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Drury gets million-dollar contribution

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This has been rumored all week…



Word is that Dury’s new TV ad ties fellow attorney general candidate Pat Quinn to Speaker Madigan. I’ll post it when I get it.

Weirdest year ever.

…Adding… This is an odd poll story because it’s so bereft of numbers, but at the very least it shows Drury believes he’s surging

DRURY INTERNAL POLL — Attorney General candidate Scott Drury released an internal poll Tuesday that showed big movement for Drury, and challengers Kwame Raoul and Pat Quinn in both directions. Drury’s support has jumped 5 percent, Raoul’s 9 percent. Quinn still leads the full slate of candidates although his support dropped about 20 percent. The poll was conducted by Deep Blue Strategies of Chicago. Thirty-three percent of respondents were undecided.

Jumped 5 percent or 5 points? Big difference. I’ll assume it means points. Also, he’s jumped 5 since when? And where’s he at now? 5? 10? I’ve asked the campaign for an explanation.

  30 Comments      


Strangest. Year. Ever.

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From tonight



And don’t forget to check her mentions.

…Adding… From a buddy…

In conservative speak I think that means that they just don’t have any special rights

OK then.

  30 Comments      


Question of the day

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From ABC 7

Ives also took a swipe at the two big money Democrats vying for the Democratic nomination, comparing them to Rauner.

“We already tried the millionaire, billionaire, no-government experience, no-political experience and I don’t think J.B. Pritzker sells to anybody. Same thing with Mr. Kennedy. He’s the same ilk,” she said.

Hmm. So she favors Sen. Biss?

* Sen. Biss didn’t return the favor on Bill Cameron’s show

Cameron: And may the best man win.

Biss: And the next time perhaps, may the best woman win. Or even, how about this? Just the best person, who quite likely would be a woman.

Cameron: But that’s not to say you just endorsed Jeanne Ives.

Biss: I… have been planning to defeat Bruce Rauner in the general election, but I would be very committed to defeating Jeanne Ives in the general election as well.

* The Question: What would a fall campaign look like between Jeanne Ives and Daniel Biss?

  51 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Edgar County Watchdogs files OEIG complaint

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Edgar County Watchdogs ran another story the other day about campaign and messaging e-mails between Diana Rauner and others, including then communications director Diana Rickert. Click here to read it. They’ve been publishing other stories on this topic for a while now (Click here, here and here). Well, they’ve taken it to the next level

In light of the multi-part series we have published recently regarding the activities taking place in the Office of the Governor, specifically, Washington DC campaign figures driving policy with direct communications to state officials in the Governor’s Office, we looked closely at our Illinois State Ethics Act. […]

In this case, we have filed a formal complaint with the Office of the Executive Inspector General (OEIG).

* From the complaint

Based on included information and privileged sources, we believe Governor Bruce Rauner has given his campaign staff control over policy making decisions and communications from his gubernatorial, state government office and is, concurrently, forcing state government staff to work, against their will, on his re-election effort. […]

In conclusion, the activities and circumstances outlined above appear to be clear evidence of violation of the State Officials and Employees Ethics Act, 5 ILCS 430 5-15(a)-(c). They appear to reveal a governor who violated this law as he was gearing up for his re-election campaign, allowing that campaign and those who run it to direct policy and communications for the official governor’s office.

We request an immediate investigation and resolution of this matter and the recusal of Gov. Rauner from appointing the next Inspector General, as they will be investigating this very serious case. That person needs to be independent of the governor.

* This timeline is also in the complaint

• July 10, 2017 - Gov. Rauner hires new Chief of Staff, Kristina Rasmussen, new communications director, Diana Rickert and new campaign staff as well as new general consultancy, Coldspark, for his re-election campaign.

• July 27, 2017 -Amidst debate in Congress over repeal of Obamacare, Rauner Campaign Consultant Nachama Soloveichik and First Lady Diana Rauner discuss Gov. Rauner’s public position on the issue, including which groups “can be helpful” to his re-election if he publicly opposed Congressional Republicans. Top State Government Staff, Chief of Staff Kristina Rasmussen and Communications Director Diana Rickert, are cc’d on the email.

• Aug. 3, 2017 - Diana Rauner emails Rasmussen, Rickert, Soloveichik and her partner, campaign consultant Mark Harris, advising that Gov Rauner should agree to support a K- 12 School Funding measure he has long opposed “to rewrite the narrative of the past two and a half years.”

• Aug. 4, 2017 - Gov. Rauner leads a meeting of his new state govt. staff and his campaign staff to discuss their organization structure and reporting. General Counsel Dennis Murashko expresses concerns in the meeting regarding political staff directing official staff.

• Aug. 21, 2017 -Murashko delivers a memo on Rauner’s state government office and how it is ethically and legally required to govern itself with regard to campaign staff and the re-election team. Rauner resists the memo.

• Aug. 23, 2017 Murashko resigns, giving two weeks’ notice.

