that Speaker Madigan will step aside, mainly because doing so would seem like an admission that Rauner had forced him off the battlefield. Duncan does appear to be positioning himself for something. And I speculated in comments a few days back about Rauner potentially spending $100 million. The word’s definitely going around.
Your thoughts?
- PublicServant - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 8:32 am:
Chris Kennedy sounds intriguing and, I think, would be a strong candidate. Tom Dart would be strong too. Quinn needs to hang it up, although I certainly wish more people had seen through Rauner’s smokescreen, and joined me in voting for Quinn. Undoubtedly, the state, its economy, social services, and higher education as well as our credit rating would have been in infinitely better shape today.
- Are Ya Kiddin' Me? - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 8:33 am:
As Rich said “I think it’s just too early for this. It’s akin to all the chatter about a Cubs vs. White Sox World Series”, but the true speculation will also be…Does Rauner run for a 2nd term?
I don’t think so…he’s 1 and done.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 8:35 am:
===he’s 1 and done===
Keep dreaming.
- AC - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 8:39 am:
==Former Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn is said to want a rematch with Rauner==
Despite a great many union members voting against their own self interest, and subjecting the state to unprecedented financial and human hardship, Pat Quinn still hasn’t learned his lesson. Would he need to lose a race to Cthulhu to understand that his time as Governor is truly over?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 8:39 am:
I have my own Dem governor thoughts, but…
…I believe Dart running for Mayor of Chicago really seems to be the best fit for him and the timing might work out perfectly.
To Durbin, I still say this…
From yesterday…
===The “thing” anyone thinking about taking on a wealthy incumbent without a primary challenge (Rauner won’t face one) and a unified party apparatus behind all this millions is someone Rauner can’t pigeon-hole at the $50-70 million clip, and Rauner still will have $20-30 million to the positive.
So, while that candidate is fending off attack and attack, Rauner will be able to brand himself at a clip must candidates spend on a whole campaign from soup to nuts.
Sen. Durbin, while accomplished, and an undisputed leader in the Illinois Democratic Party, there’s plenty there, just by longevity alone, to focus an 8-digit negative Mesa campaign for weeks upon weeks.
Something else to… ponder. This is totally Illinois-centric. The national successes can be manipulated here as a failure to Illinois, putting on its ear the entire laundry list of well deserved kudos Durbin has earned, framed as a DC Insider more focused on things that “hurt” Illinois (even if it didn’t).
It also wears on a candidate and Crew the constant barrage, like a million a week spent to tear down a legacy, and half a million a week to prop up the incumbent’s own record, ahead of any counter-attacks.===
I purposely neglected the “age” factor yesterday, but I won’t today.
The factors I mention above thrusted upon a man, past 70, at a 9-digit clip, mostly negative about him? Tough.
It’s also tough to beat a sitting governor, popular or not. Edgar, Rod, Quinn… Thompson, all ran, all got reelected.
I got my eye on one. I’ll see if it plays out. Taking on Rauner… right now might possibly be just a fool’s errand, and possibly a career crusher.
- Blue Bayou - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 8:40 am:
Arne Duncan?
Arne Duncan??
I wouldn’t vote for him for dog catcher, unless I wanted to see all of the dogs get stupider by a terribly run system of canine education.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 8:45 am:
Geez, I could not care less at this point.
I would, however, like to hear the current governor state specifically and publicly what his pre-conditions are today for passing a budget.
It would be swell if he had some data on the projected benefits of those pre-conditions as well. That way, we could weigh if the ever-escalating costs of his pre-conditions are reasonable and justified.
Just vague mumblings of “reforms” day-in and day-out is not particularly informative.
And Sen. Radogno’s claim that they’re “fighting for the soul of the state” is just loopy.
- an independent - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 8:45 am:
If Madigan were to vow to retire in the event that Lisa were elected governor it is a win win for him If she were to win, a strong probability, he retires with a grin, declaring his battle won and he and his settled the score. On the other hand, if she were to lose he carries on, noblesse oblige I guess.