• Aug. 24, 2017 Rickert and her communications team resign. Rauner’s office publicly says it is about a communications flap; privately, sources say, their departure is actually over
issues related to the memo.

• Aug. 25, 2017 Murashko is escorted out of his state office; The reason given: an anonymous OEIG complaint against him.

• Aug. 30, 2017 Rauner officially sign the K-12 school funding bill, the subject of the Aug. 3 email.

• Sept. 5, 2017 - An anonymous source tells reporter Natasha Korecki of Politico that the Murashko OEIG complaint alleged “he had misused the powers of his office.”

• Sept. 7, 2017 -An anonymous source tells reporter Rich Miller of Capitol Fax that “there’s speculation from inside that the memo Murashko wrote about politics in the governor’s office might have been drafted to somehow protect himself from the OEIG beef.”

• Sept. 20, 2017 Rauner publicly announces his opposition to the Graham-Cassidy Obamacare repeal bill pending in Congress, the subject of the Jul. 27 email. The language he uses in his statement mirrors the language suggested in that email.

• Dec. 8, 2017 Murashko’s memo is leaked to Miller, who publishes it.

• Dec. 11, 2017 Korecki complains publicly that her Freedom of Information requests to the Governor’s office, asking for Murashko’s resignation letter and the memo, have been ignored. Rauner’s office responds by releasing the resignation letter, but not the memo, which is already public on account of the leak.

• Dec. 12, 2017 Rauner tells reporters that the Murashko memo was “created at my urging.”

• Jan 4, 2017 Murashko defends himself on Facebook, suggesting his “professional integrity” was tested in the governor’s office, but he chose to do the “right thing.”

• Mar. 9, 2017 The OEIG exonerates Murashko, who publicly slams the anonymous complaint as “baseless” and restates that the memo he wrote “was necessary.” He does not validate Rauner’s claim that he told Murashko to write it.

I’ve been trying to reach Rickert for weeks to no avail. But if she claims that she left over issues related to the Murashko memo and not because she was fired after all the chaos, things could get interesting.

…Adding… On background, a senior Rauner official said in no uncertain terms that Rickert was fired for releasing that now notorious “as a white male” press release without getting clearance. The official also claimed that Rickert was “clearly” the one leaking these e-mails to the Edgar County Watchdogs “in an effort to rehabilitate her reputation.”

*** UPDATE *** Governor’s office…

Rich,

This is lazy and inaccurate conjecture quoting anonymous sources. This office follows all ethics laws. If there is an investigation, we will fully cooperate.

Rachel Bold
Press Secretary
Office of Governor Bruce Rauner

  37 Comments      


Ives launches two new ads

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Jeanne Ives press release…

In one week, Illinois Republicans will weigh in on the direction they want to take the Illinois GOP and thereby Illinois.

Will they nominate a candidate– as FNC Host Tucker Carlson put it, a “Fake Republican Governor”—who doesn’t deserve to be re-elected and will not be re-elected regardless of the Democrat nominee.

Or will they act consistent with their stated desire for new, conservative reform government.

Are Illinois Republicans ready to revolt against the Ruling Class?

Jeanne Ives frames the choice for GOP primary voters in her closing argument TV and radio spots.

The buy is a 2,000-point statewide network buy.

2,000 points?

* Proud

* Real Conservative

…Adding… It’s not 2,000 points per market, I’m told by a Rauner source, it’s 2,000 points total.

  31 Comments      


Rauner says he’s been an NRA member “for many years,” claims politics played no role in veto

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The governor was asked this morning on WJPF: “Aren’t you a member of the NRA?” His response

I am. I am. I have been for many years.

I have been looking around Google for a while now and I don’t think he’s ever admitted to that before. Not saying he hasn’t said it. I just don’t remember it and can’t find it.

* Anyway, after he vetoed the gun dealer licensing bill, he talked to reporters

Addressing reporters at a campaign stop in Naperville, the governor insisted his decision had nothing to do with trying to shore up conservative support a week before the primary.

“Not at all,” Rauner said. “What we are focused on is winning in November against Pritzker and Madigan and our message is a unifying message. It’s the right policy that everybody wants.”

“It just took time to study it to determine the right answer was to veto that one.”

“The right thing is to do a package, and I’m still going to push a package. I’m tired of waiting. The General Assembly still hasn’t passed what I think is really going to make sense. That was the only bill that got to my desk. It really wasn’t going to improve anything. It was just going to create a bureaucracy that would be harmful.” […]

“Our team has been working feverishly, studying, talking, doing our due diligence on what other states have done, what’s the law here, and what it would do to our small shop owners,” the governor said after meeting with voters at Hugo’s Frog Bar in Naperville. “And we just decided it was going to create a big layer of burden and bureaucracy, and really not keep our communities safer. And so we decided let’s go ahead and veto the bill.”

* Background from the Tribune

Opponents had characterized the regulations as a government overreach, saying sellers are already licensed by the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, which requires background checks.

They noted that the state agency that would have to oversee licensing opposed it. Officials have raised concerns about the cost of launching the new rules, saying it would require more staff. They also noted that the agency has limited experience in administering and enforcing this type of program, as it typically oversees barbers, dentists, nurses and other professions.

Supporters contend federal regulators are stretched too thin to regulate all the shops operating in Illinois, and cited data that showed a large percentage of weapons found at crime scenes come from a handful of sellers.

  22 Comments      


Rauner veto react

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* There’s more react here from before the governor actually vetoed the gun dealer licensing bill. But I’ll be updating this post with react from now on, so check back. First up, Sen. Harmon…

State Senator Don Harmon (D-Oak Park) issued the following statement in response to Gov. Bruce Rauner’s veto of the Gun Dealer Licensing Act:

“The governor must be much more concerned about his immediate political prospects than we thought, because he decided to be a lap dog for the NRA today rather than listen to the people he represents.

“Eighty-five percent of Illinoisans support licensing gun dealers. Governor Rauner has decided to be the governor of the nine percent who don’t.

“Tomorrow, students across the country will stand up and beg elected officials to do their job and protect schools from gun violence. By issuing this veto on the eve of those demonstrations, the governor is telling them that he has no intention to live up to that responsibility.”

The bill passed with just 30 Senate votes and 64 House votes, so I kinda doubt it’ll be overriden. We’ll see.

* Speaking of the walkout…

Senator Melinda Bush will stand in solidarity with students across the country by leading a walkout against gun violence on Wednesday at the Capitol.

“We’re standing in solidarity to honor gun violence victims and let students across Illinois know that their voices matter and that we hear them,” said Bush (D-Grayslake). “The voices of these students have broken though partisan politics, and their actions have brought about commonsense conversations on gun safety.”

Who: Senators, staff, lobbyists, advocates and anyone who wishes to participate. Speakers will include Senator Bush, Senator Chris Nybo (R-Elmhurst) and Senator Jacqueline Collins (D-Chicago)

What: A 20-minute Capitol walkout and short program: 17 minutes for the Parkland victims, one minute for Chicago Police Commander Paul Bauer and two minutes for all victims of gun violence

Where: Participants will walk from east Capitol doors to the Abraham Lincoln statue for the program

When: 10 a.m. Wednesday, March 14

Why: To stand in solidarity with students across the country and in our districts who are calling for honest, bipartisan conversations about gun safety and to honor the victims in Parkland, Commander Paul Bauer and all victims of gun violence

* Gov. Pat Quinn…

Gov. Rauner’s veto of common-sense regulation of Illinois firearms dealers is appalling but not a surprise. Coming one week before our state’s primary election, it’s a reminder of the governor’s abdication of leadership, regardless of the harm done to all Illinois citizens.

I have worked tirelessly, in and out of office, to make our communities safe from gun violence. As Attorney General, I will challenge efforts by the Trump administration to weaken state regulations of firearms. There is no higher or more urgent calling for an office that must be the lawyer for everyday people and the guardian of their well-being.

* According to published reports, the NRA has contributed to Democratic Rep. Sam Yingling in the past and he’s been given an “A” rating. Here’s his statement…

I’m disappointed in Bruce Rauner’s veto of the common-sense gun safety reform measures outlined in SB1657. In a press release following his veto, the governor tried to offer “starting points” for having “serious conversations,” leading me to question whether the governor has been paying attention to the urgent national and local dialogues following the tragedy in Florida.

The conversations I have had with students, mothers, law enforcement officials, and community members in my district over the last few weeks have brought one fact into focus for me: reasonable gun safety measures promote responsible gun ownership and keep our schools and communities safe.

I will continue working with my colleagues in the legislature to send the governor common-sense gun safety bills. I hope he learns to listen to the people in my district and across Illinois who are demanding that we do better when it comes to protecting our children.

* Kathleen Sances, President and CEO of the Illinois Gun Violence Prevention PAC (GPAC)…

“This veto is a punch in the gut to victims of gun violence and their families who dedicated years of their lives to get this bill passed. The Gun Dealer Licensing Act had the potential to save thousands of lives and instead of following suit with cities like the Village of Lyons, which passed its own version of this legislation catching 51 guns in the first year and a half alone, the governor instead decided to stand shoulder to shoulder with the NRA. And now, thousands more lives might be lost because of his inaction.”

* Rep. Scott Drury…

“It is a sad day for Illinois when a governor puts his political interests ahead of the public interest. Yet, in vetoing the Gun Dealer Licensing Act, Governor Rauner did just that. Illinois is in the midst of a gun violence epidemic. The NRA constantly says that criminals – not guns – kill others. The Gun Dealer Licensing Act will keep guns out of the hands of criminals. As a co-sponsor of the Gun Dealer Licensing Act, I know this legislation could save lives. Governor Rauner failed Illinois today.”