- Illini Bluffs - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 8:46 am:
Arne Duncan? Rauner would have a field day with negative ads over his tenure at CPS and USDOE.
Common Core forever!
as for Lisa Madigan, does she have the fire in the belly for a tough race?
Dart seems to be positioning himself for Mayor of Chicago.
- Birdseed - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 8:46 am:
” Lisa Madigan would be a formidable opponent if her father agreed to step down as speaker if she were elected.”
I firmly believe the GOP would vote for Lisa if this was pact was made.
- burbanite - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 8:47 am:
Blue Bayou +1
- Dan Johnson - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 8:47 am:
So with about 2 million votes likely to be cast in 2018, Team Rauner might spend $50 per vote — not just his, but total. And if it’s a 50-50 race, they are willing to spend $100 for each of their votes. That’s extraordinary. And feels a little bit like a 1930s banana republic. That much wealth and democracy doesn’t sit well.
If that isn’t an incentive to register and organize votes, I don’t know what is.
- They're There Their - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 8:50 am:
I think Tom Dart would be a great Governor. In his current position as Sheriff, he has taken high profile positions on controversial issues and has always been on the right side. He’s respected and could bring trust and integrity back to the governor’s office. Also, it would help revive Tim Dart’s struggling lobbying career (snark at the end).
- Brian Johnson - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 8:54 am:
Just curious, what HAS Bruce accomplished as Governor. I’d love to see the list.
Brian
- A guy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:01 am:
The US Senate is Retirement living and Durbin has been there long enough to enjoy the lifestyle. To potentially end his career with a loss would be injurious to his self-perceived legacy. Not likely.
Tom Dart is a great guy and a real family guy. Very much doubt he’d leave home for more that 2 days in a row. Mayor of Chicago more likely.
Arne Duncan. Um, no. Pretty boy. Wouldn’t go rock ‘em, sock ‘em with anyone. A lover not a fighter.
Chris Kennedy is a nice guy. Even a wonderful, great guy. Not tough in the least. Too many connections to the Daley clan too. That family is risk averse when it comes to money; theirs, not other people’s. He’d be flattered, defer and give someone else $5K.
Pat Quinn. Always likely to run. Not ever likely to win. That was an anomaly. His whole career has been.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:03 am:
===Not ever likely to win. That was an anomaly.===
Except when Quinn did win…
Treasurer, Lt. Governor, Reelected as a governor…
Words have meanings, you know that… right?
- The Captain - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:04 am:
Usually when there is a gubernatorial nominee in waiting (or several who believe they could be) they act like it. The only real visible political opposition to Rauner so far has been the Speaker. And while the Speaker is a staffer’s dream for how disciplined and almost always precise he is in his remarks he’s still not the best messenger and either way he’s the only one doing anything. Biss’ policy response to Rauner’s Turnaround Agenda doesn’t count, this is going to be a heavyweight title fight, not a book club.
If one of these potential candidates wants the respect of Democratic activists they need to step up now and demonstrate that they can take the heat. They need to be a regularly vocal opposition to the Governor who so far has put the state in a worse position than he found it. And they need to prove they can stand up to the Governor’s team’s response which is usually akin to a bazooka shot at a house fly. Stand up now when it’s needed rather than wait a year and a half when it’s transparently part of your fundraising plan.
Rauner’s team has been tough on some of the more vocal Democrats. I can think of a few legislators that were much louder last year than this year after getting the brunt of it. It’s not easy to go up against the Governor and his almost limitless funds, it takes guts, but now is when it’s needed.
- doofusguy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:04 am:
Blue Bayou +2 - even though I’m not all anti-Arne
Also think it is to early to speculate as it this point its even possible (maybe not probable) that Bruce doesn’t run - which changes the whole equation
- Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:06 am:
Dan Johnson-
For every voter who is concerned about the effects of money in our electoral process, there are 10 who would take the $100.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:07 am:
Rauner is personally $30-40 million deep into this investment.