* Jesse Ruiz…

Governor Rauner’s veto of the gun measure that would have required the state of Illinois to license gun dealers shows his complete lack of courage and failed leadership. With the number of mass shootings affecting our country, this measure was a step in the right direction by requiring dealers and employees to be trained to conduct background checks, stop thefts, properly store guns and prevent straw purchasing - all urgently needed reforms in Illinois. With the primary election upon us, let’s hope this frustration turns into action at the polls.

  26 Comments      


Rauner quickly pulls the trigger on gun bill veto

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Rauner vetoes onerous gun store regulation

Governor Bruce Rauner today vetoed Senate Bill 1657 saying that the bill created onerous, duplicative bureaucracy that does little to improve public safety. He noted that Illinois gun dealers are already licensed by the federal government and that 2,700 small businesses in the state would be jeopardized by the unnecessary new layer of state regulations.

As part of his veto message, Rauner was clear that the state is in desperate need of thoughtful, bipartisan public safety solutions to the larger more pervasive problems of crime prevention, school safety and mental health.

“The core issue is not which guns to legally ban or regulate,” he said. “We have ample proof that such narrowly focused legislative responses make for good political cover, but they do little to stop the illegal flow of guns into Illinois or prevent people from committing thousands of crimes in our state each year with illegal guns.”

The Governor said that to focus solely on guns exaggerates the divide in society over constitutional rights, when there is actually substantial common ground on which to build comprehensive solutions. He cited two common universal concerns: guns in the hands of criminals; and guns in the hands of the mentally ill.

“These are starting points that ought to bring us together for serious conversations about how to secure our schools, combat crime, and make everyone in Illinois safer,” Rauner said.

Since the tragedy in Parkland last month, Rauner insisted that bipartisan collaboration is the best hope of finding common sense solutions to gun violence.

He acted on that hope this afternoon by calling on the leaders of the Illinois House of Representatives and Senate to each appoint four members of their caucuses to a Legislative Public Safety Group. The Group would work with the administration to develop legislative proposals to support the following initiatives already underway in various agencies and units of the administration:

    School Safety – The Illinois Terrorism Task Force has convened a working group of officials from schools, police and fire agencies and they are developing strategies to protect against mass shootings. The Public Safety Group ought to be ready to suggest legislative actions to implement their recommendations.

    Mental Health – The Illinois Terrorism Task Force is also working to learn more about the complex intersection of mental health and gun violence, so parents, teachers, professionals and others can more effectively assess, detect, and report threats. The Public Safety Group will be valuable in ensuring the mental health community is fully engaged and legislation is sensitive to the complexities of dealing with diagnosis and treatment.

    Interstate Crime Prevention Network – A wide ranging law enforcement partnership with surrounding states is being explored to clamp down on illegal cross border trafficking and straw purchases, provide enhanced data collection and sharing, and establish protocols for threat detection, surveillance, and criminal apprehension. The Group should be in position to evaluate the arrangements as necessary.

    Repeat Gun Offenders – We must closely examine sentencing and bonding practices that allow repeat offenders to be released rather than incarcerated. Legislative remedies ought to be part of the Public Safety Group’s effort.

    Concentrated Crime Force Deployments – The state needs to expand its program of deploying law enforcement resources in high crime areas so that they can mobilize for all-out attacks on the crime industry. The Public Safety Group ought to be ready to endorse funding requirements for a larger force of state police officers.

    Economic Revitalization – The state’s most violent neighborhoods are also commercial deserts where the only discernible “business” is crime. As expanded force deployments push crime out of these neighborhoods, the state can direct focused business development resources on legitimate enterprise and job creation. The Group can accelerate the adoption of incentives to attract needed economic development programs.

“We have to work together to develop public safety solutions that truly make a difference,” Rauner said.

“Safety is not a partisan issue. It is an obligation, and we owe it to our citizens to come together to ensure their protection. I urge our legislators to join with me so we can get to work on this critical mission.”

  32 Comments      


Ives claims she’s within 10 points of Rauner

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* ABC 7

Ives expressed confidence in her chances.

“Well, we’re not going to reveal the specifics, but I will tell you that we believe we’re within 10 points of Gov. Rauner, which is phenomenal considering where we started,” [Rep. Jeanne Ives] said.

Rauner’s campaign declined to comment about Ives’ claims about polling.

That might explain some things (including maybe the gun bill veto threat) if it’s true, but I’ve called around and can’t confirm it. We’ll see if this smokes anyone out.

  50 Comments      


Pritzker unleashes the hounds on Kennedy with new ad

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Lots of chatter this week that undecideds are leaning Chris Kennedy’s way

Democratic gubernatorial candidate J.B. Pritzker in a new TV ad continues to hound rival Chris Kennedy for once praising Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner — as Kennedy in his own ad highlights his father and his “ideals.” […]

Kennedy, in January, opined that Rauner “should be applauded” for running attack ads against Pritzker before the Democratic primary. But then he took a step further in his praise for the embattled governor. […]

“We are running a positive campaign while J.B. Pritzker continues to run a negative campaign,” Kennedy spokeswoman Rebecca Evans said on Tuesday. “Chris has said repeatedly that Bruce Rauner threw a million people out of social services. That means he is inhumane. He went two years without a budget. That means he’s incompetent. He is running to defeat Bruce Rauner and his awful leadership.”

* And here it is

* Script…

Narrator: Listen to what Chris Kennedy recently had to say about Bruce Rauner:

Chris Kennedy: Bruce Rauner is trying to do what he thinks is best for the state of Illinois.

Narrator: What?

Chris Kennedy: His willingness to speak truth to power to take on the powers that have been strangling our economy for decades in the state, is something that I think he should be applauded for.

Narrator: Don’t we need a Democrat who can stand up to Bruce Rauner?

Chris Kennedy: That I think he should be applauded for.

  34 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Afternoon roundup: Voting; Silverstein; Breen; Sente; Soto; Currie

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Rauner on Pritzker: “We are gonna blow him up and take him down”

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From Gov. Bruce Rauner’s interview on WJPF Radio this morning

I’m the one person who can beat JB Pritzker and Madigan and I will beat JB Pritzker and Madigan.

Pritzker, I know him. He’s a tax dodger, he hides his money in the Cayman Islands, he rips toilets out of mansions he buys, so he doesn’t have to pay the full property taxes on them. He tried to buy a Senate seat from Blagojevich. We are gonna blow him up and take him down. We are gonna beat him. He’s Madigan’s handpicked candidate.

If Pritzker were to win, it would turn out the lights in Illinois. And I’m gonna pound him, we’re gonna beat him. And I’m excited to do it.

And there’s your fall campaign preview, campers. Somebody better get some smelling salts for a certain Tribune columnist.

  95 Comments      


Traffic stop data is an important tool for police and the public

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Advertising Department

[The following is a paid advertisement.]

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Not a good look

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I could do caption contests on all of these pics. Here’s one of Pritzker that Mark Maxwell recently tweeted

* From a JB Pritzker press release…

* And here’s a screen grab of mine from a Biss campaign video

  47 Comments      


More Kennedy nuance, this time on pensions

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* WCIA’s Mark Maxwell

Kennedy said “we can’t afford to allow” a portion of the Biss pension bill that he said would “negatively affect” faculty at the University of Illinois. Kennedy chaired the Board of Trustees at the time, and posted a video to YouTube with a message crafted to ease concerns among tenured faculty who had grown worried they would see their pension benefits significantly downgraded.

An error in the legislation would have forced 4,000 university faculty into a difficult corner: either abruptly retire or see their monthly pension benefits slashed by up to 30 percent. As board chairman, Kennedy apologized to faculty for allowing it to reach that point, then promised to engage with the legislature and resolve the issue. The error was corrected soon after, preventing the threat of what he called a “brain drain” — a mass exodus of tenured professors whose exits would have cost the university federal grant dollars too.

At the start of that video message, Kennedy also said that “pension reform was needed.”

Does that mean Kennedy supported the Biss pension bill before he opposed it?

“No way,” the campaign responded. In the same video, Kennedy says “The bill had lots of parts, not all of which were fully vetted.”

In response to our inquiry, Kennedy’s campaign produced emails he sent to colleagues in 2014 where he analyzed the pension changes as destructive to the working poor, an affront to a safety net that people had earned during their careers, and he criticized the state legislature for historically failing to pay the pension obligation, a move he said effectively stripped public schools of state funding and resulted in higher property taxes.

* Pritzker campaign…

As a candidate for governor, Chris Kennedy is attacking Dan Biss for his unconstitutional pension theft bill, but when he was the chair of the University of Illinois’ board of trustees, Kennedy supported that same legislation.

In a 2014 clip, Kennedy said “pension reform was needed,” in context of Biss’ recently-passed bill in Springfield. Pension benefits for 467,000 state workers, including teachers and nurses, would have been cut under the unconstitutional bill that Dan Biss wrote and Chris Kennedy supported.

“Chris Kennedy was all in for a pension bill that slashed retirement for hundreds of thousands of working families,” said Pritzker campaign spokeswoman Jordan Abudayyeh. “But now that Kennedy is running for office, he can’t pretend to be a friend to working families when it’s clear where he stood when it really mattered.”

Quite a bit over the top there, but it’s a week before election day.

  43 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** POLL: 57 percent of Chicagoans say city is on wrong track, will vote to replace underwater Emanuel

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Melissa Harris…

On Tuesday through Thursday of last week, Max Temkin and I fielded our second Temkin/Harris Poll.

Much has stayed the same with this poll:

We hired veteran pollster Jill Normington of Normington Petts in Washington, D.C., to conduct the survey. (Jill is Tammy Duckworth’s pollster.) The sample size is 500 (includes cell phones); the error rate is +/- 4.4%.