Rauner isn’t going to hand over anything, Rauner is going to run.
- A guy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:17 am:
===Treasurer, Lt. Governor, Reelected as a governor…===
Slate anomaly, convenience, bigger anomaly.
- siriusly - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:18 am:
Durbin is a great concept candidate for the Dems, but for all the reasons mentioned I am going to agree and say there is no way he does it.
I think it’s more likely to be a Raoul or Biss, or them as a team. Quinn may throw in at first just to test the waters - but I think he is “yesterday’s tomatoes”
Lisa Madigan would be a great candidate someday, but not against Rauner and not with Speaker still in the chair. I don’t see her throwing in. Although I am really curious about what she will do in 2018 because I don’t see her going for AG again. But we’ve said that about Jesse White for a long time too.
Dart for Mayor - maybe? But there may be another candidate from the 19th Ward for that job too.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:23 am:
- A Guy -
Quinn ran, Quinn won. Can’t rewrite it.
- They're There Their - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:25 am:
what other 19th warder for mayor? Matt O’Shea? Rug? Joyce? Sheehan?
- They're There Their - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:25 am:
Paul Vallas?
- New Slang - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:28 am:
OW. Do spill. Who’s your guy/gal? Be a true pundit and not like my buddy who gambles and when he doesn’t place a bet on a game, says, “oh, I knew they’d cover…” CapFax commenters must be dying to know.
- Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:33 am:
Frehrichs ran an absolutely horrible race and still won against a relatively well known house leader. Just think what he could do with a better organization and campaign. Raoul is also intriguing. SOS?
- Double Nickel - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:35 am:
Cheri Bustos
- wordslinger - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:38 am:
–Arne Duncan? Rauner would have a field day with negative ads over his tenure at CPS and USDOE.–
LOL, I don’t think so.
You might want to brush up on their history.
- From the 'Dale to HP - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:39 am:
You forgot Hynes, They’re There Their.
- 630 - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:39 am:
Cook County Commissioner Gainer has ties to 19th Ward and she is considering Mayor of Chgo.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:44 am:
Bill Daley?
Roland Burris?
Jack Franks?
Sheila Simon?
Scott Lee Cohen?
Napoleon Harris?
Carol Moseley Braun?
John Schmidt?
Who did I miss?
- Handle Bar Mustache - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:46 am:
Quinn’s bashers (Rich included) really soured on him after the 2014 election.
Most average Democrats still acknowledge his faults, but like the guy and wish like heck he’d won.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:49 am:
- New Slang -
Not being coy to be coy, or to be “I knew it!”
I’ve shown more times than not that I’ll admit I’m wrong.
Why I am not saying? We have November to get thru first, and second, I never want to jinx anyone either, or have them have me as a burden for “years”.
I’m watching one.
- A guy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:51 am:
===- A Guy -
Quinn ran, Quinn won. Can’t rewrite it.===
So did Harding, Hoover, Polk, Carter, Marion Barry, Jesse Ventura, Evan Meacham, just to name a few….
- A guy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:54 am:
Hate to even offer this guy up because he’d make some sense. Blago’s successor in Congress. Can’t bring myself to typing his name. He’s a good guy and it makes too much sense.
- Handle Bar Mustache - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:54 am:
A guy,
Are you suggesting Rauner is doing a better job than Quinn did?
- From the 'Dale to HP - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 9:57 am:
A guy… Rahm? Why would the Dems do that? Plus he’ll probably be in DC by then.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 10:01 am:
Oh - A Guy -, lol.
You run, you win, multiple times, it’s not an anomaly.
Quinn won reelection as a sitting governor.
Take solace in that with Rauner…
- New Slang - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 10:03 am:
Hey OW, you don’t have to be cool to rule my world. Others here are speculating for the sake of comment vetting. It’s fun.