We polled registered voters versus likely voters. This gives us a sample that is slightly younger, more Hispanic and less African American than people who typically vote. However, we’re also able to say, using this methodology, that the results represent the views of a broader swath of Chicagoans. So please view this as a public opinion poll, and do not use it to predict election winners.

The top-line results are attached to this email; below is a summary of the headlines.

Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s favorability and re-elect numbers “are still terrible but a little better than before,” Jill said.

The Police Department’s favorability has gone up due to significant improvement among African Americans. In fact, favorability is now net positive among this group (50/29).

Not surprisingly, J.B. Pritzker’s name recognition has shot up to three-quarters of Chicagoans from two-thirds since September. Somewhat surprisingly, his favorability among African Americans and Chicagoans overall has increased since September.

And finally, several new, exciting topics in this poll: the express train to O’Hare; tax breaks for Amazon; legalizing the use of recreational marijuana; and an elected school board.

Chicagoans support an express train to O’Hare, no matter what part of the city they live in, whether they have a college degree or not, or whether they’re conservative or liberal. And note the high intensity of the positive: Nearly half of Chicago registered voters polled are strongly in favor of this idea.

And finally, the answer that most surprised us: Strong support for tax breaks for Amazon (59% in favor; 25% opposed). “There is a little bit of an age pattern with people over 60 more likely to be opposed, but there is no partisan bent. Democrats and Republicans are within six points of each other, and it is rare for them to be that close on anything,” Jill told us.

You can read my full analysis at mharris.com and Max’s at maxistentialism.com, which hilariously chronicles a cease-and-desist letter we received after the last poll. We will conduct our next poll in the fall just prior to the general election.

The poll is here.

* Not great news for Mayor Emanuel

Would you say things in Chicago are generally headed in the RIGHT DIRECTION or would you say things are pretty seriously off on the WRONG TRACK?

    RIGHT DIRECTION 28%
    WRONG TRACK 57%
    (DON’T KNOW) 15%

If the 2019 general election for Mayor of Chicago were held today, would you vote to RE-ELECT Rahm Emanuel to another term as Mayor or would you vote to REPLACE him with someone else?

    DEFINITELY RE-ELECT 13%
    PROBABLY RE-ELECT 15
    DEFINITELY REPLACE 17
    PROBABLY REPLACE 40
    (DON’T KNOW) 16

    TOTAL RE-ELECT 27%
    TOTAL REPLACE 57%

President Trump was at 12% favorable, 82% unfavorable. Gov. Rauner was at 17% favorable, 62% unfavorable. Mayor Emanuel was at 36% favorable, 42% unfavorable. And JB Pritzker was at 35% favorable, 24% unfavorable. Lots of undecideds on that last one, which is what we’re seeing in other polls.

Meanwhile, 59% supported “The tax breaks and incentives offered by Chicago to
bring in an Amazon headquarters,” while 25% opposed. Another 66% supported “Making recreational marijuana legal in Chicago,” while 27% were opposed. And 83% supported “Having the Chicago School Board be elected instead of being appointed by the mayor,” while just 10% were opposed.

*** UPDATE *** Text message from a Rahm campaign guy…

Hey Rich, read your post on the Chicago poll. I do not think this poll is grounded in reality. Important to point out that a November GE electorate is fundamentally different than a 2019 municipal electorate. If you look at the demographic makeup of this poll it skews much younger than a typical November electorate let alone a municipal electorate. The racial makeup is also significantly off. Beyond these points, this poll does not reflect what we are seeing with our own internal numbers or numbers that have been reported from other campaigns.

  58 Comments      


Martin Sheen narrates newly voiced Kennedy ad

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

Chris Kennedy’s campaign for Governor released the following ad today, narrated by Martin Sheen. The ad highlights Chris Kennedy’s values and family history. The ad will run statewide, across multiple markets.

…Adding… This is the same ad as last week’s “Ideals” ad with a new narrator, so the headline was changed.

* The ad

* Script…

RFK: “Few will have the greatness to bend history …. generation.”

Narrator: Chris Kennedy’s father fought for civil rights, equality and fairness

RFK: of all those acts will be written the history of this generation…

Narrator: Today, the fight lives on in Chris’s campaign for Governor. To take on a broken political system. Endorsed by Newspapers across the State as Authentic and Independent… Kennedy will be an Anti-establishment Governor with a progressive agenda. And the vision to reshape Illinois.

  22 Comments      


Rate the new anti-Quinn ad

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As I told you yesterday, the Fight Back for a Better Tomorrow PAC, which is administered by top officials at Operating Engineers Local 150, filed a B-1 for $675,000 in spending on a TV ad attacking Pat Quinn. As subscribers know, there was a bit of a glitch with the spot, but it’s fixed now. Have a look

My own opinion is that this ad isn’t tough enough to move numbers. But, hey, I could be wrong. Let us know what you think.

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Rauner, ILGOP attack Pritzker on Berrios, Blagojevich

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rauner campaign…

Berrios’ record of cheating taxpayers in favor of the wealthy and politically-connected is catching up with him. On Monday, the Chicago Tribune and Crain’s reported that Illinois Democrats are fleeing from the Cook County Assessor.

Most Democratic candidates for statewide office — including Chris Kennedy, Daniel Biss, and the Attorney General candidates with the exception of Kwame Raoul, Berrios’ co-chair of the Cook County Democrats — have openly criticized Berrios for his corrupt practices.

But JB Pritzker remains silent. He claims that he won’t ‘foment a war between Democrats,’ and he has refused to criticize Berrios just as he has avoided almost any critique of Madigan.

In the face of outright corruption, Pritzker chooses to remain silent and defend the politicians who have thrown their support behind him in his run for governor.

We talked about the Crain’s story yesterday. The Tribune story, about an attorney general forum, is here.

* ILGOP…

It is undeniable that J.B. Pritzker and disgraced former governor Rod Blagojevich have been “bosom buddies” for decades.

Pritzker fundraised for Blagojevich’s run for Congress in 1996 and Blagojevich helped Pritzker in his failed run in 1998. Pritzker joined Blagojevich’s $25,000 Club with a large campaign check, and Blagojevich later appointed Pritzker to head Illinois’ Human Rights Commission. Then there’s the infamous FBI wiretaps between Pritzker and Blagojevich published by the Chicago Tribune, and that only scratches the surface.

Blagojevich and Pritzker were so close, Blagojevich swooned over Pritzker as early as 1998, talking of his “tremendous future” in politics and comparing him to President Abraham Lincoln.

From yesterday’s profile in the Chicago Tribune:

    …He finished third with 20 percent of the vote in a 1998 primary won by Jan Schakowsky, who still holds the seat. Pritzker got campaign help from workers allied with former 33rd Ward Ald. Richard Mell, the father-in-law of future Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Two years earlier, Pritzker had helped Blagojevich win his congressional seat.

    “This was a good first start and I think J.B. has a tremendous future,” Blagojevich said in a May 1998 Tribune profile of Pritzker. “Remember, Abraham Lincoln didn’t win his first election, and Mario Cuomo lost several races before he got elected. For J.B., this is only the beginning.”

  11 Comments      


Union-backed Pritzker criticized for not supporting grad student unions

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Sen. Daniel Biss has been issuing statements of support for graduate student unionization efforts throughout his campaign. JB Pritzker showed up to a picket line at UIUC the other day. WCIA TV’s Mark Maxwell’s report

Billionaire philanthropist J.B. Pritzker who inherited much of his wealth gave a record $100 million donation to Northwestern University in 2015. A graduate student who teaches there says that gift should have come with conditions that the administration acknowledges the graduate student union.

“I live paycheck to paycheck because graduate stipends are barely sufficient to pay my rent, living expenses, and my student loans,” says Jessica Creery, a Ph.D., candidate who says her medical research on epilepsy and Alzheimer’s yielded five million dollars in grant money for the school.

When an accounting error interrupted her paycheck last fall, she says her life nearly went into a tailspin. […]

Creery, who is supporting Daniel Biss in the Democratic primary race, criticized Pritzker for not publicly supporting the efforts of the Northwestern Union Graduate Workers — a union group the school does not yet recognize in collective bargaining.

* Maxwell caught up to Pritzker

Reporter: Your name adorns the campuses at Northwestern and University of Chicago, you’re a donor there. How would you describe your clout on those campuses and how have you used that to support unions, because unionization efforts have been resisted on those two campuses? What would you say about those efforts?

Pritzker: Well, I don’t know about the University of Chicago because I have not been involved at all there. At Northwestern, I’m an alumnus of Northwestern Law School, I’m proud of my own work there and also of the work they do to train lawyers and much of the program that I supported at Northwestern was really aimed at the Center on Wrongful Convictions, at the um… and the organizations that are standing up for our immigrants…

Reporter: But on unionization there?

Pritzker: I have not at all been involved in that.

It goes on for a while longer. Have a look.

…Adding… Pritzker campaign spokeswoman Galia Slayen…

J.B. stands firmly on the side of graduate students in their fight to unionize and has put forward real plans in this campaign to put Springfield back on the side of working families. That’s why J.B. is the only candidate endorsed by the IFT, IEA, statewide Illinois AFL-CIO, and over 30 individual unions and he looks forward to standing with them as governor to defend our labor movement and help workers in Illinois thrive.

  31 Comments      


*** LIVE *** Session coverage

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The House isn’t in this week. Senate committees started at 9 and the chamber convenes at noon. The House’s Human Services Appropriations Committee meets this afternoon in Chicago. Watch it all in real time with ScribbleLive


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Biss wants to back insurgent state central committee candidates

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune

Democratic governor candidate Daniel Biss is exploring ways to help insurgent candidates for the state party’s leadership committee and challenge House Speaker Michael Madigan’s chairmanship.

A Biss aide said the state senator from Evanston has talked with campaign attorneys about what fundraising mechanism could be used to assist challengers to about a dozen members the Democratic State Central Committee.