“What am I not saying?”
Who you have your “eye” on, buddy! Tell us who’s behind door #OW!!
- Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 10:04 am:
==After Lisa Madigan, the list is less obvious==
The =Daddy Conspiracy= is no longer tinfoil hat territory but now an obvious choice if Sen Durbin does not run?
I also doubt that Speaker Madigan will ever step aside voluntarily.
- RNUG - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 10:06 am:
===he’s 1 and done===
Nope. Not until the unions, and especially AFSCME, are destroyed.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 10:11 am:
–Hate to even offer this guy up because he’d make some sense. Blago’s successor in Congress. Can’t bring myself to typing his name. He’s a good guy and it makes too much sense.–
Emanuel for governor makes sense in your world?
You might want to check recent polling on his popularity.
- RNUG - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 10:12 am:
== For every voter who is concerned about the effects of money in our electoral process, there are 10 who would take the $100. ==
I’ll take the money and still vote against Rauner!
- Appalled - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 10:16 am:
Has Manar showed any interest in running?
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 10:19 am:
- New Slang -
I’m far from cool, I have no worries there…
November 2016 is a thousand miles away. By state fair of 2017, the field will weed itself out. I could make a case for or against any above and maybe some not listed. That’s yhe beauty about this game. I’ll discuss that, sure.
I’m watching one, it’s not Durbin.
With great respect.
- A guy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 10:37 am:
===A guy… Rahm? Why would the Dems do that? Plus he’ll probably be in DC by then.===
Oy vey. Quigley.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 10:54 am:
- A Guy -
What words actually mean isn’t your strong suit, is it?
- Anon - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:00 am:
5th Congressional District went Rod, Rahm and then Quigley.
- ZC - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:49 am:
“State Treasurer Michael Frerichs … may not have the stature at this point.”
Bonus points for this sentence; how much did Mark Brown smile when he typed this?
- 2 to 1 - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:54 am:
Durbin - A brand name offering to be the adult in the room. Passive-aggressively pushing a draft Durbin movement. Seems to want a clear field and at least a $30-40 million commitment from labor and the trial lawyers before seriously considering the leap. Chances of running, less than 50/50.
Quinn - Yes, he’s semi-delusional. But that doesn’t mean he can’t win the nomination. If he faces a multi-candidate field of little known legislators he can win with a plurality of the vote. Rauner praying for a rematch. Chances of running, better than 70 percent.
Lisa Madigan - Last time proved she will not run as long as her father is still around. Chances of running, close to zero.
Steans, Raoul, Biss, Manar - All are fine senators and skilled pols, but the climb from the General Assembly to Governor is a steep one. Most damaging, they’re all part of the Springfield mess. Steans does has a family fortune to tap and the prospect of a woman countering Rauner’s tough-guy routine is intriguing. And Raoul’s chances could become promising if he’s the only black candidate in a big field. Still, all would be better off running for a down-ticket constitutional office first. Chances of at least one of them running, better than 50/50.
Chris Kennedy - A Springfield outsider, deep pockets, a great name, and a successful pro-Union businessman who gets big projects done and understands politics. But he’s never been tested in a campaign and arguably, his one foray in public office as the chairman of the U of I board didn’t go well. Feels like anytime he get’s close to running, someone pulls back the reins. Chances of running, 20 percent.
Mike Frerichs - Struggling to raise profile in a low profile office. Eyes on Sec. of State. Chances of running for Guv, 10 percent.
Tom Dart - A constant presences on Chicago television. Thanks to keen political instincts, has developed a reputation as a young, progressive outsider who’s shaking up the system, despite a long career in Illinois politics. His behind the scenes fights with Speaker Madigan during his legislative stint would be an asset. Has a big, young family and seems more focused on City Hall. Might be the candidate Rauner fears most. Chances of running, 25 percent.
Cheri Bustos - An overlooked long shot. Could be pushed by Durbin if he doesn’t run himself. A female, downstater with no Springfield ties, she might be a tough target for opponents. A complete unknown, introducing herself to voters will be tough and expensive and downstaters have not fared well in Dem primaries of late. Chances of running, less than 10 percent.
Toni Preckwinkle - Somewhat surprising that she is showing no interest, but she checks a lot of boxes: Springfield outsider, woman, African-American, high name recognition in the Chicago media market, a good fundraiser, and politically savvy. Aloof personality and the return of the Stroger Tax work against her. Chances of running, less than 10 percent.
Arne Duncan - Doesn’t have the stench of Springfield on him, but CPS might smell worse. He’s a hit on the limousine liberal cocktail circuit and will raise money, but the teachers will fight to their dying breath to stop him (and probably Steans, too.) Chances of running, 20 percent.
- A guy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:56 am:
===5th Congressional District went Rod, Rahm and then Quigley.===
Well done. Does that not make Quigley the “current” successor?
- A guy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 11:58 am:
===What words actually mean isn’t your strong suit, is it?===
Pope Francis is a successor to St. Peter. I’m positive there were some in between. Your sarcasm is a gift. In your mind.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:12 pm:
===Blago’s successor in Congress.===
That’s Emanuel. Blago’s successor was Rahm.
There was no “a”, that you conveniently added.
Please stop digging, lol
- Bleh - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:13 pm:
Here’s a few just for fun:
-Commissioner Chuy Garcia
-First Lady Michelle Obama
-CPS CEO Claypool
-CTU President Karen Lewis
- Anon - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:24 pm:
A guy—from Mr. Webster
successor-a person or thing that succeeds, or follows, another; esp., one who succeeds to an office, title, etc
On the face of it, your comment is taken to mean Rod’s immediate successor, which was Rahm.
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:27 pm:
Quinn will run again. Mark it down. You can’t talk him out of it and he doesn’t seem to have much else (permanent, anyway) going on.
— Would he need to lose a race to Cthulhu to understand that his time as Governor is truly over? –
Don’t blame me, I voted for the Thing That Should Not Be.
- A guy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:28 pm:
oh, ow, only one of us has all day. Hint: Gotta run.
- Ghost - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 12:56 pm:
sorry im still
laughing at the does Frerichs have the “stature” to run comment, havent made it to the rest of the article.
- Downstate Donkey - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 1:19 pm:
There will be a number of senior Obama administration folks returing to Illinois in a few months and two of them are worth keeping an eye on: Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker. Obama Senior Adviser Valery Jarrett. Pritzker, in particular, could be an attractive candidate.
- Snucka - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 2:38 pm:
Fact: Frerichs is hoping that Durbin doesn’t run for Senate again, so he can take his shot.
Speculation: The Frerichs crew is a main driver behind the Durbin for Governor talk.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 3:16 pm:
Oprah, celebrity candidate. Our current governor proved that no prior experience is needed to win, and boatloads of cash and a vague, feel-good message helps.
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 3:46 pm:
That would require Oprah to return to Illinois, when she’s spent very little time here since her syndicated show went off the air.
- Full Disclosure. - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 8:46 pm:
How unethical for Mark Brown not to mention that his wife was a recent 6 figure political hire of Tom Dart. Must be nice for Dart to pay of the media and be named the “Strongest” candidate.
Sun-times Columnist Mark Brown’s wife Hanke Gratteau Brown is left-wing activist and former reporter herself. She was recently hired by Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart to six figure post… Ironically, her and her husband have written many articles critical of patronage hiring in Cook County.. Director position in the Sheriff’s office first step starting pay is $87,000… However, “Hanke” hired in 2015, was immediately bumped to $108,000..
- @MisterJayEm - Wednesday, May 25, 16 @ 10:50 pm:
Teacher: Who was George Washington’s successor in the White House?
Student: Barack Obama!
Teacher: See me after class.
– MrJM