The 36-member panel elects the party chairman. It’s made up of one man and one woman from each of Illinois’ 18 congressional districts, and the seats are on the primary ballot.

There were no details yet on whether any arrangement had been made. Madigan has been actively backing current committee members seeking re-election.

Many of these candidates haven’t even set up campaign committees. Speaker Madigan just disclosed spending more money against Rockford-area candidates Art Bardsley and Elizabeth Lindquist, but neither have committees. You can’t contribute to candidates if they don’t have official bank accounts. So, either they’ll have to set up committees ASAP, or Biss will have to establish an independent expenditure committee and then do all the work of sending out mailers, or radio ads or whatever else he plans to do.

Anyone else have any ideas what he could do (besides spend any money he raises on himself, of course)?

  23 Comments      


*** UPDATED x4 - DGA, Cullerton, Biss, Kennedy blast Rauner - Prizker says Rauner “cares more about winning his primary than doing his job” - Emanuel: Veto is “slap in the face to crime victims, faith leaders and police” *** Rauner now says he’ll veto gun dealer licensing bill

Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* So, he goes through that long, dodging dance yesterday and refuses to answer Chicago reporter questions about whether he’ll sign the gun dealer licensing bill, then goes on a southern Illinois radio station early this morning to say he’ll veto it. Here’s Tina Sfondeles

Despite Democratic pressure from Mayor Rahm Emanuel and gubernatorial rivals just days before the primary election, Gov. Bruce Rauner on Tuesday said he plans to veto a gun measure that would have required the state to license gun dealers.

In an interview with WJPF radio station in southern Illinois, Rauner said he’ll veto the measure, while also calling on the four legislative leaders to appoint members to a public safety commission to talk about mental health and school safety, according to the governor’s office.

The governor’s office said Rauner will veto the bill later Tuesday.

Asked what he’d do about the bill on Monday, Rauner repeatedly said he favored a “comprehensive solution,” without answering what he’d do with it.

The full interview is here.

*** UPDATE 1 *** Press release…

Statement from Mayor Emanuel on Governor Rauner Plan to Veto Gun Dealer Licensing Act

With one week left in his campaign, Governor Rauner just put his primary election ahead of his primary responsibility to protect the safety of the people of Chicago and Illinois. The governor’s decision was cruel, it was cold and it was calculated to benefit his own politics at the expense of public safety. This veto is a slap in the face to crime victims, faith leaders and police who have pleaded with Governor Rauner to protect public safety by signing the Gun Dealer Licensing Act. This failure will be his legacy.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Pritzker campaign…

“With daily gun violence ravaging our communities and tragic mass shootings plaguing our country, Bruce Rauner has decided to veto a commonsense bill that will keep children and families safe from gun violence,” said JB Pritzker. “High schoolers are leading a nationwide movement and parents in our state are demanding change, but Bruce Rauner has provided nothing but empty rhetoric and absent leadership. This is a governor who is telling children across the state that he cares more about winning his primary than doing his job to protect them. Illinoisans deserve a governor who will treat gun violence like a public health epidemic and take charge to stop these countless tragedies, and that’s the governor I’ll be.”

*** UPDATE 3 *** Sen. Daniel Biss…

“After weeks of waffling on this critical issue, carefully weighing political consequences in the absence of any moral conviction, Bruce Rauner has announced he’ll veto a bill I cosponsored to stem the flow of illegal guns in our communities. After decades of school shootings across the country and decades more of gun violence ravaging the City of Chicago and the State of Illinois, people are coming together to demand change. Except Bruce Rauner, apparently. Instead of standing up to do what’s right, he’s putting his fealty to the NRA first, once again proving himself a coward incapable of governing.”

* Chris Kennedy…

Governor Rauner has again put his own political survival above the safety and security of our schools, our communities and our families. This disgusting veto represents everything that is wrong with Springfield where political preservation comes before the citizens our elected leaders are supposed to serve. Governor Rauner made this decision to win a primary but the consequences of it will cost him in November. Students across Illinois will walk out of class tomorrow to protest this decision and urge our elected leaders to take action to prevent the next shooting. I stand with those students. Springfield has abandoned its leadership role in our state and it’s the students who are showing us the way forward.

*** UPDATE 4 *** Senate President Cullerton…

“I urge Governor Rauner to reconsider his actions. It’s not too late. He’s regretted hasty vetoes in the past. Don’t add to that unfortunate collection. He knows this is a good law, one needed to increase safety in Illinois. I would urge Governor Rauner to think this through and do what’s responsible as opposed to what’s political. At the very least, take the time to do another poll before such drastic action.”

* DGA…

“Bruce Rauner failed as a leader, today,” said DGA Illinois Communications Director Sam Salustro. “Families from all over the state have had enough with gun violence and called on Rauner to take a leadership role in protecting them. Instead, they got a stream of empty rhetoric and platitudes, and the confirmation that Rauner will never stand up to the NRA.”

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Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

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